Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 21 October 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 October 2011, Arsenal vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City         8   22  +21      80.91     8.03    51.76    17.54    48.01    83.18    93.83    99.18     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   20  +19      88.72     7.13    69.81    60.55    86.91    97.59    99.46    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          8   19  +11      82.48     7.74    49.11    20.82    57.47    87.15    95.62    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        8   16   +5      57.84     8.26     4.65     0.05     0.45     2.29     9.66    37.36     0.22R    0.02  
Liverpool        8   14   +2      66.54     8.26    19.37     0.49     3.40    13.35    41.05    78.61     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   13   +1      64.56     8.65    15.26     0.41     2.44     9.71    31.04    69.66     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke            8   12   -2      50.07     8.01    -7.68     0.00     0.02     0.18     1.47    10.14     2.67R    0.33  
Aston_Villa      8   11   +1      50.53     8.38    -2.91     0.00     0.03     0.31     2.06    12.68     2.79R    0.29  
Norwich          8   11   -1      41.92     8.38   -19.96     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.30     2.16    18.85R    4.47  
Arsenal          8   10   -5      62.05     8.44    12.87     0.13     1.21     5.63    21.00    59.36     0.12R    0.01  
QPR              8    9   -8      35.19     7.63   -34.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20    48.63R   17.37  
West_Brom        8    8   -3      43.33     8.33   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.31     2.89    14.14R    3.29  
Swansea          8    8   -5      38.28     8.02   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.64    31.76R    9.43  
Fulham           8    7   +1      47.27     8.16    -1.17     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.85     6.41     5.49R    0.84  
Everton          7    7   -4      51.69     8.66    -1.26     0.01     0.05     0.40     2.84    16.21     2.32R    0.34  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -6      36.56     7.73   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.26    39.99R   13.11  
Sunderland       8    6   +0      43.27     8.14    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25     2.51    12.95R    2.82  
Bolton           8    6  -10      41.73     8.31   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16     1.79    19.46R    4.76  
Wigan            8    5   -8      31.95     7.54   -33.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    63.88R   31.11  
Blackburn        8    5   -9      37.30     7.97   -27.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.39    36.67R   11.79  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 October 2011, Leicester vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      12   26  +14      83.67     9.62    30.96    35.43    55.94    87.79    64.65P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         12   21  +11      81.32     9.51    31.78    26.12    46.81    83.00    58.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    12   21   +6      71.72     9.22    12.24     4.70    12.08    47.37    20.61P    0.34R    0.01  
Derby            12   21   +3      63.93     9.12    -2.62     0.68     2.29    17.43     4.74P    2.87R    0.29  
Crystal_Palace   12   20   +5      62.13     8.79    -1.00     0.42     1.38    12.62     3.31P    3.66R    0.37  
Ipswich          12   20   -1      64.40     9.25    -4.42     0.81     2.63    18.74     5.33P    2.87R    0.30  
Peterborough     12   19   +5      62.16     9.98    -2.71     0.81     2.43    15.88     4.90P    5.92R    0.89  
Blackpool        12   19   +4      72.18     9.86    13.66     6.39    14.86    49.23    24.17P    0.55R    0.05  
Leicester        12   19   +4      69.34     9.25     9.41     2.79     7.72    37.26    14.79P    0.75R    0.07  
Brighton         12   19   +2      61.14     9.45    -4.89     0.46     1.43    12.03     3.43P    6.02R    0.79  
Leeds_United     11   18   +5      69.44     9.83    10.07     3.51     9.22    38.76    15.95P    1.09R    0.09  
Hull             11   18   +0      65.51     9.09     0.27     1.03     3.22    21.83     7.14P    1.91R    0.17  
Cardiff          12   17   +2      70.14     9.23    11.71     3.25     9.04    40.78    17.57P    0.59R    0.04  
Reading          12   16   +1      67.36     9.30     8.04     2.02     5.54    29.82    12.29P    1.22R    0.11  
Barnsley         12   15   +0      56.06     8.81    -7.88     0.05     0.24     3.83     0.85P   13.85R    2.44  
Birmingham        9   14   +2      75.07    10.40    17.56    11.06    23.32    60.59    34.63P    0.38R    0.03  
Burnley          11   12   -2      59.15     9.28    -3.63     0.25     0.88     8.33     2.62P    8.54R    1.32  
