Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 2 March 2010 at 22:19:19 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 February 2010, Liverpool vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         28   61  +39      81.38     3.69    52.25    36.41    68.78    98.39    99.76    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         28   60  +42      81.20     4.05    53.88    37.90    68.16    97.33    99.49    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   58  +35      80.43     3.64    52.34    25.62    62.27    97.41    99.53    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       28   49  +23      66.89     4.09    30.08     0.02     0.17     1.61    26.07    76.90     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        27   49  +17      66.73     4.55    21.26     0.04     0.31     2.11    24.88    68.79     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   48  +17      66.52     4.09    24.49     0.00     0.07     1.01    19.93    73.16     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   45  +16      67.49     4.51    24.81     0.02     0.23     2.15    30.15    76.80     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      27   40   -2      54.91     4.40    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     2.02     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   38   +3      52.09     3.99     3.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.00     0.00  
Everton         27   38   +0      55.51     4.35     4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.11     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           27   34   -5      47.15     4.22    -8.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   34  -15      43.02     3.91   -22.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40R    0.00  
West_Ham        27   27   -8      41.01     4.09   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.56R    0.16  
Sunderland      27   27  -12      40.18     4.36   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.08R    0.44  
Bolton          27   26  -19      35.75     3.88   -29.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.10R    4.23  
Wigan           27   25  -27      34.73     3.93   -38.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.22R    9.80  
Wolverhampton   27   24  -24      33.18     3.90   -34.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.48R   15.97  
Hull            27   24  -29      34.02     4.12   -37.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.89R   13.38  
Burnley         27   23  -29      33.75     4.20   -37.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.52R   14.67  
Portsmouth      27   19  -22      30.15     4.06   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.72R   41.35  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 27 February 2010, Barnsley vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        33   69  +35      96.36     4.68    49.61    85.45    98.72   100.00    99.28P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        33   63  +31      88.76     4.85    44.19    13.47    82.83    99.98    88.83P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     34   61  +21      82.31     4.61    28.12     1.04    15.20    99.48    43.90P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   56   +8      75.23     4.92    10.50     0.03     1.40    84.06    20.40P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        33   54  +11      74.81     5.12    15.41     0.02     1.28    82.51    19.66P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   49  +15      72.01     5.35    21.26     0.00     0.55    67.08    16.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   48   +2      66.67     5.08     3.16     0.00     0.01    22.67     3.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        34   47   +9      64.41     4.74    10.18     0.00     0.00    11.42     2.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    34   47   +8      64.55     4.78     9.60     0.00     0.00    12.53     2.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         34   46   -7      61.47     4.75    -8.85     0.00     0.00     3.43     0.44P    0.19R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   45   -5      60.91     4.86    -8.27     0.00     0.00     2.77     0.36P    0.26R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   -1      61.94     5.34    -2.55     0.00     0.00     6.21     1.14P    0.24R    0.00  
Bristol_City     33   42   -7      58.01     4.99    -9.29     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.08P    1.87R    0.01  
Preston          33   42   -8      58.77     5.04    -9.80     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.18P    1.51R    0.01  
Doncaster        33   41   -1      58.31     5.01    -1.41     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.19P    1.31R    0.02  
Watford          31   39   -3      60.04     5.65    -2.56     0.00     0.00     3.91     0.61P    1.26R    0.02  
Derby            33   39   -9      55.16     5.11   -11.51     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    6.35R    0.10  
Ipswich          33   38   -8      53.78     4.86   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    9.13R    0.17  
Reading          32   38   -9      55.34     5.25   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.05P    6.27R    0.17  
Scunthorpe       34   38  -20      50.85     4.51   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.13R    1.12  
QPR              32   37   -8      54.05     5.23   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    9.95R    0.25  
Sheff_Wed        33   34  -19      46.50     4.71   -28.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.31R    5.78  
Plymouth         32   29  -15      44.26     5.13   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.52R   14.93  
Peterborough     33   24  -20      37.16     4.79   -27.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.66R   77.41  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 March 2010, Bristol_Rovers vs Stockport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          34   72  +34      95.58     4.56    46.42    72.96    94.12    99.99    95.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   67  +30      90.79     4.91    38.89    22.60    71.45    99.46    80.51P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         34   63  +21      82.21     4.75    25.44     1.05     7.86    84.60    26.09P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   62  +17      84.85     4.98    24.77     2.20    15.85    92.37    35.10P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   60  +15      81.31     5.23    18.12     0.91     6.10    76.86    20.02P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     34   58  +20      79.15     4.86    27.09     0.15     2.32    67.32    19.29P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         33   58  +15      78.89     4.94    19.70     0.13     2.23    61.52    16.74P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   49   +0      66.38     4.99    -1.21     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   33   48   -7      63.62     4.92   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      32   44  +26      71.96     5.10    39.83     0.00     0.05    15.64     5.99P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          33   43   -2      61.54     5.03    -1.01     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Yeovil           34   41   -3      56.29     4.71    -4.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.84R    0.00  
