Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 29 September 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 September 2011, Norwich vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          6   16  +17      89.80     7.42    72.58    76.16    93.58    98.59    99.63    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         6   16  +14      76.49     8.64    41.39     9.84    40.54    72.54    86.59    96.91     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          6   13   +5      78.65     8.31    40.29    12.60    52.17    80.01    91.07    98.37     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        6   12   +4      56.76     8.79     4.20     0.07     0.91     3.79    11.25    35.64     0.82R    0.09  
Liverpool        6   10   +0      63.90     8.70    15.05     0.50     4.44    14.72    34.18    68.71     0.09R    0.01  
Tottenham        5    9   +0      62.62     9.14    12.96     0.39     3.66    12.40    29.65    62.04     0.18R    0.02  
Stoke            6    9   -2      49.32     8.43    -7.94     0.00     0.07     0.46     2.02    10.59     4.76R    0.77  
Aston_Villa      6    8   +2      50.53     8.74    -1.43     0.01     0.17     0.92     3.35    14.52     3.71R    0.64  
Norwich          6    8   -1      38.82     8.67   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.21     1.45    35.09R   12.27  
QPR              6    8   -2      40.03     8.38   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.38    28.69R    8.80  
Everton          5    7   +0      55.32     9.06     4.14     0.05     0.68     3.07     9.66    30.60     1.30R    0.16  
Wolverhampton    6    7   -3      39.71     8.24   -23.03     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.13     1.15    29.99R    9.46  
Arsenal          6    7   -5      62.65     8.94    14.19     0.36     3.72    12.96    29.84    63.15     0.18R    0.02  
Sunderland       6    5   +1      44.30     8.54    -7.64     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.65     4.22    13.66R    3.20  
Wigan            6    5   -4      35.66     8.04   -27.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.30    48.68R   19.96  
Swansea          6    5   -5      37.07     8.40   -22.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.66    41.32R   16.14  
Fulham           6    4   -3      45.45     8.43    -7.12     0.00     0.02     0.17     0.83     4.97    10.51R    2.33  
Blackburn        6    4   -5      39.95     8.50   -20.79     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.17     1.31    29.12R    9.57  
West_Brom        6    4   -5      40.87     8.70   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.29     2.09    25.81R    8.06  
Bolton           6    3   -8      40.89     8.80   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.24     1.97    26.10R    8.51  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 September 2011, Cardiff vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton       9   19   +9      78.69    10.93    22.62    21.14    36.56    71.97    45.55P    0.26R    0.03  
Middlesbrough     9   19   +8      74.95     9.97    15.87    10.58    22.32    60.28    31.46P    0.27R    0.02  
Derby             9   19   +7      66.63     9.94     2.45     2.27     5.98    28.06    10.05P    2.31R    0.27  
West_Ham          9   17   +8      81.11    10.36    27.94    28.16    46.08    80.24    56.90P    0.07R    0.00  
Brighton          9   17   +4      64.26    10.44    -1.29     1.81     4.59    21.74     7.88P    4.82R    0.77  
Cardiff           9   16   +4      75.56    10.02    17.13    11.20    23.70    63.03    34.74P    0.25R    0.03  
Hull              9   14   -1      63.52     9.52    -1.73     0.88     2.61    17.49     5.81P    4.08R    0.60  
Peterborough      9   13   +4      60.20    11.09    -3.46     1.05     2.70    14.71     4.98P   11.59R    2.70  
Crystal_Palace    9   13   +2      56.83     9.47    -7.39     0.15     0.58     5.80     1.50P   14.61R    2.99  
Blackpool         9   13   +2      71.32    10.88    13.27     7.09    15.48    46.88    24.61P    1.43R    0.22  
Leicester         9   13   +0      66.10    10.05     3.45     2.02     5.38    26.71    10.18P    2.86R    0.44  
Ipswich           9   13   -4      58.88     9.82   -11.41     0.33     1.04     8.85     2.41P   11.57R    2.36  
Leeds_United      8   11   +1      65.79    10.79     4.53     2.44     6.32    27.58    11.18P    4.29R    0.76  
Reading           9   11   +0      67.49    10.16     8.52     3.09     7.45    32.48    14.43P    2.13R    0.26  
Watford           9   10   -3      58.87    10.09    -6.47     0.39     1.31     9.78     3.09P   11.76R    2.51  
Burnley           8    9   +0      61.89    10.35     0.92     0.90     2.71    16.29     6.08P    7.23R    1.43  
Portsmouth        9    9   -2      58.82     9.82    -2.98     0.31     1.00     9.12     2.72P   10.89R    2.25  
