Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 21 February 2010 at 22:19:07 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 21 February 2010, Aston_Villa vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         27   61  +41      84.47     3.82    57.48    66.34    90.39    99.66    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   57  +39      80.64     4.21    53.19    23.84    64.83    97.39    99.38    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   55  +33      78.96     3.96    50.36     9.79    44.12    95.55    99.10    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   46  +22      66.17     4.31    30.70     0.00     0.22     2.34    28.61    79.46     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        26   46  +15      63.35     4.72    15.82     0.01     0.10     0.89    11.54    48.92     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   45  +16      65.94     4.24    25.31     0.00     0.09     1.33    23.88    78.42     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   45  +16      67.38     4.56    24.72     0.01     0.27     2.85    36.92    83.43     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   38   +1      56.05     4.53     3.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     5.71     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   37   +3      52.43     4.27     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.88     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      26   37   -3      54.31     4.70    -1.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     3.14     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           26   34   -3      48.33     4.53    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   34  -14      43.25     4.00   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.46R    0.00  
West_Ham        26   27   -5      41.44     4.20   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.68R    0.10  
Sunderland      26   26  -12      40.94     4.66   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.12R    0.25  
Wigan           26   25  -26      35.43     4.09   -38.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.26R    5.44  
Wolverhampton   26   24  -23      34.12     4.18   -33.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.98R    8.42  
Hull            27   24  -29      34.18     4.17   -36.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.16R    8.52  
Bolton          26   23  -20      34.71     4.17   -30.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.37R    6.49  
Burnley         26   23  -28      35.88     4.54   -35.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.05R    5.38  
Portsmouth      26   16  -23      27.43     4.24   -31.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.89R   65.40  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 21 February 2010, Bristol_City vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        32   66  +34      95.44     4.91    49.73    81.05    96.45   100.00    98.01P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     33   61  +24      84.63     4.84    32.45     3.96    28.88    99.82    55.27P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        32   60  +29      88.26     5.02    44.04    14.86    71.62    99.95    81.61P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   53   +7      74.16     5.18    10.22     0.03     0.98    79.92    18.30P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   49  +18      74.73     5.61    26.32     0.10     1.81    83.28    22.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        31   48   +7      70.16     5.59     9.41     0.00     0.25    53.32    10.49P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   47  +10      66.01     5.04    11.58     0.00     0.01    24.19     4.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   45   +1      65.26     5.28     2.51     0.00     0.00    19.08     2.77P    0.06R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    33   44   +6      63.33     5.00     8.19     0.00     0.00    11.15     2.07P    0.12R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   -1      61.78     5.52    -3.28     0.00     0.01     7.57     1.20P    0.48R    0.00  
Coventry         33   43   -8      60.23     5.04    -9.17     0.00     0.00     3.17     0.37P    0.97R    0.01  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      58.84     5.13   -10.02     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.26P    1.63R    0.03  
Bristol_City     32   41   -7      58.16     5.21    -9.69     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.17P    2.74R    0.04  
Doncaster        31   40   +0      60.77     5.56     0.59     0.00     0.00     5.85     1.02P    0.87R    0.01  
Watford          30   39   -2      60.97     5.83    -2.21     0.00     0.00     6.81     1.04P    1.24R    0.02  
Derby            32   39   -7      55.75     5.31   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.07P    6.59R    0.12  
Preston          32   39  -11      56.03     5.25   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.06P    6.87R    0.17  
QPR              31   37   -6      55.28     5.53    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.11P    8.65R    0.31  
Scunthorpe       32   37  -19      52.13     5.06   -26.03     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   23.25R    1.37  
Ipswich          31   36   -8      54.65     5.43   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.05P   10.40R    0.40  
Reading          31   35  -14      52.75     5.48   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   20.08R    1.34  
Sheff_Wed        32   34  -14      48.62     5.04   -21.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    47.19R    4.29  
Plymouth         31   29  -14      44.90     5.29   -20.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.47R   17.08  
Peterborough     32   24  -19      38.18     5.03   -26.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.39R   74.81  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Charlton vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          32   66  +32      93.75     5.01    46.82    59.89    84.18    99.89    88.88P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     31   63  +28      90.29     5.38    37.92    26.22    60.33    99.06    73.03P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   62  +18      86.82     5.19    26.62     7.62    27.98    96.45    45.40P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         32   60  +21      83.57     5.23    28.05     3.38    13.92    90.40    33.02P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          30   56  +12      81.13     5.74    17.02     1.58     6.90    77.21    19.35P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     31   54  +23      80.14     5.60    31.32     1.23     5.80    76.21    25.45P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   52  +12      75.48     5.49    16.52     0.07     0.81    38.71     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   49   +3      69.88     5.54     3.08     0.00     0.05     9.26     1.53P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          31   43   +3      65.15     5.58     5.32     0.00     0.00     2.29     0.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   42   -9      60.59     5.45   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.32R    0.00  
Brentford        30   38   +0      60.28     5.68     0.77     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.07P    0.44R    0.00  