Carlisle         33   40   -3      55.71     4.93    -7.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40R    0.00  
Brentford        30   38   +0      60.15     5.69     0.57     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.40R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    33   38   -6      53.96     4.84    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.51R    0.02  
Brighton         33   37  -11      53.66     5.03   -12.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.51R    0.02  
Hartlepool       33   35  -10      51.95     5.02   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.69R    0.11  
Gillingham       34   34  -13      46.45     4.49   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.79R    1.13  
Tranmere         32   33  -23      45.28     4.71   -33.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.52R    3.14  
Southend         33   32  -13      48.53     4.92   -15.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.85R    0.58  
Oldham           31   32  -14      49.28     5.25   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.30R    0.55  
Exeter           33   31  -15      46.18     4.97   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.70R    1.53  
Wycombe          34   28  -25      40.62     4.61   -31.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.49R   13.02  
Stockport        33   23  -33      34.34     4.40   -44.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.92R   79.90  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 March 2010, Aldershot vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             33   68  +39      95.03     4.61    54.82    82.37    99.69   100.00    99.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          34   60   +7      78.40     4.65     9.79     0.32    25.13    84.22    39.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 33   59   +5      79.12     5.02     8.48     0.32    31.54    85.29    43.23P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         33   57   +8      75.99     5.05     9.47     0.12    14.49    68.21    26.90P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   56   +9      77.06     5.37    11.59     0.21    21.31    73.85    33.97P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   55  +10      73.91     4.73    13.86     0.02     6.51    54.72    19.67P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         30   54  +37      87.42     5.40    55.52    16.62    89.01    99.24    93.60P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   51   +9      72.75     5.15    15.03     0.00     5.77    47.09    17.32P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            33   50   +4      70.51     5.13     7.97     0.00     2.32    28.91     8.97P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          34   49   +5      66.51     4.71     6.48     0.00     0.20     8.19     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   48   +6      66.79     5.08     7.09     0.00     0.42    11.13     3.11P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            33   46   +7      64.11     5.12     7.72     0.00     0.17     4.96     1.63P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   46   +1      70.35     5.83     4.46     0.01     3.34    28.91     9.08P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   46   +0      64.63     4.92     0.86     0.00     0.12     4.68     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                33   42   -2      59.16     5.04    -3.58     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford             32   40   -6      56.03     5.28   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford             33   38  -13      54.42     4.96   -15.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.08R    0.00  
Barnet               33   37   -9      52.96     5.01   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   34  -20      45.25     4.44   -30.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.90R    0.00  
Torquay              34   33   -5      48.26     4.68    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    0.00  
Macclesfield         32   32  -11      49.35     5.20   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.03R    0.01  
Cheltenham           33   31  -15      45.32     4.76   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.67R    0.03  
Grimsby              33   24  -24      35.19     4.44   -34.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.92R    3.31  
Darlington           30   15  -42      23.87     4.23   -65.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   96.64  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 March 2010, Cambridge_Utd vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         32   70  +35      98.72     4.85    49.93    64.18    99.96    76.31P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          33   69  +37      95.71     4.56    51.13    34.76    99.89    59.07P    0.00     0.00  
York               32   60  +18      85.86     5.03    28.24     0.87    85.68    19.20P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   57  +12      80.01     4.87    20.09     0.00    44.91     7.99P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   32   56  +23      79.20     5.15    29.48     0.04    42.63     9.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          32   55  +14      82.21     4.95    26.19     0.11    65.08    14.29P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          34   55  +12      71.54     4.79    12.02     0.00     3.93     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      32   53  +23      80.06     4.96    35.67     0.04    51.00    12.41P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      32   50  +13      72.04     5.37    17.43     0.00     6.35     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       33   49   -4      65.42     4.88    -6.25     0.00     0.21     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         32   46  +10      62.76     5.16     7.09     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   42   +4      63.84     5.44     6.20     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           34   42   -5      55.16     4.56    -9.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    34   40  -12      52.87     4.60   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Histon             31   39   -7      57.00     5.32   -10.86     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury          33   38   -6      52.76     4.83   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   37  -25      46.75     3.79   -29.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.56R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      32   36   +3      56.51     5.21     5.31     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    35   33  -27      43.95     4.14   -33.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.30R    0.00  
Barrow             29   31  -13      50.61     5.87   -19.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.83R    0.00  
Gateshead          34   31  -16      42.62     4.40   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.99R    0.00  
Forest_Green       32   27  -27      41.01     4.90   -35.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.86R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     33   18  -43      25.54     3.82   -62.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R    8.25  
Chester            28   -3  -19      14.90     5.81   -28.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   91.75  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1