Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 9 April 2010 at 21:20:00 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 April 2010, Birmingham vs Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         33   74  +54      85.03     2.30    63.42    76.40    95.54   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         33   72  +50      82.14     2.79    55.11    17.00    67.51    99.87   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         33   71  +41      80.97     2.78    46.15     6.60    36.95    99.67   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        32   59  +24      68.24     3.25    25.21     0.00     0.01     0.38    47.44    89.28     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       32   58  +26      67.31     3.08    27.89     0.00     0.00     0.08    35.80    88.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       33   55  +21      64.95     2.80    25.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.84    68.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   54  +12      64.59     3.16    15.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.91    51.95     0.00     0.00  
Everton         33   50   +8      57.91     2.79     9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.77     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      33   46   -4      53.19     2.65    -3.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           32   42   -3      48.42     2.81    -6.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   42  -15      46.49     2.65   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          32   41   -2      48.51     2.91    -3.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      33   38   -7      45.13     2.88    -6.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   33   32  -23      38.20     2.83   -23.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.93R    0.00  
Bolton          33   32  -25      36.42     2.36   -30.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.93R    0.00  
Wigan           33   31  -34      35.76     2.47   -39.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.66R    0.00  
West_Ham        33   28  -17      34.15     2.75   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.15R    0.00  
Hull            32   27  -35      33.54     3.08   -37.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.50R    0.01  
Burnley         33   24  -39      27.33     2.45   -45.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.83R    1.02  
Portsmouth      33   14  -32      18.75     2.65   -35.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.97  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth      -9


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 April 2010, Barnsley vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        41   89  +48      99.58     2.74    53.71    99.24   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        42   83  +38      90.63     2.54    41.46     0.76    99.99   100.00    99.99P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     42   72  +21      79.24     2.52    23.50     0.00     0.01    99.99    33.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          42   69  +19      76.31     2.61    21.87     0.00     0.00    99.58    26.87P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          42   65   +4      70.84     2.52     4.65     0.00     0.00    72.66    13.47P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        42   64   +9      70.61     2.63    10.63     0.00     0.00    72.58    14.58P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        42   63  +16      68.81     2.50    16.37     0.00     0.00    48.42    10.46P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    42   58  +11      63.90     2.46    11.57     0.00     0.00     3.37     0.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     42   56   -8      61.13     2.57    -8.65     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        42   55   +1      60.95     2.60     1.73     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        42   55   +1      60.43     2.53     1.14     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          40   55   +0      63.30     3.19    -0.01     0.00     0.00     2.95     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          42   54   -5      58.15     2.34    -7.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         42   52  -12      56.93     2.53   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Barnsley         42   52  -13      56.59     2.43   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Derby            42   51  -11      55.83     2.60   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Preston          42   50  -12      55.23     2.60   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59R    0.00  
QPR              41   48   -9      53.85     2.88   -10.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.60R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       41   47  -23      52.52     2.89   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.69R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   42   46   -1      51.46     2.61    -0.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.57R    0.00  
Watford          41   45  -11      51.28     2.90   -11.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.33R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        42   45  -18      48.97     2.40   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.64R    0.00  
Plymouth         42   41  -18      44.95     2.33   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.32R    0.38  
Peterborough     42   31  -27      34.82     2.46   -29.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.62  

Adjustments:
Crystal_Palace   -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 April 2010, Huddersfield vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          40   85  +39      96.97     3.09    45.24    98.47    99.80   100.00    99.86P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          40   76  +19      85.91     3.15    21.53     0.37    28.12    99.82    43.82P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         40   75  +29      86.29     3.13    33.56     0.77    40.58    99.90    59.18P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     40   74  +27      85.21     3.13    31.59     0.31    24.03    99.77    47.89P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         40   74  +21      82.74     3.28    21.65     0.07     7.07    97.20    26.24P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     40   68  +21      78.45     3.24    24.37     0.00     0.40    80.85    18.10P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       40   65  +12      74.20     3.17    13.45     0.00     0.00    18.14     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   40   61   -1      67.86     3.18    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      39   57  +30      70.84     3.39    36.67     0.00     0.00     3.95     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          40   57   -3      64.93     3.03    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford        39   52   +0      62.29     3.47     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         40   51   -2      57.92     3.05    -4.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          40   51   -6      58.80     3.11    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brighton         40   48   -6      56.51     3.30    -5.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Yeovil           40   45   -7      52.53     3.17    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.33R    0.00  
