Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 25 February 2011 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 23 February 2011, Arsenal vs Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   57  +32      81.00     4.25    44.77    67.58    94.59    99.29    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   56  +30      77.81     4.29    40.98    29.99    85.58    96.99    99.58   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        27   49  +19      68.10     4.25    25.20     0.31     4.36    30.51    73.54    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   47   +7      65.16     4.23    11.84     0.04     1.21    10.92    36.44    98.56     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   45  +24      70.39     4.16    38.83     2.08    14.25    62.14    88.77    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   39   +3      56.43     4.42     6.36     0.00     0.01     0.14     1.57    60.25     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      27   37   +0      51.23     4.25    -1.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    12.97     0.08R    0.01  
Bolton          27   36   +1      48.97     4.33    -2.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.75     0.48R    0.01  
Newcastle       27   35   +4      50.75     4.32     4.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    13.22     0.15R    0.00  
Stoke           27   33   -3      46.36     4.24    -5.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.42     2.47R    0.19  
Blackburn       27   32   -8      44.64     4.25   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.52     6.16R    0.57  
Blackpool       27   32   -9      42.90     4.12   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    12.93R    1.59  
Fulham          27   31   +0      44.50     4.20    -2.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82     5.23R    0.37  
Everton         26   30   -3      48.12     4.63    -0.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.87     1.61R    0.11  
Birmingham      26   30  -10      43.56     4.33   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43    10.57R    1.36  
Aston_Villa     27   30  -15      45.82     4.38   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.28     4.95R    0.57  
West_Brom       27   28  -17      38.22     4.20   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    53.56R   15.56  
Wigan           27   27  -18      36.46     3.90   -27.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.75R   28.58  
West_Ham        27   25  -18      36.02     4.10   -25.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.14R   31.45  
Wolverhampton   27   25  -19      37.34     4.28   -22.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    58.92R   19.63  

Adjustments:
Plymouth        -10


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 February 2011, Cardiff vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
QPR              33   64  +33      86.01     4.92    39.09    66.01    85.03    99.61    89.17P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   59  +15      79.54     4.94    18.99    10.02    32.86    90.72    47.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   58  +15      79.42     4.98    20.37    11.05    32.39    91.12    48.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    32   57  +16      78.96     5.07    20.19     8.93    29.79    88.42    46.09P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          33   56  +10      75.65     4.94    12.84     2.33    10.68    71.02    23.68P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   54  +10      72.77     5.06    11.43     1.01     4.71    49.41    14.02P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        33   51   +0      69.97     4.93     1.69     0.17     1.01    25.44     6.44P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             33   49   +5      67.66     4.92     6.39     0.07     0.49    14.62     4.01P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          33   47  +12      68.66     4.92    17.76     0.06     0.62    21.92     6.80P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +9      70.03     5.49    12.61     0.34     2.19    31.42     9.83P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         33   46   +7      63.69     4.97     6.96     0.00     0.03     4.29     0.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Watford          32   45   +8      64.59     5.25     8.35     0.02     0.15     7.19     1.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich          32   42   +2      61.46     5.14     2.33     0.00     0.02     2.10     0.53P    0.18R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   42   -9      57.87     4.85   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    1.55R    0.01  
Portsmouth       32   41   -3      62.06     5.20    -0.21     0.01     0.03     2.23     0.61P    0.23R    0.01  
Coventry         32   39   -4      55.96     4.99    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    3.07R    0.05  
Bristol_City     33   38  -10      54.89     4.92   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.18R    0.16  
Doncaster        32   38  -16      54.46     5.03   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.22R    0.30  
Derby            32   36   -4      53.23     5.01    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    8.98R    0.29  
Middlesbrough    31   36   -4      56.79     5.29    -3.60     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    2.69R    0.07  
Crystal_Palace   33   34  -21      48.73     4.68   -25.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.79R    3.05  
Scunthorpe       31   31  -23      45.65     5.05   -32.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.91R   13.68  
Sheff_Utd        33   29  -23      44.29     4.75   -26.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.78R   16.73  
Preston          32   24  -25      38.88     4.98   -32.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.39R   65.63  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 25 February 2011, Notts_County vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Brighton         29   59  +34      88.27     5.73    42.91    75.15    91.13    99.80    93.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      32   55  +22      77.00     5.24    26.11     3.90    21.41    86.69    36.86P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     31   52  +15      77.27     5.38    22.19     4.71    21.67    86.60    39.71P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     31   50   +7      73.05     5.59    10.76     0.89     6.69    60.06    17.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      29   49  +23      80.33     5.59    35.49    14.22    49.36    94.57    66.91P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   49   -2      65.99     4.93    -3.41     0.02     0.21    12.13     2.20P    0.05R    0.00  
Charlton         30   47   +5      72.48     5.65    10.24     0.79     6.21    56.19    19.55P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           32   46   +4      64.71     5.14     3.38     0.01     0.12     9.79     1.92P    0.16R    0.00  
Colchester       31   45   -1      67.14     5.37     1.41     0.05     0.51    18.72     4.24P    0.07R    0.00  
Rochdale         29   44   +8      66.77     5.86     7.04     0.11     1.01    21.19     5.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    29   43   +9      67.54     5.83    10.69     0.13     1.24    25.07     5.85P    0.10R    0.00  
Carlisle         30   42   +7      64.35     5.56     7.43     0.02     0.22    10.96     2.43P    0.40R    0.00  
Exeter           31   42   -6      61.84     5.38    -7.51     0.00     0.01     3.63     0.53P    1.48R    0.01  
