Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 8 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 January 2012, Everton vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        20   48  +40      86.38     5.51    63.33    60.06    91.80    98.13    99.61   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   45  +29      84.23     5.26    54.01    36.44    85.83    96.41    99.26    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       19   42  +16      74.14     6.03    25.48     2.30    12.31    47.43    74.86    97.80     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   37  +14      72.62     5.59    31.97     1.02     7.57    38.13    69.85    97.45     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   36   +8      68.29     5.93    20.40     0.15     1.96    13.74    35.19    88.54     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   34   +6      65.22     5.86    15.51     0.02     0.49     5.39    17.41    75.97     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       20   33   +4      59.60     5.94     6.61     0.00     0.04     0.74     3.58    32.25     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           20   29   -9      49.63     5.67   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.76     0.41R    0.01  
Norwich         20   25   -5      43.73     5.80   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.28     4.98R    0.38  
Sunderland      20   24   +4      46.77     5.84     0.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.85     1.33R    0.07  
Everton         19   24   -2      50.39     6.12    -1.61     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     3.35     0.36R    0.02  
Swansea         20   23   -3      42.97     5.71    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     5.65R    0.49  
Aston_Villa     20   23   -4      46.15     5.87    -6.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.64     2.05R    0.13  
Fulham          20   23   -4      47.25     5.79    -4.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.87     1.17R    0.07  
West_Brom       20   22   -9      42.98     5.73   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     6.68R    0.57  
Wolverhampton   20   17  -14      35.56     5.66   -24.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.11R    9.91  
QPR             20   17  -16      33.65     5.40   -29.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.47R   17.18  
Bolton          20   16  -18      35.23     5.67   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.78R   12.04  
Wigan           20   15  -23      30.40     5.26   -39.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.10R   41.04  
Blackburn       20   14  -14      33.32     5.67   -24.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.91R   18.09  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 January 2012, Bristol_City vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      25   47  +19      80.97     6.64    26.97    24.15    47.04    90.34    58.18P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   47  +17      83.50     6.60    28.38    38.96    62.35    94.94    72.27P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          25   45  +14      80.54     6.53    24.20    21.48    43.46    89.29    56.24P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    25   45   +7      75.76     6.39    10.18     5.81    15.74    68.12    26.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          25   39   +7      72.10     6.51    13.28     2.15     6.91    48.12    18.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Hull             25   39   +1      68.37     6.27     2.22     0.50     1.96    23.83     6.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool        25   38   +8      72.64     6.75    16.75     3.07     9.27    52.44    21.23P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United     25   38   +3      68.70     6.54     5.95     0.69     2.62    27.55     7.66P    0.11R    0.01  
Derby            25   37   -3      62.88     6.36    -7.40     0.04     0.24     6.38     1.18P    1.03R    0.03  
Burnley          25   36   +4      65.92     6.53     5.44     0.27     1.12    16.06     4.41P    0.30R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   25   36   +0      62.00     6.23    -3.45     0.02     0.18     5.01     0.94P    1.25R    0.05  
Leicester        25   35   +5      65.08     6.54     6.79     0.16     0.82    13.77     3.90P    0.46R    0.02  
Brighton         25   35   -2      61.19     6.45    -5.56     0.01     0.15     4.27     0.84P    2.00R    0.09  
Birmingham       23   34   +6      71.71     7.01    14.96     2.59     7.69    46.95    19.49P    0.06R    0.00  
Peterborough     25   33   +3      61.15     6.85     1.07     0.05     0.20     5.73     1.17P    2.72R    0.16  
Barnsley         25   33   -3      57.51     6.37    -9.57     0.01     0.04     1.21     0.22P    6.42R    0.43  
Portsmouth       24   31   +2      60.80     6.59     1.72     0.04     0.19     4.58     1.15P    2.24R    0.12  
Watford          25   30   -7      55.99     6.46   -11.53     0.00     0.02     0.78     0.16P   10.39R    0.88  
Bristol_City     25   27  -11      52.51     6.35   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   23.11R    3.21  
Ipswich          24   27  -13      52.18     6.62   -21.13     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   26.97R    4.01  
Millwall         25   26   -4      52.97     6.37    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   19.28R    2.40  
Nott'm_Forest    25   24  -18      50.01     6.30   -21.93     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   38.39R    6.83  
Doncaster        25   22  -21      42.43     6.00   -33.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.67R   42.32  
Coventry         25   19  -14      42.30     6.12   -21.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.50R   39.42  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 January 2012, Carlisle vs Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        24   54  +30      94.66     6.76    46.07    58.71    79.81    99.90    85.80P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       24   49  +14      85.28     6.95    23.18     8.58    25.92    95.77    40.84P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    25   47  +26      86.61     6.51    42.69    12.67    36.13    98.03    58.51P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       24   47  +18      86.54     6.93    32.30    12.37    34.27    97.34    53.45P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         24   46  +23      84.28     6.84    35.34     7.55    23.07    95.53    42.86P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        25   41   +2      71.33     6.70     3.99     0.08     0.45    38.41     6.14P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage       24   38  +12      68.03     6.86    12.01     0.02     0.19    23.53     3.98P    0.06R    0.00  
Brentford       25   36   +1      64.84     6.59     1.02     0.00     0.03    10.53     1.75P    0.27R    0.00  
Bournemouth     25   34   -1      64.01     6.65     0.71     0.00     0.03     8.53     1.55P    0.47R    0.00  
Bury            24   34   -4      60.70     6.81    -9.82     0.00     0.01     3.64     0.39P    2.05R    0.04  
Notts_County    24   32   +3      62.37     6.86     3.15     0.00     0.01     6.54     0.98P    1.02R    0.01  
Colchester      24   32   -4      62.39     6.90    -3.96     0.00     0.01     5.88     0.93P    1.24R    0.02  
Hartlepool      25   32   -4      57.60     6.44    -8.92     0.00     0.00     1.17     0.15P    4.34R    0.08  
Preston         24   32   -5      64.02     7.16    -2.57     0.01     0.04     9.83     1.90P    0.81R    0.01  
