Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 3 March 2011 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2011, Chelsea vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   60  +35      80.74     3.83    47.03    67.35    94.58    99.56    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   56  +30      77.85     4.29    41.07    29.86    82.51    97.29    99.63   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        28   50  +19      67.03     4.02    24.20     0.07     2.01    17.26    66.34    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   48  +25      71.88     3.85    39.77     2.68    19.76    76.55    94.59   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   47   +7      65.23     4.22    11.95     0.04     1.14     9.32    38.87    99.13     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   39   +1      54.46     4.19     3.51     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.52    49.39     0.01R    0.00  
Bolton          28   37   +1      49.20     4.11    -1.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.75     0.34R    0.01  
Sunderland      28   37   -2      50.19     4.01    -3.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    11.85     0.18R    0.01  
Newcastle       28   36   +4      49.73     4.10     3.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.77     0.32R    0.01  
Stoke           28   34   -3      45.37     3.97    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.28     4.04R    0.33  
Everton         27   33   -1      49.39     4.39     0.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    10.73     0.63R    0.05  
Aston_Villa     28   33  -12      47.27     4.16   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.70     2.32R    0.23  
Fulham          28   32   +0      44.88     3.98    -1.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.31     4.74R    0.33  
Blackburn       28   32  -11      43.43     4.00   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33    11.83R    1.22  
Blackpool       28   32  -13      41.50     3.81   -21.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    24.31R    3.98  
Birmingham      26   30  -10      43.50     4.31   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77    12.76R    1.91  
West_Brom       28   29  -17      38.26     3.97   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    57.62R   17.75  
Wolverhampton   28   28  -15      39.10     4.05   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    45.43R   11.42  
West_Ham        28   28  -16      38.36     3.90   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    54.68R   16.99  
Wigan           28   27  -22      35.76     3.73   -30.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.80R   45.77  

Adjustments:
Plymouth        -10


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2011, Derby vs Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
QPR              34   67  +36      88.04     4.64    42.65    73.18    90.34    99.93    93.23P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          34   62  +18      81.14     4.67    21.93     9.32    36.88    96.01    52.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          34   61  +17      81.42     4.76    22.92    11.76    40.07    96.49    55.80P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    34   59  +16      78.25     4.65    20.18     3.17    17.11    87.72    36.73P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          34   59  +12      77.35     4.71    14.99     2.14    11.87    82.81    26.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     34   54   +7      71.55     4.86     8.63     0.17     1.21    38.50     8.65P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        34   52   +0      69.12     4.72     0.99     0.02     0.26    19.33     4.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   50  +10      71.38     5.24    13.20     0.22     1.99    39.70    11.45P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             34   49   +4      65.96     4.67     4.92     0.00     0.04     7.22     1.79P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   48  +12      68.17     4.72    17.63     0.00     0.17    18.20     5.26P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         34   47   +6      63.11     4.71     5.70     0.00     0.01     2.63     0.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Portsmouth       34   47   +1      65.07     4.75     3.35     0.00     0.02     5.49     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          33   46   +8      64.37     5.01     8.62     0.00     0.01     5.57     1.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_City     34   42   -6      57.36     4.69    -7.47     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.70R    0.00  
Barnsley         34   42  -12      56.11     4.55   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.80R    0.01  
Doncaster        34   42  -15      56.20     4.59   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.65R    0.01  
Ipswich          33   40   -2      57.31     4.87    -2.82     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.96R    0.01  
Coventry         33   40   -3      56.12     4.82    -5.36     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.58R    0.01  
Derby            34   39   -5      53.09     4.53    -8.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.02R    0.06  
Middlesbrough    33   37   -6      54.85     4.88    -5.96     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.07R    0.03  
Crystal_Palace   34   35  -21      48.71     4.49   -24.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.65R    1.46  
Scunthorpe       33   31  -27      43.74     4.61   -35.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.01R   14.56  
Sheff_Utd        34   29  -24      42.53     4.50   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.24R   18.67  
Preston          33   24  -26      37.66     4.74   -32.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.30R   65.18  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2011, Brentford vs Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Brighton         31   62  +34      87.84     5.34    41.84    75.58    90.68    99.89    93.37P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      33   58  +23      78.47     5.06    26.87     6.10    29.44    91.76    43.60P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     33   56  +16      77.73     4.96    21.98     4.60    21.89    89.36    39.89P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     32   53  +12      75.62     5.32    17.48     2.25    13.54    77.38    27.45P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      31   52  +25      79.30     5.25    35.42    10.91    39.15    93.06    60.38P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   52   -1      67.92     4.75    -1.95     0.04     0.44    19.50     3.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       33   48   -1      67.29     4.90     1.26     0.03     0.29    16.53     3.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Charlton         31   47   +3      70.28     5.47     7.01     0.27     2.40    38.57    11.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           33   46   -1      62.54     4.86    -2.77     0.00     0.01     3.33     0.53P    0.40R    0.00  
Carlisle         32   45   +8      64.98     5.18     9.02     0.01     0.19    10.97     2.44P    0.12R    0.00  
Rochdale         30   45   +8      66.35     5.67     7.03     0.08     0.69    17.78     3.91P    0.08R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    30   44   +9      67.79     5.69    11.63     0.11     1.09    25.12     5.59P    0.06R    0.00  
