Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 5 March 2010 at 22:19:19 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 February 2010, Liverpool vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         28   61  +39      81.39     3.68    52.22    36.53    69.15    98.28    99.77   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         28   60  +42      81.24     4.04    53.92    38.34    68.60    97.29    99.41    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   58  +35      80.39     3.65    52.25    25.08    61.44    97.29    99.51    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       28   49  +23      66.95     4.08    30.21     0.01     0.20     1.85    26.73    77.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        27   49  +17      66.79     4.55    21.32     0.02     0.30     2.05    25.15    68.84     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   48  +17      66.49     4.06    24.49     0.00     0.08     0.94    19.32    72.80     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   45  +16      67.49     4.53    24.79     0.02     0.23     2.30    29.91    76.63     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      27   40   -2      54.90     4.45    -1.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.93     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   38   +3      52.14     3.97     3.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.00     0.00  
Everton         27   38   +0      55.50     4.33     3.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     2.11     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           27   34   -5      47.11     4.25    -8.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   34  -15      43.04     3.89   -22.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35R    0.00  
West_Ham        27   27   -8      40.99     4.09   -11.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.62R    0.17  
Sunderland      27   27  -12      40.23     4.37   -15.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.95R    0.41  
Bolton          27   26  -19      35.80     3.90   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.63R    4.20  
Wigan           27   25  -27      34.71     3.92   -38.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.22R    9.57  
Wolverhampton   27   24  -24      33.15     3.92   -34.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.06R   16.01  
Hull            27   24  -29      34.06     4.13   -37.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.48R   12.95  
Burnley         27   23  -29      33.77     4.20   -37.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.08R   13.82  
Portsmouth      27   19  -22      29.97     4.08   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.59R   42.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 27 February 2010, Barnsley vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        33   69  +35      96.43     4.64    49.73    85.54    98.74   100.00    99.25P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        33   63  +31      88.77     4.87    44.24    13.44    82.64    99.97    88.47P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     34   61  +21      82.33     4.62    28.17     0.95    15.18    99.50    43.56P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   56   +8      75.48     4.93    10.79     0.03     1.52    85.18    21.18P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        33   54  +11      74.86     5.15    15.46     0.03     1.44    82.48    20.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   49  +15      72.02     5.35    21.26     0.00     0.47    67.00    15.96P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   48   +2      66.70     5.06     3.25     0.00     0.01    22.45     3.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        34   47   +9      64.44     4.73    10.23     0.00     0.00    11.50     2.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    34   47   +8      64.63     4.77     9.74     0.00     0.00    12.78     2.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         34   46   -7      61.44     4.78    -8.89     0.00     0.00     3.33     0.43P    0.19R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   45   -5      60.74     4.82    -8.54     0.00     0.00     2.34     0.28P    0.30R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   -1      61.91     5.30    -2.60     0.00     0.00     6.02     1.03P    0.20R    0.00  
Bristol_City     33   42   -7      57.96     4.96    -9.37     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.11P    1.90R    0.02  
Preston          33   42   -8      58.81     5.06    -9.74     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.19P    1.41R    0.01  
Doncaster        33   41   -1      58.43     4.98    -1.21     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.19P    1.10R    0.00  
Watford          31   39   -3      59.89     5.57    -2.79     0.00     0.00     3.47     0.54P    1.26R    0.03  
Derby            33   39   -9      55.20     5.15   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P    6.21R    0.12  
Ipswich          33   38   -8      53.73     4.88   -11.17     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    9.23R    0.21  
Reading          32   38   -9      55.45     5.30   -12.17     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.05P    6.01R    0.15  
Scunthorpe       34   38  -20      50.63     4.51   -26.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.09R    1.21  
QPR              32   37   -8      54.07     5.25   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    9.50R    0.27  
Sheff_Wed        33   34  -19      46.40     4.71   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.70R    6.08  
Plymouth         32   29  -15      44.24     5.08   -20.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.29R   14.89  
Peterborough     33   24  -20      37.17     4.82   -27.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.59R   77.01  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 March 2010, Bristol_Rovers vs Stockport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          34   72  +34      95.58     4.58    46.48    72.69    93.85    99.98    95.66P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   67  +30      90.79     4.91    38.89    22.69    71.55    99.44    80.52P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         34   63  +21      82.19     4.73    25.45     0.97     7.56    84.77    26.17P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   62  +17      84.87     4.97    24.81     2.38    15.92    92.28    35.22P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   60  +15      81.43     5.23    18.35     0.91     6.34    77.44    20.38P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     34   58  +20      79.19     4.85    27.14     0.20     2.39    67.66    19.29P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         33   58  +15      78.91     4.98    19.73     0.15     2.35    61.42    16.80P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   49   +0      66.36     4.94    -1.24     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   33   48   -7      63.62     4.93   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      32   44  +26      71.87     5.11    39.71     0.00     0.04    15.05     5.67P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          33   43   -2      61.44     5.07    -1.15     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Yeovil           34   41   -3      56.41     4.73    -4.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.77R    0.00  