Portsmouth       12   12   -2      57.73     8.96    -2.85     0.10     0.46     5.72     1.66P   10.30R    1.60  
Coventry         12   11   -5      51.16     8.67   -13.65     0.01     0.05     1.03     0.24P   29.88R    6.92  
Nott'm_Forest    12   11  -10      56.76     9.14   -11.33     0.07     0.33     4.75     1.40P   13.31R    2.42  
Watford          12   10  -11      51.19     9.14   -20.19     0.00     0.04     1.39     0.30P   31.62R    8.46  
Millwall         12    9   -7      52.55     8.88   -10.72     0.01     0.07     1.65     0.40P   24.47R    5.40  
Doncaster        12    8  -12      41.98     8.46   -30.97     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   72.38R   36.84  
Bristol_City     12    6  -14      42.96     8.70   -28.84     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.02P   67.44R   31.40  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 October 2011, Preston vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        13   28  +13      83.83     9.24    28.80    17.67    37.54    85.60    50.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    13   27  +18      89.97     8.97    45.70    44.84    66.72    95.81    76.95P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       13   26   +6      77.63     9.37    15.39     5.78    15.63    64.19    26.55P    0.08R    0.00  
Notts_County    13   25   +9      72.13     9.18    11.61     1.56     5.48    41.37    12.49P    0.41R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd       13   24   +9      83.27     9.47    30.29    16.46    35.85    83.63    51.19P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons         13   23  +10      75.95     9.36    21.41     4.32    12.57    58.79    24.33P    0.16R    0.00  
Preston         12   22   +4      78.04    10.15    18.58     7.90    19.41    65.19    31.73P    0.19R    0.01  
Brentford       13   21   +2      65.89     9.08     1.44     0.29     1.29    17.94     4.46P    2.38R    0.13  
Carlisle        13   21   +0      64.97     9.24    -2.66     0.31     1.25    15.83     4.21P    3.28R    0.20  
Hartlepool      12   19   +3      63.06     9.39    -1.27     0.17     0.85    12.22     2.88P    5.12R    0.41  
Tranmere        13   19   +2      63.51     8.94     1.25     0.10     0.59    12.07     2.75P    3.88R    0.25  
Colchester      13   18   +1      66.09     9.26     5.05     0.36     1.65    19.41     5.39P    2.37R    0.16  
Oldham          13   17   -5      58.42     8.90   -10.78     0.04     0.16     4.34     0.90P   11.70R    1.16  
Stevenage       13   16   +3      56.33     9.17    -4.37     0.02     0.11     3.22     0.69P   16.75R    2.16  
Walsall         13   14   -1      55.32     8.92    -7.17     0.02     0.09     2.19     0.48P   19.13R    2.63  
Bury            13   14   -7      50.92     9.19   -20.06     0.00     0.02     0.91     0.19P   37.59R    7.77  
Scunthorpe      13   13   -2      60.36     9.79     0.67     0.14     0.53     8.79     2.43P    9.49R    1.09  
Rochdale        13   13   -7      56.43     9.20   -10.57     0.01     0.12     3.16     0.70P   17.37R    2.43  
Wycombe         13   12   -6      49.56     9.17   -18.05     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.13P   42.61R   10.55  
Bournemouth     13   12   -8      56.27     9.21   -10.04     0.02     0.11     3.06     0.73P   17.75R    2.30  
Leyton_Orient   13   12  -11      52.17     9.05   -19.52     0.00     0.02     1.04     0.20P   31.95R    6.13  
Chesterfield    13   11   -8      46.98     9.24   -23.72     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P   54.18R   16.99  
Yeovil          13    9   -9      47.46     8.92   -19.85     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.05P   51.27R   14.44  
Exeter          13    8  -16      42.87     8.62   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   72.33R   31.17  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 21 October 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Crawley_Town         13   28   +6      74.44     9.78     7.40     9.74    29.13    60.62    35.05P    0.12R    0.02  
Southend             13   26   +9      80.99     9.19    23.64    26.53    57.02    84.78    64.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham           14   26   +6      67.94     8.95     2.69     2.28    10.10    34.18    14.31P    0.43R    0.09  
Oxford_Utd           13   23   +7      68.49     9.03     7.59     2.64    11.65    37.20    17.19P    0.32R    0.07  
Shrewsbury           13   23   +3      76.07     9.26    14.56    11.92    35.05    68.82    44.28P    0.04R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   23   +2      60.32     9.38   -11.82     0.45     2.55    11.94     4.04P    4.04R    1.26  
Morecambe            13   22  +12      68.23     9.36    13.14     3.08    12.43    37.55    18.15P    0.48R    0.12  
Port_Vale            13   22  +10      73.54     9.21    19.37     8.03    26.58    60.00    35.68P    0.10R    0.01  
