Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 18 February 2010 at 22:19:12 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 February 2010, Wigan vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         26   58  +39      83.67     4.05    56.71    47.64    83.84    99.38    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   57  +41      83.16     4.40    57.27    44.19    80.40    98.96    99.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   52  +31      78.74     4.13    51.64     8.14    35.27    94.95    98.93    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        25   45  +15      64.12     5.03    16.31     0.01     0.17     1.54    18.77    59.44     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   44  +16      65.99     4.56    25.00     0.01     0.11     1.72    28.72    79.26     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   43  +19      64.59     4.60    27.51     0.00     0.08     1.19    20.28    70.46     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   42  +13      66.56     4.71    22.90     0.00     0.13     2.26    32.81    80.62     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      25   37   -2      55.29     4.95    -0.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.56     6.15     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   35   -1      53.61     4.84     0.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     3.37     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.83     4.54     1.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.68     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           25   31   -4      46.34     4.76    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.42R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   31  -17      41.53     4.21   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.41R    0.20  
Sunderland      25   26  -10      41.00     4.80   -16.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.27R    0.60  
Wigan           25   25  -23      36.61     4.41   -35.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.61R    5.82  
West_Ham        25   24   -8      40.23     4.47   -13.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.25R    0.67  
Wolverhampton   25   24  -21      34.91     4.38   -32.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.07R   10.38  
Hull            26   24  -26      35.16     4.42   -34.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.20R    9.95  
Bolton          25   23  -17      36.31     4.49   -26.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.78R    5.72  
Burnley         25   23  -25      36.22     4.67   -34.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.41R    7.84  
Portsmouth      25   16  -22      28.95     4.55   -29.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.57R   58.81  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 February 2010, Crystal_Palace vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        31   63  +31      94.58     5.12    47.93    67.70    94.08   100.00    96.49P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        31   60  +30      90.56     5.25    46.61    28.84    82.93    99.97    88.85P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     32   58  +23      83.52     5.08    32.24     2.98    17.99    99.41    47.65P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   50   +6      72.27     5.47     8.94     0.02     0.40    65.94    14.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          30   49  +20      77.94     5.78    31.45     0.43     4.27    92.01    28.79P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        30   47   +7      70.30     5.84     9.11     0.02     0.28    52.47     9.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   45   +1      65.29     5.25     2.51     0.00     0.01    18.13     2.56P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        32   44   +8      64.96     5.28    10.43     0.00     0.01    18.86     3.55P    0.06R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   44   +7      64.11     5.21     8.39     0.00     0.00    14.09     2.51P    0.08R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   43   +0      63.99     5.84    -1.13     0.00     0.02    14.87     2.22P    0.20R    0.00  
Doncaster        30   40   +1      62.46     5.82     2.03     0.00     0.00    10.24     1.70P    0.50R    0.01  
Coventry         32   40   -9      57.53     5.25   -11.82     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.13P    3.41R    0.10  
Derby            31   39   -6      57.30     5.59    -9.67     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.15P    4.31R    0.10  
Barnsley         31   39   -8      55.64     5.27   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.06P    7.08R    0.28  
Preston          31   39   -8      56.54     5.37   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.09P    5.68R    0.15  
Watford          29   38   -2      61.37     6.13    -2.26     0.00     0.00     8.17     1.14P    1.33R    0.03  
Bristol_City     31   38   -8      55.53     5.45   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.09P    8.15R    0.34  
Scunthorpe       31   36  -19      52.75     5.39   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   20.64R    1.42  
Reading          30   35  -12      53.91     5.71   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.05P   15.39R    1.00  
QPR              30   34   -7      53.50     5.81   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.05P   15.32R    1.01  
Sheff_Wed        31   34  -13      50.44     5.34   -20.20     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   33.18R    2.66  
Ipswich          30   33   -9      52.54     5.66   -12.87     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.01P   19.91R    1.43  
Plymouth         30   28  -14      45.19     5.56   -20.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.87R   17.37  
Peterborough     32   24  -19      38.37     5.07   -26.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.83R   74.10  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2010, Carlisle vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          31   66  +34      96.38     5.17    51.14    68.38    91.99    99.98    94.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     30   62  +28      92.11     5.56    40.29    26.10    72.08    99.55    81.02P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   59  +17      85.80     5.42    26.55     3.13    18.40    95.38    38.67P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         31   57  +19      82.32     5.50    26.75     1.29     8.37    87.12    27.95P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          29   53  +10      79.74     5.99    15.35     0.61     4.08    71.48    16.16P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         30   52  +13      77.96     5.69    19.20     0.13     1.97    61.75    16.38P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     30   51  +21      78.40     5.84    29.18     0.36     3.09    67.68    21.54P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   46   +1      68.27     5.78     1.09     0.01     0.03     7.81     1.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   30   42   -8      62.04     5.67   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.10P    0.17R    0.00  
