Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 24 February 2010 at 22:19:13 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2010, Man_Utd vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         27   61  +41      84.43     3.86    57.45    65.08    89.50    99.63    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         28   60  +42      81.04     4.07    53.59    25.50    67.78    97.97    99.61    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   55  +33      78.95     3.96    50.37     9.38    42.15    95.47    99.02    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   46  +22      66.18     4.34    30.68     0.00     0.16     2.08    28.47    79.21     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        26   46  +15      63.37     4.71    15.86     0.02     0.10     0.79    11.49    48.65     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   45  +16      66.03     4.23    25.52     0.00     0.08     1.29    23.85    79.12     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   45  +16      67.46     4.51    24.88     0.01     0.22     2.75    37.06    83.85     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   38   +1      56.05     4.52     3.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     5.46     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   37   +3      52.44     4.27     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      26   37   -3      54.13     4.70    -1.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     2.72     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           26   34   -3      48.41     4.54    -6.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.04R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   34  -14      43.18     3.98   -24.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53R    0.00  
West_Ham        27   27   -8      41.05     4.08   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.04R    0.09  
Sunderland      26   26  -12      40.87     4.68   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.24R    0.30  
Wigan           26   25  -26      35.42     4.10   -38.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.59R    5.48  
Wolverhampton   26   24  -23      34.09     4.18   -34.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.63R    8.95  
Hull            27   24  -29      34.06     4.15   -36.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.26R    9.24  
Bolton          26   23  -20      34.82     4.14   -29.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.42R    6.25  
Burnley         26   23  -28      35.98     4.52   -35.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.89R    5.42  
Portsmouth      26   16  -23      27.55     4.27   -31.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.36R   64.28  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2010, Doncaster vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        32   66  +34      95.39     4.93    49.62    80.59    96.04   100.00    97.69P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     33   61  +24      84.67     4.85    32.50     4.13    29.36    99.83    55.59P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        32   60  +29      88.27     5.05    44.04    15.16    71.50    99.95    81.47P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   53   +7      74.15     5.20    10.17     0.04     1.06    78.26    18.27P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   51   +8      72.27     5.32    11.10     0.02     0.51    67.18    13.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   49  +18      74.54     5.56    26.01     0.05     1.50    81.75    21.20P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   47  +10      65.97     4.99    11.51     0.00     0.01    21.64     4.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   45   +1      65.37     5.32     2.67     0.00     0.00    18.16     2.86P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    33   44   +6      63.29     5.03     8.14     0.00     0.00     9.81     1.89P    0.10R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   -1      61.80     5.55    -3.25     0.00     0.00     7.10     1.12P    0.44R    0.00  
Coventry         33   43   -8      60.23     5.05    -9.19     0.00     0.00     2.68     0.32P    0.95R    0.02  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      58.88     5.16    -9.95     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.21P    1.53R    0.03  
Bristol_City     32   41   -7      58.21     5.25    -9.64     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.20P    2.57R    0.04  
Doncaster        32   40   -1      59.07     5.27    -0.89     0.00     0.00     2.20     0.42P    1.46R    0.03  
Watford          30   39   -2      61.01     5.85    -2.17     0.00     0.00     6.23     0.96P    1.30R    0.06  
Derby            32   39   -7      55.72     5.34   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.06P    6.83R    0.20  
Preston          32   39  -11      55.81     5.26   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.06P    7.10R    0.17  
Scunthorpe       33   38  -19      51.75     4.77   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   23.65R    1.36  
QPR              31   37   -6      55.35     5.54    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.10P    8.43R    0.33  
Ipswich          32   37   -8      54.32     5.18   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   10.13R    0.38  
Reading          31   35  -14      52.87     5.48   -18.76     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.01P   19.57R    1.34  
Sheff_Wed        32   34  -14      48.54     5.04   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    47.58R    4.36  
Plymouth         31   29  -14      44.94     5.27   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.05R   16.57  
Peterborough     32   24  -19      38.15     5.07   -27.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.29R   75.12  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2010, Charlton vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          33   69  +33      94.34     4.84    46.04    59.90    86.10    99.95    90.02P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     32   66  +30      91.44     5.17    39.30    29.88    67.95    99.48    78.36P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   62  +18      86.83     5.22    26.59     6.22    25.10    95.87    43.40P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         33   60  +20      80.76     5.02    24.74     0.75     4.54    77.69    21.23P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          31   59  +15      81.92     5.56    18.50     1.62     7.39    80.57    20.76P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     32   57  +25      81.65     5.31    33.15     1.50     7.59    82.73    30.04P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   55  +14      77.88     5.17    19.66     0.14     1.35    54.28    13.96P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   49   +1      67.88     5.27     0.01     0.00     0.00     3.59     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          32   43   +2      62.81     5.29     2.88     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.13P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   42   -9      60.52     5.42   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.34R    0.00  
Southampton      30   38  +17      67.52     5.76    28.55     0.00     0.00     5.00     1.52P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford        30   38   +0      59.91     5.64     0.27     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.52R    0.00  
