Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 22 March 2010 at 22:19:26 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 21 March 2010, Blackburn vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         31   69  +47      83.40     3.36    54.58    57.39    83.09    99.58    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         31   67  +40      81.36     3.21    48.36    22.27    63.55    98.68    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   65  +42      80.58     3.24    51.21    20.32    53.09    98.57    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       30   55  +26      68.81     3.59    30.95     0.01     0.14     1.50    43.33    91.04     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        29   53  +18      68.46     3.95    23.10     0.01     0.12     1.39    36.68    84.04     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       31   51  +18      64.49     3.41    24.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     5.54    54.44     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   50  +17      66.00     3.88    22.25     0.00     0.01     0.27    14.61    67.08     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   45   +6      57.16     3.62     7.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     2.70     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   44   -3      54.65     3.59    -3.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   38   -1      49.64     3.51    -0.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           30   36   -6      45.39     3.41    -8.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   35  -17      43.08     3.58   -21.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Sunderland      30   34   -6      43.15     3.55    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Bolton          31   32  -20      38.17     2.94   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.58R    0.00  
Wigan           31   31  -30      36.60     2.79   -38.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.88R    0.01  
Wolverhampton   30   28  -24      35.97     3.44   -29.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.46R    0.03  
West_Ham        30   27  -14      37.81     3.59   -14.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.72R    0.01  
Burnley         31   24  -33      30.11     3.21   -38.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.03R    2.31  
Hull            30   24  -35      32.18     3.56   -39.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.07R    0.94  
Portsmouth      30   13  -25      20.50     3.37   -31.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   96.71  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth      -9


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 21 March 2010, Cardiff vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        37   77  +43      95.79     3.79    52.79    86.29    99.72   100.00    99.83P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        38   75  +34      90.30     3.73    41.00    13.63    96.97   100.00    97.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     38   67  +21      80.72     3.69    24.97     0.08     3.07    99.95    35.44P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        37   61  +11      74.81     4.04    13.13     0.00     0.19    94.37    21.20P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          38   61   +6      72.94     3.65     7.62     0.00     0.01    88.16    19.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          37   58  +16      72.77     4.07    19.85     0.00     0.04    88.52    21.32P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        38   53   +3      64.31     3.66     3.35     0.00     0.00     9.96     1.62P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        38   52   +4      62.90     3.70     4.16     0.00     0.00     5.10     0.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        38   51   +6      62.53     3.72     6.69     0.00     0.00     4.48     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         38   51   -7      61.28     3.70    -8.39     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    38   50   +7      62.19     3.72     8.71     0.00     0.00     3.69     0.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         37   49  -10      60.20     3.92   -12.04     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.16P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading          36   48   -3      60.58     4.29    -4.97     0.00     0.00     2.49     0.38P    0.12R    0.00  
Preston          38   48   -8      58.70     3.80    -8.37     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P    0.28R    0.00  
Ipswich          38   47   -6      56.53     3.55    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.66R    0.00  
Bristol_City     38   46  -12      56.12     3.79   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.93R    0.00  
QPR              37   45   -5      56.86     4.04    -5.75     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    1.39R    0.00  
Derby            38   44  -11      53.67     3.79   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.99R    0.02  
Watford          36   42   -8      54.72     4.31    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P    5.70R    0.04  
Scunthorpe       37   41  -23      50.71     3.87   -27.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.89R    0.53  
Sheff_Wed        38   40  -18      48.77     3.65   -21.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.18R    0.94  
Crystal_Palace   37   39   -2      50.21     4.03    -3.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.04R    0.32  
Plymouth         37   34  -17      43.47     3.80   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.56R   18.22  
Peterborough     38   30  -21      38.21     3.65   -25.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.18R   79.92  

Adjustments:
Crystal_Palace   -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 March 2010, Leeds_United vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          37   79  +39      98.01     3.72    50.65    96.30    99.65   100.00    99.78P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     37   71  +30      87.34     3.96    36.08     3.20    59.64    99.50    73.48P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         37   68  +23      84.87     3.85    29.94     0.39    25.65    97.70    48.48P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         37   67  +19      79.73     4.11    19.41     0.04     3.87    75.89    18.87P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          37   67  +12      80.86     3.95    14.25     0.03     5.58    84.45    19.94P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   63  +15      80.29     4.23    20.40     0.04     4.68    79.41    22.78P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     37   61  +18      77.02     4.09    23.56     0.00     0.92    55.05    14.13P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          37   56   -1      67.62     3.90    -2.73     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   37   55   -1      66.58     4.00    -2.30     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      36   50  +28      70.49     4.08    38.66     0.00     0.00     6.50     2.33P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         38   48   -3      56.85     3.56    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -3      61.83     4.29    -1.45     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Yeovil           38   44   -6      53.97     3.74    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39R    0.00  
