Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 28 September 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 September 2011, Norwich vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          6   16  +17      89.63     7.49    72.26    75.28    93.33    98.48    99.60    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         6   16  +14      76.71     8.57    41.81    10.34    41.28    73.59    87.48    97.24     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          6   13   +5      78.69     8.33    40.31    12.98    51.99    80.20    91.01    98.22     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        6   12   +4      56.65     8.76     3.99     0.06     0.81     3.62    11.04    34.98     0.78R    0.13  
Liverpool        6   10   +0      63.73     8.73    14.78     0.46     4.22    14.05    33.22    67.89     0.09R    0.00  
Tottenham        5    9   +0      62.72     9.13    13.07     0.44     3.68    12.54    29.94    62.79     0.14R    0.01  
Stoke            6    9   -2      49.27     8.41    -8.03     0.00     0.05     0.47     2.04    10.56     4.66R    0.76  
Aston_Villa      6    8   +2      50.59     8.71    -1.37     0.01     0.15     0.88     3.43    14.80     3.65R    0.57  
Norwich          6    8   -1      38.93     8.74   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.22     1.56    34.63R   12.30  
QPR              6    8   -2      39.87     8.40   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.19     1.41    29.38R    9.08  
Everton          5    7   +0      55.20     9.04     3.88     0.06     0.64     2.89     9.15    30.10     1.36R    0.20  
Wolverhampton    6    7   -3      39.93     8.32   -22.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     1.25    29.20R    9.29  
Arsenal          6    7   -5      62.70     8.95    14.38     0.36     3.80    12.79    30.22    63.40     0.13R    0.01  
Sunderland       6    5   +1      44.35     8.56    -7.57     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.71     4.33    13.57R    3.14  
Wigan            6    5   -4      35.61     8.04   -27.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.29    48.63R   20.15  
Swansea          6    5   -5      37.04     8.35   -22.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.68    41.77R   15.79  
Fulham           6    4   -3      45.71     8.41    -6.69     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.81     5.29     9.95R    2.12  
Blackburn        6    4   -5      39.80     8.51   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.33    29.97R    9.99  
West_Brom        6    4   -5      40.74     8.69   -19.24     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.30     2.00    26.26R    8.24  
Bolton           6    3   -8      40.92     8.69   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.23     1.91    25.84R    8.22  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 September 2011, Cardiff vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton       9   19   +9      78.77    10.82    22.75    20.95    36.84    72.77    45.98P    0.20R    0.02  
Middlesbrough     9   19   +8      74.82    10.03    15.70    10.35    21.88    59.92    31.03P    0.28R    0.02  
Derby             9   19   +7      66.71     9.87     2.61     2.29     6.04    28.14    10.15P    2.22R    0.27  
West_Ham          9   17   +8      81.34    10.50    28.32    29.43    46.90    80.89    57.89P    0.09R    0.01  
Brighton          9   17   +4      64.35    10.37    -1.12     1.68     4.42    21.92     7.78P    4.74R    0.71  
Cardiff           9   16   +4      75.70    10.08    17.27    11.61    24.63    63.32    35.43P    0.27R    0.02  
Hull              9   14   -1      63.51     9.58    -1.72     0.85     2.74    17.79     6.01P    4.07R    0.54  
Peterborough      9   13   +4      60.29    11.01    -3.36     1.01     2.64    14.59     4.98P   11.55R    2.80  
Crystal_Palace    9   13   +2      56.94     9.47    -7.22     0.14     0.57     5.92     1.47P   14.13R    2.84  
Blackpool         9   13   +2      71.20    10.81    13.03     6.95    15.11    46.54    23.98P    1.40R    0.21  
Leicester         9   13   +0      66.02    10.04     3.36     1.85     5.08    26.64    10.20P    2.95R    0.41  
Ipswich           9   13   -4      58.78     9.93   -11.56     0.35     1.13     9.02     2.52P   11.98R    2.36  
Leeds_United      8   11   +1      65.80    10.80     4.62     2.38     6.25    27.94    11.19P    4.25R    0.75  
Reading           9   11   +0      67.50    10.11     8.51     2.94     7.46    32.66    14.48P    2.08R    0.30  
Watford           9   10   -3      58.67    10.18    -6.75     0.41     1.31     9.52     2.98P   12.26R    2.78  
Burnley           8    9   +0      61.94    10.23     0.98     0.85     2.64    15.99     5.83P    7.02R    1.27  
Portsmouth        9    9   -2      58.66     9.76    -3.19     0.29     0.94     8.64     2.64P   11.27R    2.35  
