Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 18 April 2011 at 21:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 April 2011, Arsenal vs Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         32   69  +38      81.04     2.96    44.90    90.79    98.25    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         32   63  +32      73.43     3.21    35.38     4.43    45.60    93.95    99.53   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         32   61  +32      73.55     2.78    39.28     4.78    55.05    95.81    99.70   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        32   56  +20      66.66     3.16    23.74     0.00     0.90     8.33    78.12    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       31   53   +8      63.35     3.20     9.35     0.00     0.20     1.93    22.08    98.96     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       33   49   +7      57.96     2.85    10.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.55    84.24     0.00     0.00  
Everton         33   47   +6      53.18     2.83     4.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    12.18     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          32   43   +3      50.63     3.21     2.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.96     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   40  -12      46.95     2.81   -12.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.22R    0.00  
Newcastle       32   39   +1      46.41     3.00    -0.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.42R    0.00  
West_Brom       33   39  -15      44.42     2.84   -17.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.12R    0.03  
Fulham          32   38   +1      45.86     3.15     0.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.80R    0.00  
Stoke           32   38   -3      45.63     3.06    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.43R    0.03  
Birmingham      32   38  -10      43.74     2.77   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.11R    0.08  
Sunderland      33   38  -12      45.31     2.89   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.84R    0.06  
Blackburn       33   35  -14      40.69     2.85   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.46R    4.59  
Wigan           33   34  -21      39.04     2.72   -23.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.44R   16.31  
Blackpool       33   33  -22      37.63     2.59   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.71R   31.21  
West_Ham        33   32  -19      37.23     2.61   -22.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.00R   33.17  
Wolverhampton   32   32  -20      39.16     3.12   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.45R   14.52  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 April 2011, QPR vs Derby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
QPR              42   83  +38      89.16     2.61    39.00    97.39    99.81   100.00    99.87P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          42   75  +24      81.55     2.65    25.58     2.11    51.33   100.00    65.53P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          42   74  +19      80.47     2.62    20.47     0.36    26.77   100.00    43.97P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          42   72  +26      79.25     2.57    28.68     0.14    20.31    99.91    45.36P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          42   70  +18      76.28     2.56    19.17     0.00     1.78    97.97    24.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     42   65  +10      70.35     2.63     9.72     0.00     0.00    37.24     6.72P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    42   63  +10      69.74     2.56    11.91     0.00     0.00    30.74     6.82P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             42   63   +6      68.84     2.56     6.57     0.00     0.00    14.13     2.89P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         42   61  +12      67.34     2.62    13.30     0.00     0.00     9.22     1.82P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        42   60   +2      65.92     2.65     2.65     0.00     0.00     2.56     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          41   60   +1      67.09     3.00     1.26     0.00     0.00     7.25     1.40P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          42   59   +2      64.28     2.56     1.76     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          42   58  +11      63.82     2.65    11.46     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth       42   55   -6      60.69     2.64    -5.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     42   54   -6      59.20     2.60    -6.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         42   52   -3      56.94     2.50    -3.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         42   51  -11      56.06     2.56   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    41   50   -7      56.60     2.85    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            42   49   -7      53.51     2.51    -8.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster        42   45  -23      49.85     2.57   -24.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.38R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   42   43  -23      47.58     2.53   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.85R    0.12  
Scunthorpe       42   40  -39      43.66     2.40   -41.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.48R   10.76  
Preston          42   39  -21      43.20     2.54   -23.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.77R    9.01  
Sheff_Utd        42   35  -33      39.43     2.44   -34.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.50R   80.10  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 April 2011, Carlisle vs Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Brighton         42   93  +47      99.34     2.65    48.23   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      41   77  +38      86.40     2.80    41.97     0.00    78.93   100.00    88.04P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     42   77  +25      83.53     2.54    26.57     0.00    16.47   100.00    43.41P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     42   74  +27      81.22     2.58    29.92     0.00     4.52   100.00    32.85P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          42   71   +8      76.94     2.63     8.68     0.00     0.08    98.96    17.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      42   66  +21      72.67     2.61    22.77     0.00     0.00    80.32    15.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         42   64  +10      69.12     2.62     9.44     0.00     0.00    17.19     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    42   61   +7      66.47     2.64     6.91     0.00     0.00     2.21     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           42   61   -7      66.10     2.58    -7.64     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford        42   58   -4      62.57     2.49    -5.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       42   57   -5      62.75     2.59    -4.54     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         42   56   +3      62.03     2.63     3.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         42   54   -4      60.63     2.67    -2.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       42   54  -16      58.21     2.42   -18.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        42   53   -1      59.78     2.66     0.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           42   52   -6      57.43     2.61    -6.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           42   51  -14      55.22     2.48   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Tranmere         41   49  -11      55.87     2.92   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red        42   44  -14      47.92     2.41   -16.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.18R    1.57  
