Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 19 February 2010 at 22:19:04 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 February 2010, Wigan vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         26   58  +39      83.64     4.06    56.65    46.47    83.33    99.36    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   57  +41      83.34     4.41    57.50    45.48    81.25    99.03    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   52  +31      78.78     4.10    51.78     8.03    34.90    95.11    98.96    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        25   45  +15      64.09     5.00    16.25     0.01     0.14     1.43    18.25    59.19     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   44  +16      65.97     4.54    24.95     0.01     0.14     1.66    28.64    79.01     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   43  +19      64.66     4.61    27.58     0.00     0.06     1.26    20.50    70.93     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   42  +13      66.62     4.71    23.00     0.01     0.16     2.14    33.26    81.06     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      25   37   -2      55.18     4.95    -0.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49     5.98     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   35   -1      53.45     4.81     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     3.05     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.87     4.57     1.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.75     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           25   31   -4      46.36     4.75    -7.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.41R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   31  -17      41.52     4.23   -27.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.54R    0.17  
Sunderland      25   26  -10      40.96     4.75   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.24R    0.53  
Wigan           25   25  -23      36.61     4.43   -35.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.42R    5.94  
West_Ham        25   24   -8      40.16     4.43   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.47R    0.72  
Wolverhampton   25   24  -21      34.96     4.43   -32.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.85R   10.59  
Hull            26   24  -26      35.23     4.41   -34.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.43R    9.54  
Bolton          25   23  -17      36.32     4.53   -26.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.11R    5.93  
Burnley         25   23  -25      36.22     4.65   -34.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.75R    7.70  
Portsmouth      25   16  -22      28.91     4.53   -29.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.78R   58.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 February 2010, Crystal_Palace vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        31   63  +31      94.59     5.10    47.94    68.18    94.12   100.00    96.40P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        31   60  +30      90.50     5.25    46.47    28.50    82.80    99.98    88.73P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     32   58  +23      83.46     5.09    32.11     2.90    17.93    99.40    47.73P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   50   +6      72.34     5.45     9.00     0.02     0.48    66.28    14.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   49  +20      77.83     5.77    31.30     0.40     4.34    91.81    28.49P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        30   47   +7      70.49     5.86     9.34     0.01     0.31    53.55    10.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   45   +1      65.41     5.27     2.73     0.00     0.00    18.69     2.68P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool        32   44   +8      64.87     5.28    10.33     0.00     0.00    18.10     3.26P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   44   +7      64.03     5.21     8.25     0.00     0.00    13.52     2.56P    0.06R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   43   +0      63.98     5.81    -1.16     0.00     0.01    14.36     2.26P    0.18R    0.00  
Doncaster        30   40   +1      62.50     5.84     2.09     0.00     0.00    10.55     1.69P    0.53R    0.01  
Coventry         32   40   -9      57.74     5.25   -11.52     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.12P    3.12R    0.09  
Derby            31   39   -6      57.29     5.58    -9.68     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.21P    4.27R    0.08  
Barnsley         31   39   -8      55.65     5.27   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.05P    7.09R    0.25  
Preston          31   39   -8      56.53     5.40   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.12P    5.70R    0.14  
Watford          29   38   -2      61.40     6.09    -2.18     0.00     0.00     7.99     1.12P    1.33R    0.03  
Bristol_City     31   38   -8      55.56     5.41   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.07P    7.80R    0.33  
Scunthorpe       31   36  -19      52.73     5.36   -25.61     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   20.32R    1.36  
Reading          30   35  -12      53.90     5.73   -17.40     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.04P   15.50R    1.01  
QPR              30   34   -7      53.33     5.76   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.05P   15.81R    1.02  
Sheff_Wed        31   34  -13      50.41     5.38   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   33.15R    2.57  
Ipswich          30   33   -9      52.72     5.71   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   19.43R    1.33  
Plymouth         30   28  -14      45.05     5.57   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   69.50R   17.77  
Peterborough     32   24  -19      38.30     5.01   -26.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.08R   74.00  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2010, Carlisle vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          31   66  +34      96.34     5.21    51.09    68.02    91.77    99.98    94.38P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     30   62  +28      92.05     5.54    40.19    26.36    71.88    99.55    80.74P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   59  +17      85.85     5.43    26.61     3.19    18.77    95.15    39.11P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         31   57  +19      82.37     5.47    26.81     1.32     8.36    87.19    28.05P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          29   53  +10      79.81     5.97    15.52     0.58     4.14    72.36    16.83P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         30   52  +13      77.87     5.72    19.06     0.16     1.92    60.94    16.04P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     30   51  +21      78.45     5.87    29.24     0.37     3.14    67.78    21.11P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   46   +1      68.34     5.77     1.21     0.00     0.03     7.95     1.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   30   42   -8      61.95     5.65   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.09P    0.20R    0.00  
Walsall          30   40   +2      63.46     5.86     4.20     0.00     0.00     2.01     0.46P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford        29   38   +1      61.34     5.96     1.48     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.18P    0.34R    0.00  
Carlisle         30   37   +0      57.32     5.74    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.83R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    30   36   -5      56.23     5.66    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    2.90R    0.00  