Oldham          24   31   -4      58.84     6.74    -7.75     0.00     0.01     2.14     0.30P    3.57R    0.06  
Leyton_Orient   25   31  -10      57.86     6.61   -13.23     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.16P    5.17R    0.12  
Tranmere        24   30   -3      58.42     6.71    -5.46     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.26P    4.14R    0.11  
Exeter          25   25  -15      48.03     6.32   -24.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   43.06R    3.87  
Scunthorpe      24   23   -7      52.08     6.96    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P   20.53R    1.45  
Walsall         25   23   -7      48.24     6.43   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   38.41R    3.74  
Yeovil          24   21  -11      46.33     6.60   -18.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    51.75R    7.28  
Wycombe         25   20  -18      42.09     6.42   -28.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.75R   21.11  
Rochdale        24   20  -18      46.19     6.69   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   54.25R    8.33  
Chesterfield    25   16  -18      37.09     6.39   -31.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.10R   53.79  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 January 2012, Aldershot vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Crawley_Town         24   50  +18      84.08     7.05    23.94    21.37    58.63    92.27    65.84P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             24   49  +21      86.76     6.82    32.53    37.01    74.43    96.97    80.81P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           24   49  +16      80.92     6.84    18.58    10.19    39.17    84.58    47.62P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              24   43  +19      83.39     6.76    34.21    20.26    58.07    92.65    70.85P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   42  +11      78.08     6.79    19.70     4.97    25.43    74.39    39.43P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           24   41  +12      76.86     6.83    20.71     3.83    20.73    69.44    33.72P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   41  +12      72.15     6.59    15.63     0.65     6.29    41.91    14.11P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   40   +0      66.78     6.61    -3.51     0.07     1.04    14.03     3.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   39   +8      70.45     6.63    12.05     0.40     3.99    31.73    10.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Torquay              24   38   +6      71.24     6.85    10.59     0.58     5.44    35.94    12.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            24   37   +5      70.99     6.90    10.74     0.56     5.01    35.00    12.31P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            25   35  +10      64.12     6.62    10.36     0.03     0.53     9.04     2.30P    0.04R    0.01  
Port_Vale            25   35   +5      66.64     6.59     9.29     0.06     1.03    15.35     4.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                25   33   -5      62.87     6.68    -3.56     0.01     0.20     5.51     1.47P    0.15R    0.03  
Macclesfield         24   30   -3      56.28     6.59    -8.64     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.10P    1.62R    0.45  
Aldershot            24   27   -8      54.62     6.71   -11.66     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.09P    3.27R    1.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   26  -16      47.43     6.49   -30.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   23.75R   11.37  
Bradford             24   25   -5      51.23     6.67   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    8.45R    3.19  
Bristol_Rovers       24   23  -17      49.11     6.79   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   16.14R    7.32  
Barnet               24   23  -17      45.61     6.43   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.14R   16.69  
Hereford             24   22  -16      45.05     6.41   -26.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.93R   18.69  
Dag_&_Red            24   21  -16      48.67     6.83   -19.98     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   17.43R    8.19  
Northampton          25   21  -19      45.93     6.47   -25.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.22R   15.06  
Plymouth             25   18  -21      45.25     6.67   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.85R   17.95  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 January 2012, AFC_Telford vs Kettering; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            26   59  +31      96.31     6.09    46.36    55.24    99.71    68.51P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     26   57  +27      92.14     6.30    39.28    24.66    97.86    41.85P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              27   51  +30      90.75     5.63    52.95    18.57    97.83    52.50P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   49  +28      81.33     5.83    39.95     0.78    70.17    17.30P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      27   49  +14      79.45     6.23    20.75     0.55    53.92     8.94P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          28   48   -5      70.28     6.01    -9.42     0.00     7.00     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          27   47   +6      74.39     6.19     7.79     0.05    21.49     2.12P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   46  +14      75.93     6.15    19.83     0.13    30.83     5.20P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   42   +9      70.50     6.21    12.64     0.01     8.55     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            27   41   +9      70.98     6.17    15.17     0.01    10.50     1.75P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             27   41   +4      65.11     6.11     0.74     0.00     1.56     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       28   38  +11      61.36     5.87     9.12     0.00     0.32     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     28   38   -3      59.71     6.05    -8.62     0.00     0.16     0.01P    0.06R    0.00  
Tamworth           25   34   -4      56.63     6.26   -14.14     0.00     0.09     0.00P    0.36R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   31   -3      54.65     6.22    -7.26     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.04R    0.05  
Darlington         28   27   -5      53.21     5.88    -2.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.57R    0.07  
AFC_Telford        28   27  -13      47.30     6.02   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.48R    1.39  
Lincoln_City       28   26  -15      52.28     6.06   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.96R    0.23  
Stockport          28   23  -18      46.58     6.01   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.45R    2.13  
Newport_County     27   22  -10      47.37     6.15   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.56R    1.45  
Alfreton_Town      28   22  -29      36.60     5.36   -48.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.07R   39.14  
Kettering          28   22  -35      40.49     5.65   -45.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.93R   14.77  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   21  -21      40.26     5.83   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.48R   14.71  
Bath_City          27   18  -22      38.10     5.87   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.03R   26.05  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10