Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 21 January 2011 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 January 2011, Birmingham vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   45  +24      80.61     5.15    44.10    65.47    88.41    96.90    99.69   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        23   45  +18      70.21     5.05    25.25     3.13    16.01    46.14    85.31    99.65     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   43  +23      76.33     5.13    42.00    26.07    70.30    90.17    98.17    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   38  +19      70.96     5.06    36.70     5.18    23.58    58.66    89.13    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   37   +6      63.10     5.45    12.42     0.15     1.70     7.90    25.34    90.47     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      23   34   +3      53.02     5.11     0.63     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.81    27.20     0.14R    0.00  
Bolton          23   30   +3      47.94     5.16    -1.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     7.08     2.22R    0.13  
Stoke           22   30   +2      48.49     5.17    -3.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     7.79     1.84R    0.14  
Newcastle       22   29   +3      50.74     5.50     2.33     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.45    18.15     0.89R    0.03  
Blackpool       21   28   -5      45.80     5.51   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     3.67     8.02R    0.99  
Blackburn       23   28   -8      46.63     5.21   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.72     5.05R    0.47  
Everton         22   26   -2      50.64     5.39     1.68     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.29    16.86     0.94R    0.06  
Liverpool       22   26   -4      51.60     5.41     1.22     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.47    21.17     0.69R    0.05  
West_Brom       22   25  -12      42.87     5.37   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.11    19.21R    3.38  
Fulham          22   23   -2      41.97     5.19    -6.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83    19.26R    2.79  
Birmingham      21   23   -5      42.51     5.30   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.01    17.98R    3.09  
Aston_Villa     22   22  -15      43.90     5.45   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.49    14.18R    2.54  
Wigan           22   22  -15      35.43     4.79   -29.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    73.50R   31.81  
Wolverhampton   22   21  -14      36.86     5.12   -23.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    60.73R   19.64  
West_Ham        23   20  -19      34.98     4.88   -28.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    75.35R   34.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 January 2011, Bristol_City vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
QPR              26   49  +27      81.74     6.26    34.84    44.17    64.72    94.04    72.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          27   46   +9      74.41     6.10    12.60     6.35    16.85    62.90    27.89P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +10      76.82     6.35    18.39    14.40    30.60    76.54    42.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Norwich          26   44   +8      73.42     6.51    10.98     5.59    14.54    55.83    23.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United     27   44   +7      71.14     6.36     8.51     2.87     8.28    42.50    15.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford          25   42  +15      73.84     6.62    19.60     7.73    18.69    61.09    28.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading          26   40  +13      73.13     6.39    21.59     6.11    15.27    58.01    28.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    24   40  +12      75.06     6.69    19.55    10.53    23.14    67.33    35.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         26   39   +9      66.61     6.36     9.48     0.69     2.27    19.67     6.05P    0.19R    0.01  
Burnley          25   36   +6      66.33     6.86     7.92     0.84     2.76    20.30     7.24P    0.45R    0.03  
Coventry         27   36   -1      58.77     5.92    -5.83     0.01     0.05     1.59     0.33P    4.15R    0.23  
Hull             26   36   -1      63.64     6.38    -0.49     0.17     0.78     9.00     2.75P    0.85R    0.02  
Leicester        27   36   -7      62.68     6.10    -6.18     0.06     0.28     5.75     1.49P    1.15R    0.05  
Derby            26   34   +1      60.53     6.35    -0.72     0.05     0.19     3.81     0.95P    2.81R    0.16  
Doncaster        24   34   -2      63.08     6.77    -3.85     0.24     0.72     8.74     2.44P    1.62R    0.08  
Barnsley         25   33   -7      57.32     6.36   -14.18     0.01     0.05     1.21     0.23P    8.92R    0.79  
Bristol_City     26   31  -10      55.19     6.25   -15.00     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.09P   14.83R    1.47  