Barnsley          9    9   -2      52.80     9.54   -11.65     0.06     0.20     2.55     0.62P   26.78R    7.16  
Birmingham        7    8   -2      69.65    11.16    10.19     5.73    12.48    41.14    21.24P    2.12R    0.31  
Nott'm_Forest     9    8   -9      58.36     9.90    -9.43     0.25     0.93     8.21     2.66P   12.59R    2.52  
Coventry          9    7   -4      50.65     9.48   -13.44     0.01     0.10     1.46     0.34P   34.42R   10.80  
Millwall          9    7   -6      55.18     9.66    -8.90     0.11     0.38     4.30     1.23P   19.13R    4.55  
Bristol_City      9    6   -7      49.07     9.65   -18.55     0.03     0.09     1.21     0.30P   41.90R   14.25  
Doncaster         9    5   -9      41.72     9.19   -30.17     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P   72.63R   42.78  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 September 2011, MK_Dons vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        10   24  +12      84.20    10.02    28.31    19.48    38.09    82.55    49.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          9   22   +8      87.33    10.87    31.53    31.64    50.62    87.08    60.91P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       10   20   +9      84.06    10.20    31.15    19.56    38.28    82.32    52.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool       9   19   +9      70.87    10.10    10.38     1.88     5.70    34.79    11.09P    0.93R    0.05  
MK_Dons         10   19   +8      76.47     9.94    20.13     5.31    13.81    57.43    24.79P    0.18R    0.01  
Notts_County    10   19   +7      69.15     9.76     8.07     1.06     3.45    28.16     8.25P    1.22R    0.07  
Brentford       10   19   +6      69.94     9.77     8.24     1.29     4.01    30.87     9.43P    0.98R    0.05  
Sheff_Wed       10   19   +3      73.66    10.05    10.63     3.27     8.96    44.89    16.91P    0.47R    0.02  
Huddersfield    10   18   +9      82.57     9.88    32.24    15.25    32.06    79.55    47.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle        10   16   -3      62.39     9.79    -8.23     0.25     0.85    10.46     2.71P    6.29R    0.49  
Tranmere        10   14   +1      62.13     9.60    -0.66     0.18     0.70     9.88     2.45P    5.82R    0.45  
Oldham          10   14   -3      59.95     9.59    -8.28     0.09     0.40     6.58     1.50P    9.49R    0.88  
Stevenage       10   13   +4      55.78     9.96    -6.25     0.06     0.22     3.50     0.78P   19.06R    2.84  
Colchester      10   13   +0      65.51     9.93     4.50     0.38     1.51    18.05     5.14P    3.27R    0.22  
Chesterfield    10   11   -3      52.79    10.13   -15.91     0.02     0.08     2.13     0.45P   29.38R    5.63  
Scunthorpe      10    9   -2      61.04    10.54     1.60     0.21     0.86    10.64     3.37P    9.06R    1.06  
Walsall         10    9   -2      53.83     9.69    -9.40     0.01     0.06     2.06     0.43P   24.08R    4.03  
Bournemouth     10    9   -8      56.77     9.79   -11.15     0.04     0.20     3.76     0.95P   16.60R    2.21  
Yeovil          10    8   -4      53.22     9.61   -10.50     0.01     0.03     1.63     0.35P   25.94R    4.37  
Wycombe         10    8   -7      47.40     9.83   -22.64     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.09P   49.89R   14.28  
Rochdale        10    8   -8      54.92     9.81   -12.65     0.02     0.09     2.55     0.61P   21.57R    3.56  
Bury            10    8  -10      46.08     9.73   -28.00     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   55.82R   18.16  
Exeter          10    5  -12      45.12     9.34   -26.35     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   59.33R   19.91  
Leyton_Orient   10    3  -14      44.74     9.68   -26.78     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   60.53R   21.72  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 September 2011, Aldershot vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Morecambe            10   20  +13      70.67     9.97    14.66     4.87    17.63    46.24    23.97P    0.24R    0.04  
Shrewsbury           10   20   +6      79.75     9.75    21.46    19.56    47.92    79.13    56.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             10   19   +4      75.86     9.88    15.29    10.53    32.05    65.87    40.80P    0.06R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         10   19   +2      66.32    10.48    -1.88     2.23     9.18    29.27    12.99P    1.24R    0.35  
Rotherham            10   18   +5      77.15    10.08    20.13    13.81    38.28    70.50    46.70P    0.03R    0.00  
Gillingham           10   17   +7      74.84     9.91    19.77     9.34    29.50    63.12    38.72P    0.08R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   17   +1      55.57    10.02   -17.54     0.22     1.21     6.09     1.98P    9.73R    3.63  
Oxford_Utd           10   16   +3      64.46     9.70     1.95     1.09     5.51    22.66     9.04P    1.30R    0.36  
