Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 5 May 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 May 2011, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         35   73  +38      79.48     1.93    42.45    85.53    99.29    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         35   70  +38      75.23     2.08    39.89    14.30    83.01    99.02   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         35   67  +32      72.63     2.18    34.40     0.17    16.91    90.31   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   62  +22      68.70     2.58    23.80     0.00     0.78    10.68    97.21   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       35   55  +15      59.86     2.25    16.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41    99.57     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   55   +7      61.27     2.34     8.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Everton         35   48   +5      51.97     2.25     4.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          35   46   +0      50.42     2.28     0.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          35   45   +7      48.78     2.20     6.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           35   43   +0      46.60     2.06    -0.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       35   43  -14      46.39     2.23   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       35   41   -2      45.28     2.01    -2.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     35   41  -13      44.81     2.04   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Sunderland      35   41  -13      44.92     2.19   -13.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Birmingham      35   39  -17      41.83     2.01   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.07R    0.00  
Blackburn       35   38  -14      41.04     2.12   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.80R    0.16  
Blackpool       35   35  -22      37.01     1.74   -26.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.56R   30.33  
Wigan           35   35  -23      38.05     2.07   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.29R   19.50  
Wolverhampton   35   34  -23      37.95     2.23   -23.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.85R   15.50  
West_Ham        35   32  -23      36.49     2.29   -22.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.34R   34.51  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2011, Cardiff vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
QPR              45   88  +40      89.85     1.28    40.71   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          45   83  +25      84.93     1.27    25.84     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          45   79  +22      80.36     1.32    21.97     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.23P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          45   77  +23      78.96     1.24    23.83     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.88P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          45   74  +25      76.08     1.23    26.09     0.00     0.00   100.00    27.77P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    45   72  +16      73.55     1.30    16.26     0.00     0.00    99.79    22.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     45   69  +10      69.91     1.19     9.29     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   67  +14      68.42     1.30    14.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          45   67   +4      68.40     1.33     4.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hull             45   65   +5      66.32     1.29     4.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        45   64   +3      65.78     1.30     3.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          45   61   +8      62.50     1.34     8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          45   60   -6      60.98     1.23    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    45   59   -2      60.92     1.28    -1.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     45   58   -4      59.40     1.30    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth       45   57   -7      58.67     1.31    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   54   -3      54.84     1.16    -3.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   53  -13      54.30     1.29   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            45   49  -12      49.72     1.11   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   45   48  -22      49.17     1.26   -22.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        45   48  -24      48.86     1.18   -24.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   42  -31      42.79     1.11   -31.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    5.69  
Scunthorpe       45   41  -44      42.08     1.26   -44.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   25.14  
Preston          45   39  -27      40.28     1.32   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   69.16  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2011, Plymouth vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Brighton         45   94  +45      95.68     1.30    45.44   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      45   89  +46      91.30     1.12    47.50     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     45   86  +29      87.98     1.24    29.87     0.00     0.00   100.00    34.17P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   76  +26      78.21     1.19    27.46     0.00     0.00   100.00    29.60P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          45   74   +6      75.32     1.29     5.94     0.00     0.00   100.00    17.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      45   71  +22      72.71     1.31    22.48     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    45   67   +6      68.25     1.29     5.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Exeter           45   67   -8      67.88     1.19    -8.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         45   65   +7      66.04     1.24     6.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford        45   60   -7      60.79     1.13    -7.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         45   59   +0      60.72     1.30     0.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       45   59   -7      60.89     1.28    -6.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        45   58   +1      59.91     1.28     1.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton         45   58   -4      59.90     1.28    -3.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         45   56   -5      57.61     1.31    -4.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   56   -6      57.41     1.30    -5.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           45   56  -12      57.02     1.23   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       45   56  -18      56.87     1.18   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County     45   49  -14      50.05     1.23   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.52R    0.00  
Walsall          45   48  -17      48.52     0.96   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.99R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red        45   47  -13      47.63     1.08   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.49R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   45   45  -33      45.87     1.18   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Plymouth         45   42  -20      43.49     1.32   -19.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Swindon          45   38  -24      39.12     1.26   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Plymouth         -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 April 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Chesterfield         45   83  +32      84.64     1.32    32.40    89.78   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   80  +32      81.34     1.29    31.98    10.22   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   77  +17      78.57     1.31    17.29     0.00    63.41   100.00    74.18P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           45   76  +20      77.79     1.28    20.59     0.00    36.59   100.00    53.99P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   72  +18      73.45     1.33    18.11     0.00     0.00   100.00    20.43P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              45   69  +23      70.25     1.29    22.81     0.00     0.00    92.87    24.84P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   68  +17      69.38     1.29    17.02     0.00     0.00    72.87    17.67P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           45   68  +12      69.11     1.27    11.60     0.00     0.00    34.26     8.89P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            45   65   +6      66.53     1.31     6.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            45   63  +13      64.50     1.32    13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   63   +1      63.95     1.20     0.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crewe                45   62  +18      63.56     1.33    18.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southend             45   61   +8      62.16     1.26     7.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            45   58   -3      59.55     1.31    -2.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         45   54  -14      55.49     1.31   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford             45   52  -16      53.24     1.29   -16.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford             45   52  -21      53.20     1.30   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   51  -18      52.37     1.32   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           45   51  -21      52.44     1.33   -20.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        45   50  -14      51.30     1.31   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Northampton          45   49   -9      50.38     1.32    -9.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         45   47  -33      48.19     1.27   -33.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.46R    0.00  
Barnet               45   45  -20      46.20     1.27   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.54R    0.00  
Stockport            45   40  -48      41.32     1.32   -48.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 April 2011, AFC_Wimbledon vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Crawley_Town       46  105  +63     105.00     0.00    63.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      46   90  +36      90.00     0.00    36.00     0.00   100.00    23.98P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              46   84  +48      84.00     0.00    48.00     0.00   100.00    45.16P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            46   81  +17      81.00     0.00    17.00     0.00   100.00    14.41P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     46   78  +26      78.00     0.00    26.00     0.00   100.00    16.45P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      46   72  +14      72.00     0.00    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington         46   71  +19      71.00     0.00    19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
York               46   71   +5      71.00     0.00     5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County     46   69  +18      69.00     0.00    18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bath_City          46   63   -4      63.00     0.00    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            46   62  +10      62.00     0.00    10.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   46   62   +3      62.00     0.00     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          46   61   -2      61.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering          46   58  -11      58.00     0.00   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          46   57   -3      57.00     0.00    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    46   51  -24      51.00     0.00   -24.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      46   50   -8      50.00     0.00    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow             46   50  -15      50.00     0.00   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           46   49  -21      49.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       46   46  -19      46.00     0.00   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport          46   46  -21      46.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         46   44  -40      44.00     0.00   -40.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    46   39  -42      39.00     0.00   -42.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Histon             46   28  -49      28.00     0.00   -49.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Histon             -5
Kidderminster      -5