Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 16 October 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 October 2011, Arsenal vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City         8   22  +21      80.87     8.00    51.65    17.42    47.83    83.16    93.86    99.24     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   20  +19      88.67     7.10    69.73    60.13    86.70    97.56    99.46    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          8   19  +11      82.57     7.78    49.28    21.32    57.79    87.30    95.67    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        8   16   +5      57.90     8.18     4.78     0.02     0.34     2.03     9.53    37.79     0.26R    0.02  
Liverpool        8   14   +2      66.58     8.26    19.42     0.55     3.58    13.64    41.43    79.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   13   +1      64.49     8.63    15.18     0.36     2.33     9.51    31.08    69.91     0.05R    0.00  
Stoke            8   12   -2      50.08     8.02    -7.67     0.00     0.03     0.18     1.46    10.08     2.68R    0.40  
Aston_Villa      8   11   +1      50.43     8.34    -3.03     0.00     0.04     0.30     1.99    12.21     2.50R    0.34  
Norwich          8   11   -1      41.94     8.36   -19.83     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.22     2.25    19.05R    4.50  
Arsenal          8   10   -5      61.83     8.56    12.49     0.19     1.29     5.69    20.62    58.63     0.12R    0.01  
QPR              8    9   -8      35.13     7.66   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.19    48.75R   17.80  
West_Brom        8    8   -3      43.51     8.29   -14.86     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.34     2.84    13.66R    3.00  
Swansea          8    8   -5      38.34     8.06   -21.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.68    31.78R    9.46  
Fulham           8    7   +1      47.33     8.15    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.91     6.42     5.28R    0.89  
Everton          7    7   -4      51.69     8.65    -1.27     0.00     0.06     0.45     2.94    16.23     2.22R    0.31  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -6      36.42     7.68   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.24    40.85R   13.34  
Sunderland       8    6   +0      43.22     8.15    -7.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.22     2.45    13.29R    2.91  
Bolton           8    6  -10      41.73     8.29   -22.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     1.84    19.62R    4.73  
Wigan            8    5   -8      32.12     7.54   -33.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    63.18R   30.25  
Blackburn        8    5   -9      37.34     8.00   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.42    36.69R   12.02  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 October 2011, Birmingham vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      11   23  +13      81.60    10.07    29.31    25.89    44.84    81.48    54.56P    0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham         11   21  +12      83.54     9.78    34.18    34.08    53.87    86.57    64.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   21   +8      74.02     9.37    15.58     6.67    16.15    55.57    25.36P    0.19R    0.01  
Derby            11   20   +3      63.33     9.25    -4.02     0.54     1.88    15.63     4.22P    3.26R    0.42  
Brighton         11   18   +2      61.00     9.67    -5.65     0.46     1.55    11.44     3.43P    6.64R    0.94  
Hull             11   18   +0      65.71     9.07     0.52     1.05     3.08    21.28     7.16P    1.63R    0.16  
Leeds_United     10   17   +5      71.07    10.02    11.97     4.43    11.53    43.93    18.63P    0.74R    0.08  
Crystal_Palace   11   17   +4      60.71     9.09    -1.83     0.26     0.96    10.08     2.53P    5.40R    0.74  
Cardiff          11   17   +3      72.09     9.58    13.58     4.83    12.34    47.84    21.94P    0.40R    0.03  
Ipswich          11   17   -2      62.38     9.51    -6.13     0.52     1.64    13.63     3.78P    4.81R    0.73  
Peterborough     11   16   +4      59.48    10.28    -5.14     0.48     1.50    10.82     3.11P   10.10R    1.89  
Blackpool        11   16   +3      71.78    10.22    14.63     5.63    13.73    47.06    22.92P    0.73R    0.09  
Leicester        11   16   +2      67.55     9.59     7.17     1.95     5.39    29.73    11.06P    1.43R    0.15  
Reading          11   15   +1      68.72     9.53     9.43     2.53     7.09    34.05    14.52P    0.88R    0.09  
Birmingham        9   14   +2      75.05    10.41    17.47     9.89    21.52    59.18    33.02P    0.31R    0.03  
Burnley          10   12   +0      61.57     9.66     0.01     0.46     1.60    13.07     4.22P    5.54R    0.92  
Portsmouth       11   12   -1      59.55     9.27    -1.27     0.18     0.76     8.34     2.44P    7.51R    1.25  
