Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 7 October 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2011, Bolton vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   19  +19      89.35     7.37    69.71    66.58    89.21    97.73    99.40    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         7   19  +18      79.41     8.28    48.26    14.17    44.58    78.58    91.13    98.56     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   16   +9      81.39     7.97    47.38    17.87    55.98    84.61    94.14    99.17     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        7   15   +5      58.54     8.51     5.41     0.08     0.73     3.47    11.91    40.22     0.25R    0.02  
Liverpool        7   13   +2      66.46     8.52    18.64     0.72     4.63    16.05    41.04    76.92     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham        6   12   +1      64.63     8.85    14.63     0.43     3.21    11.53    32.33    68.79     0.06R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   11   +4      52.00     8.43     0.33     0.01     0.09     0.67     3.19    16.05     1.84R    0.24  
Stoke            7    9   -4      47.39     8.22   -11.10     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.82     6.28     5.83R    0.99  
Norwich          7    8   -3      39.39     8.55   -23.06     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.18     1.23    29.12R    9.05  
Swansea          7    8   -3      39.98     8.20   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     1.14    25.23R    7.11  
QPR              7    8   -8      35.84     7.97   -33.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.26    45.95R   17.36  
Fulham           7    7   +3      49.44     8.36     2.24     0.00     0.03     0.27     1.67    10.45     3.34R    0.51  
Everton          6    7   -2      52.60     8.79    -0.09     0.01     0.13     0.81     3.93    18.51     2.07R    0.28  
Wolverhampton    7    7   -4      38.08     7.92   -24.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.47    33.43R   10.30  
Arsenal          7    7   -6      61.26     8.72    13.25     0.14     1.38     6.03    19.32    55.59     0.16R    0.01  
Sunderland       7    6   +1      43.57     8.38    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.38     2.95    13.29R    3.04  
West_Brom        7    5   -5      41.49     8.53   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.28     1.94    20.57R    5.88  
Wigan            7    5   -6      34.40     7.91   -29.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17    51.38R   21.72  
Blackburn        7    4   -9      37.64     8.17   -26.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.46    36.06R   12.63  
Bolton           7    3  -12      38.80     8.50   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.86    31.40R   10.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2011, Nott'm_Forest vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      10   22  +13      82.56    10.38    30.22    30.75    49.13    82.98    58.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    10   20   +8      75.10     9.76    16.61     9.32    20.40    59.71    29.70P    0.17R    0.02  
Derby            10   19   +3      63.79     9.59    -3.97     0.85     2.69    17.29     5.11P    3.68R    0.53  
West_Ham         10   18   +8      79.74    10.20    26.73    21.19    37.69    75.72    49.70P    0.08R    0.00  
Brighton         10   17   +2      61.66    10.04    -5.46     0.68     2.04    13.79     4.13P    6.74R    1.30  
Hull             10   17   +0      65.93     9.27     0.18     1.11     3.46    22.52     7.47P    1.84R    0.24  
Blackpool        10   16   +7      75.15    10.38    21.81    11.25    22.94    60.16    33.80P    0.31R    0.02  
Leicester        10   16   +4      69.45     9.77    10.00     3.30     8.30    36.88    14.95P    1.06R    0.11  
Cardiff          10   16   +3      73.61     9.81    15.29     6.83    16.05    53.75    26.11P    0.36R    0.03  
Ipswich          10   16   -2      61.65     9.59    -7.88     0.49     1.58    12.43     3.45P    6.04R    1.00  
Leeds_United      9   14   +2      67.72    10.38     6.11     2.72     6.91    31.64    12.32P    2.16R    0.32  
Crystal_Palace   10   14   +2      57.37     9.28    -6.46     0.13     0.49     5.48     1.37P   12.01R    2.40  
Peterborough     10   13   +3      57.19    10.62    -7.49     0.34     1.15     8.25     2.50P   16.02R    4.38  
Burnley           9   12   +1      64.05     9.99     2.66     1.08     3.26    19.69     6.97P    4.01R    0.71  
Reading          10   12   +0      66.60     9.82     7.73     1.80     5.14    27.29    11.15P    1.92R    0.26  
Barnsley         10   12   +0      55.40     9.33    -8.51     0.09     0.32     3.80     0.97P   16.73R    4.06  
Birmingham        8   11   +0      72.68    10.99    14.44     7.74    17.10    50.27    27.09P    0.96R    0.14  