Hartlepool       40   45   -9      53.72     3.22    -8.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.13R    0.00  
Exeter           40   44  -11      51.02     3.16   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.73R    0.00  
Gillingham       40   43   -9      48.82     2.96   -12.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.76R    0.00  
Oldham           39   43  -15      50.11     3.24   -18.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.31R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    40   41  -13      48.22     2.97   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.09R    0.00  
Tranmere         39   41  -29      47.83     3.20   -33.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.77R    0.00  
Southend         40   38  -17      44.98     2.96   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.87R    0.03  
Wycombe          40   32  -27      38.64     3.16   -29.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.92R    1.93  
Stockport        40   25  -43      30.30     2.91   -47.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.04  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 April 2010, Accrington_Stanley vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             39   79  +43      93.11     3.19    50.79    58.56   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         38   74  +49      91.43     3.36    59.36    41.43    99.98   100.00    99.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          40   71  +10      81.25     3.16    12.99     0.01    83.78    99.88    87.88P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            40   65   +6      74.26     3.31     7.51     0.00     5.72    80.16    23.57P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            40   64  +13      73.97     3.28    15.66     0.00     5.06    81.53    28.08P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         40   64   +2      72.91     3.32     3.03     0.00     3.03    66.57    16.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 40   64   -1      72.55     3.28    -0.46     0.00     1.39    60.63    13.00P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          40   63  +12      70.70     3.17    11.08     0.00     0.72    44.42    12.96P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            40   61   +9      68.89     3.24     8.19     0.00     0.16    25.26     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            40   59  +13      67.21     3.20    13.12     0.00     0.06    13.59     4.21P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            40   59   +5      68.94     3.28     7.51     0.00     0.09    25.30     6.25P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           40   55   +0      63.39     3.22     0.23     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        40   54   -1      61.87     3.16    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   39   53   -9      63.38     3.61    -7.98     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                40   50   -2      58.10     3.27    -2.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford             40   50  -13      56.38     3.07   -15.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford             40   48   -9      55.24     3.29   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         40   46   -9      54.85     3.23    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               39   45   -8      53.17     3.48   -10.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         40   43  -20      48.31     2.82   -24.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.68R    0.00  
Torquay              40   41   -5      47.44     3.09    -7.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.01R    0.00  
Cheltenham           39   41  -14      49.21     3.28   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.41R    0.00  
Grimsby              40   34  -25      41.17     3.21   -26.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.76R    0.07  
Darlington           38   22  -46      26.81     2.90   -56.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 8 April 2010, Barrow vs Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          39   84  +48      94.38     2.67    53.55    92.10   100.00    94.97P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              40   82  +41      89.53     2.46    44.14     7.56   100.00    33.68P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         39   76  +30      85.60     2.84    33.93     0.34   100.00    25.27P    0.00     0.00  
York               40   74  +27      81.86     2.20    30.99     0.00   100.00    22.85P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   40   72  +36      79.29     2.50    39.11     0.00    99.98    23.23P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          41   62   +8      67.38     2.19     9.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      40   61  +17      68.67     2.43    20.63     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       39   59   -6      65.61     2.92    -6.26     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          40   58  +11      62.96     2.59    10.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         39   53   +9      58.76     2.80     7.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      40   52   +8      57.44     2.53     8.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      39   52   +6      58.98     2.92     6.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            40   52   +5      57.44     2.49     5.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    39   46  -20      51.98     2.93   -21.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Tamworth           40   45   -8      49.56     2.41    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Histon             40   45  -17      49.57     2.47   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Barrow             38   44  -17      50.48     3.10   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Salisbury          39   43  -14      49.74     3.01   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Gateshead          40   42  -19      46.06     2.46   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.13R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    41   40  -29      42.00     1.82   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.22R    0.00  
Forest_Green       40   39  -26      43.85     2.42   -27.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.34R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   41   38  -33      40.65     1.95   -35.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.75R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     40   21  -57      23.28     1.93   -63.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Gateshead          -1