Brighton         37   44   -7      56.60     4.11    -6.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60R    0.00  
Brentford        34   43   -2      59.52     4.69    -1.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.22R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    37   41   -9      51.53     3.77   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.52R    0.00  
Oldham           36   40  -13      50.64     4.02   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.77R    0.00  
Hartlepool       36   39  -11      51.72     4.20   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.99R    0.00  
Gillingham       37   39  -11      48.88     3.82   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.78R    0.01  
Tranmere         36   38  -25      46.77     3.79   -32.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.38R    0.10  
Exeter           37   37  -14      47.25     3.94   -16.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.77R    0.01  
Southend         36   34  -16      45.61     4.06   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.13R    0.25  
Wycombe          37   31  -25      39.92     3.83   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.38R    3.38  
Stockport        37   24  -37      30.97     3.44   -46.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   96.25  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 March 2010, Accrington_Stanley vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             36   75  +42      96.00     3.89    54.64    83.54    99.99   100.00    99.99P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         34   64  +42      89.38     4.42    56.27    16.41    98.91    99.98    99.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          37   64   +7      78.40     3.96    10.07     0.04    43.07    94.18    55.94P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            36   62   +9      76.81     4.33    10.53     0.01    29.10    86.85    43.70P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         37   61   +3      74.21     4.13     4.24     0.00    11.29    69.84    24.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   61   +2      73.35     4.08     2.01     0.00     6.67    61.29    18.45P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          37   58  +11      70.81     4.01    11.46     0.00     2.98    42.48    13.90P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   55   +5      69.31     4.09     7.98     0.00     1.12    28.76     8.50P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   55   +4      68.65     3.98     6.08     0.00     0.71    22.13     6.49P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            36   54   +8      70.30     4.35    11.99     0.00     2.82    39.14    13.28P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            37   53  +11      65.66     4.10    11.65     0.00     0.26     9.82     3.21P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   53   -2      70.13     4.65     1.07     0.00     2.97    34.80    10.09P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            37   52   +4      64.58     4.12     4.07     0.00     0.06     5.36     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        36   50   +1      64.40     4.22     1.81     0.00     0.07     5.04     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                37   47   -1      58.80     4.10    -2.03     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford             36   46   -7      57.77     4.29   -10.28     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         37   42  -17      50.84     3.76   -22.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.87R    0.00  
Barnet               36   41   -9      52.85     4.28   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.50R    0.00  
Hereford             37   41  -16      51.06     3.83   -19.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.16R    0.00  
Macclesfield         36   39   -9      52.79     4.32    -8.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49R    0.00  
Torquay              37   37   -4      46.73     3.95    -8.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.94R    0.00  
Cheltenham           36   35  -15      46.58     4.09   -18.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.45R    0.00  
Grimsby              37   31  -22      40.23     3.76   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.59R    0.05  
Darlington           34   16  -47      22.43     3.50   -65.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 21 March 2010, Tamworth vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          34   72  +41      91.88     4.02    50.67    73.71    99.98    83.15P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              36   70  +22      84.71     3.46    28.35     4.41    98.96    23.55P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         34   69  +30      87.89     4.08    37.99    21.68    99.72    45.09P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   35   63  +32      78.00     4.01    36.44     0.15    74.26    19.03P    0.00     0.00  
York               35   61  +16      77.06     3.77    21.64     0.03    62.62    13.04P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          37   59  +11      71.71     3.47    15.40     0.00    10.22     2.00P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      34   57  +26      75.73     4.07    34.03     0.02    52.13    13.78P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          36   56  +13      66.19     3.81    11.78     0.00     1.01     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       36   55   -4      64.86     3.67    -5.67     0.00     0.21     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         35   49  +10      60.49     4.01     9.10     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      33   48   +9      64.39     4.67    11.12     0.00     0.87     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            35   44   +2      56.08     3.97     1.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      35   43   +5      56.89     3.99     7.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    36   43  -12      51.67     3.70   -16.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Histon             36   43  -12      51.79     3.60   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Tamworth           36   38  -10      46.79     3.50   -12.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.19R    0.00  
Salisbury          34   37  -10      49.52     4.25   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39R    0.00  
Gateshead          35   35  -20      43.42     3.73   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.83R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   35  -32      40.30     2.72   -34.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.69R    0.01  
Barrow             32   34  -17      47.47     4.66   -21.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.40R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    37   34  -29      40.96     3.24   -32.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.69R    0.01  
Forest_Green       35   30  -28      40.38     3.94   -31.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.75R    0.14  
Grays_Athletic     35   20  -43      24.81     2.94   -56.82     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.84  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Gateshead          -1