Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 3 October 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2011, Bolton vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   19  +19      89.38     7.40    69.77    66.70    89.51    97.74    99.46    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         7   19  +18      79.39     8.26    48.20    14.25    44.45    78.48    91.14    98.48     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   16   +9      81.35     7.98    47.33    17.70    55.77    84.40    94.04    99.12     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        7   15   +5      58.64     8.55     5.52     0.09     0.77     3.52    12.09    40.65     0.25R    0.02  
Liverpool        7   13   +2      66.50     8.50    18.69     0.68     4.64    16.03    41.09    77.06     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham        6   12   +1      64.64     8.93    14.70     0.43     3.24    11.75    31.99    68.64     0.07R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   11   +4      51.91     8.53     0.23     0.01     0.11     0.69     3.30    16.06     1.96R    0.21  
Stoke            7    9   -4      47.32     8.24   -11.14     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.81     5.95     6.05R    1.01  
Norwich          7    8   -3      39.49     8.58   -22.90     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     1.36    28.66R    8.71  
Swansea          7    8   -3      40.02     8.33   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     1.19    25.22R    7.25  
QPR              7    8   -8      35.66     7.92   -33.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.23    46.45R   17.79  
Fulham           7    7   +3      49.49     8.37     2.32     0.00     0.02     0.27     1.74    10.41     3.45R    0.47  
Everton          6    7   -2      52.60     8.81    -0.07     0.01     0.12     0.76     3.90    18.92     2.03R    0.26  
Wolverhampton    7    7   -4      38.08     7.96   -24.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.48    33.20R   10.42  
Arsenal          7    7   -6      61.19     8.71    13.08     0.14     1.36     6.11    19.38    55.10     0.16R    0.02  
Sunderland       7    6   +1      43.68     8.36    -8.28     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.36     2.92    12.94R    2.98  
West_Brom        7    5   -5      41.48     8.64   -17.63     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.26     2.02    20.76R    6.03  
Wigan            7    5   -6      34.55     7.79   -28.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16    50.71R   20.87  
Blackburn        7    4   -9      37.53     8.23   -27.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.44    36.23R   13.17  
Bolton           7    3  -12      38.75     8.55   -26.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.85    31.82R   10.79  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2011, Nott'm_Forest vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      10   22  +13      82.52    10.30    30.15    30.95    48.96    83.09    57.58P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    10   20   +8      75.07     9.67    16.62     9.09    20.12    59.63    29.67P    0.18R    0.01  
Derby            10   19   +3      63.64     9.53    -4.22     0.78     2.53    16.70     4.84P    3.86R    0.54  
West_Ham         10   18   +8      79.51    10.26    26.34    20.69    37.17    75.00    48.95P    0.10R    0.01  
Brighton         10   17   +2      61.59     9.96    -5.49     0.67     1.96    13.38     4.04P    6.65R    1.25  
Hull             10   17   +0      66.00     9.36     0.24     1.31     3.75    22.85     7.75P    1.83R    0.22  
Blackpool        10   16   +7      75.16    10.38    21.89    11.45    23.01    60.11    33.85P    0.34R    0.03  
Leicester        10   16   +4      69.58     9.80    10.21     3.33     8.74    37.59    15.66P    0.97R    0.12  
Cardiff          10   16   +3      73.58     9.78    15.26     6.82    16.31    53.49    26.28P    0.33R    0.03  
Ipswich          10   16   -2      61.47     9.62    -8.14     0.46     1.47    11.86     3.19P    6.38R    1.13  
Leeds_United      9   14   +2      67.44    10.35     5.65     2.58     6.70    30.55    11.89P    2.40R    0.34  
Crystal_Palace   10   14   +2      57.35     9.32    -6.50     0.12     0.48     5.65     1.37P   12.17R    2.57  
Peterborough     10   13   +3      57.15    10.59    -7.65     0.35     1.04     8.10     2.31P   16.15R    4.30  
Burnley           9   12   +1      63.85     9.99     2.34     0.95     3.04    19.19     6.81P    4.17R    0.68  
Reading          10   12   +0      67.10     9.88     8.53     2.04     5.71    29.19    12.27P    1.93R    0.27  
Barnsley         10   12   +0      55.33     9.38    -8.56     0.07     0.30     3.82     0.92P   17.14R    4.25  
Birmingham        8   11   +0      72.88    10.89    14.67     7.95    17.29    51.06    27.48P    0.88R    0.12  
