Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 22 February 2010 at 22:19:10 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 21 February 2010, Aston_Villa vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         27   61  +41      84.52     3.85    57.64    66.60    90.40    99.68    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   57  +39      80.61     4.22    53.14    23.27    64.08    97.20    99.40    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   55  +33      79.04     3.96    50.55    10.10    44.83    95.78    99.10    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   46  +22      66.06     4.32    30.51     0.01     0.21     2.19    27.95    78.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        26   46  +15      63.36     4.69    15.80     0.01     0.12     0.87    11.62    48.84     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   45  +16      65.90     4.27    25.25     0.00     0.06     1.37    23.60    78.40     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   45  +16      67.44     4.53    24.79     0.02     0.31     2.91    37.68    84.11     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   38   +1      56.20     4.51     3.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.48     6.04     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   37   +3      52.42     4.29     2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.97     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      26   37   -3      54.10     4.71    -1.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     2.81     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           26   34   -3      48.35     4.50    -6.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   34  -14      43.22     4.01   -23.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40R    0.00  
West_Ham        26   27   -5      41.36     4.17   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.80R    0.09  
Sunderland      26   26  -12      41.02     4.65   -14.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.76R    0.23  
Wigan           26   25  -26      35.46     4.10   -38.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.12R    5.21  
Wolverhampton   26   24  -23      34.10     4.16   -33.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.01R    8.71  
Hull            27   24  -29      34.04     4.14   -36.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.81R    9.11  
Bolton          26   23  -20      34.74     4.16   -30.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.12R    6.51  
Burnley         26   23  -28      35.97     4.54   -35.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.49R    5.43  
Portsmouth      26   16  -23      27.49     4.27   -31.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.44R   64.70  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 21 February 2010, Bristol_City vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        32   66  +34      95.40     4.88    49.63    80.74    96.24   100.00    97.81P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     33   61  +24      84.66     4.83    32.54     3.95    29.53    99.82    56.10P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        32   60  +29      88.27     5.09    44.04    15.18    71.32    99.97    81.27P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   53   +7      74.09     5.21    10.11     0.05     0.96    79.38    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   49  +18      74.61     5.58    26.10     0.06     1.62    82.93    21.82P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        31   48   +7      70.08     5.62     9.30     0.01     0.30    52.73    10.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        33   47  +10      65.95     5.03    11.49     0.00     0.01    23.76     4.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   45   +1      65.36     5.31     2.65     0.00     0.00    19.77     3.22P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    33   44   +6      63.40     5.03     8.30     0.00     0.00    11.68     2.26P    0.11R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   -1      61.82     5.51    -3.24     0.00     0.00     7.72     1.18P    0.48R    0.01  
Coventry         33   43   -8      60.19     5.03    -9.27     0.00     0.00     3.07     0.35P    0.95R    0.01  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      58.80     5.11   -10.09     0.00     0.00     1.83     0.24P    1.62R    0.02  
Bristol_City     32   41   -7      58.11     5.22    -9.76     0.00     0.00     1.46     0.19P    2.82R    0.04  
Doncaster        31   40   +0      60.85     5.56     0.69     0.00     0.00     6.17     1.02P    0.84R    0.02  
Watford          30   39   -2      60.97     5.84    -2.20     0.00     0.00     6.90     0.95P    1.28R    0.04  
Derby            32   39   -7      55.86     5.34   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.08P    6.68R    0.14  
Preston          32   39  -11      55.85     5.25   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.07P    7.35R    0.19  
QPR              31   37   -6      55.43     5.56    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.11P    8.43R    0.27  
Scunthorpe       32   37  -19      52.28     5.04   -25.72     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   21.94R    1.36  
Ipswich          31   36   -8      54.64     5.48   -11.04     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.04P   10.77R    0.42  
Reading          31   35  -14      52.66     5.46   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   20.76R    1.41  
Sheff_Wed        32   34  -14      48.67     5.09   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    47.24R    4.20  
Plymouth         31   29  -14      44.96     5.28   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.19R   16.96  
Peterborough     32   24  -19      38.17     5.05   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.48R   74.91  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Charlton vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          32   66  +32      93.71     5.04    46.71    59.66    83.65    99.88    88.24P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     31   63  +28      90.28     5.37    37.93    26.19    60.72    99.01    73.11P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   62  +18      86.87     5.20    26.70     7.89    28.36    96.55    46.01P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         32   60  +21      83.48     5.22    27.88     3.18    13.15    90.23    32.13P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          30   56  +12      81.19     5.75    17.08     1.71     7.03    78.02    19.79P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     31   54  +23      80.33     5.58    31.56     1.31     6.29    77.18    26.62P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   52  +12      75.36     5.48    16.31     0.06     0.74    37.64     8.92P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   49   +3      69.75     5.50     2.89     0.00     0.03     8.98     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          31   43   +3      65.12     5.55     5.24     0.00     0.00     2.16     0.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   42   -9      60.46     5.48   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.41R    0.00  
Brentford        30   38   +0      60.23     5.62     0.72     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    0.45R    0.00  
Southampton      29   37  +17      68.82     6.07    30.15     0.00     0.03     9.82     3.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Carlisle         31   37   -2      56.28     5.47    -4.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.42R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    31   36   -6      54.42     5.42    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.11R    0.05  