Portsmouth       25   30   -4      63.15     6.74     2.64     0.17     0.72     9.26     3.17P    1.73R    0.13  
Middlesbrough    26   29   -5      57.85     6.24    -2.75     0.01     0.04     1.27     0.32P    6.51R    0.46  
Ipswich          25   28   -7      55.02     6.44    -9.74     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.13P   15.11R    1.75  
Sheff_Utd        26   27  -16      52.74     6.25   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.05P   25.89R    3.65  
Crystal_Palace   26   25  -21      47.92     6.14   -28.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    58.14R   13.85  
Scunthorpe       24   23  -18      45.72     6.47   -30.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    70.45R   25.69  
Preston          25   20  -18      41.67     6.26   -30.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.16R   51.63  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 January 2011, Bristol_Rovers vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Brighton         23   46  +24      83.92     7.04    33.48    41.32    65.14    95.51    72.51P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +10      77.35     6.70    20.05     9.76    25.09    78.41    38.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      24   41  +23      82.28     6.72    40.19    32.63    58.70    93.73    71.89P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      25   40  +18      72.32     6.87    23.22     3.08     9.59    53.55    19.40P    0.08R    0.00  
Peterborough     23   36   +0      69.08     7.38     1.67     1.25     4.39    33.39     9.74P    0.72R    0.01  
MK_Dons          25   36   -4      64.02     6.62    -5.51     0.12     0.56    10.94     2.52P    2.27R    0.03  
Charlton         23   35   +4      73.45     7.13    14.57     4.01    12.14    58.14    24.78P    0.08R    0.00  
Oldham           23   35   +1      66.11     7.04     0.29     0.35     1.48    19.27     4.57P    1.43R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed        23   34  +12      74.28     7.12    25.17     5.58    15.39    64.41    31.32P    0.08R    0.00  
Colchester       22   34   +1      68.76     7.29     3.65     1.14     3.97    31.58     9.81P    0.69R    0.00  
Rochdale         24   33   +4      61.49     7.04     1.20     0.08     0.38     7.44     1.75P    5.69R    0.18  
Hartlepool       23   33   -4      60.79     6.87   -10.15     0.06     0.27     5.44     1.09P    7.07R    0.20  
Plymouth         26   33   -7      60.49     6.52    -7.07     0.01     0.12     3.99     0.92P    6.76R    0.20  
Brentford        24   32   -2      60.94     6.71    -3.72     0.03     0.20     5.18     1.13P    5.95R    0.21  
Carlisle         22   31   +9      65.07     7.22    10.50     0.36     1.44    17.80     5.07P    2.07R    0.04  
Exeter           24   31   -7      56.99     6.73   -14.13     0.01     0.04     1.54     0.26P   18.39R    1.11  
Notts_County     22   30   +1      63.15     7.37     1.33     0.19     0.80    11.51     2.99P    4.38R    0.16  
Leyton_Orient    22   28   -2      59.11     7.23    -4.99     0.03     0.19     4.14     0.84P   11.78R    0.65  
Swindon          24   28   -5      59.16     6.88    -3.90     0.01     0.09     3.30     0.78P   10.63R    0.49  
Tranmere         23   26  -10      51.84     6.84   -19.09     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.06P   44.82R    5.02  
Yeovil           23   26  -12      52.59     6.77   -19.48     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.06P   40.54R    4.38  
Bristol_Rovers   24   24  -18      48.82     6.71   -26.95     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   63.87R   12.55  
Dag_&_Red        23   21  -14      43.84     6.79   -28.27     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    84.81R   34.73  
Walsall          24   19  -22      43.09     6.57   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.87R   40.01  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 21 January 2011, Southend vs Bury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Chesterfield         23   48  +21      86.06     7.18    30.86    55.60    84.89    98.25    87.96P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              24   43   +8      78.37     7.00    15.81    12.27    47.77    86.06    57.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            23   41  +15      77.73     7.06    22.90    11.86    46.27    85.01    56.66P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            23   39   +8      75.49     6.92    15.30     6.52    31.62    76.19    42.00P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                24   38  +18      75.18     6.98    29.04     6.63    33.28    77.51    45.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   38  +12      72.28     6.85    18.14     2.61    18.53    61.76    30.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Bury                 24   37  +12      70.34     6.89    16.73     1.84    12.82    50.88    22.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   36   +5      69.88     7.01    10.46     1.56    10.90    46.52    20.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   35   +0      61.82     6.72    -4.65     0.07     0.93     9.89     2.51P    0.37R    0.08  