Watford          10   10   -7      55.99     9.77   -13.07     0.10     0.39     4.86     1.25P   17.28R    4.53  
Portsmouth       10    9   -3      57.22     9.54    -4.36     0.14     0.48     5.67     1.67P   12.98R    2.90  
Doncaster        10    8   -8      44.79     9.03   -27.00     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.05P   59.91R   28.18  
Nott'm_Forest    10    8  -11      56.10     9.58   -12.95     0.11     0.34     4.61     1.28P   16.29R    3.96  
Coventry         10    7   -6      48.49     9.12   -16.88     0.01     0.03     0.66     0.16P   41.84R   15.15  
Millwall         10    7   -7      52.98     9.34   -11.22     0.04     0.15     2.22     0.61P   24.42R    6.69  
Bristol_City     10    6  -12      46.49     9.45   -25.86     0.01     0.03     0.48     0.12P   51.79R   22.72  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2011, Brentford vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        11   27  +14      87.69     9.63    33.16    28.63    50.05    90.89    60.66P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         11   22  +11      79.65     9.70    25.47     8.22    20.12    70.61    33.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Preston         10   22   +7      84.15    10.59    27.29    19.98    37.02    81.35    49.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       11   22   +4      76.09     9.84    12.89     4.26    11.20    55.36    20.86P    0.25R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   21  +13      86.37     9.54    39.80    25.18    46.34    89.26    60.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       11   20   +7      80.87    10.00    26.26    10.85    24.48    73.72    39.77P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool      10   19   +8      68.76     9.85     8.34     0.93     3.03    27.18     7.53P    1.54R    0.07  
Notts_County    11   19   +4      66.97     9.51     3.94     0.42     1.64    20.76     5.05P    2.12R    0.15  
Brentford       11   19   +2      66.78     9.61     1.51     0.47     1.66    20.06     5.18P    2.19R    0.17  
Carlisle        11   17   -3      61.88     9.59    -8.37     0.13     0.53     9.31     1.97P    6.76R    0.66  
Colchester      11   16   +1      67.34     9.77     5.87     0.52     2.00    22.81     6.35P    2.06R    0.13  
Tranmere        11   15   +1      61.13     9.33    -1.40     0.07     0.36     7.72     1.82P    6.73R    0.64  
Oldham          11   14   -5      57.09     9.40   -12.44     0.02     0.14     3.53     0.70P   15.38R    2.13  
Stevenage       11   13   +3      53.74     9.66    -8.24     0.02     0.09     2.19     0.48P   24.94R    4.79  
Scunthorpe      11   12   -1      62.90    10.17     2.92     0.24     0.95    12.85     3.60P    6.27R    0.74  
Chesterfield    11   11   -4      51.43     9.90   -16.64     0.00     0.03     1.42     0.27P   34.62R    8.44  
Rochdale        11   11   -7      56.51     9.68   -11.60     0.03     0.14     3.44     0.75P   17.47R    2.97  
Bury            11   11   -8      49.62     9.65   -23.04     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.13P   41.95R   11.57  
Walsall         11   10   -2      53.08     9.42    -9.96     0.00     0.04     1.56     0.34P   26.68R    5.12  
Bournemouth     11   10   -8      56.67     9.69   -10.53     0.03     0.14     3.60     0.82P   16.89R    2.69  
Yeovil          11    8   -6      50.12     9.37   -15.26     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.15P   38.26R    9.32  
Wycombe         11    8   -8      45.96     9.54   -23.65     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P   56.59R   20.13  
Exeter          11    8  -10      47.90     9.22   -22.47     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.07P   48.60R   14.26  
Leyton_Orient   11    6  -13      47.45     9.42   -23.85     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.08P   50.55R   16.03  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             11   22   +7      79.17     9.56    20.77    21.27    48.78    78.31    56.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         11   22   +4      69.53    10.22     2.66     4.93    16.37    41.07    20.85P    0.48R    0.10  
Morecambe            11   21  +13      70.94     9.84    15.58     6.31    20.22    48.32    26.51P    0.22R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   20   +3      59.02     9.87   -12.65     0.53     2.51    10.48     3.77P    5.17R    1.46  
Shrewsbury           11   20   +3      76.86     9.57    16.26    14.70    39.17    70.49    47.78P    0.04R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           11   19   +4      66.03     9.39     2.96     1.73     8.02    27.43    11.96P    0.71R    0.14  
Port_Vale            11   18   +7      70.84     9.70    14.24     5.62    19.37    47.41    26.78P    0.19R    0.04  
