Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 3 February 2011 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 February 2011, Birmingham vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   54  +32      82.68     4.63    47.83    71.86    92.37    99.16    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   49  +27      77.64     4.83    42.52    21.20    70.56    93.91    99.01   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        25   46  +17      67.78     4.61    23.11     0.30     3.55    18.51    69.32    99.23     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   44  +25      73.77     4.53    42.47     6.59    32.30    80.70    95.73    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       24   41   +7      64.70     4.93    13.98     0.06     1.20     7.57    33.65    95.52     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      25   37   +2      53.96     4.71     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.73    29.76     0.02R    0.00  
Liverpool       25   35   +2      55.34     4.74     5.67     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.44    45.33     0.00R    0.00  
Bolton          25   33   +0      47.84     4.74    -5.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.53     1.21R    0.03  
Blackburn       25   31   -7      46.76     4.72   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.28     2.80R    0.16  
Newcastle       24   30   +2      48.98     5.09     1.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     8.57     1.08R    0.03  
Stoke           24   30   -2      46.33     4.78    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.36     3.28R    0.19  
Fulham          25   29   +0      44.26     4.57    -3.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.01     6.03R    0.36  
Blackpool       24   28   -9      41.63     4.75   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25    20.63R    2.95  
Aston_Villa     25   28  -15      47.12     4.86   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.04     3.23R    0.26  
Everton         24   27   -3      48.81     5.03     0.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     7.51     1.29R    0.08  
West_Brom       24   26  -14      40.53     4.88   -22.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21    29.68R    5.52  
Birmingham      23   24  -10      41.65     4.98   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39    20.13R    3.40  
West_Ham        25   24  -17      37.71     4.57   -24.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    52.71R   13.26  
Wigan           25   23  -19      33.97     4.25   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.10R   41.77  
Wolverhampton   24   21  -18      34.79     4.71   -26.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.81R   31.99  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 February 2011, Barnsley vs Preston; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
QPR              29   56  +30      84.00     5.71    36.87    51.54    73.30    98.01    80.03P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          29   51  +10      76.35     5.84    13.13     6.77    19.36    72.60    30.64P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          29   50  +11      76.08     5.66    15.17     5.74    17.82    72.82    31.26P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    27   49  +15      79.53     6.12    21.85    18.96    40.72    86.99    53.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          28   48  +12      77.48     5.99    19.51    10.91    26.95    79.72    41.61P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     29   46   +7      71.33     5.95    10.07     1.51     5.41    41.37    13.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford          27   43  +13      71.15     6.24    16.06     1.88     6.31    42.29    14.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading          28   42  +13      72.11     5.93    21.25     2.14     7.37    49.89    20.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         29   42   +8      65.42     5.79     8.30     0.13     0.57    11.91     3.06P    0.09R    0.00  
Leicester        29   42   -4      66.57     5.75    -2.23     0.14     0.74    13.76     3.59P    0.07R    0.00  
Burnley          28   40   +6      66.27     6.10     8.13     0.25     1.11    16.22     4.92P    0.10R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   40   -5      59.99     5.60   -10.33     0.00     0.02     1.50     0.27P    1.52R    0.05  
Hull             29   39   -1      62.88     5.78     0.03     0.02     0.14     4.99     1.27P    0.42R    0.00  
Doncaster        27   37   -4      61.01     6.14    -7.25     0.03     0.12     3.18     0.70P    1.46R    0.03  
Coventry         29   36   -3      56.61     5.57    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P    5.04R    0.26  
Derby            28   34   -1      56.88     5.91    -4.15     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.13P    5.38R    0.31  
Ipswich          27   34   -5      58.78     6.05    -7.00     0.00     0.03     1.37     0.33P    3.29R    0.17  
