Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 18 March 2010 at 22:19:39 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 March 2010, Wigan vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         30   66  +46      82.57     3.62    54.81    46.10    75.57    99.32    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         29   64  +42      81.70     3.54    52.55    32.52    65.75    99.10    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   64  +38      81.05     3.32    49.35    21.36    58.46    98.83    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       29   52  +25      67.34     3.87    30.16     0.01     0.08     1.02    31.96    82.57     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   51  +19      64.96     3.60    23.62     0.00     0.00     0.08    10.11    61.14     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        28   50  +17      66.35     4.25    21.34     0.00     0.07     0.71    23.39    68.95     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   49  +17      67.93     4.01    24.61     0.01     0.07     0.93    34.67    82.73     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   44   -1      55.95     3.86    -1.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.07     0.00     0.00  
Everton         29   42   +4      56.48     3.84     7.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.46     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          29   38   +0      51.39     3.80     1.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           29   36   -5      46.70     3.70    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   34  -17      42.69     3.78   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Bolton          30   32  -18      38.62     3.11   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.70R    0.05  
Sunderland      29   31   -8      41.54     3.82   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32R    0.01  
Wigan           30   28  -31      35.39     3.17   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.81R    3.60  
West_Ham        29   27  -12      38.08     3.67   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.97R    0.30  
Wolverhampton   29   27  -24      35.00     3.48   -31.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.42R    3.14  
Burnley         30   24  -32      31.38     3.55   -38.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.93R   21.13  
Hull            29   24  -34      32.94     3.79   -38.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.76R   14.56  
Portsmouth      29   19  -26      28.17     3.66   -31.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.70R   57.20  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 March 2010, Newcastle vs Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        36   76  +43      97.02     4.04    54.08    90.92    99.85   100.00    99.90P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        37   72  +33      89.62     3.95    41.58     9.02    95.49   100.00    96.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     37   64  +20      80.06     3.90    25.43     0.06     3.56    99.72    35.21P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        36   60  +11      76.05     4.32    14.34     0.00     0.98    94.82    23.76P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          37   60   +6      73.20     3.90     7.56     0.00     0.07    84.86    18.24P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          36   55  +14      71.72     4.30    18.80     0.00     0.05    78.28    18.34P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        37   52   +3      64.35     3.93     2.84     0.00     0.00    10.79     1.89P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        37   51   +4      63.61     4.00     4.65     0.00     0.00     7.99     1.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        37   50   +6      63.33     4.00     7.32     0.00     0.00     7.05     1.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         37   50   -7      60.91     3.90    -9.43     0.00     0.00     1.62     0.23P    0.12R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    37   49   +7      63.16     4.00     9.62     0.00     0.00     6.48     1.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         36   49   -9      61.43     4.22   -11.26     0.00     0.00     2.76     0.37P    0.10R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   48   -2      59.89     4.24    -4.25     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.28P    0.25R    0.00  
Preston          37   48   -7      59.11     3.95    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.07P    0.37R    0.00  
Reading          35   47   -3      60.46     4.54    -5.75     0.00     0.00     2.80     0.47P    0.37R    0.00  
Bristol_City     37   45  -12      55.75     3.97   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    4.27R    0.01  
QPR              36   44   -5      57.12     4.25    -5.85     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P    2.13R    0.00  
Ipswich          37   44   -7      55.11     3.84    -8.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.01R    0.01  
Derby            37   43  -11      53.97     4.07   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     8.93R    0.03  
Watford          35   42   -6      55.53     4.55    -8.72     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    5.74R    0.05  
Sheff_Wed        37   39  -18      49.44     3.97   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.83R    1.34  
Scunthorpe       36   38  -24      49.33     4.18   -27.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.31R    2.67  
Plymouth         36   34  -16      44.66     4.10   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.66R   15.21  
Peterborough     37   30  -20      38.62     3.80   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.89R   80.66  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 March 2010, Exeter vs Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          36   78  +39      98.45     4.03    50.85    92.64    99.54   100.00    99.71P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     36   71  +32      89.35     4.17    39.03     6.94    74.87    99.84    83.65P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         36   66  +19      80.89     4.36    20.62     0.12     4.94    84.94    22.86P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   66  +12      81.09     4.20    14.03     0.11     4.90    86.81    20.15P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   65  +21      82.40     4.11    26.73     0.10     8.83    92.55    33.99P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   63  +16      81.89     4.48    21.83     0.10     6.66    88.56    27.71P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     36   58  +16      75.31     4.39    21.43     0.00     0.25    40.02     9.99P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          36   56   +2      69.18     4.19     0.55     0.00     0.00     3.36     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   36   52   -4      64.12     4.25    -6.59     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      35   47  +25      68.56     4.42    35.14     0.00     0.00     3.65     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   47   -3      57.25     3.85    -7.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Yeovil           37   44   -3      56.09     4.05    -3.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59R    0.00  