Rotherham            11   18   +3      74.47     9.77    15.99    10.64    30.71    62.13    38.98P    0.11R    0.02  
Gillingham           11   17   +5      71.61     9.60    15.02     6.18    20.93    50.85    29.09P    0.14R    0.03  
Burton_Albion        11   17   +2      63.47     9.66    -0.90     1.03     5.46    20.15     8.28P    1.74R    0.46  
Cheltenham           11   17   +2      60.31     9.48    -5.72     0.47     2.73    12.08     4.44P    3.41R    0.95  
Swindon              11   15   +5      76.70    10.02    25.95    16.55    40.78    70.92    51.24P    0.06R    0.01  
Torquay              11   15   +1      67.63     9.65     7.89     2.93    11.46    34.51    17.60P    0.61R    0.13  
Northampton          11   15   +0      63.02     9.58    -0.24     0.99     4.85    19.01     8.02P    1.74R    0.42  
Bristol_Rovers       11   15   -3      64.19    10.10    -1.46     1.64     7.12    23.29    11.25P    1.72R    0.42  
Macclesfield         11   14   +2      56.52     9.29    -6.47     0.16     1.02     6.08     2.02P    6.82R    2.07  
Aldershot            11   14   -1      59.58     9.39    -4.28     0.36     2.23    10.70     4.23P    3.76R    1.03  
Accrington_Stanley   11   14   -3      61.66     9.61    -3.68     0.66     3.56    15.30     6.32P    2.67R    0.69  
Crewe                11   13   -2      66.37     9.86     5.98     2.28     9.63    30.44    15.02P    0.98R    0.24  
Dag_&_Red            11   13   -4      62.44     9.94    -1.71     1.00     4.80    18.32     8.40P    2.48R    0.66  
Barnet               11    9  -10      45.67     9.15   -28.76     0.00     0.03     0.44     0.09P   39.46R   19.08  
Bradford             11    7   -5      46.06     9.26   -19.26     0.01     0.06     0.56     0.18P   36.47R   16.97  
Hereford             11    6  -17      39.76     8.72   -38.94     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   67.03R   44.84  
Plymouth             11    4  -16      49.74     9.75   -19.23     0.01     0.19     1.64     0.59P   23.98R   10.18  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2011, AFC_Telford vs Hayes_&_Yeading; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Gateshead          13   27   +9      72.95     9.14     9.85     2.47    30.48     6.99P    0.07R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     13   27   +8      82.36     9.07    23.49    15.77    70.23    29.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham            13   26   +9      80.39     8.91    22.87    10.69    63.47    24.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     13   25  +12      72.72     9.81    15.84     3.14    31.90     8.81P    0.18R    0.00  
Kidderminster      13   24   +6      76.99     9.21    17.93     6.10    47.74    15.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Luton              13   23  +11      89.44     8.55    44.59    47.79    91.78    65.97P    0.00     0.00  
York               13   23  +11      77.60     9.00    25.04     6.42    51.94    18.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield          13   23   +8      75.37     9.31    19.17     4.63    41.40    12.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      13   22   +5      70.93     8.93    10.80     1.47    23.13     6.00P    0.14R    0.00  
Southport          13   21   -4      57.93     8.88   -17.78     0.04     1.80     0.28P    5.47R    0.36  
Tamworth           13   19   +0      57.98     8.82    -9.61     0.02     1.83     0.28P    4.82R    0.36  
Barrow             13   17   -1      57.29     8.97    -8.96     0.02     1.73     0.28P    5.78R    0.47  
AFC_Telford        13   17   -1      54.95     9.46   -12.15     0.03     1.27     0.25P   10.86R    1.08  
Grimsby            13   17   -4      65.86     9.08     1.46     0.37    10.10     2.45P    0.74R    0.03  
Forest_Green       13   16   +5      57.84     8.88    -0.30     0.04     1.84     0.33P    4.78R    0.35  
Darlington         13   16   -4      66.71     8.87     4.25     0.35    11.25     3.06P    0.55R    0.01  
Stockport          13   14   -1      66.30     9.52     9.88     0.52    12.93     3.81P    0.92R    0.08  
Hayes_&_Yeading    13   13   -6      48.39     8.76   -23.41     0.00     0.13     0.02P   29.04R    4.49  
Lincoln_City       13   12   -5      61.08     9.33     1.04     0.12     4.35     1.20P    2.99R    0.23  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   11   -4      47.17     9.40   -18.72     0.00     0.15     0.02P   34.46R    6.47  
Kettering          13   11  -11      50.79     8.86   -19.72     0.00     0.24     0.02P   20.35R    2.82  
Alfreton_Town      13    9  -17      35.72     8.59   -49.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.67R   45.58  
Newport_County     13    8   -9      51.21     9.02   -12.42     0.00     0.32     0.07P   18.15R    2.72  
Bath_City          13    3  -17      37.04     8.52   -34.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.96R   34.93