Carlisle         33   40   -3      55.67     4.94    -7.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.61R    0.00  
Brentford        30   38   +0      60.06     5.66     0.49     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.39R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    33   38   -6      53.96     4.88    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.74R    0.01  
Brighton         33   37  -11      53.53     5.01   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.65R    0.02  
Hartlepool       33   35  -10      51.97     5.01   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.35R    0.14  
Gillingham       34   34  -13      46.49     4.48   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.69R    1.07  
Tranmere         32   33  -23      45.26     4.72   -33.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.83R    3.28  
Southend         33   32  -13      48.62     4.89   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.91R    0.57  
Oldham           31   32  -14      49.25     5.30   -18.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.95R    0.50  
Exeter           33   31  -15      46.18     4.98   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.42R    1.53  
Wycombe          34   28  -25      40.59     4.61   -31.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.65R   12.85  
Stockport        33   23  -33      34.34     4.41   -45.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.94R   80.03  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 March 2010, Aldershot vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             33   68  +39      95.06     4.56    54.84    82.54    99.76   100.00    99.86P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          34   60   +7      78.33     4.66     9.67     0.25    24.83    83.61    38.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 33   59   +5      79.01     5.03     8.31     0.39    31.00    84.71    42.40P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         33   57   +8      75.94     5.10     9.43     0.15    14.56    67.35    26.83P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   56   +9      77.06     5.38    11.59     0.20    21.68    73.68    34.31P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   55  +10      73.98     4.75    13.93     0.02     6.89    56.05    20.38P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         30   54  +37      87.43     5.44    55.54    16.42    88.83    99.17    93.49P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   51   +9      72.78     5.12    15.09     0.02     5.61    47.42    17.09P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            33   50   +4      70.52     5.15     8.01     0.00     2.34    29.20     9.22P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          34   49   +5      66.46     4.74     6.42     0.00     0.21     8.25     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   48   +6      66.79     5.11     7.04     0.00     0.53    11.34     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            33   46   +7      64.15     5.11     7.77     0.00     0.14     5.09     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   46   +1      70.29     5.85     4.37     0.01     3.50    28.77     9.25P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   46   +0      64.67     4.95     0.92     0.00     0.14     4.73     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                33   42   -2      59.11     5.05    -3.64     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford             32   40   -6      56.17     5.29   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Hereford             33   38  -13      54.35     4.94   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.11R    0.00  
Barnet               33   37   -9      52.98     5.02   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   34  -20      45.32     4.45   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.64R    0.01  
Torquay              34   33   -5      48.32     4.69    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.29R    0.01  
Macclesfield         32   32  -11      49.32     5.21   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.03R    0.00  
Cheltenham           33   31  -15      45.28     4.74   -20.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.49R    0.03  
Grimsby              33   24  -24      35.12     4.41   -34.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.41R    3.66  
Darlington           30   15  -42      23.90     4.27   -65.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   96.30  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 March 2010, Histon vs Rushden_&_D'mnds; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         32   70  +35      98.68     4.85    49.88    63.87    99.96    76.36P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          33   69  +37      95.75     4.57    51.16    35.12    99.83    59.63P    0.00     0.00  
York               32   60  +18      85.71     5.02    28.04     0.77    84.40    18.75P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   33   59  +24      80.48     4.87    29.90     0.06    50.26    10.46P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   57  +12      79.94     4.87    19.98     0.02    42.40     7.57P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          32   55  +14      82.15     4.98    26.06     0.12    63.04    13.63P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          34   55  +12      71.55     4.82    12.05     0.00     3.77     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      32   53  +23      80.06     4.96    35.66     0.03    49.49    12.01P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      32   50  +13      72.13     5.39    17.52     0.00     6.34     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       33   49   -4      65.50     4.90    -6.03     0.00     0.19     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         32   46  +10      62.78     5.16     7.13     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   42   +4      63.84     5.46     6.20     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           34   42   -5      55.20     4.54    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    34   40  -12      53.00     4.66   -18.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Histon             32   39   -8      55.82     5.12   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Salisbury          33   38   -6      52.77     4.80   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   37  -25      46.75     3.82   -29.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.75R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      32   36   +3      56.40     5.29     5.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    35   33  -27      43.95     4.13   -33.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.57R    0.00  
Barrow             29   31  -13      50.53     5.81   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.88R    0.00  
Gateshead          34   31  -16      42.73     4.41   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.75R    0.00  
Forest_Green       32   27  -27      41.06     4.91   -35.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.51R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     33   18  -43      25.54     3.79   -62.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R    7.78  
Chester            28   -3  -19      14.83     5.75   -28.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   92.21  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1