Watford          10   10   -7      55.68     9.80   -13.57     0.09     0.39     4.67     1.24P   18.11R    4.86  
Portsmouth       10    9   -3      57.21     9.46    -4.34     0.11     0.46     5.57     1.67P   12.66R    2.82  
Doncaster        10    8   -8      44.70     8.99   -27.24     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.05P   59.88R   28.37  
Nott'm_Forest    10    8  -11      56.10     9.63   -12.93     0.09     0.32     4.67     1.31P   16.64R    4.16  
Coventry         10    7   -6      48.51     9.12   -16.83     0.00     0.03     0.66     0.15P   41.93R   15.08  
Millwall         10    7   -7      53.03     9.28   -11.09     0.02     0.11     2.16     0.60P   23.99R    6.38  
Bristol_City     10    6  -12      46.34     9.33   -25.99     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.09P   52.68R   22.80  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2011, Brentford vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        11   27  +14      87.78     9.63    33.27    29.45    51.21    91.24    61.92P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         11   22  +11      79.49     9.69    25.17     8.18    19.84    70.23    32.81P    0.05R    0.00  
Preston         10   22   +7      83.80    10.67    26.70    19.53    36.06    80.44    48.20P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       11   22   +4      76.02     9.83    12.76     4.27    11.44    55.11    20.57P    0.24R    0.00  
Huddersfield    11   21  +13      86.14     9.56    39.41    24.69    45.51    89.03    60.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       11   20   +7      80.74    10.05    26.01    10.73    24.53    73.54    39.71P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool      10   19   +8      68.97     9.84     8.61     1.02     3.27    28.29     8.00P    1.47R    0.07  
Notts_County    11   19   +4      66.75     9.51     3.68     0.42     1.69    20.10     5.04P    2.15R    0.16  
Brentford       11   19   +2      66.60     9.45     1.26     0.45     1.53    19.49     4.81P    2.21R    0.14  
Carlisle        11   17   -3      62.23     9.50    -7.80     0.16     0.64     9.75     2.20P    6.13R    0.56  
Colchester      11   16   +1      67.41     9.62     5.93     0.53     2.04    22.69     6.45P    1.90R    0.08  
Tranmere        11   15   +1      60.87     9.40    -1.74     0.09     0.40     7.70     1.78P    7.27R    0.73  
Oldham          11   14   -5      57.39     9.31   -12.01     0.05     0.18     3.74     0.79P   14.49R    1.96  
Stevenage       11   13   +3      53.85     9.69    -8.04     0.01     0.07     2.15     0.46P   24.90R    4.81  
Scunthorpe      11   12   -1      63.07    10.37     3.18     0.32     1.13    13.78     4.16P    6.57R    0.80  
Chesterfield    11   11   -4      51.30     9.90   -16.85     0.01     0.05     1.31     0.24P   35.27R    8.76  
Rochdale        11   11   -7      56.56     9.63   -11.49     0.03     0.14     3.42     0.78P   17.35R    2.83  
Bury            11   11   -8      49.44     9.67   -23.35     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.12P   43.29R   11.98  
Walsall         11   10   -2      53.11     9.53    -9.91     0.01     0.05     1.63     0.37P   27.00R    5.60  
Bournemouth     11   10   -8      56.77     9.64   -10.40     0.04     0.16     3.83     0.96P   16.60R    2.58  
Yeovil          11    8   -6      50.04     9.33   -15.28     0.01     0.02     0.71     0.14P   38.62R    9.31  
Wycombe         11    8   -8      46.35     9.54   -22.92     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   55.23R   19.02  
Exeter          11    8  -10      47.79     9.27   -22.62     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.07P   49.17R   14.81  
Leyton_Orient   11    6  -13      47.60     9.47   -23.55     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.07P   49.98R   15.79  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             11   22   +7      79.32     9.57    21.02    21.84    49.68    78.89    57.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         11   22   +4      69.50    10.14     2.67     4.74    16.04    40.85    20.75P    0.45R    0.12  
Morecambe            11   21  +13      70.63     9.81    15.17     5.70    19.46    46.80    25.64P    0.20R    0.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   20   +3      59.23     9.93   -12.24     0.57     2.72    11.24     4.09P    4.89R    1.41  
Shrewsbury           11   20   +3      76.96     9.63    16.35    15.12    39.56    70.85    48.05P    0.02R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           11   19   +4      65.96     9.42     2.90     1.81     7.93    27.53    11.95P    0.69R    0.14  
Port_Vale            11   18   +7      70.53     9.59    13.78     4.96    18.17    46.45    25.29P    0.23R    0.05  
