Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 5 April 2010 at 21:20:04 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 April 2010, Birmingham vs Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         33   74  +54      85.06     2.31    63.49    76.20    95.41   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         33   72  +50      82.20     2.76    55.22    17.31    68.03    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         33   71  +41      80.97     2.78    46.14     6.49    36.54    99.66   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        32   59  +24      68.24     3.26    25.22     0.00     0.01     0.33    47.31    89.35     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       32   58  +26      67.30     3.07    27.87     0.00     0.00     0.10    35.84    88.44     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       33   55  +21      64.93     2.80    25.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.99    68.77     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   54  +12      64.55     3.15    15.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.85    51.60     0.00     0.00  
Everton         33   50   +8      57.93     2.79     9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.83     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      33   46   -4      53.16     2.66    -3.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           32   42   -3      48.40     2.81    -6.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   42  -15      46.47     2.64   -18.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          32   41   -2      48.48     2.93    -3.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      33   38   -7      45.16     2.88    -6.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   33   32  -23      38.22     2.82   -23.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.91R    0.00  
Bolton          33   32  -25      36.42     2.36   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.05R    0.00  
Wigan           33   31  -34      35.77     2.47   -39.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.96R    0.00  
West_Ham        33   28  -17      34.15     2.75   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.23R    0.00  
Hull            32   27  -35      33.57     3.09   -37.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.01R    0.00  
Burnley         33   24  -39      27.32     2.46   -45.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.83R    1.16  
Portsmouth      33   14  -32      18.75     2.65   -35.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.84  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth      -9


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 April 2010, Barnsley vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        41   89  +48      99.55     2.76    53.64    99.23   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        42   83  +38      90.61     2.51    41.43     0.77    99.97   100.00    99.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     42   72  +21      79.28     2.51    23.54     0.00     0.03    99.99    34.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          42   69  +19      76.31     2.61    21.88     0.00     0.00    99.58    26.52P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          42   65   +4      70.82     2.50     4.60     0.00     0.00    72.54    13.23P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        42   64   +9      70.61     2.64    10.64     0.00     0.00    72.59    14.44P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        42   63  +16      68.80     2.51    16.36     0.00     0.00    48.13    10.40P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    42   58  +11      63.90     2.45    11.56     0.00     0.00     3.55     0.77P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     42   56   -8      61.15     2.56    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        42   55   +1      60.96     2.60     1.74     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        42   55   +1      60.41     2.54     1.12     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          40   55   +0      63.33     3.20     0.06     0.00     0.00     3.14     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          42   54   -5      58.16     2.33    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         42   52  -12      56.95     2.53   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Barnsley         42   52  -13      56.64     2.42   -14.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Derby            42   51  -11      55.79     2.61   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Preston          42   50  -12      55.22     2.59   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62R    0.00  
QPR              41   48   -9      53.85     2.91   -10.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.70R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       41   47  -23      52.47     2.86   -25.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.87R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   42   46   -1      51.47     2.61    -0.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.41R    0.00  
Watford          41   45  -11      51.31     2.92   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        42   45  -18      48.97     2.40   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.66R    0.00  
Plymouth         42   41  -18      44.94     2.33   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.35R    0.43  
Peterborough     42   31  -27      34.81     2.45   -29.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.57  

Adjustments:
Crystal_Palace   -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 April 2010, Brentford vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          40   85  +39      96.98     3.07    45.25    98.63    99.80   100.00    99.87P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          40   76  +19      85.92     3.18    21.54     0.33    28.10    99.79    43.96P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         40   75  +29      86.30     3.13    33.57     0.72    40.93    99.95    59.35P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     40   74  +27      85.22     3.12    31.62     0.25    24.10    99.84    47.56P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         40   74  +21      82.69     3.26    21.59     0.06     6.76    97.45    26.30P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     39   65  +19      77.50     3.49    23.40     0.00     0.30    73.64    16.58P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       40   65  +12      74.21     3.18    13.49     0.00     0.00    23.12     4.47P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   40   61   -1      67.81     3.17    -3.31     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      39   57  +30      70.86     3.39    36.70     0.00     0.00     5.74     1.86P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          40   57   -3      64.86     3.02    -4.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford        39   52   +0      62.25     3.47     0.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         40   51   -2      57.86     3.02    -4.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          40   51   -6      58.82     3.11    -6.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brighton         40   48   -6      56.56     3.30    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Yeovil           40   45   -7      52.54     3.17    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.41R    0.00  
