Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 20 October 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 October 2011, Arsenal vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City         8   22  +21      80.96     8.02    51.80    17.43    48.30    83.51    93.96    99.23     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   20  +19      88.72     7.09    69.75    60.36    86.69    97.62    99.47    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          8   19  +11      82.51     7.76    49.26    21.19    57.53    87.35    95.66    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        8   16   +5      57.75     8.22     4.53     0.04     0.42     2.04     9.46    36.83     0.22R    0.01  
Liverpool        8   14   +2      66.73     8.22    19.66     0.57     3.56    13.70    41.84    79.43     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   13   +1      64.46     8.61    15.03     0.30     2.20     9.16    30.65    69.66     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke            8   12   -2      49.82     8.05    -8.08     0.00     0.02     0.17     1.39     9.72     2.93R    0.39  
Aston_Villa      8   11   +1      50.53     8.37    -2.88     0.00     0.04     0.29     2.07    12.55     2.54R    0.35  
Norwich          8   11   -1      41.95     8.35   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.27     2.28    18.80R    4.48  
Arsenal          8   10   -5      61.87     8.44    12.58     0.12     1.18     5.54    20.61    59.03     0.09R    0.01  
QPR              8    9   -8      35.04     7.58   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16    49.37R   17.80  
West_Brom        8    8   -3      43.30     8.26   -15.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.31     2.86    13.97R    3.12  
Swansea          8    8   -5      38.29     8.00   -21.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.65    31.58R    9.16  
Fulham           8    7   +1      47.28     8.17    -1.18     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.85     6.47     5.36R    0.87  
Everton          7    7   -4      51.88     8.68    -0.93     0.01     0.05     0.43     2.98    16.65     2.26R    0.32  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -6      36.47     7.73   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25    40.86R   13.45  
Sunderland       8    6   +0      43.25     8.14    -7.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23     2.49    13.16R    2.96  
Bolton           8    6  -10      41.83     8.33   -22.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16     1.79    19.49R    4.87  
Wigan            8    5   -8      32.12     7.58   -33.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    63.24R   30.74  
Blackburn        8    5   -9      37.39     7.94   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.39    36.08R   11.47  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 October 2011, Leicester vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      12   26  +14      83.60     9.65    30.82    35.06    55.69    87.55    64.16P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         12   21  +11      81.31     9.47    31.77    26.31    46.59    83.10    58.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    12   21   +6      71.77     9.12    12.32     4.60    11.87    47.17    20.29P    0.32R    0.02  
Derby            12   21   +3      63.96     9.10    -2.58     0.66     2.22    17.69     4.87P    2.86R    0.26  
Crystal_Palace   12   20   +5      61.99     8.81    -1.21     0.41     1.31    12.18     3.30P    3.86R    0.39  
Ipswich          12   20   -1      64.31     9.24    -4.62     0.85     2.70    18.42     5.41P    3.04R    0.32  
Peterborough     12   19   +5      62.15    10.01    -2.67     0.87     2.52    15.93     4.87P    6.07R    0.87  
Blackpool        12   19   +4      72.19     9.85    13.67     6.30    14.90    49.60    24.27P    0.57R    0.05  
Leicester        12   19   +4      69.24     9.30     9.32     2.67     7.77    36.98    14.60P    0.75R    0.06  
Brighton         12   19   +2      61.21     9.49    -4.82     0.54     1.70    12.09     3.72P    6.24R    0.78  
Leeds_United     11   18   +5      69.44     9.78    10.10     3.49     8.89    38.43    15.73P    1.00R    0.11  
Hull             11   18   +0      65.58     9.02     0.33     1.08     3.33    21.49     7.23P    1.79R    0.14  
Cardiff          12   17   +2      70.06     9.31    11.62     3.23     8.98    40.45    17.43P    0.60R    0.05  
Reading          12   16   +1      67.47     9.33     8.21     1.96     5.74    30.66    12.67P    1.13R    0.10  
Barnsley         12   15   +0      56.13     8.85    -7.77     0.06     0.26     3.93     0.96P   13.51R    2.30  
Birmingham        9   14   +2      75.24    10.39    17.71    11.39    23.68    61.08    35.29P    0.32R    0.04  
