Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 25 February 2010 at 22:19:11 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2010, Man_Utd vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         27   61  +41      84.53     3.83    57.61    65.78    90.25    99.70    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         28   60  +42      81.00     4.08    53.54    24.92    68.03    97.73    99.59    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   55  +33      78.87     4.00    50.22     9.27    41.13    95.43    98.99    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   46  +22      66.11     4.32    30.61     0.01     0.19     2.21    28.29    79.19     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        26   46  +15      63.44     4.72    15.93     0.01     0.09     0.90    11.95    49.52     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   45  +16      65.90     4.25    25.28     0.00     0.07     1.27    23.41    78.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   45  +16      67.40     4.53    24.79     0.01     0.24     2.75    37.19    83.72     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   38   +1      56.06     4.54     3.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42     5.64     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   37   +3      52.35     4.25     2.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.86     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      26   37   -3      54.23     4.71    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     3.03     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           26   34   -3      48.36     4.52    -6.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   34  -14      43.29     4.02   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.44R    0.00  
West_Ham        27   27   -8      41.06     4.09   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.03R    0.08  
Sunderland      26   26  -12      40.95     4.67   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.08R    0.28  
Wigan           26   25  -26      35.48     4.11   -38.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.16R    5.42  
Wolverhampton   26   24  -23      34.12     4.15   -33.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.04R    8.63  
Hull            27   24  -29      34.18     4.17   -36.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.30R    8.72  
Bolton          26   23  -20      34.76     4.17   -30.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.45R    6.36  
Burnley         26   23  -28      35.91     4.53   -35.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.86R    5.53  
Portsmouth      26   16  -23      27.49     4.25   -31.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.61R   64.99  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2010, Doncaster vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        32   66  +34      95.35     4.91    49.54    80.53    96.28   100.00    97.78P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     33   61  +24      84.54     4.83    32.34     3.96    28.54    99.80    54.50P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        32   60  +29      88.28     5.07    44.04    15.40    71.96    99.95    81.85P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   53   +7      74.19     5.18    10.23     0.03     1.07    78.70    18.39P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   51   +8      72.19     5.35    10.98     0.01     0.54    66.32    13.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   49  +18      74.45     5.59    25.87     0.08     1.58    81.38    21.24P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   47  +10      65.93     5.00    11.44     0.00     0.01    21.53     4.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   45   +1      65.38     5.35     2.68     0.00     0.00    18.74     2.94P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    33   44   +6      63.32     5.00     8.19     0.00     0.00    10.01     1.98P    0.09R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   -1      61.87     5.54    -3.16     0.00     0.00     7.13     1.20P    0.40R    0.00  
Coventry         33   43   -8      60.29     5.04    -9.09     0.00     0.00     2.89     0.36P    0.85R    0.01  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      58.79     5.13   -10.08     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.20P    1.60R    0.03  
Bristol_City     32   41   -7      58.19     5.27    -9.64     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.16P    2.74R    0.08  
Doncaster        32   40   -1      59.09     5.28    -0.90     0.00     0.00     2.30     0.36P    1.36R    0.03  
Watford          30   39   -2      60.98     5.83    -2.18     0.00     0.00     6.09     0.94P    1.20R    0.03  
Derby            32   39   -7      55.81     5.35   -10.91     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.10P    6.75R    0.20  
Preston          32   39  -11      55.86     5.22   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.05P    6.97R    0.18  
Scunthorpe       33   38  -19      51.78     4.78   -25.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   23.94R    1.38  
QPR              31   37   -6      55.45     5.50    -9.59     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.09P    8.20R    0.33  
Ipswich          32   37   -8      54.42     5.17   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    9.66R    0.32  
Reading          31   35  -14      52.75     5.48   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   20.16R    1.40  
Sheff_Wed        32   34  -14      48.54     5.04   -21.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    47.82R    4.55  
Plymouth         31   29  -14      44.98     5.30   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.87R   16.39  
Peterborough     32   24  -19      38.17     5.05   -26.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.33R   75.08  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2010, Charlton vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          33   69  +33      94.37     4.80    46.05    60.44    86.57    99.95    90.51P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     32   66  +30      91.42     5.21    39.24    29.44    67.73    99.40    78.00P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   62  +18      86.84     5.21    26.61     6.27    25.08    96.06    43.16P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         33   60  +20      80.78     4.98    24.80     0.67     4.42    78.06    21.66P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          31   59  +15      82.00     5.57    18.68     1.70     7.65    80.73    21.21P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     32   57  +25      81.54     5.33    33.01     1.35     7.30    82.45    29.31P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   55  +14      77.78     5.19    19.55     0.13     1.24    53.58    13.60P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   49   +1      67.78     5.28    -0.14     0.00     0.01     3.44     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          32   43   +2      62.91     5.31     2.96     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.11P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   42   -9      60.57     5.41   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.39R    0.00  
Southampton      30   38  +17      67.64     5.78    28.74     0.00     0.01     5.40     1.79P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford        30   38   +0      59.94     5.63     0.31     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.06P    0.54R    0.00  