Cheltenham           24   34   +0      63.75     6.92    -0.92     0.15     1.97    16.15     4.59P    0.24R    0.03  
Torquay              23   32   +7      66.11     7.12    10.86     0.48     4.57    28.02     9.97P    0.10R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley   24   31   -2      58.92     6.86    -5.85     0.01     0.38     4.99     1.24P    1.49R    0.35  
Southend             24   30   -1      65.44     7.00     6.78     0.23     3.32    23.77     9.28P    0.14R    0.02  
Morecambe            23   30   -2      61.52     7.07    -2.34     0.06     0.92    10.18     3.00P    0.63R    0.15  
Bradford             25   30   -9      55.81     6.49   -13.33     0.01     0.06     1.50     0.28P    3.16R    0.77  
Aldershot            24   29   -7      57.50     6.71    -9.36     0.01     0.14     2.90     0.68P    2.12R    0.49  
Northampton          24   28   -8      59.27     6.90    -6.34     0.02     0.34     5.30     1.56P    1.23R    0.30  
Stevenage            22   27   +4      59.71     7.22     4.12     0.03     0.72     7.87     2.30P    1.15R    0.30  
Macclesfield         22   26   -8      53.52     7.00   -16.12     0.00     0.04     1.15     0.23P    8.26R    2.78  
Burton_Albion        21   25   +2      58.21     7.49     0.09     0.04     0.51     5.95     1.69P    2.37R    0.73  
Stockport            26   24  -30      42.95     6.03   -44.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.83R   35.12  
Barnet               25   23  -16      43.90     6.30   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    51.05R   26.41  
Hereford             23   22  -14      48.21     6.81   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   24.98R   10.42  
Lincoln_City         21   19  -15      45.31     6.95   -26.39     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   41.87R   22.03  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 January 2011, Bath_City vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Crawley_Town       23   52  +30      91.00     6.90    41.81    36.94    98.40    53.32P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   51  +19      83.93     6.37    27.30     6.48    89.40    24.15P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              25   50  +30      92.96     6.05    53.01    55.08    99.59    74.57P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     26   44  +15      73.51     6.37    18.43     0.24    36.56     7.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham            25   43  +13      76.55     6.30    20.30     0.76    56.07    13.12P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County     27   42  +10      68.63     6.33    10.82     0.03    13.41     2.05P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      27   42   +3      67.78     6.03     2.21     0.01     9.31     1.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby            25   38  +12      74.27     6.56    23.80     0.36    44.08    12.35P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          26   37   +4      68.30     6.43    10.12     0.03    12.70     2.36P    0.01R    0.00  
York               25   35   +1      67.81     6.46     7.23     0.03    10.30     2.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Darlington         24   34   +8      69.36     6.77    15.68     0.04    17.88     4.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      25   33   +5      63.67     6.53     7.98     0.01     4.06     0.87P    0.12R    0.01  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   25   33   +0      66.19     6.45     7.09     0.00     7.39     1.73P    0.04R    0.00  
Bath_City          26   31   -8      54.24     6.34   -15.20     0.00     0.07     0.01P    5.63R    0.71  
Tamworth           25   30   -6      54.69     6.28   -12.87     0.00     0.10     0.01P    4.93R    0.64  
Gateshead          24   29   -7      52.45     6.37   -18.07     0.00     0.04     0.00P   10.04R    1.72  
Kettering          25   28   -9      59.14     6.47    -5.45     0.00     0.60     0.10P    1.25R    0.14  
Barrow             25   26  -11      49.28     6.19   -20.62     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.65R    4.52  
Forest_Green       25   26  -15      48.76     6.24   -25.44     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.40R    5.63  
Southport          25   25   -6      47.66     6.36   -15.81     0.00     0.01     0.00    28.54R    7.59  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   24  -21      43.67     5.97   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.67R   21.96  
Eastbourne_Boro    25   22  -15      44.98     6.22   -25.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.66R   14.97  
Altrincham         25   22  -29      46.25     6.28   -36.56     0.00     0.00     0.00P   40.53R   13.17  
Histon             24   20  -23      42.77     6.48   -35.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.49R   28.94