Hartlepool       33   44  -14      59.37     4.79   -17.97     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.08P    3.07R    0.03  
Brentford        32   43   -3      59.69     5.00    -6.52     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.20P    2.16R    0.02  
Exeter           33   43   -7      59.32     4.89    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.09P    3.00R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed        31   40   +3      64.79     5.42     9.29     0.01     0.14    10.41     2.83P    0.39R    0.01  
Notts_County     29   39   +1      61.03     5.84    -0.82     0.01     0.06     3.78     0.82P    2.37R    0.04  
Tranmere         32   38   -6      55.38     5.01    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   12.32R    0.47  
Yeovil           32   36  -15      52.03     4.90   -19.77     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   34.35R    2.17  
Plymouth         33   36  -18      52.09     4.97   -20.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   34.84R    2.30  
Walsall          34   34  -17      47.91     4.60   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.56R    9.01  
Swindon          33   31  -16      48.16     4.89   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.91R    9.16  
Bristol_Rovers   33   30  -30      43.21     4.69   -37.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.06R   46.46  
Dag_&_Red        30   29  -13      44.75     5.33   -23.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.29R   30.31  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2011, Aldershot vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Chesterfield         34   65  +26      84.89     4.85    31.11    72.42    95.47    99.89    96.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   56   +8      76.46     5.02    12.06     6.57    46.77    90.10    57.44P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   54  +22      76.85     5.16    27.47    11.03    55.40    92.94    65.37P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            33   54  +17      75.04     5.01    21.78     5.50    39.20    87.38    52.09P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52  +16      72.85     4.95    20.53     1.85    23.54    76.76    37.68P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            32   51   +7      72.27     5.12    10.19     1.70    18.38    68.59    29.55P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   49   +6      68.18     4.75    10.00     0.14     4.02    38.40    13.01P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             32   47   +5      69.75     5.28    10.25     0.48     9.37    51.15    21.01P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   47   +0      62.27     4.69    -1.60     0.00     0.24     6.32     1.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage            32   45  +12      65.81     5.19    14.46     0.11     2.47    25.64     8.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Torquay              32   45  +10      64.77     5.21    10.86     0.07     1.88    19.39     5.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Cheltenham           34   44   -7      58.61     4.72   -10.06     0.00     0.02     1.27     0.22P    0.22R    0.01  
Crewe                32   42   +8      65.15     5.32    14.36     0.07     1.96    22.45     7.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   42   -1      63.86     5.65    -1.27     0.05     1.20    14.71     3.44P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   41  -14      55.87     4.95   -20.53     0.00     0.01     0.55     0.08P    1.42R    0.06  
Northampton          33   40   -4      58.28     5.00    -3.29     0.00     0.02     1.45     0.34P    0.41R    0.02  
Aldershot            33   38   -8      55.42     4.90    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    1.83R    0.17  
Hereford             31   37   -7      54.44     5.26   -11.72     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.05P    3.53R    0.26  
Morecambe            33   37  -10      53.41     4.95   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    4.45R    0.38  
Bradford             32   37  -11      54.15     5.09   -13.85     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    3.41R    0.23  
Macclesfield         30   35   -9      53.15     5.43   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    5.58R    0.58  
Burton_Albion        28   32   -5      56.17     6.09    -6.04     0.00     0.06     1.72     0.39P    3.12R    0.46  
Barnet               33   30  -20      42.87     4.72   -27.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.44R   22.20  
Stockport            34   28  -41      38.63     4.36   -51.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.50R   75.64  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 March 2011, Tamworth vs Kettering; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
AFC_Wimbledon      36   71  +30      87.36     4.26    34.04     7.43    99.61    29.33P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       30   67  +36      94.52     5.52    44.69    61.02    99.97    71.91P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      35   62  +13      76.28     4.36    11.59     0.04    55.58     8.74P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   61  +34      91.04     4.99    49.64    31.39    99.80    61.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            34   59  +12      78.99     4.54    17.48     0.12    78.38    15.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     36   54  +13      69.30     4.27    15.42     0.00     8.47     1.35P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   51   +3      71.01     4.80     6.51     0.00    14.75     2.61P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   32   49   +9      69.86     5.02    11.78     0.00    13.43     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington         32   47  +14      69.94     5.09    19.51     0.00    14.64     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County     34   47   +6      64.08     4.79     6.99     0.00     1.34     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   45   +9      68.49     5.18    15.64     0.00     9.30     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   45   +4      63.73     5.12     3.13     0.00     1.38     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bath_City          35   45   -4      58.57     4.49    -6.76     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield          31   43   +4      65.38     5.41     6.59     0.00     3.32     0.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Kettering          34   42   -8      58.23     4.58    -8.38     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Tamworth           34   41   -9      54.71     4.44   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      35   38   -7      53.73     4.43    -5.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.02  
Southport          33   35   -4      49.82     4.78    -8.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.29R    0.63  
Forest_Green       34   35  -18      48.67     4.57   -22.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.59R    0.90  
Histon             34   32  -24      43.25     4.28   -32.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.18R    9.31  
Hayes_&_Yeading    35   32  -28      41.85     4.07   -37.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.75R   16.50  
Barrow             32   29  -17      44.22     4.82   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.40R    8.80  
Altrincham         33   29  -37      43.52     4.72   -42.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.08R   13.52  
Eastbourne_Boro    33   26  -31      38.55     4.56   -40.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.55R   50.32