Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 4 March 2010 at 22:19:22 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 February 2010, Liverpool vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         28   61  +39      81.42     3.69    52.27    36.89    69.51    98.29    99.70   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         28   60  +42      81.18     4.05    53.82    37.82    67.93    97.35    99.44    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   58  +35      80.40     3.67    52.26    25.22    61.72    97.27    99.58    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       28   49  +23      66.94     4.08    30.18     0.02     0.18     1.79    26.81    77.20     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        27   49  +17      66.80     4.54    21.35     0.02     0.33     2.10    25.18    69.36     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   48  +17      66.52     4.09    24.48     0.01     0.07     1.00    19.46    72.80     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   45  +16      67.45     4.54    24.74     0.01     0.25     2.19    29.63    76.28     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      27   40   -2      54.76     4.42    -2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.88     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   38   +3      52.10     3.98     3.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.00     0.00  
Everton         27   38   +0      55.49     4.35     3.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     2.31     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           27   34   -5      47.13     4.23    -8.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   34  -15      43.01     3.89   -22.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38R    0.00  
West_Ham        27   27   -8      40.94     4.10   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.77R    0.14  
Sunderland      27   27  -12      40.30     4.38   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.95R    0.37  
Bolton          27   26  -19      35.78     3.91   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.26R    4.26  
Wigan           27   25  -27      34.78     3.92   -38.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.78R    9.63  
Wolverhampton   27   24  -24      33.23     3.91   -34.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.21R   15.56  
Hull            27   24  -29      34.02     4.13   -37.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.20R   13.36  
Burnley         27   23  -29      33.82     4.20   -37.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.97R   14.04  
Portsmouth      27   19  -22      30.03     4.07   -28.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.45R   42.62  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 27 February 2010, Barnsley vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        33   69  +35      96.38     4.68    49.65    85.33    98.69   100.00    99.23P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        33   63  +31      88.79     4.84    44.23    13.65    82.81    99.98    88.81P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     34   61  +21      82.31     4.63    28.17     0.97    15.13    99.42    43.91P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   56   +8      75.44     4.95    10.75     0.02     1.52    84.92    20.93P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        33   54  +11      74.90     5.13    15.54     0.02     1.34    82.55    19.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   49  +15      71.99     5.34    21.20     0.01     0.49    66.87    15.67P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   48   +2      66.70     5.05     3.22     0.00     0.01    22.53     3.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        34   47   +9      64.49     4.77    10.29     0.00     0.01    11.99     2.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    34   47   +8      64.62     4.74     9.74     0.00     0.00    12.53     2.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         34   46   -7      61.36     4.75    -9.03     0.00     0.00     3.10     0.39P    0.19R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   45   -5      60.83     4.88    -8.44     0.00     0.00     2.57     0.35P    0.33R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   -1      61.87     5.32    -2.67     0.00     0.00     5.95     1.00P    0.23R    0.00  
Bristol_City     33   42   -7      58.06     4.97    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.12P    1.73R    0.01  
Preston          33   42   -8      58.77     5.00    -9.79     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.17P    1.40R    0.01  
Doncaster        33   41   -1      58.38     5.00    -1.28     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.19P    1.17R    0.01  
Watford          31   39   -3      59.98     5.62    -2.67     0.00     0.00     3.50     0.60P    1.28R    0.02  
Derby            33   39   -9      55.12     5.15   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P    6.18R    0.11  
Ipswich          33   38   -8      53.76     4.86   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    8.90R    0.22  
Reading          32   38   -9      55.32     5.30   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    6.44R    0.16  
Scunthorpe       34   38  -20      50.66     4.52   -26.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.36R    1.18  
QPR              32   37   -8      54.08     5.30   -11.55     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P    9.86R    0.28  
Sheff_Wed        33   34  -19      46.47     4.69   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.07R    5.75  
Plymouth         32   29  -15      44.27     5.08   -20.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.27R   14.78  
Peterborough     33   24  -20      37.14     4.83   -27.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.58R   77.46  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 March 2010, Bristol_Rovers vs Stockport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          34   72  +34      95.60     4.57    46.43    73.03    93.96    99.98    95.66P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   67  +30      90.65     4.95    38.70    22.42    70.32    99.37    79.29P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         34   63  +21      82.23     4.72    25.52     0.95     7.83    84.83    26.54P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   62  +17      84.91     5.02    24.81     2.33    16.60    92.25    36.00P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   60  +15      81.32     5.25    18.17     0.99     6.63    77.07    20.39P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     34   58  +20      79.15     4.84    27.09     0.13     2.39    67.52    19.34P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         33   58  +15      78.91     4.96    19.69     0.14     2.23    61.44    16.62P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   49   +0      66.42     5.00    -1.16     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   33   48   -7      63.47     4.91   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      32   44  +26      71.91     5.11    39.74     0.00     0.04    15.39     5.81P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          33   43   -2      61.40     5.06    -1.25     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.08R    0.00  
Yeovil           34   41   -3      56.32     4.74    -4.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.93R    0.00  
