Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 7 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 January 2012, Everton vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        20   48  +40      86.35     5.50    63.36    59.95    91.73    97.99    99.57   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   45  +29      84.23     5.24    54.05    36.41    85.56    96.38    99.20    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       19   42  +16      74.22     6.05    25.53     2.42    12.36    47.52    74.82    97.79     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   37  +14      72.73     5.61    32.15     0.98     7.66    38.46    70.34    97.49     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   36   +8      68.37     5.91    20.58     0.21     2.13    13.69    35.25    88.82     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   34   +6      65.23     5.86    15.52     0.03     0.52     5.16    17.19    75.88     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       20   33   +4      59.55     5.94     6.57     0.00     0.04     0.77     3.45    31.71     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           20   29   -9      49.60     5.64   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.80     0.37R    0.01  
Norwich         20   25   -5      43.56     5.77   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     5.22R    0.38  
Sunderland      20   24   +4      46.76     5.84     0.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.97     1.28R    0.07  
Everton         19   24   -2      50.34     6.14    -1.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     3.34     0.37R    0.03  
Swansea         20   23   -3      42.85     5.69   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     5.82R    0.43  
Aston_Villa     20   23   -4      46.13     5.86    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72     2.01R    0.11  
Fulham          20   23   -4      47.41     5.78    -4.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.94     1.05R    0.04  
West_Brom       20   22   -9      43.10     5.78   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     6.43R    0.63  
Wolverhampton   20   17  -14      35.63     5.64   -24.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.46R    9.68  
QPR             20   17  -16      33.64     5.41   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.88R   17.04  
Bolton          20   16  -18      35.24     5.67   -28.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.70R   11.71  
Wigan           20   15  -23      30.32     5.25   -39.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.34R   41.55  
Blackburn       20   14  -14      33.30     5.64   -24.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.07R   18.33  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 January 2012, Bristol_City vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      25   47  +19      80.94     6.65    26.96    24.51    46.88    90.04    58.13P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   47  +17      83.50     6.59    28.41    38.95    62.56    95.11    72.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          25   45  +14      80.48     6.55    24.11    21.36    43.42    89.04    56.11P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    25   45   +7      75.75     6.43    10.15     5.91    15.96    68.37    27.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          25   39   +7      71.91     6.48    12.96     1.94     6.78    47.12    17.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Hull             25   39   +1      68.35     6.26     2.19     0.43     1.81    23.81     6.16P    0.07R    0.00  
Blackpool        25   38   +8      72.62     6.81    16.71     3.28     9.51    52.66    21.33P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds_United     25   38   +3      68.67     6.55     5.88     0.72     2.74    27.72     7.71P    0.10R    0.00  
Derby            25   37   -3      62.84     6.39    -7.44     0.03     0.22     6.54     1.22P    1.15R    0.03  
Burnley          25   36   +4      66.07     6.52     5.68     0.26     1.14    16.74     4.49P    0.27R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   25   36   +0      61.91     6.25    -3.52     0.03     0.16     4.93     0.98P    1.30R    0.05  
Leicester        25   35   +5      65.09     6.53     6.79     0.15     0.82    13.90     3.93P    0.43R    0.01  
Brighton         25   35   -2      61.13     6.46    -5.62     0.03     0.11     4.36     0.89P    2.16R    0.10  
Birmingham       23   34   +6      71.62     6.96    14.86     2.33     7.48    46.61    19.09P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough     25   33   +3      61.19     6.82     1.10     0.04     0.22     5.68     1.26P    2.54R    0.16  
Barnsley         25   33   -3      57.45     6.33    -9.68     0.00     0.02     1.19     0.17P    6.45R    0.38  
Portsmouth       24   31   +2      60.95     6.60     1.94     0.03     0.17     4.76     1.17P    2.20R    0.12  
Watford          25   30   -7      56.11     6.41   -11.31     0.00     0.01     0.76     0.14P    9.98R    0.88  
Bristol_City     25   27  -11      52.69     6.32   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   22.45R    2.97  
Ipswich          24   27  -13      52.21     6.63   -21.09     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   27.25R    4.15  
Millwall         25   26   -4      53.02     6.37    -6.12     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.06P   19.25R    2.42  
Nott'm_Forest    25   24  -18      49.97     6.27   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   38.90R    6.91  
Doncaster        25   22  -21      42.41     6.03   -33.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.71R   42.48  
Coventry         25   19  -14      42.30     6.09   -21.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.70R   39.32  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 January 2012, Carlisle vs Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        24   54  +30      94.48     6.72    45.74    58.53    79.67    99.85    85.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       24   49  +14      85.16     6.93    23.04     8.57    25.68    95.61    40.95P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    25   47  +26      86.39     6.53    42.33    12.64    35.47    97.89    57.67P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       24   47  +18      86.51     6.88    32.22    12.41    34.26    97.47    53.41P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         24   46  +23      84.37     6.82    35.43     7.73    24.06    95.59    43.65P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        25   41   +2      71.26     6.74     3.92     0.07     0.50    37.76     6.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage       24   38  +12      68.24     6.87    12.27     0.03     0.23    24.43     4.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Brentford       25   36   +1      64.84     6.56     1.05     0.01     0.04    10.21     1.55P    0.29R    0.00  
Bournemouth     25   34   -1      64.03     6.68     0.70     0.00     0.02     8.63     1.53P    0.43R    0.01  
Bury            24   34   -4      60.82     6.86    -9.60     0.00     0.01     3.67     0.41P    1.96R    0.02  
Notts_County    24   32   +3      62.56     6.87     3.39     0.00     0.01     6.79     1.03P    0.88R    0.01  
Colchester      24   32   -4      62.47     6.90    -3.78     0.00     0.01     6.18     0.93P    1.16R    0.01  
Hartlepool      25   32   -4      57.66     6.52    -8.86     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.19P    4.52R    0.12  
Preston         24   32   -5      64.00     7.14    -2.62     0.01     0.04     9.76     1.89P    0.83R    0.02  