Walsall          35   44   -4      59.96     4.56    -2.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.16R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   41   -7      53.13     4.06    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.72R    0.00  
Brighton         36   41   -9      54.62     4.32    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.32R    0.00  
Brentford        33   40   -3      57.97     4.96    -2.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.98R    0.00  
Oldham           35   40  -11      52.56     4.31   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.55R    0.00  
Hartlepool       35   38  -11      52.32     4.48   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.98R    0.01  
Gillingham       36   38  -11      48.33     3.96   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.45R    0.02  
Tranmere         35   37  -25      47.25     4.11   -32.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.04R    0.25  
Exeter           36   36  -14      47.41     4.23   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.72R    0.09  
Southend         35   33  -16      46.25     4.33   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.57R    0.48  
Wycombe          36   30  -25      40.34     4.10   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.77R    5.55  
Stockport        36   24  -36      32.05     3.69   -46.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   93.59  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 March 2010, Accrington_Stanley vs Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             35   72  +40      94.78     4.18    52.99    80.89    99.95   100.00    99.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          36   64   +8      80.34     4.18    11.83     0.39    58.48    97.29    68.30P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         33   61  +41      88.39     4.68    56.50    18.68    97.17    99.94    98.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 36   61   +3      74.62     4.34     2.90     0.01     9.84    70.76    23.05P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         36   60   +3      74.26     4.38     3.75     0.01     9.54    68.56    22.30P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   59   +8      75.33     4.60     9.73     0.02    15.85    76.49    31.42P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          36   55   +9      69.31     4.32     9.60     0.00     1.24    29.81     9.26P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           36   55   +6      70.13     4.29     8.26     0.00     1.48    35.07    10.53P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   53   +0      71.29     4.87     2.66     0.00     4.32    43.78    13.12P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            36   52  +11      66.26     4.39    11.97     0.00     0.34    13.14     4.44P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   52   +6      65.92     4.39     5.94     0.00     0.19    10.81     3.08P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            36   52   +3      67.84     4.39     6.14     0.00     0.43    19.40     5.62P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            35   51   +6      68.61     4.64     9.88     0.00     1.05    26.48     8.36P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   49   +1      64.96     4.52     2.14     0.00     0.13     7.43     1.89P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                36   47   +0      59.38     4.35    -2.48     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             35   46   -5      59.40     4.60    -7.90     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         35   39   -7      54.21     4.55    -6.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         36   39  -18      48.30     3.93   -24.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.35R    0.00  
Barnet               35   38  -10      51.67     4.51   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62R    0.00  
Hereford             36   38  -18      49.25     4.08   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.02R    0.00  
Torquay              36   37   -3      48.79     4.20    -6.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.97R    0.00  
Cheltenham           35   34  -15      46.63     4.33   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.53R    0.00  
Grimsby              36   28  -23      37.88     3.97   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.43R    0.58  
Darlington           33   16  -46      23.31     3.77   -64.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.42  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 March 2010, Altrincham vs Kettering; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          36   78  +44      98.05     3.96    53.92    73.34    99.99    83.85P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         34   71  +34      94.36     4.47    44.68    26.13    99.87    51.16P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              37   69  +17      84.73     3.80    22.47     0.18    87.21    15.27P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   35   65  +33      83.96     4.45    39.29     0.32    82.05    22.56P    0.00     0.00  
York               36   64  +17      82.15     4.00    23.76     0.04    69.04    13.77P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          37   59  +13      70.43     4.03    11.53     0.00     1.19     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          36   59  +13      78.52     4.11    21.33     0.00    31.40     6.39P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      35   57  +24      77.53     4.25    32.84     0.00    27.43     6.53P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       36   55   -4      68.17     4.20    -4.85     0.00     0.27     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         36   52  +12      64.82     4.25    11.11     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   51  +11      69.47     4.89    14.20     0.00     1.51     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      36   48   +8      63.31     4.18    10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            35   44   +2      59.01     4.41     2.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    37   44  -12      53.98     3.95   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           37   43   -7      53.05     3.79    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Histon             36   43   -9      55.36     4.19   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury          36   41   -9      53.40     4.17   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   38  -26      46.17     3.32   -28.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.63R    0.00  
Gateshead          37   35  -22      43.04     3.68   -29.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.04R    0.00  
Barrow             32   34  -17      50.45     5.21   -21.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.71R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    37   34  -29      43.84     3.76   -32.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.32R    0.00  
Forest_Green       35   30  -29      42.22     4.32   -34.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.17R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     35   19  -45      25.34     3.43   -60.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R    8.32  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.10     5.81   -28.58     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   91.68  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1