Barnsley          9    9   -2      52.94     9.57   -11.45     0.04     0.21     2.66     0.69P   26.47R    7.18  
Birmingham        7    8   -2      69.13    11.13     9.48     5.13    11.62    39.35    19.87P    2.35R    0.37  
Nott'm_Forest     9    8   -9      58.31     9.95    -9.46     0.34     1.03     8.43     2.85P   12.85R    2.66  
Coventry          9    7   -4      50.55     9.44   -13.65     0.02     0.09     1.47     0.35P   35.26R   10.67  
Millwall          9    7   -6      55.33     9.62    -8.72     0.12     0.39     4.38     1.33P   18.83R    4.61  
Bristol_City      9    6   -7      49.35     9.74   -18.10     0.02     0.10     1.36     0.33P   40.82R   13.61  
Doncaster         9    5   -9      41.60     9.20   -30.33     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.03P   72.68R   43.21  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 September 2011, MK_Dons vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        10   24  +12      84.04     9.96    28.11    18.71    37.14    82.21    48.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          9   22   +8      87.26    10.84    31.35    31.42    50.61    86.96    60.75P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       10   20   +9      84.25    10.14    31.54    20.13    38.88    82.86    52.97P    0.03R    0.00  
Hartlepool       9   19   +9      70.61    10.11     9.91     1.84     5.37    34.02    10.67P    0.95R    0.04  
MK_Dons         10   19   +8      76.31     9.94    19.82     5.10    13.21    56.72    24.12P    0.19R    0.00  
Notts_County    10   19   +7      69.22     9.70     8.29     1.07     3.51    28.10     8.19P    1.17R    0.05  
Brentford       10   19   +6      70.15     9.87     8.56     1.37     4.40    31.84    10.20P    1.02R    0.07  
Sheff_Wed       10   19   +3      73.98    10.13    11.14     3.48     9.38    46.52    17.65P    0.49R    0.03  
Huddersfield    10   18   +9      82.62     9.92    32.37    15.59    32.62    79.34    48.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Carlisle        10   16   -3      62.30     9.77    -8.37     0.26     0.79    10.17     2.56P    6.34R    0.52  
Tranmere        10   14   +1      61.78     9.59    -1.17     0.14     0.53     9.30     2.13P    6.20R    0.48  
Oldham          10   14   -3      59.95     9.65    -8.28     0.09     0.37     6.52     1.53P    9.52R    0.95  
Stevenage       10   13   +4      55.64     9.98    -6.51     0.04     0.17     3.49     0.77P   19.42R    2.99  
Colchester      10   13   +0      65.49     9.98     4.51     0.43     1.60    17.91     5.25P    3.27R    0.23  
Chesterfield    10   11   -3      52.34    10.25   -16.74     0.02     0.08     1.97     0.44P   31.25R    6.25  
Scunthorpe      10    9   -2      61.31    10.45     2.01     0.22     0.88    10.78     3.26P    8.49R    1.03  
Walsall         10    9   -2      54.06     9.72    -9.11     0.01     0.08     2.08     0.50P   23.27R    3.81  
Bournemouth     10    9   -8      56.70     9.81   -11.16     0.04     0.20     3.58     0.89P   16.80R    2.29  
Yeovil          10    8   -4      53.39     9.67   -10.24     0.01     0.05     1.77     0.36P   25.55R    4.41  
Wycombe         10    8   -7      47.58     9.91   -22.36     0.01     0.02     0.58     0.13P   48.97R   14.20  
Rochdale        10    8   -8      55.01     9.80   -12.45     0.03     0.10     2.57     0.57P   21.40R    3.44  
Bury            10    8  -10      45.77     9.73   -28.55     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   57.14R   18.98  
Exeter          10    5  -12      45.23     9.37   -26.20     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   58.89R   19.41  
Leyton_Orient   10    3  -14      44.94     9.68   -26.47     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P   59.58R   20.80  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 September 2011, Aldershot vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Morecambe            10   20  +13      70.56    10.00    14.44     4.74    17.35    46.20    23.41P    0.25R    0.06  
Shrewsbury           10   20   +6      80.19     9.71    22.13    20.62    49.94    80.53    58.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             10   19   +4      75.85     9.89    15.21    10.56    32.13    65.63    40.79P    0.06R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         10   19   +2      66.30    10.48    -1.94     2.18     9.16    29.43    12.89P    1.30R    0.37  
Rotherham            10   18   +5      76.94    10.09    19.76    13.37    37.06    69.93    45.55P    0.07R    0.01  
Gillingham           10   17   +7      75.15     9.91    20.27    10.06    30.39    64.32    40.10P    0.07R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   17   +1      55.36    10.01   -17.94     0.18     1.02     5.75     1.83P   10.45R    3.75  