Hartlepool       31   41  -14      58.59     5.18   -18.83     0.00     0.01     0.81     0.10P    5.25R    0.11  
Brentford        30   39   -4      59.09     5.48    -6.62     0.00     0.01     1.52     0.31P    4.00R    0.11  
Notts_County     28   38   +1      61.10     6.02    -1.27     0.00     0.07     4.54     1.02P    2.57R    0.07  
Sheff_Wed        30   37   +2      62.99     5.66     8.11     0.00     0.11     7.11     1.97P    1.02R    0.02  
Tranmere         30   37   -5      57.23     5.44    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.10P    8.12R    0.38  
Yeovil           30   33  -15      51.04     5.35   -20.88     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    42.02R    5.36  
Plymouth         32   33  -19      50.45     5.15   -21.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   45.94R    6.27  
Swindon          32   31  -13      48.94     5.02   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.60R    8.96  
Walsall          32   30  -18      46.00     5.04   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.95R   22.89  
Bristol_Rovers   31   30  -28      45.64     5.13   -36.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.58R   29.48  
Dag_&_Red        29   29  -12      45.96     5.56   -22.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.57R   26.32  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 February 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Chesterfield         32   62  +25      85.38     5.27    31.23    74.10    95.14    99.82    96.30P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   53  +10      76.70     5.47    14.76     9.23    50.71    88.62    60.53P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   51  +19      75.43     5.35    24.74     6.45    45.27    86.63    56.80P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            31   50  +15      73.71     5.40    19.66     3.86    31.92    78.23    43.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   48  +17      72.96     5.60    21.52     3.61    28.83    73.45    40.43P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            31   48   +6      70.51     5.28     9.00     0.85    12.39    54.28    21.63P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   47   +6      68.92     5.20    10.04     0.43     7.39    43.75    17.01P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   47   +4      65.99     5.20     3.84     0.09     2.56    22.74     6.15P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             31   46   +5      70.59     5.45    10.91     0.79    13.59    56.27    25.96P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              30   44  +11      66.74     5.63    12.15     0.31     5.32    31.22    11.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                31   42  +10      66.45     5.54    16.21     0.23     4.36    30.45    10.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage            31   42   +8      63.75     5.39     9.88     0.02     1.25    14.62     4.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Cheltenham           32   41   -4      59.04     5.20    -5.90     0.00     0.09     2.40     0.47P    0.20R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley   29   39   -2      61.92     5.83    -2.79     0.02     0.77     8.93     2.18P    0.16R    0.02  
Northampton          31   39   -3      60.33     5.42    -1.82     0.01     0.27     4.47     1.34P    0.17R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         30   38  -14      55.36     5.34   -20.67     0.00     0.03     0.67     0.11P    1.91R    0.19  
Aldershot            31   37   -7      57.12     5.31    -7.49     0.00     0.03     1.14     0.24P    0.88R    0.11  
Macclesfield         29   35   -8      54.34     5.61   -14.12     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.10P    3.12R    0.40  
Hereford             30   34   -9      52.32     5.46   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    6.51R    1.10  
Morecambe            32   34  -12      50.89     5.07   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    8.69R    1.52  
Bradford             31   34  -12      53.05     5.33   -14.03     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    4.76R    0.86  
Burton_Albion        26   29   -4      55.23     6.39    -5.94     0.00     0.08     1.44     0.36P    3.66R    0.81  
Stockport            32   28  -39      40.31     4.77   -50.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.20R   55.17  
Barnet               32   27  -22      41.15     4.89   -30.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.71R   39.80  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 February 2011, AFC_Wimbledon vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
AFC_Wimbledon      34   67  +27      87.55     4.68    33.38    10.12    99.31    30.60P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       29   64  +35      93.94     5.68    45.39    59.53    99.90    70.90P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   59  +13      80.25     4.78    18.38     0.47    83.47    16.52P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   59  +12      74.62     4.62    10.54     0.04    40.54     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              30   58  +33      90.35     5.14    50.12    29.82    99.69    61.21P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     34   54  +18      73.37     4.67    22.59     0.01    34.27     5.95P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County     32   46   +8      66.01     5.25     9.30     0.00     3.97     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   46   +5      68.47     5.24     8.08     0.00     9.01     1.81P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   45   +9      68.41     5.21    15.44     0.00     8.89     1.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   45   +5      64.55     5.30     3.36     0.00     2.21     0.24P    0.00R    0.00  
York               31   45   +1      68.26     5.26     5.22     0.00     7.05     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington         31   44  +10      68.06     5.30    15.13     0.00     8.56     2.04P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          31   43   +4      65.26     5.40     6.39     0.00     3.02     0.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Bath_City          33   42   -1      58.46     4.95    -3.48     0.00     0.05     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Kettering          32   39   -8      58.24     5.06    -7.94     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.14R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   38   -7      54.52     4.91   -11.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.87R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      34   37   -7      53.93     4.67    -6.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.93R    0.01  
Southport          31   32   -5      49.58     5.20    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.19R    0.75  
Forest_Green       32   32  -21      47.54     4.92   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.86R    1.52  
Histon             33   32  -22      44.56     4.57   -30.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.44R    3.91  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   31  -27      42.69     4.50   -37.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.32R    9.22  
Barrow             31   29  -16      44.69     4.93   -24.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.82R    5.16  
Altrincham         32   29  -34      44.10     4.85   -40.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.85R    8.04  
Eastbourne_Boro    32   23  -32      35.71     4.69   -44.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.53R   71.38