Southampton      29   37  +17      68.87     6.10    30.23     0.00     0.04    10.01     3.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle         31   37   -2      56.23     5.45    -4.82     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.51R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    31   36   -6      54.44     5.38    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.03R    0.04  
Yeovil           32   35   -5      52.71     5.25    -7.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.93R    0.06  
Gillingham       32   33  -11      48.27     5.06   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.67R    0.78  
Tranmere         31   33  -21      46.65     5.02   -31.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.95R    1.94  
Southend         31   32  -11      50.14     5.33   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.49R    0.36  
Oldham           29   32  -11      50.99     5.72   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.48R    0.43  
Hartlepool       31   32  -12      50.74     5.46   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.18R    0.37  
Exeter           32   31  -13      47.40     5.22   -17.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.43R    1.04  
Brighton         31   31  -14      48.88     5.45   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.27R    0.54  
Wycombe          32   27  -24      41.25     5.03   -32.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.53R   12.48  
Stockport        30   20  -30      33.47     5.01   -45.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.72R   81.95  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Accrington_Stanley vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             30   62  +36      95.85     5.23    56.16    86.86    99.41   100.00    99.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   57   +5      80.48     5.61     9.43     1.15    41.19    90.01    51.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          32   57   +5      77.85     5.18     7.37     0.46    21.88    81.16    34.64P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         31   54   +8      75.86     5.63     9.66     0.29    15.23    68.73    27.46P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            29   52  +12      77.34     6.10    14.78     0.69    24.82    76.18    38.19P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   51   +9      72.47     5.26    12.52     0.03     5.26    47.61    16.66P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         28   48  +31      85.44     5.86    51.53    10.38    78.39    98.12    87.11P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   46   +2      71.65     6.11     5.33     0.11     5.56    40.76    13.35P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   46   +1      66.38     5.23     2.46     0.00     0.44    11.71     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            30   45   +8      71.96     5.94    15.80     0.02     6.14    46.10    17.37P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   44   +5      65.44     5.61     5.80     0.00     0.45    10.61     2.95P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          32   43   +2      63.44     5.22     3.73     0.00     0.07     4.16     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            30   43   +1      67.15     5.88     4.12     0.00     0.96    16.86     4.99P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                31   41   -1      61.60     5.62    -1.52     0.00     0.09     3.10     0.81P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            30   40   +2      62.16     5.82     2.65     0.00     0.12     4.35     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               31   36   -6      54.84     5.53    -8.39     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.16R    0.00  
Hereford             30   35   -7      55.58     5.74    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.08P    0.21R    0.00  
Bradford             29   34   -8      52.69     5.81   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.59R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   33  -16      46.83     5.03   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.00R    0.02  
Macclesfield         29   31   -9      50.72     5.83   -14.73     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.90R    0.01  
Cheltenham           30   30  -13      48.37     5.58   -18.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.40R    0.06  
Torquay              31   28   -6      47.31     5.52    -8.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.94R    0.09  
Grimsby              31   23  -22      36.10     4.91   -33.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.11R    5.40  
Darlington           28   15  -39      25.29     4.66   -64.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.68R   94.42  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Altrincham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         30   66  +33      98.13     5.35    49.14    72.36    99.79    80.88P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          31   63  +30      92.37     5.13    43.62    20.81    98.09    46.09P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   60  +19      88.74     5.15    31.72     5.50    92.47    26.78P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   56  +13      82.21     5.37    21.91     0.47    56.67    10.91P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   55  +23      79.59     5.41    29.53     0.19    40.27     8.71P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      31   53  +25      81.30     5.14    37.64     0.43    54.88    14.65P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   53  +12      72.33     5.36    12.02     0.00     5.88     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          30   51  +12      80.42     5.53    23.38     0.24    44.35     9.79P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   46  +10      72.09     5.84    16.35     0.00     6.01     1.09P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         30   45  +11      66.60     5.66    11.27     0.00     0.93     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       31   45   -5      63.39     5.35    -8.09     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   41   +5      65.54     6.01     7.22     0.00     0.55     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             30   39   -4      58.91     5.61    -6.94     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   39   -4      55.27     5.04    -7.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   39  -12      53.20     4.85   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Salisbury          31   36   -6      53.75     5.34   -10.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   36  -22      48.05     4.24   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.39R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   35   +3      56.21     5.44     4.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    33   30  -22      42.48     4.47   -30.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.59R    0.00  
Gateshead          32   28  -16      41.54     4.90   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.44R    0.00  
Barrow             28   28  -16      47.27     5.98   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.68R    0.00  
Forest_Green       32   27  -27      41.25     4.91   -35.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.56R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     32   17  -43      24.63     3.90   -64.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   10.60  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.08     5.75   -28.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   89.39  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1