Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 27 September 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 September 2011, Norwich vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          6   16  +17      89.63     7.48    72.22    75.51    93.22    98.46    99.58    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         6   16  +14      76.61     8.60    41.62    10.02    40.94    73.31    87.33    97.04     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          6   13   +5      78.68     8.32    40.27    12.99    52.39    80.09    90.97    98.22     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        6   12   +4      56.49     8.81     3.67     0.09     0.82     3.64    10.80    34.32     0.90R    0.12  
Liverpool        6   10   +0      63.82     8.71    14.90     0.52     4.32    14.56    33.80    68.58     0.07R    0.01  
Tottenham        5    9   +0      62.46     9.19    12.67     0.39     3.45    12.08    29.39    61.79     0.19R    0.03  
Stoke            6    9   -2      49.21     8.42    -8.07     0.00     0.07     0.47     2.04    10.55     4.74R    0.79  
Aston_Villa      6    8   +2      50.57     8.77    -1.40     0.01     0.15     0.91     3.47    14.73     3.89R    0.66  
Norwich          6    8   -1      38.67     8.65   -26.31     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.20     1.36    35.85R   12.67  
QPR              6    8   -2      39.95     8.45   -21.40     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17     1.46    29.21R    9.36  
Everton          5    7   +0      55.36     9.07     4.18     0.05     0.67     3.05     9.60    31.01     1.32R    0.18  
Wolverhampton    6    7   -3      39.71     8.24   -23.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13     1.18    29.97R    9.54  
Arsenal          6    7   -5      62.73     8.99    14.36     0.42     3.91    12.94    30.33    63.78     0.16R    0.01  
Sunderland       6    5   +1      44.31     8.61    -7.62     0.00     0.03     0.15     0.67     4.32    14.00R    3.33  
Wigan            6    5   -4      35.96     8.15   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.40    47.28R   19.28  
Swansea          6    5   -5      37.17     8.40   -22.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.72    41.23R   15.79  
Fulham           6    4   -3      45.61     8.38    -6.85     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.76     5.11    10.13R    2.13  
Blackburn        6    4   -5      39.97     8.49   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.36    28.86R    9.73  
West_Brom        6    4   -5      40.88     8.73   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.27     2.11    26.12R    8.20  
Bolton           6    3   -8      40.96     8.75   -20.18     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.24     1.95    26.07R    8.16  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 September 2011, Brighton vs Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton       8   19  +10      80.44    10.99    24.15    25.56    42.16    76.62    50.81P    0.11R    0.01  
Derby             9   19   +7      66.66     9.91     2.50     2.20     5.83    28.07     9.95P    2.34R    0.23  
Middlesbrough     8   18   +8      75.90    10.35    16.67    12.24    25.09    63.57    34.39P    0.27R    0.03  
West_Ham          9   17   +8      81.08    10.52    28.04    26.73    44.84    79.86    56.27P    0.09R    0.01  
Brighton          9   17   +4      64.27    10.30    -1.30     1.42     4.07    21.45     7.35P    4.65R    0.72  
Hull              9   14   -1      63.52     9.42    -1.77     0.84     2.58    17.23     5.88P    3.70R    0.48  
Peterborough      9   13   +4      60.42    11.05    -3.21     1.06     2.70    14.90     4.96P   11.10R    2.70  
Cardiff           8   13   +3      73.76    10.31    15.77     8.53    18.93    55.73    29.38P    0.51R    0.05  
Crystal_Palace    9   13   +2      56.87     9.58    -7.36     0.20     0.61     6.06     1.59P   14.63R    2.86  
Blackpool         9   13   +2      71.28    10.88    13.15     6.80    15.18    46.78    24.26P    1.36R    0.21  
Ipswich           9   13   -4      58.89     9.86   -11.44     0.30     1.03     8.95     2.41P   11.61R    2.32  
Leicester         8   12   +0      66.06    10.30     2.79     1.99     5.49    27.32    10.45P    3.28R    0.48  
Leeds_United      8   11   +1      66.09    10.74     4.99     2.33     6.24    28.33    11.27P    3.72R    0.67  
Reading           9   11   +0      67.65    10.19     8.74     2.98     7.62    32.90    14.81P    2.03R    0.28  
Watford           9   10   -3      58.65    10.19    -6.86     0.37     1.17     9.58     2.91P   12.63R    2.73  
Burnley           8    9   +0      61.86    10.24     0.87     0.80     2.41    16.14     5.59P    7.14R    1.35  
Portsmouth        9    9   -2      58.66     9.76    -3.28     0.29     0.98     8.62     2.72P   11.26R    2.16  