Middlesbrough    28   33   -3      57.90     5.88    -2.54     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.21P    3.56R    0.12  
Bristol_City     29   32  -13      52.46     5.63   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   19.73R    2.08  
Portsmouth       28   31   -7      58.94     6.08    -2.24     0.00     0.01     1.42     0.40P    3.39R    0.28  
Crystal_Palace   29   28  -21      47.29     5.50   -26.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.02R   11.15  
Sheff_Utd        28   27  -18      49.28     5.82   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   40.00R    7.07  
Scunthorpe       26   24  -20      44.69     6.06   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.98R   26.10  
Preston          27   21  -20      40.85     5.88   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.94R   52.37  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 February 2011, Bristol_Rovers vs MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Brighton         26   50  +25      83.51     6.38    34.03    41.45    64.73    96.17    72.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      28   49  +21      77.36     6.20    26.44    10.20    25.60    80.59    37.73P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     27   46  +12      77.66     6.28    20.60    10.52    25.75    80.65    40.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      26   44  +22      80.73     6.32    36.49    25.74    48.31    91.58    64.95P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           27   43   +6      69.12     6.20     6.06     0.70     2.57    29.44     7.50P    0.11R    0.00  
MK_Dons          28   43   -2      67.23     6.00    -2.96     0.25     1.12    18.65     4.32P    0.28R    0.00  
Peterborough     26   42   +5      71.70     6.69     8.10     2.06     6.96    45.40    14.80P    0.08R    0.00  
Charlton         25   41   +7      76.06     6.65    16.57     7.75    19.56    71.49    33.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester       26   38   -1      67.74     6.47     2.48     0.40     1.61    22.67     6.06P    0.49R    0.01  
Rochdale         26   37   +5      63.64     6.52     3.62     0.11     0.51     9.85     2.36P    1.97R    0.05  
Carlisle         25   35   +8      64.69     6.60     9.11     0.17     0.75    13.34     3.41P    1.47R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed        26   35   +6      68.02     6.54    14.48     0.55     2.18    27.00     9.35P    0.48R    0.02  
Exeter           27   35   -7      57.92     6.05   -12.38     0.00     0.01     1.20     0.19P   12.13R    0.52  
Hartlepool       26   34  -12      56.93     6.19   -19.36     0.00     0.02     0.82     0.16P   16.75R    0.87  
Leyton_Orient    25   33   +2      61.67     6.62     1.57     0.06     0.21     5.74     1.26P    4.71R    0.19  
Plymouth         29   33  -11      55.77     5.85   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P   18.91R    1.18  
Yeovil           27   33  -11      55.79     6.09   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P   20.70R    1.49  
Notts_County     25   32   +0      59.92     6.67    -1.33     0.03     0.11     3.57     0.82P    7.69R    0.40  
Brentford        27   32   -7      55.73     6.06   -10.38     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P   19.57R    1.29  
Tranmere         26   31   -8      54.53     6.21   -14.03     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P   27.18R    2.29  
Swindon          28   30   -8      54.06     5.95    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P   26.78R    2.26  
Bristol_Rovers   27   27  -22      47.30     6.00   -31.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    74.41R   20.14  
Dag_&_Red        25   24  -12      45.10     6.44   -24.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   80.54R   33.47  
Walsall          28   24  -18      44.33     5.82   -25.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.76R   35.81  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 February 2011, Accrington_Stanley vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Chesterfield         27   54  +23      85.54     6.36    31.21    58.33    89.73    99.19    92.14P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              26   49  +10      81.32     6.49    17.36    24.71    71.45    95.07    77.47P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            27   44  +14      74.03     6.31    19.94     4.30    30.04    74.52    41.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   43  +15      73.97     6.43    20.36     5.18    30.14    74.07    41.04P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            27   43   +7      71.84     6.07    11.26     1.75    16.48    61.07    26.74P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   42  +12      69.86     5.96    16.80     0.79    10.89    50.88    21.44P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                27   41  +14      72.16     6.40    22.18     2.85    21.90    65.53    32.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           28   41   +4      68.65     6.14     8.37     0.60     7.87    40.53    16.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             27   39   +5      70.27     6.27    12.76     1.05    12.60    52.08    24.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   39   +0      61.35     6.01    -3.23     0.03     0.63     7.66     1.93P    0.19R    0.03  