Burnley          11   12   -2      59.29     9.38    -3.36     0.32     0.94     8.82     2.76P    8.49R    1.40  
Portsmouth       12   12   -2      57.49     8.96    -3.21     0.12     0.42     5.38     1.47P   10.72R    1.74  
Coventry         12   11   -5      50.99     8.67   -13.84     0.01     0.05     0.98     0.22P   30.28R    7.26  
Nott'm_Forest    12   11  -10      56.71     9.14   -11.34     0.06     0.30     4.71     1.32P   13.30R    2.33  
Watford          12   10  -11      51.35     9.26   -20.01     0.01     0.07     1.48     0.35P   31.25R    8.70  
Millwall         12    9   -7      52.71     8.85   -10.53     0.01     0.07     1.73     0.47P   23.56R    5.16  
Doncaster        12    8  -12      41.84     8.43   -31.17     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   72.78R   36.94  
Bristol_City     12    6  -14      42.96     8.67   -28.73     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.03P   67.53R   31.00  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 October 2011, Preston vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        13   28  +13      83.97     9.14    28.98    17.58    37.55    86.15    50.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    13   27  +18      90.06     9.04    45.84    44.67    67.15    95.84    77.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       13   26   +6      77.77     9.37    15.62     5.99    15.87    64.80    26.88P    0.10R    0.00  
Notts_County    13   25   +9      72.04     9.10    11.55     1.73     5.48    40.34    12.00P    0.37R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd       13   24   +9      83.28     9.54    30.34    16.31    35.84    83.64    51.30P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons         13   23  +10      75.90     9.37    21.36     4.23    12.34    58.74    24.06P    0.18R    0.01  
Preston         12   22   +4      78.24    10.09    18.86     8.02    19.20    66.04    31.71P    0.18R    0.01  
Brentford       13   21   +2      66.14     9.11     1.73     0.34     1.47    18.89     4.90P    2.18R    0.11  
Carlisle        13   21   +0      64.91     9.15    -2.72     0.31     1.21    15.38     3.85P    3.15R    0.21  
Hartlepool      12   19   +3      63.22     9.31    -1.06     0.18     0.79    12.14     2.82P    4.78R    0.41  
Tranmere        13   19   +2      63.49     8.94     1.23     0.16     0.68    11.98     2.80P    3.79R    0.23  
Colchester      13   18   +1      65.89     9.18     4.76     0.31     1.41    18.88     5.20P    2.45R    0.19  
Oldham          13   17   -5      58.23     8.91   -11.19     0.02     0.12     4.19     0.91P   12.28R    1.26  
Stevenage       13   16   +3      56.24     9.24    -4.53     0.02     0.14     3.42     0.70P   17.21R    2.20  
Walsall         13   14   -1      55.60     9.01    -6.81     0.00     0.08     2.51     0.53P   18.43R    2.56  
Bury            13   14   -7      50.64     9.21   -20.45     0.00     0.02     0.93     0.14P   38.58R    8.23  
Scunthorpe      13   13   -2      60.14     9.65     0.28     0.08     0.43     7.91     2.23P    9.69R    1.23  
Rochdale        13   13   -7      56.37     9.21   -10.67     0.02     0.12     3.11     0.72P   17.49R    2.59  
Wycombe         13   12   -6      49.29     9.16   -18.48     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.12P   43.65R   10.87  
Bournemouth     13   12   -8      56.22     9.20   -10.05     0.01     0.08     2.89     0.74P   17.80R    2.39  
Leyton_Orient   13   12  -11      52.24     9.09   -19.35     0.00     0.03     1.09     0.20P   31.61R    6.17  
Chesterfield    13   11   -8      46.87     9.15   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   54.51R   16.96  
Yeovil          13    9   -9      47.55     8.90   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   50.76R   14.26  
Exeter          13    8  -16      43.17     8.68   -31.72     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   70.81R   30.08  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 October 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Crawley_Town         13   28   +6      74.71     9.79     7.75    10.14    30.19    61.54    36.25P    0.09R    0.02  
Southend             13   26   +9      81.02     9.27    23.65    27.05    57.30    84.97    64.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           13   23   +7      68.47     9.07     7.55     2.62    11.76    37.27    17.27P    0.37R    0.07  
Cheltenham           13   23   +5      65.46     9.13     0.25     1.41     6.85    25.49    10.30P    0.98R    0.22  
Shrewsbury           13   23   +3      76.12     9.17    14.68    11.72    35.31    69.23    44.58P    0.03R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   23   +2      60.31     9.36   -11.89     0.51     2.62    12.01     4.07P    4.13R    1.24  
Morecambe            13   22  +12      68.15     9.34    12.96     2.98    12.22    37.48    17.97P    0.41R    0.10  
