Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 May 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 May 2011, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         35   73  +38      79.48     1.95    42.45    85.58    99.30   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         35   70  +38      75.21     2.08    39.86    14.21    82.87    99.10   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         35   67  +32      72.62     2.17    34.38     0.21    17.04    90.07   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   62  +22      68.68     2.59    23.77     0.00     0.79    10.84    97.22   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       35   55  +15      59.87     2.24    16.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43    99.57     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   55   +7      61.26     2.35     8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.36    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Everton         35   48   +5      51.99     2.27     4.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          35   46   +0      50.42     2.28     0.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          35   45   +7      48.76     2.19     6.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           35   43   +0      46.62     2.06    -0.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       35   43  -14      46.39     2.23   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       35   41   -2      45.29     2.02    -2.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     35   41  -13      44.83     2.03   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Sunderland      35   41  -13      44.90     2.19   -13.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Birmingham      35   39  -17      41.83     2.02   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.01R    0.01  
Blackburn       35   38  -14      41.03     2.12   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.89R    0.21  
Blackpool       35   35  -22      37.02     1.75   -26.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.61R   30.42  
Wigan           35   35  -23      38.04     2.05   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.18R   19.42  
Wolverhampton   35   34  -23      37.97     2.23   -23.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.62R   15.39  
West_Ham        35   32  -23      36.49     2.28   -22.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.59R   34.56  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2011, Cardiff vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
QPR              45   88  +40      89.87     1.28    40.74   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          45   83  +25      84.94     1.27    25.85     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          45   79  +22      80.35     1.32    21.96     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.67P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          45   77  +23      78.96     1.24    23.82     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.90P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          45   74  +25      76.07     1.23    26.08     0.00     0.00   100.00    27.36P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    45   72  +16      73.55     1.30    16.27     0.00     0.00    99.82    22.03P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     45   69  +10      69.89     1.19     9.26     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   67  +14      68.44     1.30    14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          45   67   +4      68.41     1.32     4.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hull             45   65   +5      66.32     1.29     4.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        45   64   +3      65.77     1.30     3.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          45   61   +8      62.50     1.34     8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          45   60   -6      60.99     1.23    -6.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    45   59   -2      60.92     1.27    -1.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     45   58   -4      59.40     1.30    -3.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth       45   57   -7      58.67     1.31    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   54   -3      54.83     1.16    -3.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   53  -13      54.28     1.28   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            45   49  -12      49.72     1.11   -13.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   45   48  -22      49.16     1.25   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        45   48  -24      48.86     1.18   -24.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   42  -31      42.79     1.12   -31.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    5.44  
Scunthorpe       45   41  -44      42.08     1.25   -44.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   25.59  
Preston          45   39  -27      40.28     1.32   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   68.98  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2011, Plymouth vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Brighton         45   94  +45      95.66     1.30    45.41   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      45   89  +46      91.30     1.12    47.49     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     45   86  +29      87.97     1.25    29.86     0.00     0.00   100.00    34.59P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   76  +26      78.20     1.19    27.44     0.00     0.00   100.00    29.50P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          45   74   +6      75.34     1.29     5.97     0.00     0.00   100.00    17.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      45   71  +22      72.71     1.31    22.49     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    45   67   +6      68.26     1.29     5.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Exeter           45   67   -8      67.89     1.20    -8.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         45   65   +7      66.04     1.24     6.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford        45   60   -7      60.80     1.13    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         45   59   +0      60.73     1.30     0.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       45   59   -7      60.89     1.28    -6.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        45   58   +1      59.89     1.29     1.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton         45   58   -4      59.90     1.28    -3.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         45   56   -5      57.61     1.31    -4.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   56   -6      57.39     1.30    -5.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           45   56  -12      57.02     1.23   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       45   56  -18      56.87     1.18   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County     45   49  -14      50.07     1.23   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.58R    0.00  
Walsall          45   48  -17      48.52     0.97   -18.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.47R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red        45   47  -13      47.63     1.08   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.95R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   45   45  -33      45.87     1.18   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Plymouth         45   42  -20      43.47     1.31   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Swindon          45   38  -24      39.13     1.26   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Plymouth         -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 April 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Chesterfield         45   83  +32      84.64     1.32    32.40    90.03   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   80  +32      81.33     1.29    31.97     9.97   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   77  +17      78.58     1.31    17.31     0.00    63.51   100.00    74.21P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           45   76  +20      77.80     1.28    20.61     0.00    36.49   100.00    53.83P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   72  +18      73.45     1.33    18.11     0.00     0.00   100.00    20.15P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              45   69  +23      70.24     1.29    22.81     0.00     0.00    93.07    25.02P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   68  +17      69.38     1.29    17.03     0.00     0.00    73.03    17.86P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           45   68  +12      69.11     1.26    11.60     0.00     0.00    33.90     8.93P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            45   65   +6      66.53     1.31     6.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            45   63  +13      64.50     1.32    13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   63   +1      63.94     1.19     0.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crewe                45   62  +18      63.57     1.33    18.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southend             45   61   +8      62.15     1.26     7.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            45   58   -3      59.54     1.31    -2.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         45   54  -14      55.49     1.31   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford             45   52  -16      53.25     1.29   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford             45   52  -21      53.19     1.29   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   51  -18      52.39     1.32   -17.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           45   51  -21      52.42     1.33   -20.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        45   50  -14      51.31     1.32   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Northampton          45   49   -9      50.37     1.32    -9.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         45   47  -33      48.19     1.27   -33.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.55R    0.00  
Barnet               45   45  -20      46.20     1.27   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.45R    0.00  
Stockport            45   40  -48      41.34     1.32   -48.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 April 2011, AFC_Wimbledon vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Crawley_Town       46  105  +63     105.00     0.00    63.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      46   90  +36      90.00     0.00    36.00     0.00   100.00    24.00P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              46   84  +48      84.00     0.00    48.00     0.00   100.00    45.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            46   81  +17      81.00     0.00    17.00     0.00   100.00    13.91P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     46   78  +26      78.00     0.00    26.00     0.00   100.00    16.51P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      46   72  +14      72.00     0.00    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington         46   71  +19      71.00     0.00    19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
York               46   71   +5      71.00     0.00     5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County     46   69  +18      69.00     0.00    18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bath_City          46   63   -4      63.00     0.00    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            46   62  +10      62.00     0.00    10.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   46   62   +3      62.00     0.00     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          46   61   -2      61.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering          46   58  -11      58.00     0.00   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          46   57   -3      57.00     0.00    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    46   51  -24      51.00     0.00   -24.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      46   50   -8      50.00     0.00    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow             46   50  -15      50.00     0.00   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           46   49  -21      49.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       46   46  -19      46.00     0.00   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport          46   46  -21      46.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         46   44  -40      44.00     0.00   -40.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    46   39  -42      39.00     0.00   -42.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Histon             46   28  -49      28.00     0.00   -49.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Histon             -5
Kidderminster      -5