Barnsley          9    9   -2      52.86     9.50   -11.62     0.04     0.15     2.57     0.58P   26.65R    7.26  
Birmingham        7    8   -2      69.32    11.16     9.76     4.97    11.55    39.92    19.90P    2.39R    0.40  
Nott'm_Forest     9    8   -9      58.24     9.94    -9.56     0.25     0.89     8.27     2.68P   12.84R    2.76  
Coventry          9    7   -4      50.34     9.40   -13.90     0.01     0.08     1.38     0.34P   35.71R   10.98  
Millwall          9    7   -6      55.25     9.64    -8.87     0.07     0.30     4.28     1.12P   19.14R    4.77  
Bristol_City      9    6   -7      49.51     9.72   -17.95     0.03     0.07     1.32     0.36P   40.27R   13.55  
Doncaster         9    5   -9      41.65     9.19   -30.33     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   72.57R   42.99  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 September 2011, MK_Dons vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        10   24  +12      84.31     9.96    28.48    19.29    37.63    83.05    49.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          9   22   +8      87.31    10.96    31.52    31.47    50.58    86.76    60.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       10   20   +9      83.98    10.21    31.10    19.27    37.55    81.80    51.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Hartlepool       9   19   +9      70.59    10.19     9.89     2.00     5.53    33.79    10.71P    1.01R    0.06  
MK_Dons         10   19   +8      76.66    10.01    20.32     5.49    14.05    58.09    25.23P    0.18R    0.00  
Notts_County    10   19   +7      69.22     9.76     8.23     1.00     3.39    28.49     8.12P    1.25R    0.05  
Brentford       10   19   +6      70.04     9.76     8.41     1.26     4.08    30.98     9.63P    0.92R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed       10   19   +3      73.76    10.22    10.74     3.26     9.17    45.31    17.08P    0.52R    0.02  
Huddersfield    10   18   +9      82.84     9.87    32.72    15.71    32.85    80.17    48.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle        10   16   -3      62.32     9.73    -8.30     0.21     0.85    10.12     2.53P    6.11R    0.49  
Tranmere        10   14   +1      61.80     9.61    -1.07     0.14     0.65     9.09     2.25P    6.11R    0.53  
Oldham          10   14   -3      59.76     9.57    -8.54     0.08     0.36     6.42     1.39P    9.45R    0.87  
Stevenage       10   13   +4      55.86     9.94    -6.15     0.06     0.21     3.64     0.83P   18.53R    2.68  
Colchester      10   13   +0      65.58     9.96     4.62     0.41     1.68    17.87     5.30P    3.27R    0.23  
Chesterfield    10   11   -3      52.66    10.18   -16.20     0.01     0.08     2.11     0.49P   29.79R    5.65  
Scunthorpe      10    9   -2      61.31    10.47     1.99     0.22     0.89    10.82     3.47P    8.71R    1.06  
Walsall         10    9   -2      53.81     9.76    -9.52     0.01     0.06     2.11     0.44P   24.11R    4.00  
Bournemouth     10    9   -8      56.87     9.93   -10.94     0.07     0.20     3.99     1.05P   16.51R    2.31  
Yeovil          10    8   -4      53.15     9.69   -10.67     0.01     0.05     1.69     0.35P   26.28R    4.71  
Wycombe         10    8   -7      47.50     9.92   -22.51     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.08P   49.26R   14.32  
Rochdale        10    8   -8      54.86     9.88   -12.66     0.02     0.12     2.56     0.58P   22.03R    3.53  
Bury            10    8  -10      45.86     9.67   -28.41     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.03P   56.60R   18.29  
Exeter          10    5  -12      45.16     9.43   -26.31     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   59.10R   20.03  
Leyton_Orient   10    3  -14      44.74     9.70   -26.73     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P   60.19R   21.13  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 September 2011, Aldershot vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Morecambe            10   20  +13      70.40     9.98    14.19     4.63    16.86    45.28    22.82P    0.26R    0.05  
Shrewsbury           10   20   +6      80.06     9.78    21.94    20.59    49.05    79.98    57.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             10   19   +4      76.21     9.84    15.79    11.16    33.41    67.13    42.27P    0.06R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         10   19   +2      66.15    10.45    -2.11     2.14     8.88    28.83    12.66P    1.37R    0.39  
Rotherham            10   18   +5      76.85    10.11    19.67    13.41    36.83    69.35    45.15P    0.05R    0.01  
Gillingham           10   17   +7      74.88     9.84    19.83     9.15    29.62    62.97    39.05P    0.08R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   17   +1      55.34    10.11   -17.93     0.17     1.17     6.12     2.01P   10.24R    3.71  