Barnsley         11   12   -2      53.39     9.07   -11.47     0.03     0.14     2.17     0.52P   21.09R    4.74  
Coventry         11   10   -5      50.45     8.89   -15.26     0.01     0.04     0.90     0.21P   31.98R    8.71  
Watford          11   10   -9      52.89     9.44   -17.78     0.04     0.16     2.32     0.54P   24.90R    6.40  
Millwall         11    8   -7      53.27     9.04   -10.24     0.02     0.08     1.97     0.52P   21.30R    4.94  
Doncaster        11    8  -11      42.22     8.63   -31.85     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   69.82R   35.88  
Nott'm_Forest    11    8  -12      54.08     9.32   -14.89     0.04     0.17     2.75     0.79P   20.17R    4.45  
Bristol_City     11    6  -13      44.04     8.96   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   61.14R   27.37  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 October 2011, Sheff_Utd vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        13   28  +13      83.68     9.25    28.59    17.73    37.79    85.22    50.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    13   27  +18      89.74     9.10    45.31    44.33    66.25    95.52    76.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       13   26   +6      77.44     9.39    15.01     5.86    15.72    63.66    26.33P    0.08R    0.00  
Notts_County    13   25   +9      72.28     9.24    11.90     1.93     6.18    41.99    13.10P    0.41R    0.01  
MK_Dons         13   23  +10      76.10     9.29    21.72     4.42    12.95    59.81    24.96P    0.13R    0.00  
Preston         11   22   +6      81.00    10.29    23.12    13.72    29.12    75.03    41.79P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       12   21   +7      80.10     9.80    25.73    10.38    25.10    73.80    40.49P    0.06R    0.00  
Brentford       13   21   +2      66.13     9.04     1.77     0.36     1.50    18.65     4.89P    2.23R    0.14  
Carlisle        13   21   +0      64.98     9.14    -2.54     0.33     1.28    15.75     4.06P    3.05R    0.23  
Hartlepool      12   19   +3      63.06     9.30    -1.24     0.20     0.86    11.93     2.90P    4.86R    0.38  
Tranmere        13   19   +2      63.36     8.96     1.06     0.13     0.65    11.96     2.90P    3.90R    0.27  
Colchester      13   18   +1      65.89     9.24     4.69     0.38     1.50    19.02     5.19P    2.47R    0.15  
Oldham          13   17   -5      58.20     8.96   -11.09     0.03     0.12     4.22     0.79P   12.39R    1.29  
Stevenage       13   16   +3      56.11     9.18    -4.65     0.02     0.13     3.26     0.66P   17.44R    2.40  
Walsall         13   14   -1      55.52     8.98    -6.85     0.02     0.08     2.49     0.54P   18.80R    2.54  
Bury            13   14   -7      50.65     9.11   -20.44     0.00     0.02     0.85     0.13P   38.68R    8.24  
Scunthorpe      13   13   -2      60.15     9.70     0.35     0.11     0.45     8.22     2.36P    9.75R    1.23  
Rochdale        13   13   -7      56.56     9.21   -10.35     0.01     0.10     3.16     0.74P   17.17R    2.52  
Wycombe         13   12   -6      49.30     9.17   -18.38     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.13P   43.62R   11.05  
Bournemouth     13   12   -8      56.20     9.17   -10.10     0.02     0.11     3.03     0.72P   17.92R    2.45  
Leyton_Orient   13   12  -11      52.51     9.09   -18.89     0.01     0.05     1.16     0.24P   30.67R    5.87  
Chesterfield    13   11   -8      47.16     9.16   -23.41     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.05P   53.64R   16.38  
Yeovil          13    9   -9      47.58     8.94   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P   51.07R   14.21  
Exeter          13    8  -16      43.11     8.70   -31.71     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   71.54R   30.64  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 October 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Crawley_Town         13   28   +6      74.50     9.82     7.48    10.00    29.51    60.88    35.27P    0.11R    0.02  
Southend             13   26   +9      80.95     9.24    23.59    26.63    56.52    84.82    64.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           13   23   +7      68.68     9.02     7.88     2.76    12.08    38.30    18.00P    0.30R    0.07  
Cheltenham           13   23   +5      65.39     9.17     0.18     1.40     6.83    25.38    10.01P    1.10R    0.31  
Shrewsbury           13   23   +3      76.27     9.16    14.88    11.98    35.82    69.81    45.10P    0.02R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   23   +2      60.30     9.36   -11.88     0.54     2.56    11.88     4.15P    4.09R    1.29  
Morecambe            13   22  +12      68.28     9.33    13.15     3.05    12.62    38.10    18.24P    0.46R    0.12  
Port_Vale            13   22  +10      73.22     9.25    18.92     7.54    25.58    58.94    34.52P    0.09R    0.01  