Oldham          24   31   -4      58.71     6.72    -7.86     0.00     0.00     1.94     0.31P    3.67R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient   25   31  -10      57.92     6.54   -13.09     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.17P    4.70R    0.12  
Tranmere        24   30   -3      58.50     6.67    -5.34     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.27P    3.74R    0.09  
Exeter          25   25  -15      48.08     6.41   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    43.00R    3.99  
Scunthorpe      24   23   -7      52.01     6.97    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   20.78R    1.52  
Walsall         25   23   -7      48.00     6.48   -12.85     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    40.00R    3.94  
Yeovil          24   21  -11      46.45     6.62   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   50.99R    6.92  
Wycombe         25   20  -18      42.04     6.45   -28.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.66R   21.41  
Rochdale        24   20  -18      46.13     6.63   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   54.28R    8.30  
Chesterfield    25   16  -18      37.14     6.39   -31.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.04R   53.47  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 January 2012, Aldershot vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Crawley_Town         24   50  +18      84.16     7.09    24.07    22.31    58.68    92.55    65.89P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             24   49  +20      86.34     6.80    30.88    34.67    72.33    96.37    79.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           24   49  +16      80.93     6.80    18.61    10.39    39.00    85.04    47.23P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              24   43  +19      83.40     6.74    34.26    20.26    58.39    92.66    70.89P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   42  +12      78.29     6.80    21.04     5.66    26.55    75.60    40.78P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           24   41  +12      76.91     6.86    20.79     4.00    21.16    68.96    34.42P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   41  +12      72.28     6.57    15.79     0.78     6.55    42.47    14.56P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   40   +0      66.57     6.61    -3.82     0.10     1.06    13.20     3.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   39   +8      70.50     6.62    12.11     0.42     4.05    32.11    10.68P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              24   38   +6      71.31     6.85    10.68     0.66     5.37    36.12    13.04P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   37   +5      70.90     6.89    10.63     0.65     5.09    34.30    12.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            25   35  +10      64.16     6.65    10.36     0.05     0.51     8.98     2.35P    0.06R    0.01  
Port_Vale            25   35   +5      66.57     6.60     9.21     0.04     1.01    15.02     4.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe                25   33   -5      62.78     6.69    -3.72     0.01     0.25     5.44     1.36P    0.10R    0.01  
Macclesfield         24   30   -3      56.30     6.55    -8.54     0.00     0.02     0.65     0.13P    1.56R    0.43  
Aldershot            24   27   -8      54.78     6.68   -11.37     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.08P    3.06R    1.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   26  -16      47.52     6.48   -30.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   23.40R   11.13  
Bradford             24   25   -5      51.21     6.64   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    8.40R    3.28  
Bristol_Rovers       24   23  -17      49.15     6.88   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.32R    7.36  
Barnet               24   23  -17      45.55     6.46   -29.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.73R   17.24  
Hereford             24   22  -16      45.07     6.38   -26.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.50R   18.39  
Dag_&_Red            24   21  -16      48.59     6.83   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   17.68R    8.18  
Northampton          25   21  -19      45.93     6.48   -25.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   29.37R   15.04  
Plymouth             25   18  -21      45.23     6.68   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.77R   17.91  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 January 2012, AFC_Telford vs Kettering; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            26   59  +31      96.41     6.06    46.52    55.70    99.71    68.59P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     26   57  +27      92.17     6.26    39.31    24.19    97.85    42.10P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              27   51  +30      90.88     5.60    53.19    18.51    98.02    52.53P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   49  +28      81.26     5.83    39.83     0.85    69.64    16.53P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      27   49  +14      79.51     6.30    20.81     0.56    54.20     9.00P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          28   48   -5      70.18     6.02    -9.57     0.00     6.56     0.39P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          27   47   +6      74.42     6.23     7.91     0.05    21.48     2.23P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   46  +14      76.00     6.18    19.97     0.13    31.38     5.28P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   42   +9      70.64     6.20    12.86     0.01     8.81     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            27   41   +9      70.94     6.15    15.07     0.01    10.33     1.79P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             27   41   +4      65.03     6.12     0.54     0.00     1.49     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       28   38  +11      61.31     5.87     9.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     28   38   -3      59.72     6.07    -8.56     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Tamworth           25   34   -4      56.49     6.28   -14.38     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.43R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   31   -3      54.77     6.22    -7.15     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.99R    0.05  
Darlington         28   27   -5      53.29     5.90    -2.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.63R    0.09  
AFC_Telford        28   27  -13      47.32     5.97   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.20R    1.25  
Lincoln_City       28   26  -15      52.27     6.07   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.93R    0.20  
Stockport          28   23  -18      46.53     5.96   -20.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.31R    2.10  
Newport_County     27   22  -10      47.39     6.11   -11.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.19R    1.46  
Alfreton_Town      28   22  -29      36.47     5.32   -48.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.76R   39.96  
Kettering          28   22  -35      40.54     5.66   -45.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.36R   14.30  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   21  -21      40.18     5.87   -33.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.08R   14.74  
Bath_City          27   18  -22      38.09     5.87   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.03R   25.85  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10