Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 20 February 2010 at 22:19:09 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Arsenal vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         27   61  +41      84.69     3.81    57.88    67.24    90.80    99.74    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   57  +39      80.75     4.21    53.46    23.16    64.87    97.42    99.47    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   55  +33      79.09     3.92    50.52     9.57    43.72    96.02    99.31    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        25   45  +15      63.96     5.01    16.06     0.01     0.16     1.50    18.03    57.66     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   44  +16      65.99     4.53    24.97     0.00     0.15     1.82    28.75    79.09     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   43  +19      64.60     4.62    27.60     0.00     0.13     1.32    20.75    69.33     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   42  +13      66.49     4.76    22.82     0.01     0.15     2.17    32.53    79.85     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   38   +1      56.27     4.53     4.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59     7.35     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      25   37   -2      55.25     4.96    -0.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.57     5.97     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.87     4.53     2.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.66     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           26   34   -3      48.31     4.52    -6.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   31  -17      41.58     4.26   -27.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.58R    0.08  
West_Ham        26   27   -5      41.32     4.21   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.58R    0.13  
Sunderland      26   26  -12      40.89     4.69   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.26R    0.29  
Wigan           25   25  -23      36.71     4.39   -35.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.68R    3.77  
Wolverhampton   26   24  -23      34.28     4.15   -33.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.38R    8.40  
Hull            27   24  -29      34.12     4.14   -36.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.11R    9.55  
Bolton          25   23  -17      36.12     4.50   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.40R    4.39  
Burnley         25   23  -25      36.26     4.67   -34.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.51R    5.30  
Portsmouth      26   16  -23      27.38     4.22   -31.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.45R   68.09  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Blackpool vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        32   66  +34      95.42     4.87    49.66    72.05    95.48   100.00    97.42P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     33   61  +24      84.62     4.86    32.43     2.92    21.28    99.82    50.14P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        31   60  +30      90.62     5.28    46.68    24.95    81.45    99.99    87.93P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   53   +7      74.16     5.16    10.25     0.03     0.63    80.04    18.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   49  +18      74.69     5.58    26.21     0.05     1.02    83.59    21.84P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        31   48   +7      70.02     5.63     9.25     0.00     0.14    52.54    10.32P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   47  +10      66.00     5.05    11.52     0.00     0.01    24.24     4.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   45   +1      65.28     5.28     2.57     0.00     0.00    19.47     2.97P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    33   44   +6      63.38     4.98     8.26     0.00     0.00    11.28     2.26P    0.08R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   -1      61.84     5.55    -3.19     0.00     0.00     7.86     1.25P    0.40R    0.00  
Coventry         33   43   -8      60.25     5.04    -9.13     0.00     0.00     3.11     0.43P    0.93R    0.01  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      58.85     5.15   -10.02     0.00     0.00     2.00     0.25P    1.62R    0.02  
Doncaster        31   40   +0      60.76     5.51     0.53     0.00     0.00     5.78     0.98P    0.78R    0.02  
Watford          30   39   -2      60.91     5.84    -2.29     0.00     0.00     6.96     1.00P    1.23R    0.03  
Derby            32   39   -7      55.72     5.33   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.12P    6.57R    0.19  
Preston          32   39  -11      55.77     5.24   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.05P    7.25R    0.20  
Bristol_City     31   38   -8      55.54     5.44   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.07P    8.08R    0.32  
QPR              31   37   -6      55.44     5.49    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.14P    7.83R    0.30  
Scunthorpe       32   37  -19      52.35     5.07   -25.66     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   21.32R    1.24  
Ipswich          31   36   -8      54.66     5.41   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P   10.23R    0.42  
Reading          31   35  -14      52.76     5.50   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   19.95R    1.37  
Sheff_Wed        32   34  -14      48.65     5.06   -21.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   46.44R    4.15  
Plymouth         31   29  -14      45.04     5.33   -20.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.96R   16.71  
Peterborough     32   24  -19      38.17     5.05   -26.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.26R   75.01  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Charlton vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          32   66  +32      93.68     4.99    46.72    59.01    83.64    99.91    88.50P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     31   63  +28      90.35     5.41    38.01    27.01    60.68    99.10    72.96P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   62  +18      86.90     5.20    26.75     7.78    28.68    96.53    46.38P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         32   60  +21      83.46     5.23    27.87     3.16    13.15    90.10    31.74P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          30   56  +12      81.16     5.78    17.09     1.78     7.06    77.23    19.52P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     31   54  +23      80.21     5.55    31.42     1.19     5.98    76.56    26.23P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   52  +12      75.54     5.48    16.61     0.07     0.74    38.78     9.42P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   49   +3      69.77     5.57     2.91     0.01     0.05     9.33     1.53P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          31   43   +3      65.09     5.54     5.24     0.00     0.00     2.10     0.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   42   -9      60.49     5.46   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.34R    0.00  
Brentford        30   38   +0      60.21     5.69     0.70     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.08P    0.47R    0.00  
Southampton      29   37  +17      68.80     6.09    30.15     0.00     0.02     9.84     3.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         31   37   -2      56.27     5.47    -4.70     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.49R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    31   36   -6      54.28     5.40    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.44R    0.05  