Gillingham           13   21   +8      74.50     9.26    20.56     9.86    30.38    64.26    39.98P    0.07R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        13   20   +1      63.36     9.26    -2.31     0.82     4.39    19.14     7.24P    1.93R    0.59  
Swindon              13   19   +7      77.58     9.56    27.39    17.44    44.19    75.16    55.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Macclesfield         13   18   +3      58.98     9.05    -3.83     0.29     1.71     9.23     3.20P    4.74R    1.43  
Rotherham            13   18   -1      68.87     9.48     7.46     3.13    13.51    39.86    20.35P    0.51R    0.13  
Bristol_Rovers       13   18   -3      64.58     9.63    -1.46     1.43     6.49    23.81    10.98P    1.71R    0.52  
Crewe                13   16   -2      66.14     9.47     5.20     1.77     8.45    29.32    13.90P    1.02R    0.27  
Torquay              13   15   -3      62.29     9.27    -0.25     0.63     3.66    16.86     7.09P    2.46R    0.75  
Northampton          13   15   -4      58.38     9.12    -7.16     0.19     1.50     8.36     3.09P    5.68R    1.92  
Accrington_Stanley   13   15   -5      59.29     9.14    -6.71     0.23     1.71     9.74     3.55P    4.75R    1.60  
Aldershot            13   14   -3      55.18     8.90    -8.88     0.06     0.54     4.14     1.39P    9.60R    3.59  
Dag_&_Red            13   13   -6      57.98     9.47    -6.42     0.24     1.56     8.43     3.42P    6.63R    2.39  
Barnet               13   12  -10      47.29     8.91   -26.90     0.01     0.04     0.57     0.13P   37.03R   19.17  
Bradford             13   10   -6      45.65     8.75   -21.25     0.00     0.03     0.34     0.10P   42.87R   22.93  
Hereford             13   10  -15      43.50     8.54   -33.14     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   55.63R   34.34  
Plymouth             13    8  -15      52.36     9.49   -16.51     0.01     0.32     2.53     0.88P   19.15R    8.56  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 October 2011, AFC_Telford vs Ebbsfleet_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            16   35  +18      88.29     8.19    36.56    29.44    90.99    47.76P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     16   31   +7      79.78     8.40    18.79     5.88    61.28    18.42P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              16   30  +16      91.34     7.94    48.83    49.35    95.87    68.74P    0.00     0.00  
York               16   30  +16      81.41     8.40    31.49     8.74    70.24    25.33P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          16   30   +3      71.18     8.63     2.61     0.80    22.30     3.77P    0.14R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      16   29   +9      74.22     8.49    15.18     1.72    35.79     8.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Southport          16   28   +1      65.04     8.55    -6.07     0.12     7.48     0.97P    0.76R    0.02  
Braintree_Town     16   26   +7      66.20     9.09     4.99     0.27    11.79     2.32P    0.70R    0.02  
Mansfield          15   26   +7      73.91     8.90    15.35     1.90    35.30     8.34P    0.04R    0.00  
Tamworth           15   25   +5      64.39     8.51     0.03     0.10     7.12     1.13P    0.83R    0.03  
Kidderminster      16   25   +4      73.12     8.62    14.66     1.21    31.49     7.62P    0.05R    0.00  
Barrow             16   23   -1      59.53     8.36    -8.93     0.02     2.02     0.28P    3.20R    0.12  
Darlington         16   22   -4      68.32     8.33     3.69     0.26    13.62     3.40P    0.24R    0.01  
Grimsby            16   20   -3      65.19     8.58     2.98     0.14     7.87     1.85P    0.84R    0.03  
AFC_Telford        16   18   -4      51.30     8.67   -16.23     0.00     0.25     0.04P   19.51R    2.00  
Kettering          16   18   -9      54.40     8.21   -16.74     0.00     0.43     0.05P   10.26R    0.67  
Forest_Green       16   17   +2      53.71     8.27    -4.83     0.00     0.45     0.07P   10.71R    0.78  
Hayes_&_Yeading    16   16   -8      47.90     8.25   -24.58     0.00     0.06     0.01P   32.82R    4.14  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   15   -3      50.12     8.74   -12.61     0.00     0.21     0.03P   23.28R    2.57  
Stockport          16   15   -6      61.42     8.91     2.08     0.05     4.17     0.94P    2.49R    0.14  
Lincoln_City       16   15   -9      56.67     8.72    -8.13     0.00     1.18     0.27P    7.25R    0.46  
Newport_County     16   11  -10      49.51     8.41   -14.82     0.00     0.09     0.01P   24.35R    3.15  
Alfreton_Town      16   10  -22      32.98     7.78   -54.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.84R   64.46  
Bath_City          16    7  -16      39.79     8.11   -29.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.65R   21.41