Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 18 October 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 October 2011, Arsenal vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City         8   22  +21      80.93     8.03    51.66    17.28    48.00    83.42    93.94    99.20     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   20  +19      88.77     7.09    69.87    60.65    86.90    97.67    99.48    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          8   19  +11      82.55     7.72    49.31    21.00    57.47    87.54    95.63    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        8   16   +5      57.92     8.25     4.78     0.05     0.43     2.10     9.53    37.25     0.21R    0.02  
Liverpool        8   14   +2      66.61     8.24    19.43     0.55     3.54    13.48    41.61    78.93     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   13   +1      64.52     8.61    15.18     0.33     2.38     9.41    31.02    69.86     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke            8   12   -2      50.10     8.06    -7.55     0.00     0.02     0.17     1.54    10.40     2.69R    0.35  
Aston_Villa      8   11   +1      50.52     8.34    -2.92     0.00     0.04     0.32     2.12    12.50     2.59R    0.35  
Norwich          8   11   -1      41.91     8.43   -19.92     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.27     2.24    18.82R    4.69  
Arsenal          8   10   -5      61.87     8.41    12.59     0.14     1.16     5.35    20.37    58.95     0.10R    0.00  
QPR              8    9   -8      35.04     7.64   -34.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16    49.22R   18.04  
West_Brom        8    8   -3      43.42     8.29   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.34     2.87    13.80R    3.02  
Swansea          8    8   -5      38.26     8.01   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.66    31.90R    9.42  
Fulham           8    7   +1      47.18     8.10    -1.32     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.80     6.33     5.41R    0.77  
Everton          7    7   -4      51.67     8.69    -1.32     0.00     0.05     0.41     2.90    16.26     2.40R    0.31  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -6      36.49     7.75   -27.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.27    40.39R   13.49  
Sunderland       8    6   +0      43.30     8.13    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.21     2.52    12.95R    2.76  
Bolton           8    6  -10      41.60     8.30   -22.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.68    20.15R    4.83  
Wigan            8    5   -8      32.15     7.52   -33.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    63.05R   30.05  
Blackburn        8    5   -9      37.35     7.95   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.38    36.28R   11.89  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 October 2011, Barnsley vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      12   26  +14      83.73     9.68    31.03    35.90    56.25    87.86    64.75P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         12   21  +11      81.36     9.47    31.80    26.10    47.02    83.41    59.46P    0.03R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    12   21   +6      71.76     9.24    12.30     4.85    12.14    47.73    20.65P    0.38R    0.03  
Derby            12   21   +3      64.00     9.14    -2.53     0.76     2.42    18.06     5.13P    2.88R    0.33  
Crystal_Palace   12   20   +5      61.98     8.92    -1.30     0.41     1.44    12.76     3.60P    4.26R    0.47  
Ipswich          12   20   -1      64.04     9.22    -4.95     0.74     2.41    17.87     5.17P    3.19R    0.41  
Peterborough     12   19   +5      62.18    10.02    -2.62     0.84     2.62    16.38     5.12P    6.17R    0.94  
Blackpool        12   19   +4      72.06     9.91    13.43     6.15    14.62    49.35    23.99P    0.52R    0.05  
Brighton         12   19   +2      61.19     9.42    -4.87     0.53     1.65    12.20     3.63P    6.26R    0.76  
Leeds_United     11   18   +5      69.35     9.87     9.90     3.54     9.35    38.79    15.97P    1.07R    0.08  
Hull             11   18   +0      65.61     9.01     0.39     0.99     3.26    22.12     7.28P    1.88R    0.15  
Cardiff          12   17   +2      70.17     9.32    11.78     3.39     9.20    41.24    17.79P    0.63R    0.05  
Leicester        11   16   +2      67.83     9.54     7.61     2.28     6.36    32.12    12.45P    1.40R    0.11  
Reading          12   16   +1      67.31     9.35     7.94     1.92     5.64    30.15    12.44P    1.34R    0.14  
Barnsley         12   15   +0      56.13     8.88    -7.77     0.06     0.28     4.00     0.91P   14.06R    2.47  
Birmingham        9   14   +2      75.10    10.38    17.55    11.03    23.27    61.22    34.75P    0.36R    0.04  
