Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 4 May 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 May 2011, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         35   73  +38      79.47     1.94    42.44    85.43    99.34   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         35   70  +38      75.21     2.10    39.85    14.32    82.78    99.03   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         35   67  +32      72.62     2.17    34.39     0.24    17.07    90.25   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   62  +22      68.71     2.57    23.81     0.00     0.81    10.72    97.23   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       35   55  +15      59.89     2.23    16.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   55   +7      61.22     2.33     8.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.33    99.65     0.00     0.00  
Everton         35   48   +5      52.00     2.27     4.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          35   46   +0      50.40     2.29     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          35   45   +7      48.78     2.21     6.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           35   43   +0      46.60     2.06    -0.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       35   43  -14      46.39     2.23   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       35   41   -2      45.30     2.01    -2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     35   41  -13      44.84     2.03   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      35   41  -13      44.91     2.19   -13.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Birmingham      35   39  -17      41.83     2.02   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.99R    0.00  
Blackburn       35   38  -14      41.02     2.12   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.06R    0.17  
Blackpool       35   35  -22      37.02     1.74   -26.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.40R   30.17  
Wigan           35   35  -23      38.05     2.07   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.24R   19.45  
Wolverhampton   35   34  -23      37.96     2.23   -23.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.58R   15.56  
West_Ham        35   32  -23      36.49     2.29   -22.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.64R   34.64  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2011, Cardiff vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
QPR              45   88  +40      89.87     1.28    40.74   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          45   83  +25      84.94     1.27    25.85     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          45   79  +22      80.34     1.32    21.94     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.53P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          45   77  +23      78.97     1.23    23.84     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          45   74  +25      76.08     1.23    26.10     0.00     0.00   100.00    26.66P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    45   72  +16      73.54     1.30    16.25     0.00     0.00    99.81    22.35P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     45   69  +10      69.89     1.19     9.26     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   67  +15      68.42     1.30    15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          45   67   +4      68.42     1.33     4.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hull             45   65   +4      66.32     1.29     3.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        45   64   +3      65.77     1.31     3.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          45   62   -4      63.00     1.24    -4.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          45   61   +8      62.48     1.34     8.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    45   59   -3      60.90     1.28    -2.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     45   57   -6      58.40     1.30    -5.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth       45   57   -7      58.66     1.31    -6.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   54   -4      54.83     1.16    -4.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   53  -12      54.30     1.29   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            45   49  -12      49.72     1.11   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   45   48  -22      49.17     1.26   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        45   48  -23      48.88     1.19   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   42  -31      42.78     1.11   -31.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    5.60  
Scunthorpe       45   41  -44      42.09     1.26   -44.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   25.44  
Preston          45   39  -27      40.29     1.32   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   68.96  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2011, Plymouth vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Brighton         45   94  +45      95.68     1.30    45.43   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      45   89  +46      91.30     1.12    47.50     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     45   86  +29      87.98     1.24    29.89     0.00     0.00   100.00    34.80P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   76  +26      78.22     1.19    27.47     0.00     0.00   100.00    29.60P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          45   74   +6      75.33     1.29     5.95     0.00     0.00   100.00    16.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      45   71  +22      72.72     1.31    22.49     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.94P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    45   67   +6      68.27     1.29     5.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Exeter           45   67   -8      67.88     1.19    -8.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         45   65   +7      66.03     1.24     6.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford        45   60   -7      60.78     1.12    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         45   59   +0      60.74     1.30     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       45   59   -7      60.90     1.27    -6.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        45   58   +1      59.89     1.28     1.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton         45   58   -4      59.90     1.28    -3.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         45   56   -5      57.62     1.31    -4.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   56   -6      57.40     1.30    -5.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           45   56  -12      57.00     1.23   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       45   56  -18      56.87     1.18   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County     45   49  -14      50.05     1.23   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.52R    0.00  
Walsall          45   48  -17      48.53     0.98   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.71R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red        45   47  -13      47.62     1.07   -14.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.77R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   45   45  -33      45.87     1.18   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Plymouth         45   42  -20      43.47     1.31   -19.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Swindon          45   38  -24      39.11     1.25   -24.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Plymouth         -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 April 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Chesterfield         45   83  +32      84.66     1.32    32.42    90.06   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   80  +32      81.34     1.29    31.97     9.94   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   77  +17      78.58     1.31    17.30     0.00    63.19   100.00    74.15P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           45   76  +20      77.79     1.28    20.60     0.00    36.81   100.00    54.42P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   72  +18      73.45     1.33    18.11     0.00     0.00   100.00    19.86P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              45   69  +23      70.23     1.29    22.79     0.00     0.00    92.98    24.82P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   68  +17      69.38     1.29    17.03     0.00     0.00    73.34    17.63P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           45   68  +12      69.10     1.26    11.58     0.00     0.00    33.68     9.13P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            45   65   +6      66.54     1.31     6.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            45   63  +13      64.51     1.32    13.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   63   +1      63.94     1.19     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crewe                45   62  +18      63.57     1.33    18.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southend             45   61   +8      62.16     1.26     7.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            45   58   -3      59.53     1.30    -2.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         45   54  -14      55.50     1.31   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford             45   52  -16      53.24     1.29   -16.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford             45   52  -21      53.19     1.29   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   51  -18      52.39     1.32   -17.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           45   51  -21      52.44     1.33   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        45   50  -14      51.31     1.32   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Northampton          45   49   -9      50.36     1.32    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         45   47  -33      48.19     1.27   -33.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.23R    0.00  
Barnet               45   45  -20      46.20     1.27   -20.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.77R    0.00  
Stockport            45   40  -48      41.33     1.32   -48.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 April 2011, AFC_Wimbledon vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Crawley_Town       46  105  +63     105.00     0.00    63.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      46   90  +36      90.00     0.00    36.00     0.00   100.00    24.09P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              46   84  +48      84.00     0.00    48.00     0.00   100.00    45.26P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            46   81  +17      81.00     0.00    17.00     0.00   100.00    14.14P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     46   78  +26      78.00     0.00    26.00     0.00   100.00    16.50P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      46   72  +14      72.00     0.00    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington         46   71  +19      71.00     0.00    19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
York               46   71   +5      71.00     0.00     5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County     46   69  +18      69.00     0.00    18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bath_City          46   63   -4      63.00     0.00    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            46   62  +10      62.00     0.00    10.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   46   62   +3      62.00     0.00     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          46   61   -2      61.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering          46   58  -11      58.00     0.00   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          46   57   -3      57.00     0.00    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    46   51  -24      51.00     0.00   -24.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      46   50   -8      50.00     0.00    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow             46   50  -15      50.00     0.00   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           46   49  -21      49.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       46   46  -19      46.00     0.00   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport          46   46  -21      46.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         46   44  -40      44.00     0.00   -40.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    46   39  -42      39.00     0.00   -42.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Histon             46   28  -49      28.00     0.00   -49.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Histon             -5
Kidderminster      -5