Yeovil           32   35   -5      52.89     5.28    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.60R    0.07  
Gillingham       32   33  -11      48.29     5.05   -17.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.74R    0.77  
Tranmere         31   33  -21      46.59     4.99   -31.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.66R    1.99  
Southend         31   32  -11      50.07     5.32   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.91R    0.39  
Oldham           29   32  -11      51.20     5.73   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.57R    0.40  
Hartlepool       31   32  -12      50.70     5.46   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.57R    0.39  
Exeter           32   31  -13      47.47     5.26   -16.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.22R    1.02  
Brighton         31   31  -14      48.84     5.44   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.52R    0.56  
Wycombe          32   27  -24      41.33     5.03   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.89R   12.65  
Stockport        30   20  -30      33.51     5.09   -45.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.55R   81.70  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Accrington_Stanley vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             30   62  +36      95.85     5.24    56.17    87.06    99.37   100.00    99.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   57   +5      80.40     5.57     9.32     1.20    40.25    89.76    50.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          32   57   +5      77.81     5.17     7.32     0.39    21.55    80.90    34.26P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         31   54   +8      75.82     5.66     9.54     0.30    14.91    68.54    27.32P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            29   52  +12      77.50     6.14    15.01     0.74    25.94    76.72    39.25P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   51   +9      72.48     5.27    12.50     0.03     5.50    47.86    16.95P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         28   48  +31      85.42     5.88    51.57    10.17    78.31    98.00    87.22P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   46   +2      71.78     6.16     5.50     0.07     6.02    41.78    14.03P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   46   +1      66.31     5.18     2.32     0.00     0.40    11.37     2.89P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            30   45   +8      71.98     5.94    15.86     0.03     6.08    46.37    17.22P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   44   +5      65.32     5.62     5.64     0.00     0.41    10.32     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          32   43   +2      63.45     5.22     3.76     0.00     0.08     4.23     1.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            30   43   +1      67.05     5.89     3.97     0.00     1.02    16.26     4.76P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                31   41   -1      61.64     5.61    -1.44     0.00     0.05     3.01     0.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            30   40   +2      62.24     5.80     2.71     0.00     0.11     4.44     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               31   36   -6      54.86     5.54    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.18R    0.00  
Hereford             30   35   -7      55.52     5.72    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    0.22R    0.00  
Bradford             29   34   -8      52.76     5.79   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.55R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   33  -16      47.00     5.04   -25.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.65R    0.01  
Macclesfield         29   31   -9      50.77     5.86   -14.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.96R    0.02  
Cheltenham           30   30  -13      48.32     5.58   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.61R    0.02  
Torquay              31   28   -6      47.37     5.58    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.94R    0.07  
Grimsby              31   23  -22      36.13     4.91   -33.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.13R    5.14  
Darlington           28   15  -39      25.11     4.63   -64.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.74R   94.74  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Altrincham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         30   66  +33      98.21     5.37    49.20    73.26    99.82    81.61P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          31   63  +30      92.26     5.13    43.43    20.15    97.98    45.68P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   60  +19      88.75     5.17    31.74     5.36    92.31    26.69P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   56  +13      82.19     5.41    21.93     0.39    56.82    10.75P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   55  +23      79.50     5.43    29.42     0.19    39.91     8.41P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      31   53  +25      81.40     5.17    37.81     0.46    56.19    15.18P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   53  +12      72.29     5.32    11.97     0.01     5.64     0.78P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          30   51  +12      80.29     5.56    23.23     0.18    43.57     9.50P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   46  +10      72.07     5.82    16.37     0.00     6.07     1.11P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         30   45  +11      66.75     5.62    11.49     0.00     1.00     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       31   45   -5      63.54     5.37    -7.90     0.00     0.13     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   41   +5      65.44     5.99     7.09     0.00     0.57     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             30   39   -4      59.03     5.60    -6.74     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   39   -4      55.29     5.05    -7.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   39  -12      53.15     4.87   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Salisbury          31   36   -6      53.85     5.36   -10.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   36  -22      48.05     4.29   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.42R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   35   +3      56.22     5.44     4.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    33   30  -22      42.48     4.47   -30.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.29R    0.00  
Gateshead          32   28  -16      41.53     4.89   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.15R    0.00  
Barrow             28   28  -16      47.27     5.95   -24.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.43R    0.00  
Forest_Green       32   27  -27      41.08     4.88   -35.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.45R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     32   17  -43      24.58     3.86   -65.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   10.75  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.08     5.73   -28.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   89.25  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1