Burnley          11   12   -2      59.27     9.43    -3.39     0.26     0.99     8.95     2.74P    8.99R    1.46  
Portsmouth       12   12   -2      57.40     8.97    -3.29     0.12     0.43     5.50     1.56P   11.13R    1.71  
Coventry         12   11   -5      51.10     8.72   -13.67     0.01     0.05     1.04     0.22P   30.51R    7.33  
Nott'm_Forest    12   11  -10      56.85     9.15   -11.21     0.08     0.37     4.95     1.34P   13.54R    2.33  
Watford          11   10   -9      52.89     9.46   -17.70     0.04     0.17     2.41     0.59P   26.12R    6.82  
Millwall         12    9   -7      52.77     8.83   -10.41     0.02     0.06     1.74     0.44P   23.95R    5.37  
Doncaster        12    8  -12      41.86     8.45   -31.10     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   73.23R   37.06  
Bristol_City     12    6  -14      42.91     8.78   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   68.10R   31.86  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 October 2011, Sheff_Utd vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        13   28  +13      83.85     9.18    28.78    17.68    37.86    86.05    50.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    13   27  +18      89.94     9.07    45.57    44.83    67.01    95.67    77.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       13   26   +6      77.69     9.43    15.48     6.28    16.52    64.69    27.51P    0.11R    0.00  
Notts_County    13   25   +9      72.10     9.11    11.63     1.74     5.87    41.43    12.65P    0.37R    0.01  
MK_Dons         13   23  +10      75.85     9.31    21.30     4.38    12.51    58.78    24.40P    0.14R    0.00  
Preston         11   22   +6      80.51    10.48    22.34    13.25    28.25    73.19    40.54P    0.11R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd       12   21   +7      80.03     9.82    25.62    10.21    25.01    73.84    40.32P    0.09R    0.00  
Brentford       13   21   +2      65.87     9.07     1.34     0.32     1.38    18.23     4.68P    2.35R    0.14  
Carlisle        13   21   +0      64.84     9.18    -2.81     0.32     1.31    15.43     4.07P    3.29R    0.20  
Hartlepool      12   19   +3      63.23     9.28    -0.98     0.23     0.90    12.54     3.05P    4.73R    0.35  
Tranmere        13   19   +2      63.48     8.94     1.26     0.11     0.68    12.08     2.95P    3.95R    0.26  
Colchester      13   18   +1      65.87     9.30     4.68     0.37     1.49    19.43     5.25P    2.58R    0.17  
Oldham          13   17   -5      58.34     8.92   -10.89     0.04     0.17     4.29     0.86P   12.14R    1.20  
Stevenage       13   16   +3      56.19     9.26    -4.52     0.03     0.14     3.50     0.76P   17.54R    2.33  
Walsall         13   14   -1      55.52     9.02    -6.84     0.01     0.10     2.58     0.61P   19.11R    2.64  
Bury            13   14   -7      50.53     9.09   -20.63     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.17P   39.29R    8.50  
Scunthorpe      13   13   -2      60.23     9.65     0.48     0.12     0.53     8.44     2.32P    9.59R    1.17  
Rochdale        13   13   -7      56.50     9.18   -10.38     0.02     0.12     3.14     0.68P   17.55R    2.50  
Wycombe         13   12   -6      49.79     9.19   -17.63     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.14P   41.47R   10.21  
Bournemouth     13   12   -8      56.38     9.22    -9.86     0.03     0.11     3.23     0.85P   17.54R    2.43  
Leyton_Orient   13   12  -11      52.47     9.11   -18.96     0.01     0.04     1.27     0.26P   31.26R    6.00  
Chesterfield    13   11   -8      46.98     9.23   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.08P   54.77R   16.77  
Yeovil          13    9   -9      47.49     8.95   -19.78     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   51.03R   14.77  
Exeter          13    8  -16      43.20     8.71   -31.56     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   70.97R   30.33  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 October 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Crawley_Town         13   28   +6      74.70     9.80     7.80    10.25    29.94    61.67    35.94P    0.09R    0.02  
Southend             13   26   +9      81.15     9.10    23.86    27.10    57.90    85.49    65.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           13   23   +7      68.55     9.04     7.70     2.65    11.61    37.37    17.11P    0.36R    0.09  
Cheltenham           13   23   +5      65.50     9.16     0.29     1.51     6.80    25.50    10.19P    0.99R    0.25  
Shrewsbury           13   23   +3      76.08     9.19    14.59    11.66    35.06    69.01    44.26P    0.04R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   23   +2      60.60     9.42   -11.44     0.53     2.81    12.78     4.41P    3.86R    1.23  
Morecambe            13   22  +12      68.18     9.28    13.04     2.97    12.34    37.21    17.94P    0.38R    0.09  