Yeovil           31   35   -3      53.74     5.48    -6.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.59R    0.01  
Southampton      28   34  +15      65.77     6.33    25.80     0.00     0.00     5.31     1.69P    0.09R    0.00  
Southend         30   32   -9      51.27     5.59   -13.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   15.15R    0.10  
Hartlepool       30   32  -10      52.36     5.73   -12.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.52R    0.07  
Oldham           28   32  -10      51.78     5.97   -16.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.13R    0.10  
Exeter           31   31  -12      50.24     5.51   -13.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.24R    0.16  
Gillingham       31   30  -12      46.77     5.32   -18.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.78R    0.66  
Brighton         30   30  -14      48.06     5.56   -20.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.98R    0.33  
Tranmere         30   30  -22      44.40     5.24   -33.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.25R    2.22  
Wycombe          31   24  -25      39.02     5.27   -34.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.48R   12.39  
Stockport        29   17  -31      30.69     5.19   -48.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.46R   83.94  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 19 February 2010, Bury vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             29   59  +34      94.90     5.49    55.07    80.87    98.86    99.98    99.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   57   +5      80.52     5.60     9.44     1.55    39.65    89.53    49.79P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          31   56   +5      78.81     5.39     8.24     0.99    27.02    83.96    39.23P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            29   52  +12      77.38     6.17    14.83     0.90    23.95    75.32    37.10P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   51   +9      72.53     5.25    12.61     0.03     4.84    47.02    16.19P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         30   51   +7      75.27     5.84    10.17     0.35    12.83    64.24    25.10P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         27   47  +31      86.07     6.18    52.04    15.17    79.09    97.84    87.19P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            29   44   +8      71.86     6.22    15.00     0.07     6.32    44.45    16.73P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            30   44   +7      67.39     5.92     8.76     0.01     1.27    18.56     5.66P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          31   43   +3      64.81     5.48     4.73     0.00     0.22     7.40     2.02P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            29   43   +3      67.65     6.01     4.57     0.00     1.25    18.66     5.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   +0      64.37     5.45     0.79     0.00     0.20     6.56     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +0      70.36     6.41     3.82     0.08     3.97    32.88    10.34P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            29   40   +4      65.11     6.01     6.79     0.00     0.51    10.80     3.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                30   38   -2      59.95     5.84    -2.63     0.00     0.02     1.90     0.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Hereford             29   35   -6      57.40     5.96    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.15P    0.12R    0.00  
Bradford             28   34   -6      53.92     6.09   -14.73     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.06P    0.38R    0.00  
Barnet               30   33   -8      52.11     5.75   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.80R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         30   32  -16      46.91     5.23   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.13R    0.05  
Macclesfield         28   30   -9      50.57     6.05   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.33R    0.03  
Torquay              31   28   -6      47.40     5.57    -8.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.82R    0.07  
Cheltenham           29   27  -15      45.75     5.84   -22.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.12R    0.19  
Grimsby              30   22  -22      36.58     5.16   -32.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.77R    5.56  
Darlington           27   15  -38      25.51     4.73   -64.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.51R   94.09  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2010, Altrincham vs Eastbourne_Boro; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         30   66  +33      98.25     5.38    49.27    73.42    99.79    81.82P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          31   63  +30      92.07     5.13    43.17    19.45    98.05    44.62P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   60  +19      88.73     5.18    31.73     5.43    92.34    26.68P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              30   56  +14      84.10     5.64    23.77     1.12    70.36    14.88P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   55  +23      79.32     5.41    29.13     0.14    39.20     8.55P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   53  +12      72.43     5.37    12.16     0.00     6.05     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          30   51  +12      80.40     5.52    23.43     0.22    45.35    10.11P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      30   50  +24      79.30     5.43    36.01     0.21    40.19    10.86P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   46  +10      72.03     5.85    16.26     0.00     6.28     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       30   45   -3      65.04     5.61    -5.57     0.00     0.32     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         29   44  +11      67.75     5.91    12.44     0.00     1.80     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             30   39   -4      58.82     5.59    -7.10     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   39   -4      55.17     5.04    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   39  -12      53.18     4.87   -18.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Wrexham            28   38   +3      63.13     6.23     4.18     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury          31   36   -6      53.64     5.32   -10.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   34   +3      57.08     5.75     5.03     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.07R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   33  -24      45.56     4.51   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.09R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    32   29  -22      42.29     4.68   -30.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.36R    0.00  
Gateshead          31   28  -14      44.08     5.25   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.15R    0.00  
Barrow             28   28  -16      47.51     6.02   -24.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.62R    0.00  
Forest_Green       31   26  -27      41.01     5.15   -36.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.32R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     32   17  -43      24.68     3.87   -64.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   11.03  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.27     5.79   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   88.97  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1