Burton_Albion        10   16   +2      64.83     9.86     0.70     1.17     6.02    24.04     9.29P    1.42R    0.37  
Swindon              10   15   +7      80.27    10.14    31.43    23.63    52.03    80.64    62.20P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale            10   15   +5      68.06     9.90    10.41     2.61    11.56    36.09    17.45P    0.52R    0.13  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   -1      67.61    10.49     3.76     2.88    11.66    34.62    17.54P    0.96R    0.23  
Torquay              10   14   +1      68.57     9.96     8.70     3.03    12.32    37.62    18.86P    0.53R    0.14  
Cheltenham           10   14   +0      56.57     9.65   -11.01     0.13     1.04     6.58     2.04P    7.42R    2.54  
Aldershot            10   14   +0      61.02     9.54    -3.01     0.50     2.73    13.24     5.02P    2.58R    0.75  
Crewe                10   13   -1      68.54    10.13     8.26     2.94    12.36    37.89    18.95P    0.62R    0.16  
Northampton          10   12   -1      60.86     9.80    -2.08     0.45     2.89    13.63     5.32P    3.31R    1.03  
Macclesfield         10   11   +0      52.93     9.47   -11.54     0.07     0.38     3.05     0.85P   13.46R    5.14  
Accrington_Stanley   10   11   -4      59.78     9.78    -4.94     0.36     2.17    11.31     4.32P    4.03R    1.29  
Dag_&_Red            10   10   -5      60.41    10.30    -3.26     0.52     3.05    14.05     6.04P    4.21R    1.41  
Barnet               10    9   -9      47.65     9.38   -26.49     0.01     0.05     0.80     0.18P   31.00R   14.60  
Bradford             10    6   -5      45.30     9.35   -20.86     0.00     0.04     0.44     0.12P   39.30R   20.50  
Hereford             10    6  -16      41.10     9.01   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   60.31R   39.63  
Plymouth             10    4  -14      52.08    10.19   -15.91     0.06     0.40     2.99     1.11P   17.63R    7.66  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 September 2011, AFC_Telford vs Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Gateshead          12   26   +9      74.08     9.39    11.04     4.50    35.76     9.70P    0.10R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     12   25  +13      74.46    10.19    17.48     6.10    39.60    13.01P    0.14R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town     12   24   +7      80.20     9.26    21.60    13.26    62.73    25.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            12   23   +8      79.71     9.19    23.33    12.30    61.08    25.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield          12   22   +8      76.03     9.58    19.62     6.86    45.51    15.10P    0.07R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      12   22   +6      73.06     9.19    12.93     3.17    32.08     9.35P    0.09R    0.01  
Kidderminster      12   21   +5      75.66     9.51    17.34     6.19    43.68    14.87P    0.05R    0.00  
York               12   20  +10      75.27     9.33    23.01     5.60    42.75    15.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Luton              12   20   +7      87.07     8.82    38.82    39.66    86.98    58.81P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           12   18   +0      57.87     9.04   -10.39     0.05     2.09     0.33P    5.87R    0.59  
Southport          12   18   -5      55.37     9.13   -20.42     0.02     1.23     0.16P   11.22R    1.16  
Barrow             12   17   +3      59.13     9.16    -4.11     0.08     3.01     0.55P    4.62R    0.39  
AFC_Telford        12   16   -1      55.84     9.90   -11.50     0.08     2.00     0.40P   11.18R    1.43  
Forest_Green       12   15   +5      57.96     9.23    -0.71     0.06     2.51     0.49P    5.86R    0.56  
Stockport          12   14   +0      67.93     9.66    11.23     1.24    17.63     5.47P    0.66R    0.06  
Grimsby            12   14   -7      63.82     9.46    -2.09     0.38     7.77     1.96P    1.94R    0.19  
Darlington         12   13   -6      64.46     9.21     1.37     0.32     8.47     2.32P    1.33R    0.10  
Hayes_&_Yeading    12   12   -6      48.37     9.17   -24.23     0.00     0.22     0.04P   32.16R    6.48  
Ebbsfleet_United   12   11   -3      48.16     9.80   -18.48     0.01     0.32     0.05P   33.41R    7.45  
Kettering          12   11  -10      52.18     9.20   -18.86     0.02     0.48     0.10P   18.42R    3.01  
Lincoln_City       12    9   -7      59.05     9.66    -1.55     0.10     3.39     0.98P    5.64R    0.76  
Alfreton_Town      12    9  -14      37.44     8.92   -44.13     0.00     0.01     0.00    78.46R   42.05  
Newport_County     12    8   -7      53.17     9.31    -9.45     0.01     0.69     0.15P   15.04R    2.37  
Bath_City          12    3  -15      38.55     8.76   -31.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.66R   33.39