Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 6 October 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2011, Bolton vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   19  +19      89.36     7.43    69.83    66.25    89.21    97.68    99.37    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         7   19  +18      79.49     8.31    48.29    14.28    44.51    78.72    91.15    98.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   16   +9      81.50     7.97    47.60    18.15    56.48    84.91    94.27    99.22     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        7   15   +5      58.63     8.54     5.52     0.08     0.70     3.49    12.27    40.80     0.21R    0.01  
Liverpool        7   13   +2      66.26     8.51    18.30     0.63     4.29    15.37    39.90    76.38     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        6   12   +1      64.71     8.89    14.77     0.49     3.31    11.97    32.93    69.10     0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   11   +4      52.05     8.52     0.44     0.01     0.12     0.74     3.44    16.49     1.87R    0.28  
Stoke            7    9   -4      47.25     8.22   -11.31     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.78     6.07     6.07R    1.02  
Norwich          7    8   -3      39.29     8.53   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     1.23    29.42R    9.31  
Swansea          7    8   -3      40.07     8.35   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16     1.33    25.28R    7.25  
QPR              7    8   -8      35.69     7.94   -33.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25    46.37R   17.55  
Fulham           7    7   +3      49.58     8.37     2.50     0.00     0.02     0.26     1.77    10.75     3.41R    0.50  
Everton          6    7   -2      52.50     8.86    -0.22     0.01     0.11     0.84     3.95    18.56     2.10R    0.30  
Wolverhampton    7    7   -4      37.85     7.93   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.45    34.21R   11.05  
Arsenal          7    7   -6      61.08     8.70    12.90     0.10     1.25     5.81    19.14    54.16     0.18R    0.02  
Sunderland       7    6   +1      43.65     8.39    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.35     3.08    13.02R    3.07  
West_Brom        7    5   -5      41.60     8.58   -17.38     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.23     2.07    20.15R    5.62  
Wigan            7    5   -6      34.56     7.90   -28.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19    50.62R   20.98  
Blackburn        7    4   -9      37.56     8.19   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.50    36.36R   12.76  
Bolton           7    3  -12      38.98     8.53   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.95    30.67R   10.29  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2011, Nott'm_Forest vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      10   22  +13      82.64    10.29    30.37    30.73    49.39    83.12    57.89P    0.02R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    10   20   +8      75.23     9.69    16.83     9.47    20.30    60.34    30.07P    0.16R    0.01  
Derby            10   19   +3      63.71     9.54    -4.07     0.84     2.50    17.05     4.91P    3.55R    0.48  
West_Ham         10   18   +8      79.65    10.18    26.67    20.75    37.39    75.25    49.36P    0.07R    0.01  
Brighton         10   17   +2      61.90     9.93    -5.06     0.70     2.10    13.75     4.17P    6.10R    1.08  
Hull             10   17   +0      65.80     9.30    -0.03     1.13     3.47    21.94     7.32P    1.92R    0.20  
Blackpool        10   16   +7      75.02    10.42    21.60    11.15    22.35    59.40    33.03P    0.32R    0.03  
Leicester        10   16   +4      69.56     9.84    10.18     3.21     8.52    37.34    15.61P    1.01R    0.10  
Cardiff          10   16   +3      73.58     9.77    15.26     6.57    15.97    53.61    26.17P    0.35R    0.04  
Ipswich          10   16   -2      61.34     9.60    -8.33     0.45     1.42    11.61     3.09P    6.47R    1.21  
Leeds_United      9   14   +2      67.74    10.33     6.11     2.67     7.05    31.54    12.38P    2.14R    0.33  
Crystal_Palace   10   14   +2      57.41     9.30    -6.35     0.14     0.48     5.73     1.41P   11.74R    2.31  
Peterborough     10   13   +3      56.81    10.57    -8.13     0.38     1.07     7.48     2.28P   16.71R    4.43  
Burnley           9   12   +1      63.89     9.97     2.38     1.08     3.08    18.90     6.70P    4.14R    0.68  
Reading          10   12   +0      66.87     9.84     8.19     1.96     5.30    28.06    11.52P    1.86R    0.22  
Barnsley         10   12   +0      55.49     9.32    -8.36     0.06     0.29     3.83     0.95P   16.43R    3.77  
Birmingham        8   11   +0      73.27    10.85    15.32     8.36    17.91    52.47    28.10P    0.72R    0.12  