Walsall          42   43  -19      47.17     2.46   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.76R    3.16  
Bristol_Rovers   42   43  -32      46.92     2.48   -34.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.33R    4.48  
Notts_County     41   42  -15      47.57     2.81   -16.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.47R    3.85  
Swindon          42   38  -19      43.37     2.58   -19.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.54R   34.46  
Plymouth         41   36  -19      42.35     2.94   -19.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.50R   52.49  

Adjustments:
Plymouth         -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 April 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Chesterfield         42   81  +33      87.08     2.67    33.86    93.49   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 42   74  +32      80.29     2.57    33.23     6.48    95.94   100.00    97.16P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              42   70  +13      75.54     2.63    13.09     0.03    37.19    97.51    53.41P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           42   69  +17      75.69     2.64    18.75     0.00    47.37    97.55    60.16P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              42   66  +23      71.77     2.67    23.41     0.00     8.61    78.35    26.75P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            42   65  +19      70.49     2.62    19.05     0.00     2.53    59.11    16.41P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           42   65  +15      71.43     2.55    16.43     0.00     4.00    70.66    22.88P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   42   65  +13      71.09     2.62    13.88     0.00     4.25    63.06    15.20P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            42   62   +3      68.32     2.56     4.30     0.00     0.06    19.90     4.41P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            42   61  +14      66.71     2.66    14.34     0.00     0.04    13.06     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           42   58   +0      63.25     2.58    -0.34     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            42   57   -1      62.96     2.64    -0.27     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                42   56  +17      62.82     2.59    19.23     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             42   56   +7      62.34     2.63     8.29     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            42   50  -12      55.02     2.57   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Hereford             42   50  -14      55.11     2.60   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Cheltenham           42   48  -21      53.52     2.68   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39R    0.00  
Macclesfield         42   47  -17      51.52     2.55   -18.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.89R    0.00  
Bradford             41   47  -19      53.35     2.93   -19.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         42   47  -29      51.22     2.46   -30.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.65R    0.01  
Northampton          42   44  -11      49.78     2.66   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.01R    0.18  
Burton_Albion        41   44  -15      49.53     2.88   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.70R    0.13  
Barnet               42   41  -20      45.21     2.46   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.88R    4.15  
Stockport            42   36  -47      39.70     2.41   -50.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.64R   95.54  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 April 2011, Eastbourne_Boro vs Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Crawley_Town       43   98  +58     103.48     2.23    59.98   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      43   83  +34      88.41     2.29    35.98     0.00   100.00    24.33P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              42   77  +42      85.47     2.32    47.09     0.00   100.00    45.21P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            43   74  +14      78.17     2.12    14.10     0.00    91.21    13.88P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     43   72  +25      76.40     2.22    25.46     0.00    74.33    11.51P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      42   68  +15      74.44     2.54    16.51     0.00    32.58     4.79P    0.00     0.00  
York               42   66   +5      70.62     2.47     3.86     0.00     1.82     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County     43   63  +11      66.87     2.27    10.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington         42   61  +15      67.22     2.60    16.06     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   43   59   +8      62.57     2.16     7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          42   58   +2      63.51     2.62     1.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          42   57   +7      62.20     2.62     6.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bath_City          43   57   -5      61.89     2.31    -3.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            42   56   +8      62.02     2.58     8.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering          44   52  -14      55.69     1.83   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    43   48  -23      51.23     2.18   -24.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Barrow             43   47  -14      50.72     2.17   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      43   46   -8      50.49     2.20    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Tamworth           43   46  -19      50.08     2.19   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.20R    0.00  
Forest_Green       43   45  -17      48.11     2.18   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.36R    0.00  
Southport          43   42  -20      45.01     2.15   -21.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.08R    0.00  
Altrincham         43   41  -38      44.62     2.13   -38.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.15R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    43   33  -42      35.53     1.95   -45.35     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    1.70  
Histon             43   27  -44      28.99     1.86   -47.58     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.30  

Adjustments:
Histon             -5
Kidderminster      -5