Gillingham           13   21   +8      74.61     9.32    20.73    10.06    30.95    64.52    40.76P    0.08R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        13   20   +1      63.61     9.16    -1.91     0.76     4.34    19.35     7.27P    1.80R    0.53  
Swindon              13   19   +7      77.31     9.51    26.98    16.88    42.67    73.96    53.47P    0.03R    0.01  
Macclesfield         13   18   +3      58.85     9.02    -3.93     0.24     1.59     9.05     3.05P    4.79R    1.60  
Rotherham            13   18   -1      68.69     9.38     7.10     2.95    12.81    38.70    19.42P    0.51R    0.13  
Bristol_Rovers       13   18   -3      64.58     9.76    -1.51     1.50     6.74    23.96    11.27P    1.80R    0.56  
Crewe                13   16   -2      66.21     9.44     5.29     1.70     8.49    29.46    14.12P    1.08R    0.27  
Torquay              13   15   -3      61.89     9.24    -0.84     0.62     3.40    15.54     6.60P    2.68R    0.81  
Northampton          13   15   -4      58.36     9.14    -7.11     0.19     1.28     8.29     2.84P    5.81R    2.03  
Accrington_Stanley   14   15   -6      57.22     8.91    -8.68     0.09     0.84     6.11     2.07P    6.74R    2.34  
Aldershot            13   14   -3      55.47     8.92    -8.49     0.08     0.60     4.28     1.42P    9.20R    3.34  
Dag_&_Red            13   13   -6      57.90     9.45    -6.51     0.23     1.43     8.27     3.29P    6.72R    2.46  
Barnet               13   12  -10      47.42     8.87   -26.62     0.00     0.06     0.60     0.14P   36.26R   18.53  
Bradford             13   10   -6      45.81     8.78   -20.96     0.00     0.03     0.37     0.08P   42.10R   22.46  
Hereford             13   10  -15      43.52     8.57   -33.06     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.03P   55.05R   34.20  
Plymouth             13    8  -15      52.01     9.48   -17.05     0.03     0.26     2.31     0.78P   19.83R    9.14  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 21 October 2011, Cambridge_Utd vs Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            17   38  +19      90.93     7.99    39.13    40.75    95.02    57.06P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     17   34  +10      81.76     8.24    22.36     8.10    69.26    21.97P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              18   33  +16      90.29     7.49    46.51    38.54    95.18    62.69P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      18   33  +11      76.18     8.06    18.21     2.08    43.09    10.09P    0.01R    0.00  
York               17   31  +16      80.57     8.25    30.95     6.52    66.30    21.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Southport          17   31   +2      67.45     8.28    -3.79     0.20    10.44     1.36P    0.28R    0.00  
Gateshead          17   30   +2      68.92     8.40     0.14     0.31    14.18     2.12P    0.17R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   28   +6      65.78     8.35     0.65     0.13     8.31     1.24P    0.38R    0.01  
Kidderminster      17   28   +5      74.65     8.48    15.56     1.64    36.82     8.72P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield          16   27   +7      73.42     8.62    15.22     1.41    31.65     7.28P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     17   26   +6      64.84     8.86     3.82     0.15     8.41     1.39P    0.88R    0.01  
Barrow             17   26   +0      62.18     8.24    -6.23     0.02     3.49     0.41P    1.41R    0.04  
Darlington         17   22   -5      65.62     8.19     0.84     0.10     7.09     1.71P    0.50R    0.01  
Forest_Green       17   20   +3      55.27     8.05    -3.97     0.00     0.56     0.07P    6.92R    0.27  
Grimsby            18   20   -6      61.86     8.15    -0.94     0.01     2.96     0.56P    1.51R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   18   -1      53.69     8.63    -7.59     0.00     0.49     0.10P   12.09R    0.72  
Stockport          17   18   -4      63.65     8.69     5.15     0.06     5.87     1.34P    1.19R    0.03  
AFC_Telford        17   18   -5      50.14     8.45   -17.04     0.00     0.16     0.03P   22.35R    1.79  
Kettering          17   18  -11      52.46     8.04   -19.65     0.00     0.13     0.02P   14.55R    0.88  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   16   -9      46.45     8.02   -25.76     0.00     0.02     0.00    38.90R    3.74  
Lincoln_City       18   16  -11      54.31     8.29   -10.99     0.00     0.39     0.10P   10.17R    0.48  
Newport_County     17   14   -8      51.68     8.25   -11.78     0.00     0.17     0.03P   16.13R    1.22  
Alfreton_Town      17   10  -25      31.38     7.39   -58.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.91R   67.92  
Bath_City          17    7  -18      38.06     7.92   -32.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.62R   22.87