Yeovil           33   38   -4      55.05     5.07    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.08R    0.01  
Carlisle         32   37   -5      54.32     5.19    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.96R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    32   37   -6      54.11     5.13    -9.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.11R    0.02  
Hartlepool       32   35   -9      52.87     5.21   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.37R    0.07  
Gillingham       33   34  -11      47.86     4.79   -17.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.76R    0.56  
Brighton         32   34  -13      52.09     5.32   -14.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.28R    0.07  
Tranmere         32   33  -23      45.28     4.72   -33.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.10R    2.40  
Southend         32   32  -12      49.86     5.20   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.44R    0.30  
Oldham           30   32  -13      50.47     5.54   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.82R    0.34  
Exeter           32   31  -13      47.37     5.23   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.90R    0.79  
Wycombe          33   28  -24      41.59     4.82   -30.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.79R    9.41  
Stockport        31   20  -33      32.81     4.83   -46.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.37R   86.03  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 February 2010, Crewe vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             31   62  +34      92.42     5.15    50.47    74.81    97.70    99.98    98.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          33   60   +8      79.72     4.92    10.79     1.97    33.08    89.34    45.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   58   +5      79.69     5.32     8.79     1.80    33.37    87.29    44.61P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         32   57   +9      77.96     5.41    11.44     1.32    23.75    79.73    36.40P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            30   53  +12      76.81     5.91    14.55     1.20    20.70    72.89    34.34P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52   +9      72.52     5.02    13.15     0.06     4.14    46.22    15.67P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         28   48  +31      85.27     5.91    51.24    18.63    76.65    97.66    85.93P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          33   46   +4      65.53     4.98     6.48     0.00     0.10     7.28     1.98P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   46   +2      71.68     6.13     5.42     0.17     5.63    38.81    12.65P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            31   46   +2      69.45     5.64     6.25     0.01     1.90    25.33     7.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   46   +1      66.27     5.24     2.28     0.00     0.40    10.31     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   45   +7      69.50     5.70    13.15     0.01     2.12    27.70     9.08P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            32   45   +5      65.27     5.39     6.24     0.00     0.22     8.66     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            31   43   +6      64.24     5.58     7.23     0.00     0.24     7.27     2.37P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                32   41   -2      59.93     5.34    -2.94     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford             30   37   -6      56.52     5.80   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.08P    0.05R    0.00  
Barnet               32   36   -9      53.20     5.28   -11.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.27R    0.00  
Hereford             31   35   -9      53.50     5.39   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.32R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   33  -20      45.36     4.75   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.96R    0.03  
Macclesfield         30   32   -9      50.40     5.60   -14.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.18R    0.00  
Cheltenham           31   31  -13      47.94     5.27   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.80R    0.03  
Torquay              32   29   -6      47.20     5.32    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.10R    0.04  
Grimsby              32   24  -22      35.84     4.65   -33.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.61R    5.25  
Darlington           28   15  -39      25.12     4.63   -64.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   94.64  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 February 2010, Wrexham vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         31   69  +35      99.89     5.11    51.32    76.72    99.92    84.48P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          32   66  +31      93.82     4.87    44.31    19.43    99.14    45.95P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   60  +19      88.97     5.17    32.11     3.28    92.53    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   56  +13      82.26     5.39    22.01     0.20    56.01    10.49P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   55  +23      79.47     5.46    29.30     0.10    38.25     8.07P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          31   54  +14      82.37     5.25    26.07     0.20    58.70    12.80P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      32   53  +23      80.17     4.91    35.89     0.05    43.92    11.24P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   53  +12      72.38     5.32    12.08     0.00     5.28     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   46  +10      72.01     5.86    16.25     0.00     5.63     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         31   45  +10      64.64     5.38     9.42     0.00     0.30     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       31   45   -5      63.54     5.34    -7.91     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   41   +4      63.97     5.73     5.89     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             30   39   -4      58.83     5.62    -7.11     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Tamworth           33   39   -6      53.72     4.80   -10.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   39  -12      53.19     4.88   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Salisbury          31   36   -6      53.67     5.32   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   36  -22      48.10     4.27   -26.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.89R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   35   +3      56.25     5.43     4.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Gateshead          33   31  -15      43.74     4.64   -23.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.18R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    33   30  -22      42.27     4.43   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.73R    0.00  
Barrow             28   28  -16      47.48     6.04   -24.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.56R    0.00  
Forest_Green       32   27  -27      41.16     4.89   -35.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.03R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     32   17  -43      24.60     3.91   -65.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   10.88  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.12     5.79   -28.48     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   89.11  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1