Hartlepool       40   45   -9      53.72     3.21    -8.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.25R    0.00  
Exeter           40   44  -11      51.01     3.14   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.02R    0.00  
Gillingham       40   43   -9      48.80     2.94   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.57R    0.00  
Oldham           38   43  -13      50.88     3.48   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.41R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    40   41  -13      48.19     2.97   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.10R    0.00  
Tranmere         39   41  -29      47.84     3.22   -33.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.41R    0.00  
Southend         40   38  -17      44.95     2.97   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.86R    0.02  
Wycombe          40   32  -27      38.71     3.19   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.86R    1.97  
Stockport        40   25  -43      30.33     2.92   -47.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.00  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 April 2010, Accrington_Stanley vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             39   79  +43      93.06     3.21    50.73    58.08   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         38   74  +49      91.44     3.35    59.34    41.92    99.99   100.00    99.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          40   71  +10      81.23     3.17    12.96     0.01    83.79    99.90    88.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            40   65   +6      74.19     3.33     7.44     0.00     5.36    79.52    23.10P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            40   64  +13      73.96     3.27    15.66     0.00     5.20    81.68    27.98P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         40   64   +2      72.89     3.33     2.98     0.00     3.17    66.54    16.40P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 40   64   -1      72.51     3.29    -0.51     0.00     1.39    60.13    13.10P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          40   63  +12      70.74     3.17    11.15     0.00     0.73    44.89    13.14P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            40   61   +9      68.91     3.24     8.21     0.00     0.19    25.52     6.64P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            40   59  +13      67.22     3.20    13.14     0.00     0.07    13.69     4.43P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            40   59   +5      68.93     3.27     7.52     0.00     0.11    25.32     6.55P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           40   55   +0      63.35     3.22     0.19     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        40   54   -1      61.90     3.17    -1.98     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   39   53   -9      63.47     3.64    -7.83     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                40   50   -2      58.13     3.31    -2.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford             40   50  -13      56.39     3.08   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford             40   48   -9      55.19     3.28   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         40   46   -9      54.84     3.23    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               39   45   -8      53.21     3.47   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         40   43  -20      48.32     2.84   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.63R    0.00  
Torquay              40   41   -5      47.47     3.08    -7.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.75R    0.00  
Cheltenham           39   41  -14      49.24     3.29   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.32R    0.00  
Grimsby              40   34  -25      41.15     3.20   -26.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.13R    0.08  
Darlington           38   22  -46      26.82     2.91   -56.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.92  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 April 2010, AFC_Wimbledon vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          39   84  +48      94.48     2.67    53.65    92.39   100.00    95.20P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              40   82  +41      89.56     2.44    44.20     7.24   100.00    34.74P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         39   76  +30      85.58     2.84    33.86     0.37   100.00    26.12P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   40   72  +36      79.28     2.51    39.08     0.00    99.67    23.95P    0.00     0.00  
York               39   71  +22      80.24     2.59    25.87     0.00    99.16    19.77P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          41   62   +8      67.41     2.19     9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      39   61  +22      69.99     2.73    25.66     0.00     1.16     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       39   59   -6      65.62     2.92    -6.22     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          40   58  +11      62.85     2.57    10.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         39   53   +9      58.73     2.82     7.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      40   52   +8      57.43     2.53     8.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      38   52   +7      60.70     3.28     7.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            40   52   +5      57.45     2.48     5.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    39   46  -20      52.01     2.92   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           40   45   -8      49.53     2.40    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Histon             40   45  -17      49.58     2.45   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Salisbury          39   43  -14      49.72     3.04   -14.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Gateshead          40   42  -19      45.94     2.43   -21.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.34R    0.00  
Barrow             37   41  -18      48.60     3.42   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.23R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    41   40  -29      42.05     1.82   -31.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.57R    0.00  
Forest_Green       40   39  -26      43.84     2.42   -27.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.19R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   41   38  -33      40.64     1.95   -35.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.26R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     40   21  -57      23.29     1.94   -62.86     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Gateshead          -1