Watford          10   10   -7      55.85     9.79   -13.26     0.09     0.43     4.75     1.20P   17.43R    4.47  
Portsmouth       10    9   -3      57.15     9.52    -4.46     0.14     0.47     5.63     1.62P   12.85R    2.83  
Doncaster        10    8   -8      44.53     9.04   -27.54     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.03P   60.28R   28.69  
Nott'm_Forest    10    8  -11      56.09     9.67   -12.98     0.10     0.35     4.61     1.36P   16.49R    4.15  
Coventry         10    7   -6      48.45     9.18   -16.96     0.00     0.03     0.74     0.17P   42.15R   15.17  
Millwall         10    7   -7      53.00     9.37   -11.17     0.02     0.12     2.22     0.56P   24.14R    6.69  
Bristol_City     10    6  -12      46.20     9.28   -26.20     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.09P   52.94R   22.95  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2011, Brentford vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        11   27  +14      87.58     9.64    32.96    28.67    50.10    90.85    60.91P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         11   22  +11      79.54     9.74    25.37     8.37    20.10    70.28    32.92P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         10   22   +7      83.73    10.66    26.59    19.17    35.58    80.18    47.79P    0.04R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   22   +4      76.19     9.89    13.05     4.69    11.97    55.90    21.35P    0.22R    0.00  
Huddersfield    11   21  +13      86.27     9.53    39.59    25.27    46.34    89.23    61.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       11   20   +7      80.67    10.11    25.93    10.75    24.61    73.20    39.51P    0.06R    0.00  
Hartlepool      10   19   +8      68.76     9.84     8.32     0.97     3.08    27.58     7.57P    1.49R    0.09  
Notts_County    11   19   +4      66.92     9.50     3.84     0.47     1.77    20.64     5.26P    2.01R    0.16  
Brentford       11   19   +2      66.68     9.57     1.41     0.46     1.71    20.03     5.28P    2.31R    0.16  
Carlisle        11   17   -3      62.10     9.51    -8.01     0.15     0.61     9.49     2.18P    6.26R    0.57  
Colchester      11   16   +1      67.33     9.77     5.84     0.61     2.10    22.64     6.45P    2.18R    0.15  
Tranmere        11   15   +1      60.99     9.34    -1.57     0.07     0.36     7.84     1.82P    7.05R    0.64  
Oldham          11   14   -5      57.16     9.38   -12.30     0.02     0.15     3.61     0.75P   15.21R    2.08  
Stevenage       11   13   +3      53.96     9.65    -7.85     0.02     0.10     2.26     0.46P   24.54R    4.57  
Scunthorpe      11   12   -1      63.18    10.20     3.40     0.21     0.97    13.71     3.95P    6.04R    0.69  
Chesterfield    11   11   -4      51.05     9.87   -17.33     0.01     0.05     1.27     0.28P   36.24R    9.04  
Rochdale        11   11   -7      56.66     9.66   -11.34     0.03     0.13     3.60     0.75P   17.33R    2.91  
Bury            11   11   -8      49.83     9.70   -22.77     0.00     0.02     0.91     0.16P   41.59R   11.18  
Walsall         11   10   -2      53.10     9.45    -9.87     0.02     0.06     1.62     0.33P   27.05R    5.25  
Bournemouth     11   10   -8      56.61     9.61   -10.70     0.04     0.15     3.46     0.86P   17.10R    2.71  
Yeovil          11    8   -6      50.12     9.33   -15.20     0.00     0.02     0.69     0.15P   38.43R    9.30  
Wycombe         11    8   -8      46.13     9.57   -23.34     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.05P   56.04R   20.12  
Exeter          11    8  -10      47.80     9.23   -22.62     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P   49.14R   14.82  
Leyton_Orient   11    6  -13      47.70     9.58   -23.40     0.00     0.02     0.46     0.09P   49.60R   15.55  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             11   22   +7      78.95     9.65    20.47    20.89    48.28    77.58    55.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         11   22   +4      69.41    10.22     2.52     4.88    16.07    40.71    20.77P    0.48R    0.09  
Morecambe            11   21  +13      70.96     9.69    15.73     6.16    20.17    48.36    26.55P    0.16R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   20   +3      59.25     9.89   -12.30     0.60     2.75    11.13     4.12P    4.75R    1.26  
Shrewsbury           11   20   +3      76.93     9.60    16.32    15.16    39.48    70.90    47.96P    0.04R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           11   19   +4      65.89     9.43     2.77     1.71     7.86    27.09    11.83P    0.71R    0.15  
Port_Vale            11   18   +7      70.86     9.59    14.25     5.33    19.04    48.01    26.42P    0.22R    0.03  
Rotherham            11   18   +3      74.45     9.81    15.98    10.85    30.84    61.92    38.87P    0.10R    0.02  