Yeovil           33   38   -4      55.10     5.02    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.95R    0.01  
Carlisle         32   37   -5      54.27     5.20    -8.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.33R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    32   37   -6      54.14     5.12    -9.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.05R    0.02  
Hartlepool       32   35   -9      52.87     5.21   -11.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.29R    0.05  
Gillingham       33   34  -11      47.89     4.81   -17.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.77R    0.54  
Brighton         32   34  -13      52.11     5.31   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.31R    0.06  
Tranmere         32   33  -23      45.34     4.74   -33.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.44R    2.39  
Southend         32   32  -12      49.93     5.21   -13.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.29R    0.28  
Oldham           30   32  -13      50.39     5.58   -17.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.73R    0.35  
Exeter           32   31  -13      47.35     5.26   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.05R    0.82  
Wycombe          33   28  -24      41.64     4.81   -30.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.49R    8.95  
Stockport        31   20  -33      32.77     4.82   -47.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.36R   86.52  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 February 2010, Crewe vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             31   62  +34      92.30     5.13    50.30    74.45    97.73    99.96    98.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          33   60   +8      79.70     4.94    10.77     1.88    32.87    89.22    45.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   58   +5      79.68     5.30     8.76     1.92    33.24    87.47    44.71P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         32   57   +9      77.96     5.40    11.42     1.34    24.00    80.22    36.75P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            30   53  +12      76.72     5.87    14.40     1.08    20.19    72.50    33.66P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52   +9      72.47     4.99    13.08     0.04     4.10    45.66    15.24P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         28   48  +31      85.29     5.89    51.29    19.08    77.16    97.67    86.14P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          33   46   +4      65.49     4.98     6.44     0.00     0.13     7.04     1.86P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   46   +2      71.76     6.14     5.48     0.20     5.74    39.62    13.10P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            31   46   +2      69.55     5.65     6.38     0.01     1.87    26.10     7.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   46   +1      66.21     5.24     2.21     0.00     0.35     9.94     2.54P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   45   +7      69.55     5.69    13.21     0.01     2.12    28.07     9.46P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            32   45   +5      65.28     5.35     6.25     0.00     0.26     8.18     2.21P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            31   43   +6      64.29     5.56     7.32     0.00     0.23     7.00     2.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                32   41   -2      59.80     5.30    -3.15     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford             30   37   -6      56.53     5.76   -10.20     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.12P    0.07R    0.00  
Barnet               32   36   -9      53.24     5.31   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.33R    0.00  
Hereford             31   35   -9      53.42     5.42   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.39R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   33  -20      45.33     4.77   -30.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.12R    0.03  
Macclesfield         30   32   -9      50.44     5.63   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.29R    0.02  
Cheltenham           31   31  -13      47.97     5.35   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.12R    0.04  
Torquay              32   29   -6      47.14     5.29    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.22R    0.07  
Grimsby              32   24  -22      36.03     4.66   -32.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.76R    4.94  
Darlington           28   15  -39      25.16     4.65   -64.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   94.89  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 February 2010, Wrexham vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         31   69  +35      99.80     5.11    51.20    76.21    99.94    83.98P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          32   66  +31      93.80     4.90    44.32    19.95    99.06    46.32P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   60  +19      88.79     5.17    31.81     3.30    91.98    24.65P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   56  +13      82.15     5.38    21.86     0.19    55.05    10.18P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   55  +23      79.45     5.44    29.27     0.06    38.30     8.26P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          31   54  +14      82.46     5.23    26.26     0.26    59.59    13.32P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      32   53  +23      80.15     4.93    35.84     0.03    44.08    11.36P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   53  +12      72.39     5.33    12.07     0.00     5.58     0.75P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   46  +10      72.13     5.82    16.42     0.00     5.83     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         31   45  +10      64.75     5.37     9.61     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       31   45   -5      63.44     5.36    -8.06     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   41   +4      64.00     5.74     5.90     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             30   39   -4      58.86     5.64    -7.05     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Tamworth           33   39   -6      53.79     4.77   -10.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   39  -12      53.21     4.85   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Salisbury          31   36   -6      53.76     5.32   -10.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   36  -22      48.09     4.30   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.02R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   35   +3      56.16     5.41     4.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Gateshead          33   31  -15      43.81     4.68   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.76R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    33   30  -22      42.42     4.48   -30.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.92R    0.00  
Barrow             28   28  -16      47.42     6.00   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.96R    0.00  
Forest_Green       32   27  -27      41.12     4.89   -35.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.69R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     32   17  -43      24.63     3.87   -65.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   10.32  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.03     5.79   -28.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   89.68  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1