Carlisle         33   40   -3      55.74     4.95    -7.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.65R    0.00  
Brentford        30   38   +0      60.07     5.61     0.49     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.40R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    33   38   -6      54.03     4.84    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.55R    0.01  
Brighton         33   37  -11      53.54     5.03   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.89R    0.02  
Hartlepool       33   35  -10      51.98     5.01   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.64R    0.09  
Gillingham       34   34  -13      46.52     4.48   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.53R    1.10  
Tranmere         32   33  -23      45.28     4.70   -33.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.95R    3.12  
Southend         33   32  -13      48.75     4.90   -14.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.57R    0.49  
Oldham           31   32  -14      49.38     5.29   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.98R    0.59  
Exeter           33   31  -15      46.16     4.98   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.19R    1.59  
Wycombe          34   28  -25      40.69     4.61   -31.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.65R   12.44  
Stockport        33   23  -33      34.24     4.42   -45.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.99R   80.56  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 March 2010, Aldershot vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             33   68  +39      95.06     4.56    54.87    83.25    99.75   100.00    99.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          34   60   +7      78.47     4.70     9.90     0.34    25.86    84.05    39.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 33   59   +5      79.20     5.01     8.61     0.42    31.61    85.63    43.57P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         33   57   +8      75.98     5.11     9.51     0.15    14.47    67.54    26.72P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   56   +9      77.05     5.38    11.60     0.20    21.19    73.68    33.98P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   55  +10      74.03     4.72    14.04     0.03     6.75    56.31    20.47P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         30   54  +37      87.23     5.40    55.24    15.59    88.20    99.24    93.20P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   51   +9      72.81     5.15    15.13     0.01     5.85    47.58    17.15P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            33   50   +4      70.46     5.14     7.92     0.00     2.18    28.52     8.75P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          34   49   +5      66.43     4.71     6.38     0.00     0.19     8.03     2.16P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   48   +6      66.78     5.10     7.03     0.00     0.47    11.20     3.03P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            33   46   +7      64.04     5.08     7.59     0.00     0.14     4.81     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   46   +1      70.26     5.84     4.31     0.01     3.25    28.41     8.91P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   46   +0      64.54     4.91     0.70     0.00     0.08     4.37     1.04P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                33   42   -2      59.14     5.04    -3.57     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford             32   40   -6      56.17     5.27   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford             33   38  -13      54.45     4.97   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Barnet               33   37   -9      53.01     5.02   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   34  -20      45.25     4.45   -30.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.82R    0.00  
Torquay              34   33   -5      48.35     4.72    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.35R    0.00  
Macclesfield         32   32  -11      49.33     5.21   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham           33   31  -15      45.29     4.76   -20.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.63R    0.02  
Grimsby              33   24  -24      35.11     4.47   -34.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.06R    3.43  
Darlington           30   15  -42      23.88     4.22   -65.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   96.54  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 March 2010, Histon vs Rushden_&_D'mnds; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         32   70  +35      98.52     4.81    49.61    62.50    99.94    74.99P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          33   69  +37      95.83     4.56    51.32    36.47    99.88    60.23P    0.00     0.00  
York               32   60  +18      85.77     5.06    28.09     0.80    84.33    18.98P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   33   59  +24      80.72     4.88    30.28     0.08    52.42    11.40P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   57  +12      79.87     4.88    19.93     0.01    41.57     7.22P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          32   55  +14      82.17     4.94    26.09     0.10    62.81    13.57P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          34   55  +12      71.45     4.79    11.89     0.00     3.52     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      32   53  +23      80.03     4.94    35.58     0.04    48.79    12.05P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      32   50  +13      72.07     5.39    17.49     0.00     6.24     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       33   49   -4      65.37     4.86    -6.28     0.00     0.18     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         32   46  +10      62.77     5.16     7.12     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   42   +4      63.69     5.54     6.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           34   42   -5      55.25     4.53    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    34   40  -12      53.01     4.60   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Histon             32   39   -8      55.97     5.14   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Salisbury          33   38   -6      52.80     4.81   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   37  -25      46.68     3.80   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.76R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      32   36   +3      56.52     5.25     5.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    35   33  -27      43.93     4.10   -33.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.42R    0.00  
Barrow             29   31  -13      50.61     5.89   -19.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.99R    0.00  
Gateshead          34   31  -16      42.70     4.44   -23.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.56R    0.00  
Forest_Green       32   27  -27      41.03     4.93   -35.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.82R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     33   18  -43      25.45     3.77   -62.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R    8.35  
Chester            28   -3  -19      14.98     5.81   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   91.64  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1