Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 23 April 2010 at 21:20:15 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 April 2010, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         35   77  +54      83.73     1.74    59.50    69.71    99.79   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         35   76  +51      82.63     2.01    54.91    30.27    97.74   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         35   71  +39      77.31     2.14    42.52     0.02     2.47    98.25    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   64  +28      70.32     2.34    29.50     0.00     0.00     1.16    65.62    98.80     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   62  +27      68.00     2.62    27.53     0.00     0.00     0.59    29.61    87.86     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     35   61  +15      66.20     2.08    16.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.71    68.64     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       35   59  +24      64.46     2.23    26.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.09    44.39     0.00     0.00  
Everton         35   54   +9      59.70     2.08    11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      35   47   -8      51.04     2.06    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   43   -2      47.95     2.36    -3.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           34   43   -4      46.05     2.09    -8.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       35   43  -16      45.55     1.98   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      35   41   -7      44.61     2.19    -7.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          35   35  -25      38.77     1.99   -26.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Wigan           35   35  -33      37.67     1.79   -36.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.83R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   35   34  -23      38.09     2.23   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
West_Ham        35   31  -19      34.95     2.15   -19.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.20R    0.00  
Hull            35   28  -40      30.88     2.12   -41.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.33R    0.00  
Burnley         35   27  -37      29.14     1.92   -40.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.37R    0.00  
Portsmouth      35   15  -33      17.73     1.93   -35.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth      -9


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 April 2010, QPR vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        44   98  +54     102.45     1.62    56.67   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        44   89  +41      93.10     1.68    43.34     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     44   75  +22      78.95     1.74    23.74     0.00     0.00   100.00    32.54P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          44   73  +20      76.79     1.76    21.62     0.00     0.00   100.00    27.34P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        44   70  +13      73.10     1.84    13.51     0.00     0.00    94.78    19.49P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          44   68   +5      70.79     1.75     5.16     0.00     0.00    54.92    10.46P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        44   66  +15      69.91     1.81    16.83     0.00     0.00    50.29    10.17P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    44   61  +10      64.00     1.74    10.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Reading          44   60   +5      63.32     1.84     5.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        44   59   +2      61.74     1.80     2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     44   59  -10      61.40     1.73   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        44   56   +0      59.03     1.73     0.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          44   55   -8      56.86     1.55    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              44   54   -7      55.95     1.73    -8.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Preston          44   54  -11      56.13     1.77   -12.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            44   53  -11      55.25     1.81   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         44   53  -13      55.43     1.72   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         44   53  -15      54.99     1.60   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       44   51  -21      52.80     1.69   -22.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          44   48  -14      50.50     1.84   -14.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.16R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   44   47   -3      49.38     1.79    -3.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.82R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        44   46  -19      47.97     1.63   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.03R    0.00  
Plymouth         44   41  -21      43.34     1.62   -21.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     44   31  -34      32.93     1.73   -35.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Crystal_Palace   -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 April 2010, Brentford vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          43   89  +39      95.46     2.06    42.90    99.96   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     43   80  +30      85.65     2.13    32.47     0.04    47.45   100.00    65.05P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         43   79  +32      85.24     2.12    35.17     0.00    44.70   100.00    64.52P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          43   78  +16      82.20     2.20    16.08     0.00     5.20   100.00    23.75P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         43   77  +20      81.60     2.26    20.71     0.00     2.61    99.77    24.71P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     43   74  +20      79.47     2.23    22.08     0.00     0.04    94.61    20.64P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       43   68  +12      73.25     2.12    13.70     0.00     0.00     3.63     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      43   67  +36      73.54     2.03    39.94     0.00     0.00     2.00     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   43   62   -6      64.64     2.08    -8.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford        43   60   +4      64.52     2.19     4.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          43   59   -4      62.41     2.12    -5.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          43   55   -6      59.48     2.29    -5.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         43   54   -4      56.71     1.94    -6.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brighton         43   52   -6      56.44     2.26    -5.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       43   51   -6      54.79     2.20    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           43   51  -13      54.75     2.15   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           43   49   -6      52.74     2.16    -6.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    43   48  -10      51.10     1.98   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.15R    0.00  