Port_Vale            13   22  +10      73.38     9.21    19.19     7.83    26.11    59.52    35.23P    0.11R    0.02  
Gillingham           13   21   +8      74.50     9.27    20.51     9.72    30.37    63.95    39.77P    0.06R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        13   20   +1      63.47     9.20    -2.14     0.72     4.37    19.49     7.30P    1.74R    0.51  
Swindon              13   19   +7      77.37     9.61    27.11    17.01    43.19    74.43    53.76P    0.03R    0.01  
Macclesfield         13   18   +3      58.83     9.07    -4.00     0.29     1.67     9.22     3.14P    4.81R    1.55  
Rotherham            13   18   -1      68.75     9.49     7.25     3.13    13.01    39.19    19.78P    0.59R    0.17  
Bristol_Rovers       13   18   -3      64.71     9.81    -1.26     1.61     7.10    24.64    11.60P    1.73R    0.53  
Crewe                13   16   -2      66.30     9.47     5.39     1.78     8.67    30.08    14.38P    1.01R    0.26  
Torquay              13   15   -3      62.29     9.23    -0.26     0.67     3.70    16.59     6.97P    2.45R    0.79  
Northampton          13   15   -4      58.28     9.12    -7.24     0.21     1.32     8.02     2.85P    5.80R    2.09  
Accrington_Stanley   13   15   -5      59.62     9.25    -6.28     0.26     1.86    10.52     3.92P    4.43R    1.51  
Aldershot            13   14   -3      55.12     8.94    -8.97     0.08     0.50     4.10     1.37P    9.91R    3.66  
Dag_&_Red            13   13   -6      58.09     9.43    -6.24     0.22     1.51     8.57     3.44P    6.47R    2.30  
Barnet               13   12  -10      47.22     8.88   -26.94     0.01     0.05     0.60     0.14P   37.39R   19.20  
Bradford             13   10   -6      45.81     8.75   -20.99     0.00     0.02     0.36     0.10P   42.17R   22.25  
Hereford             13   10  -15      43.42     8.62   -33.17     0.00     0.02     0.16     0.04P   55.44R   34.47  
Plymouth             13    8  -15      52.11     9.53   -16.93     0.03     0.28     2.56     0.88P   19.84R    9.02  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 October 2011, Alfreton_Town vs Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            17   38  +19      90.84     7.97    39.01    42.51    95.06    58.20P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     17   34  +10      81.67     8.34    22.21     8.74    69.93    22.51P    0.00     0.00  
York               17   31  +16      80.63     8.28    31.00     7.30    67.61    22.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Southport          17   31   +2      67.54     8.29    -3.69     0.22    11.24     1.48P    0.27R    0.00  
Luton              17   30  +15      89.27     7.73    46.63    35.43    93.54    60.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      17   30   +9      74.20     8.30    15.71     1.44    35.33     8.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead          17   30   +2      68.89     8.39     0.08     0.31    14.68     2.18P    0.20R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   28   +6      65.82     8.33     0.70     0.16     8.84     1.29P    0.37R    0.01  
Kidderminster      17   28   +5      74.38     8.54    15.13     1.79    36.49     8.90P    0.03R    0.00  
Mansfield          16   27   +7      73.70     8.67    15.65     1.65    34.20     7.64P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     17   26   +6      65.10     8.95     4.21     0.22     9.14     1.73P    0.87R    0.03  
Barrow             17   26   +0      62.10     8.25    -6.37     0.03     3.71     0.50P    1.35R    0.02  
Darlington         17   22   -5      65.63     8.12     0.86     0.09     7.46     1.71P    0.48R    0.00  
Forest_Green       17   20   +3      55.44     8.14    -3.64     0.00     0.69     0.09P    7.08R    0.27  
Grimsby            17   20   -5      62.77     8.34    -0.67     0.04     4.18     0.78P    1.33R    0.05  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   18   -1      53.31     8.59    -8.29     0.00     0.42     0.08P   13.43R    0.62  
Stockport          17   18   -4      63.56     8.71     4.94     0.06     6.10     1.36P    1.35R    0.05  
AFC_Telford        17   18   -5      50.19     8.39   -16.97     0.00     0.15     0.03P   22.72R    1.71  
Kettering          17   18  -11      52.21     8.00   -20.10     0.00     0.18     0.02P   15.40R    0.84  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   16   -9      46.53     8.04   -25.70     0.00     0.04     0.01P   38.97R    3.94  
Lincoln_City       17   16   -9      56.22     8.44    -8.18     0.01     0.82     0.18P    7.32R    0.32  
Newport_County     17   14   -8      51.71     8.18   -11.80     0.00     0.19     0.04P   16.03R    1.20  
Alfreton_Town      17   10  -25      31.41     7.41   -58.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.93R   67.97  
Bath_City          17    7  -18      38.11     7.90   -32.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.81R   22.97