Cheltenham           28   38   -1      62.85     6.09    -0.92     0.03     0.98    11.77     3.03P    0.21R    0.03  
Stevenage            25   34   +9      63.82     6.59    10.74     0.12     2.53    18.84     6.55P    0.14R    0.02  
Northampton          26   34   -3      63.66     6.44     0.36     0.09     1.73    15.69     5.23P    0.19R    0.03  
Torquay              25   33   +5      63.08     6.66     6.92     0.13     1.97    16.00     5.21P    0.25R    0.04  
Accrington_Stanley   25   32   -2      58.73     6.57    -5.48     0.02     0.31     4.77     1.06P    1.57R    0.30  
Aldershot            26   32   -7      58.58     6.31    -8.16     0.00     0.20     3.68     0.86P    1.40R    0.25  
Morecambe            26   31   -5      57.70     6.40    -6.37     0.00     0.19     3.08     0.78P    1.88R    0.32  
Bradford             28   31  -11      53.34     5.89   -14.23     0.00     0.02     0.34     0.06P    6.05R    1.30  
Lincoln_City         25   31  -11      54.25     6.31   -19.06     0.00     0.04     0.92     0.17P    5.92R    1.15  
Hereford             25   28  -11      53.01     6.50   -16.92     0.00     0.02     0.65     0.15P    8.98R    2.30  
Macclesfield         25   27  -13      49.94     6.36   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   18.94R    5.67  
Burton_Albion        22   25   -1      56.31     7.22    -3.80     0.01     0.27     3.50     1.00P    4.39R    1.11  
Barnet               28   25  -18      42.74     5.62   -29.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.08R   30.84  
Stockport            29   25  -35      40.44     5.42   -48.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.81R   56.60  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 February 2011, Kettering vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
AFC_Wimbledon      30   58  +23      84.86     5.53    30.54     4.56    95.26    24.10P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              28   57  +35      93.66     5.53    54.67    53.85    99.89    74.51P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       26   57  +33      92.37     6.22    45.48    39.62    99.60    56.27P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            28   52  +17      81.38     5.71    24.34     1.89    86.29    20.91P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   49   +9      70.58     5.44     8.23     0.01    17.83     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     30   48  +15      70.29     5.52    15.70     0.01    18.76     3.11P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            29   43  +12      73.05     5.76    22.63     0.04    37.76     9.47P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County     29   43   +8      66.08     5.83     7.55     0.00     5.88     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          29   41   +4      66.94     5.80     7.90     0.00     7.41     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   41   +1      68.70     5.87     5.72     0.01    11.30     2.18P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   28   40   +3      68.36     5.78     9.12     0.00    11.09     2.44P    0.00     0.00  
Bath_City          29   38   -1      59.50     5.81    -4.28     0.00     0.55     0.07P    0.18R    0.00  
Darlington         27   36   +4      66.18     6.13    10.18     0.01     7.03     1.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -3      57.20     5.73    -7.24     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.68R    0.01  
Kettering          28   35   -5      61.87     5.86    -1.77     0.00     1.02     0.17P    0.07R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   33   -5      57.25     5.76    -3.44     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.67R    0.02  
Gateshead          27   33   -6      54.52     5.87   -13.17     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.49R    0.15  
Southport          28   29   -7      49.34     5.79   -14.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.24R    2.00  
Barrow             27   27  -13      47.51     5.79   -22.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.13R    3.43  
Forest_Green       28   27  -18      46.97     5.71   -26.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.17R    4.17  
Histon             28   25  -23      43.83     5.64   -32.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.91R   12.17  
Hayes_&_Yeading    29   25  -27      40.99     5.29   -40.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.22R   24.64  
Altrincham         28   25  -31      45.31     5.67   -38.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.09R    8.38  
Eastbourne_Boro    29   22  -25      38.31     5.29   -38.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.17R   45.02