Oxford_Utd           10   16   +3      64.33     9.71     1.81     1.05     5.42    22.28     8.61P    1.20R    0.34  
Burton_Albion        10   16   +2      65.08     9.99     1.09     1.34     6.56    24.79    10.05P    1.42R    0.40  
Swindon              10   15   +7      80.20    10.07    31.32    22.44    51.41    80.72    61.54P    0.03R    0.01  
Port_Vale            10   15   +5      68.21     9.94    10.68     2.93    11.83    36.65    17.97P    0.53R    0.11  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   -1      67.84    10.43     4.05     3.13    11.85    34.88    17.74P    0.85R    0.21  
Torquay              10   14   +1      68.69     9.95     8.88     2.91    12.56    38.06    19.12P    0.50R    0.12  
Cheltenham           10   14   +0      56.48     9.62   -11.24     0.15     1.04     6.24     1.94P    7.46R    2.52  
Aldershot            10   14   +0      60.73     9.50    -3.37     0.41     2.40    12.61     4.63P    2.79R    0.76  
Crewe                10   13   -1      68.35    10.14     7.95     2.84    11.95    37.11    18.33P    0.69R    0.20  
Northampton          10   12   -1      60.96     9.85    -1.89     0.51     3.00    14.21     5.66P    3.13R    1.00  
Macclesfield         10   11   +0      52.94     9.54   -11.50     0.07     0.45     3.15     0.91P   13.64R    5.17  
Accrington_Stanley   10   11   -4      59.90     9.72    -4.77     0.37     2.23    11.46     4.34P    3.80R    1.26  
Dag_&_Red            10   10   -5      60.29    10.17    -3.39     0.57     2.93    13.63     5.78P    3.92R    1.26  
Barnet               10    9   -9      47.46     9.43   -26.83     0.00     0.05     0.72     0.14P   31.82R   15.23  
Bradford             10    6   -5      45.30     9.36   -20.85     0.00     0.04     0.43     0.11P   39.15R   20.44  
Hereford             10    6  -16      41.12     9.03   -37.93     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P   60.15R   39.46  
Plymouth             10    4  -14      52.38    10.17   -15.39     0.04     0.44     3.29     1.18P   16.83R    7.33  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 September 2011, AFC_Telford vs Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Gateshead          12   26   +9      74.06     9.46    11.01     4.53    35.67     9.82P    0.09R    0.01  
Braintree_Town     12   25  +13      74.47    10.21    17.36     6.30    39.33    12.93P    0.13R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town     12   24   +7      80.35     9.32    21.87    13.93    62.85    26.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham            12   23   +8      79.47     9.22    23.00    11.69    60.10    24.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield          12   22   +8      76.35     9.52    20.15     6.89    46.80    15.74P    0.05R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      12   22   +6      72.97     9.22    12.77     3.23    31.54     9.31P    0.08R    0.00  
Kidderminster      12   21   +5      75.63     9.48    17.33     6.15    43.32    14.74P    0.05R    0.00  
York               12   20  +10      75.71     9.29    23.66     6.07    44.48    16.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Luton              12   20   +7      87.00     8.88    38.67    38.84    86.65    57.57P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           12   18   +0      57.74     9.04   -10.60     0.04     1.91     0.31P    6.36R    0.65  
Southport          12   18   -5      55.12     9.09   -20.82     0.03     1.04     0.15P   11.36R    1.31  
Barrow             12   17   +3      59.09     9.17    -4.20     0.08     2.93     0.52P    4.58R    0.36  
AFC_Telford        12   16   -1      55.91     9.84   -11.37     0.05     2.00     0.43P   10.79R    1.39  
Forest_Green       12   15   +5      57.99     9.32    -0.73     0.07     2.69     0.52P    5.83R    0.59  
Stockport          12   14   +0      68.09     9.80    11.56     1.29    18.22     5.70P    0.77R    0.06  
Grimsby            12   14   -7      63.96     9.39    -1.94     0.38     7.75     1.97P    1.78R    0.15  
Darlington         12   13   -6      64.23     9.13     1.05     0.29     7.70     2.05P    1.42R    0.06  
Hayes_&_Yeading    12   12   -6      48.43     9.21   -24.08     0.01     0.17     0.04P   32.06R    6.35  
Ebbsfleet_United   12   11   -3      48.26     9.86   -18.31     0.01     0.36     0.07P   32.85R    7.48  
Kettering          12   11  -10      52.26     9.16   -18.75     0.00     0.52     0.08P   18.16R    2.84  
Lincoln_City       12    9   -7      58.75     9.70    -2.04     0.09     3.24     0.83P    6.15R    0.78  
Alfreton_Town      12    9  -14      37.57     8.95   -44.02     0.00     0.01     0.00P   77.78R   41.11  
Newport_County     12    8   -7      53.20     9.31    -9.37     0.02     0.71     0.15P   14.97R    2.47  
Bath_City          12    3  -15      38.27     8.72   -32.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.68R   34.37