Rotherham            11   18   +3      74.31     9.87    15.82    10.52    30.55    61.14    38.43P    0.13R    0.03  
Gillingham           11   17   +5      71.77     9.63    15.28     6.51    21.84    51.59    30.04P    0.16R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        11   17   +2      63.42     9.69    -0.97     1.13     5.19    20.00     8.04P    1.73R    0.43  
Cheltenham           11   17   +2      60.29     9.52    -5.86     0.50     2.78    12.21     4.58P    3.32R    0.87  
Swindon              11   15   +5      76.78     9.98    26.05    16.68    41.08    71.20    51.68P    0.05R    0.01  
Torquay              11   15   +1      67.57     9.79     7.74     2.90    11.54    34.53    17.72P    0.71R    0.17  
Northampton          11   15   +0      63.23     9.57     0.10     1.06     5.11    19.73     8.50P    1.72R    0.44  
Bristol_Rovers       11   15   -3      63.81    10.18    -2.11     1.60     6.73    22.36    10.70P    1.92R    0.51  
Macclesfield         11   14   +2      56.52     9.44    -6.54     0.16     1.12     6.49     2.16P    7.04R    2.16  
Aldershot            11   14   -1      59.69     9.30    -4.10     0.37     2.12    10.55     4.07P    3.43R    0.92  
Accrington_Stanley   11   14   -3      61.76     9.53    -3.53     0.56     3.50    15.48     6.20P    2.39R    0.63  
Crewe                11   13   -2      66.43     9.89     6.09     2.27     9.86    30.71    15.23P    0.97R    0.25  
Dag_&_Red            11   13   -4      62.65     9.93    -1.34     0.98     4.69    18.61     8.37P    2.33R    0.59  
Barnet               11    9  -10      45.81     9.21   -28.58     0.00     0.04     0.46     0.11P   39.05R   18.56  
Bradford             11    7   -5      45.77     9.26   -19.74     0.00     0.04     0.54     0.13P   37.82R   17.89  
Hereford             11    6  -17      39.71     8.71   -38.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   67.36R   44.99  
Plymouth             11    4  -16      49.91     9.83   -19.00     0.02     0.24     1.75     0.69P   23.38R    9.77  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 6 October 2011, Cambridge_Utd vs Stockport; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            14   29  +12      83.35     8.69    27.93    16.92    75.27    32.76P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     13   27   +8      82.37     9.02    23.57    14.66    70.37    28.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          14   27   +6      70.63     8.95     5.21     1.16    21.30     4.24P    0.15R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     13   25  +12      72.79     9.90    15.92     3.16    32.11     8.94P    0.13R    0.01  
Kidderminster      13   24   +6      77.22     9.19    18.23     6.21    48.70    15.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Luton              13   23  +11      89.39     8.58    44.57    45.27    91.77    64.12P    0.00     0.00  
York               13   23  +11      77.43     9.04    24.80     5.87    50.90    17.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield          13   23   +8      75.63     9.25    19.61     4.34    42.32    12.20P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      14   23   +5      70.17     8.74    10.30     0.93    20.12     4.89P    0.14R    0.01  
Southport          13   21   -4      57.92     8.95   -17.79     0.04     1.73     0.22P    5.53R    0.42  
Tamworth           13   19   +0      58.12     8.78    -9.40     0.03     1.79     0.30P    4.46R    0.28  
Barrow             13   17   -1      57.38     8.97    -8.89     0.01     1.59     0.23P    5.76R    0.41  
AFC_Telford        13   17   -1      55.05     9.60   -12.07     0.02     1.39     0.24P   10.73R    1.00  
Grimsby            13   17   -4      65.85     9.24     1.40     0.40    10.40     2.51P    0.86R    0.04  
Forest_Green       13   16   +5      57.80     9.04    -0.43     0.05     2.12     0.42P    5.02R    0.34  
Darlington         13   16   -4      66.75     8.96     4.28     0.38    11.39     3.12P    0.51R    0.02  
Stockport          14   15   -1      66.12     9.23    10.19     0.43    11.58     3.36P    0.82R    0.04  
Hayes_&_Yeading    13   13   -6      48.30     8.90   -23.63     0.00     0.14     0.02P   29.13R    4.52  
Lincoln_City       13   12   -5      61.02     9.39     0.97     0.11     4.32     1.16P    2.98R    0.22  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   11   -4      47.24     9.64   -18.57     0.00     0.15     0.02P   34.67R    6.48  
Kettering          13   11  -11      50.76     8.90   -19.86     0.00     0.20     0.03P   20.23R    2.77  
Alfreton_Town      13    9  -17      35.51     8.50   -49.67     0.00     0.01     0.00    83.22R   46.21  
Newport_County     13    8   -9      51.33     9.01   -12.27     0.00     0.31     0.06P   17.53R    2.51  
Bath_City          13    3  -17      36.96     8.55   -34.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.05R   34.72