Port_Vale            13   22  +10      73.34     9.19    19.15     7.65    26.02    59.57    35.33P    0.09R    0.02  
Gillingham           13   21   +8      74.31     9.31    20.29     9.70    29.85    63.10    39.44P    0.06R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        13   20   +1      63.42     9.22    -2.21     0.74     4.36    19.22     7.17P    1.85R    0.55  
Swindon              13   19   +7      77.49     9.55    27.28    17.05    43.53    74.82    54.29P    0.04R    0.01  
Macclesfield         13   18   +3      58.87     9.02    -3.89     0.24     1.65     9.20     3.11P    4.85R    1.54  
Rotherham            13   18   -1      68.92     9.49     7.51     3.23    13.37    39.84    20.15P    0.52R    0.16  
Bristol_Rovers       13   18   -3      64.57     9.71    -1.51     1.44     6.79    24.02    11.24P    1.73R    0.48  
Crewe                13   16   -2      66.32     9.50     5.49     1.80     8.73    30.21    14.44P    1.02R    0.30  
Torquay              13   15   -3      62.05     9.30    -0.65     0.66     3.65    16.17     6.80P    2.67R    0.75  
Northampton          13   15   -4      58.54     9.14    -6.91     0.21     1.44     8.61     3.09P    5.56R    2.01  
Accrington_Stanley   13   15   -5      59.49     9.22    -6.44     0.28     1.74    10.29     3.69P    4.57R    1.55  
Aldershot            13   14   -3      55.29     8.90    -8.75     0.07     0.56     4.12     1.36P    9.42R    3.35  
Dag_&_Red            13   13   -6      57.92     9.47    -6.51     0.23     1.45     8.24     3.36P    6.62R    2.43  
Barnet               13   12  -10      47.08     8.92   -27.10     0.00     0.03     0.57     0.13P   37.97R   19.53  
Bradford             13   10   -6      45.61     8.75   -21.35     0.00     0.03     0.36     0.09P   42.83R   22.72  
Hereford             13   10  -15      43.49     8.63   -33.21     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.04P   54.92R   34.11  
Plymouth             13    8  -15      52.08     9.48   -17.01     0.02     0.31     2.48     0.88P   19.56R    8.80  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 October 2011, Alfreton_Town vs Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            17   38  +19      90.93     8.02    39.13    43.38    95.33    59.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     17   34  +10      81.66     8.21    22.22     8.67    70.04    22.46P    0.00     0.00  
York               17   31  +16      80.46     8.24    30.73     7.02    66.70    22.47P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          17   31   +2      67.49     8.31    -3.77     0.22    11.33     1.57P    0.23R    0.00  
Luton              17   30  +15      89.12     7.77    46.38    34.99    93.41    59.78P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      17   30   +9      74.18     8.24    15.67     1.44    35.04     8.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead          17   30   +2      68.92     8.38     0.07     0.28    14.91     2.21P    0.17R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   28   +6      65.75     8.40     0.58     0.21     8.87     1.41P    0.42R    0.01  
Kidderminster      17   28   +5      74.54     8.37    15.34     1.70    36.71     8.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Mansfield          16   27   +7      73.69     8.64    15.67     1.67    34.11     7.70P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     17   26   +6      65.19     8.94     4.41     0.20     9.48     1.66P    0.85R    0.01  
Barrow             17   26   +0      62.17     8.28    -6.28     0.03     3.67     0.48P    1.37R    0.03  
Darlington         17   22   -5      65.69     8.11     0.92     0.06     7.48     1.73P    0.44R    0.00  
Forest_Green       17   20   +3      55.29     8.04    -3.85     0.00     0.57     0.10P    7.10R    0.31  
Grimsby            17   20   -5      62.93     8.36    -0.42     0.05     4.53     0.94P    1.24R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   18   -1      53.10     8.57    -8.58     0.00     0.42     0.07P   13.30R    0.70  
Stockport          17   18   -4      63.54     8.66     4.92     0.06     5.96     1.33P    1.25R    0.03  
AFC_Telford        17   18   -5      50.28     8.46   -16.80     0.00     0.14     0.01P   22.50R    1.68  
Kettering          17   18  -11      52.52     7.99   -19.58     0.00     0.17     0.02P   14.11R    0.77  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   16   -9      46.54     8.04   -25.61     0.00     0.03     0.00P   39.10R    3.43  
Lincoln_City       17   16   -9      56.43     8.47    -7.88     0.01     0.93     0.19P    7.05R    0.31  
Newport_County     17   14   -8      51.74     8.19   -11.69     0.00     0.18     0.02P   16.17R    1.09  
Alfreton_Town      17   10  -25      31.19     7.34   -58.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.21R   68.51  
Bath_City          17    7  -18      37.86     7.81   -32.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.43R   23.08