Oxford_Utd           10   16   +3      64.28     9.64     1.79     0.91     5.18    22.21     8.80P    1.29R    0.32  
Burton_Albion        10   16   +2      64.86     9.87     0.75     1.09     6.10    24.06     9.57P    1.37R    0.39  
Swindon              10   15   +7      80.04    10.20    31.05    22.60    50.93    79.70    60.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale            10   15   +5      67.87     9.91    10.13     2.52    11.22    35.42    17.16P    0.58R    0.12  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   -1      67.99    10.40     4.32     3.14    12.21    35.45    18.10P    0.76R    0.18  
Torquay              10   14   +1      68.71     9.94     8.90     2.96    12.65    38.24    19.12P    0.58R    0.16  
Cheltenham           10   14   +0      56.67     9.56   -10.84     0.13     0.93     6.44     1.88P    7.17R    2.29  
Aldershot            10   14   +0      60.64     9.50    -3.54     0.37     2.39    12.71     4.64P    2.82R    0.81  
Crewe                10   13   -1      68.64    10.21     8.45     3.07    12.74    38.13    19.24P    0.62R    0.16  
Northampton          10   12   -1      60.83     9.78    -2.13     0.54     2.87    13.86     5.35P    3.20R    1.05  
Macclesfield         10   11   +0      52.93     9.51   -11.50     0.05     0.44     3.10     0.97P   13.65R    5.17  
Accrington_Stanley   10   11   -4      59.63     9.79    -5.12     0.33     2.01    10.99     4.07P    4.17R    1.39  
Dag_&_Red            10   10   -5      60.11    10.20    -3.65     0.50     2.76    13.12     5.58P    4.18R    1.37  
Barnet               10    9   -9      47.76     9.49   -26.33     0.01     0.07     0.86     0.18P   30.89R   14.82  
Bradford             10    6   -5      45.49     9.42   -20.64     0.00     0.03     0.49     0.09P   38.77R   20.05  
Hereford             10    6  -16      40.95     8.95   -38.22     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P   61.10R   40.29  
Plymouth             10    4  -14      52.42    10.17   -15.36     0.05     0.42     3.29     1.19P   16.64R    7.24  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 September 2011, AFC_Telford vs Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Gateshead          12   26   +9      74.09     9.44    11.03     4.49    35.95     9.58P    0.09R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     12   25  +13      74.58    10.25    17.56     6.47    40.18    13.30P    0.12R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     12   24   +7      80.18     9.42    21.60    13.75    62.25    25.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham            12   23   +8      79.48     9.24    22.96    11.61    59.86    24.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield          12   22   +8      76.32     9.57    20.06     7.26    46.70    15.66P    0.06R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      12   22   +6      72.77     9.16    12.48     2.93    31.17     8.91P    0.07R    0.00  
Kidderminster      12   21   +5      75.57     9.52    17.22     6.16    43.27    15.03P    0.05R    0.00  
York               12   20  +10      75.15     9.25    22.86     5.35    42.42    14.98P    0.04R    0.00  
Luton              12   20   +7      87.08     8.83    38.82    39.42    86.95    58.31P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           12   18   +0      57.68     9.04   -10.68     0.06     2.08     0.37P    6.10R    0.57  
Southport          12   18   -5      55.47     9.12   -20.22     0.05     1.19     0.20P   10.53R    1.20  
Barrow             12   17   +3      59.30     9.20    -3.83     0.07     3.18     0.56P    4.46R    0.34  
AFC_Telford        12   16   -1      55.79     9.94   -11.64     0.07     2.11     0.36P   11.38R    1.52  
Forest_Green       12   15   +5      58.02     9.38    -0.71     0.09     2.96     0.63P    6.04R    0.60  
Stockport          12   14   +0      68.13     9.80    11.55     1.38    18.52     6.18P    0.72R    0.06  
Grimsby            12   14   -7      64.05     9.34    -1.79     0.34     7.74     1.95P    1.77R    0.20  
Darlington         12   13   -6      64.55     9.18     1.46     0.36     8.56     2.59P    1.34R    0.08  
Hayes_&_Yeading    12   12   -6      48.31     9.19   -24.31     0.00     0.17     0.02P   32.28R    6.44  
Ebbsfleet_United   12   11   -3      48.19     9.74   -18.35     0.01     0.33     0.07P   33.10R    7.36  
Kettering          12   11  -10      52.25     9.19   -18.64     0.01     0.54     0.10P   18.31R    2.85  
Lincoln_City       12    9   -7      59.10     9.58    -1.47     0.10     3.18     0.86P    5.56R    0.70  
Alfreton_Town      12    9  -14      37.58     8.89   -43.97     0.00     0.01     0.00    77.80R   41.12  
Newport_County     12    8   -7      53.02     9.28    -9.72     0.01     0.68     0.14P   15.11R    2.64  
Bath_City          12    3  -15      38.25     8.63   -32.26     0.00     0.01     0.00P   75.05R   34.31