Gillingham       43   47  -12      49.53     1.99   -14.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.17R    0.00  
Exeter           43   46  -13      49.26     2.19   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.25R    0.00  
Tranmere         43   44  -32      46.57     1.96   -34.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.25R    0.00  
Wycombe          43   41  -21      44.75     2.24   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.91R    0.00  
Southend         43   39  -20      42.54     1.96   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.14R    0.00  
Stockport        43   25  -50      27.82     2.04   -52.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 April 2010, Cheltenham vs Darlington; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Notts_County         42   86  +56      94.81     2.27    61.32    98.95   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             43   82  +37      88.06     2.16    40.07     1.05   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          43   77  +12      81.23     2.28    12.22     0.00    98.90   100.00    99.20P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            43   69   +5      73.71     2.28     5.90     0.00     1.07    92.39    23.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 43   68   -1      72.01     2.24    -1.14     0.00     0.02    71.31    14.12P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            43   66  +11      70.83     2.26    12.03     0.00     0.00    62.93    18.46P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            43   66   +9      71.22     2.22    10.63     0.00     0.00    67.35    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         43   66   +0      70.39     2.30     0.40     0.00     0.00    45.99     9.64P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            43   64  +14      67.82     2.15    13.69     0.00     0.00    17.19     5.37P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            43   64   +6      68.24     2.32     6.18     0.00     0.00    21.95     5.81P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          43   63   +9      67.73     2.29     9.89     0.00     0.00    17.64     5.06P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           43   62   +4      65.67     2.19     3.47     0.00     0.00     3.24     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        43   56   -2      59.94     2.13    -2.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford             43   55   -6      58.57     2.27    -6.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   42   54  -11      59.39     2.69   -11.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         43   53   -6      57.63     2.15    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford             43   53  -14      55.92     2.11   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crewe                43   51   -8      55.29     2.29    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Torquay              43   50   +5      53.72     2.17     4.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           43   47  -11      50.17     2.04   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         43   46  -22      49.22     2.12   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64R    0.00  
Barnet               42   45  -13      49.55     2.56   -14.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.89R    0.00  
Grimsby              43   38  -27      41.66     2.20   -27.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.47R    0.01  
Darlington           42   27  -47      29.85     2.12   -51.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.99  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 April 2010, AFC_Wimbledon vs Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          43   96  +54      97.91     1.22    54.72   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              43   87  +44      88.17     1.28    43.70     0.00   100.00    27.95P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         43   86  +34      88.11     1.18    35.04     0.00   100.00    28.98P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   43   78  +38      79.57     1.32    38.30     0.00   100.00    23.33P    0.00     0.00  
York               43   78  +28      78.79     1.07    27.28     0.00   100.00    19.74P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          43   66  +12      67.44     1.29    12.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       44   66   -7      66.00     0.00    -7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      43   64  +15      65.73     1.30    15.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          43   61   +9      62.67     1.31     9.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      43   56  +10      57.20     1.28     9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      43   56   +5      57.08     1.26     4.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            43   55   +5      56.52     1.31     5.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury          43   55   -7      56.27     1.27    -7.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         43   54   +4      55.54     1.31     4.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow             43   51  -17      52.24     1.28   -17.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           43   49   -9      50.86     1.26    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    43   48  -25      49.21     1.28   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Histon             43   45  -23      46.49     1.31   -22.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77R    0.00  
Forest_Green       43   45  -25      46.64     1.32   -24.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.05R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    43   43  -31      43.65     1.02   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.11R    0.00  
Gateshead          43   42  -24      43.01     1.23   -24.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.83R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   43   41  -33      41.88     1.16   -33.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.24R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     43   25  -57      26.12     1.28   -57.40     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Gateshead          -1