Yeovil           32   35   -5      52.84     5.26    -7.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.73R    0.06  
Gillingham       32   33  -11      48.44     5.03   -16.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.30R    0.64  
Tranmere         31   33  -21      46.61     5.02   -31.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.91R    1.91  
Southend         31   32  -11      50.07     5.31   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.78R    0.38  
Oldham           29   32  -11      51.09     5.72   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.37R    0.39  
Hartlepool       31   32  -12      50.67     5.43   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.64R    0.41  
Exeter           32   31  -13      47.43     5.25   -17.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.27R    1.01  
Brighton         31   31  -14      48.87     5.44   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.33R    0.61  
Wycombe          32   27  -24      41.26     5.04   -32.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.43R   12.85  
Stockport        30   20  -30      33.52     5.03   -45.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.82R   81.68  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 February 2010, Rotherham vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             30   62  +36      95.80     5.23    56.12    86.81    99.44    99.99    99.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   57   +5      80.41     5.57     9.35     1.22    42.03    89.87    51.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          32   57   +5      77.83     5.15     7.37     0.45    22.67    81.47    35.36P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         31   54   +8      75.97     5.64     9.77     0.30    16.33    69.71    28.54P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            30   53  +12      76.73     5.82    14.44     0.54    21.35    74.56    35.06P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52   +9      72.42     5.01    13.01     0.03     4.35    48.00    16.59P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         28   48  +31      85.55     5.82    51.66    10.58    79.78    98.22    87.97P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   46   +2      71.58     6.14     5.23     0.06     5.66    40.63    13.32P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   46   +1      66.28     5.23     2.27     0.00     0.43    11.30     2.94P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            30   45   +8      71.93     5.95    15.75     0.02     6.19    46.58    17.55P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   44   +5      65.47     5.64     5.87     0.00     0.51    10.85     3.05P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          32   43   +2      63.46     5.23     3.78     0.00     0.07     4.29     1.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            30   43   +1      67.08     5.85     4.03     0.00     1.00    16.60     4.92P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                31   41   -1      61.62     5.61    -1.49     0.00     0.06     3.09     0.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            30   40   +2      62.20     5.76     2.67     0.00     0.11     4.39     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               31   36   -6      54.81     5.53    -8.44     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.20R    0.00  
Hereford             30   35   -7      55.56     5.69    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    0.19R    0.00  
Bradford             29   34   -8      52.68     5.80   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.61R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   33  -16      46.98     5.03   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.80R    0.01  
Macclesfield         29   31   -9      50.75     5.84   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.01R    0.01  
Cheltenham           30   30  -13      48.28     5.55   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.41R    0.05  
Torquay              31   28   -6      47.25     5.53    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.06R    0.08  
Grimsby              31   23  -22      36.19     4.91   -33.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.01R    5.40  
Darlington           28   15  -39      25.23     4.68   -64.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   94.45  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Altrincham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         30   66  +33      98.03     5.39    48.87    71.90    99.77    80.41P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          31   63  +30      92.33     5.11    43.58    21.12    98.13    46.69P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   60  +19      88.68     5.18    31.65     5.58    91.94    26.35P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   56  +13      82.10     5.42    21.77     0.44    55.95    10.78P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   55  +23      79.55     5.44    29.45     0.22    40.18     8.72P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      31   53  +25      81.47     5.14    37.87     0.47    56.64    15.28P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   53  +12      72.39     5.37    12.11     0.00     5.95     0.81P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          30   51  +12      80.35     5.53    23.32     0.25    43.70     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   46  +10      72.04     5.83    16.29     0.01     6.01     1.18P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         30   45  +11      66.73     5.66    11.47     0.00     1.01     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       31   45   -5      63.39     5.37    -8.11     0.00     0.13     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   41   +5      65.42     5.97     7.07     0.00     0.58     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             30   39   -4      58.83     5.59    -7.10     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   39   -4      55.41     5.07    -7.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   39  -12      53.33     4.88   -18.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Salisbury          31   36   -6      53.81     5.36   -10.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   36  -22      48.02     4.29   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.35R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   35   +3      56.22     5.49     4.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    33   30  -22      42.41     4.44   -30.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.82R    0.00  
Gateshead          32   28  -16      41.62     4.89   -25.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.59R    0.00  
Barrow             28   28  -16      47.19     5.94   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.69R    0.00  
Forest_Green       32   27  -27      41.16     4.91   -35.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.26R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     32   17  -43      24.63     3.88   -64.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   11.17  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.22     5.81   -28.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   88.83  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1