Gillingham           11   17   +5      71.49     9.62    14.86     6.08    21.12    50.39    29.31P    0.15R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        11   17   +2      63.46     9.63    -0.90     0.99     5.14    20.10     8.14P    1.74R    0.40  
Cheltenham           11   17   +2      60.22     9.55    -5.83     0.57     2.79    12.11     4.41P    3.52R    0.88  
Swindon              11   15   +5      76.71     9.94    26.03    16.65    41.26    71.10    51.58P    0.07R    0.02  
Torquay              11   15   +1      67.62     9.62     7.83     2.76    11.35    34.61    17.46P    0.66R    0.15  
Northampton          11   15   +0      63.19     9.65     0.07     1.14     5.28    19.48     8.73P    1.77R    0.43  
Bristol_Rovers       11   15   -3      64.42    10.15    -1.10     1.81     7.45    24.07    11.84P    1.78R    0.49  
Macclesfield         11   14   +2      56.64     9.34    -6.32     0.19     1.14     6.27     2.15P    6.85R    2.00  
Aldershot            11   14   -1      59.60     9.28    -4.25     0.35     2.07    10.57     3.94P    3.50R    0.94  
Accrington_Stanley   11   14   -3      61.60     9.50    -3.79     0.63     3.45    15.02     6.11P    2.51R    0.63  
Crewe                11   13   -2      66.11     9.89     5.57     2.19     9.27    29.45    14.49P    1.03R    0.24  
Dag_&_Red            11   13   -4      62.51     9.96    -1.56     1.04     4.85    18.30     8.39P    2.46R    0.63  
Barnet               11    9  -10      45.66     9.23   -28.82     0.01     0.05     0.48     0.11P   39.73R   19.08  
Bradford             11    7   -5      45.92     9.33   -19.58     0.01     0.07     0.59     0.18P   37.46R   17.44  
Hereford             11    6  -17      39.66     8.78   -39.03     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   67.43R   45.56  
Plymouth             11    4  -16      49.99     9.77   -18.89     0.03     0.23     1.71     0.67P   22.86R    9.50  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 6 October 2011, Cambridge_Utd vs Stockport; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            14   29  +12      83.39     8.69    27.96    17.15    75.74    32.75P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     13   27   +8      82.36     9.10    23.53    14.79    70.61    28.47P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          14   27   +6      70.46     8.93     5.00     1.26    20.40     4.31P    0.16R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     13   25  +12      72.71     9.88    15.79     3.06    31.87     8.63P    0.14R    0.01  
Kidderminster      13   24   +6      77.07     9.27    17.98     5.92    48.54    15.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Luton              13   23  +11      89.39     8.62    44.57    44.97    91.55    64.05P    0.00     0.00  
York               13   23  +11      77.63     9.06    25.08     6.20    51.68    18.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield          13   23   +8      75.45     9.28    19.28     4.31    41.96    11.94P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      14   23   +5      70.23     8.80    10.32     1.05    20.59     4.81P    0.12R    0.01  
Southport          13   21   -4      57.99     8.84   -17.72     0.02     1.77     0.23P    5.38R    0.38  
Tamworth           13   19   +0      58.04     8.80    -9.54     0.02     1.80     0.28P    4.71R    0.34  
Barrow             13   17   -1      57.26     9.01    -9.04     0.03     1.73     0.31P    5.84R    0.44  
AFC_Telford        13   17   -1      54.88     9.56   -12.35     0.02     1.40     0.25P   11.39R    1.21  
Grimsby            13   17   -4      65.79     9.20     1.23     0.35    10.25     2.40P    0.83R    0.05  
Forest_Green       13   16   +5      57.94     9.01    -0.22     0.04     2.20     0.41P    4.93R    0.34  
Darlington         13   16   -4      66.62     8.86     4.09     0.31    10.96     2.91P    0.50R    0.02  
Stockport          14   15   -1      66.05     9.25    10.08     0.40    11.64     3.38P    0.82R    0.05  
Hayes_&_Yeading    13   13   -6      48.42     8.95   -23.41     0.00     0.15     0.03P   29.23R    4.70  
Lincoln_City       13   12   -5      61.00     9.45     0.91     0.09     4.41     1.16P    3.14R    0.24  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   11   -4      47.57     9.52   -18.04     0.01     0.20     0.03P   33.25R    6.08  
Kettering          13   11  -11      50.73     8.92   -19.92     0.00     0.23     0.03P   20.64R    2.84  
Alfreton_Town      13    9  -17      35.57     8.45   -49.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.41R   46.84  
Newport_County     13    8   -9      51.27     9.06   -12.42     0.00     0.30     0.05P   18.12R    2.74  
Bath_City          13    3  -17      37.27     8.54   -33.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.32R   33.72