Walsall          30   40   +2      63.57     5.80     4.37     0.00     0.00     1.90     0.42P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford        29   38   +1      61.54     5.93     1.72     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.23P    0.27R    0.00  
Carlisle         30   37   +0      57.50     5.73    -3.06     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    1.71R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    30   36   -5      56.14     5.69    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    3.00R    0.01  
Yeovil           31   35   -3      53.70     5.46    -6.34     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    5.60R    0.01  
Southampton      28   34  +15      65.75     6.34    25.77     0.00     0.00     5.40     1.66P    0.13R    0.00  
Southend         30   32   -9      51.21     5.58   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.03R    0.09  
Hartlepool       30   32  -10      52.38     5.73   -12.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.41R    0.08  
Oldham           28   32  -10      51.91     5.88   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.19R    0.09  
Exeter           31   31  -12      50.28     5.49   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.74R    0.15  
Gillingham       31   30  -12      46.82     5.32   -17.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.36R    0.56  
Brighton         30   30  -14      47.78     5.56   -21.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.89R    0.32  
Tranmere         30   30  -22      44.40     5.19   -33.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.41R    1.93  
Wycombe          31   24  -25      39.00     5.27   -34.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.47R   11.87  
Stockport        29   17  -31      30.50     5.13   -48.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.54R   84.88  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 February 2010, Notts_County vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             29   59  +34      94.82     5.49    54.91    80.04    98.66    99.97    99.15P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          31   56   +5      78.90     5.42     8.34     0.98    27.02    83.75    39.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   54   +4      78.85     5.89     8.37     1.09    28.92    81.20    39.62P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            28   51  +12      78.67     6.42    16.25     1.65    31.10    79.76    43.53P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   51  +10      73.93     5.46    13.65     0.10     8.64    55.85    21.15P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         30   51   +7      75.34     5.88    10.32     0.29    13.06    63.22    24.99P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         27   47  +31      86.15     6.16    52.21    15.67    79.17    97.84    87.20P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            29   44   +8      71.78     6.22    14.92     0.07     5.83    42.92    15.93P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            30   44   +7      67.41     5.91     8.75     0.00     1.18    17.84     5.32P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          31   43   +3      64.92     5.49     4.85     0.00     0.23     7.34     2.10P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            29   43   +3      67.85     6.05     4.87     0.02     1.43    19.18     5.92P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   +0      64.38     5.46     0.81     0.00     0.16     6.17     1.59P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +0      70.40     6.46     3.86     0.08     4.06    32.19    10.17P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            29   40   +4      64.89     6.07     6.47     0.00     0.51     9.98     3.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                30   38   -2      60.00     5.85    -2.49     0.00     0.03     1.90     0.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford             29   35   -6      57.29     5.97    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.17P    0.12R    0.00  
Bradford             28   34   -6      53.88     6.05   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.06P    0.35R    0.00  
Barnet               30   33   -8      52.02     5.69   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.70R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   32  -16      46.94     5.19   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.81R    0.06  
Macclesfield         28   30   -9      50.58     6.06   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.09R    0.03  
Torquay              30   27   -6      47.01     5.70    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.66R    0.11  
Cheltenham           29   27  -15      45.80     5.80   -22.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.05R    0.17  
Grimsby              30   22  -22      36.39     5.13   -33.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.75R    5.76  
Darlington           27   15  -38      25.55     4.74   -64.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.45R   93.87  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2010, Altrincham vs Eastbourne_Boro; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         30   66  +33      98.03     5.44    48.92    72.03    99.78    80.70P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          31   63  +30      92.21     5.15    43.38    20.61    98.19    45.64P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   60  +19      88.71     5.18    31.69     5.63    92.64    26.99P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              30   56  +14      84.06     5.62    23.68     1.10    70.04    14.75P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   55  +23      79.44     5.44    29.30     0.19    40.35     8.69P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   53  +12      72.30     5.35    11.94     0.00     5.75     0.83P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          30   51  +12      80.37     5.54    23.35     0.22    44.85     9.99P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      30   50  +24      79.27     5.41    35.98     0.22    39.92    10.83P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   46  +10      72.00     5.87    16.29     0.00     6.17     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       30   45   -3      64.95     5.61    -5.69     0.00     0.35     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         29   44  +11      67.77     5.89    12.45     0.00     1.69     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             30   39   -4      58.78     5.62    -7.16     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   39   -4      55.25     5.06    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   39  -12      53.20     4.89   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Wrexham            28   38   +3      63.26     6.21     4.34     0.00     0.27     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury          31   36   -6      53.73     5.34   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   34   +3      57.16     5.73     5.21     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   33  -24      45.47     4.48   -30.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.11R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    32   29  -22      42.26     4.67   -30.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.55R    0.00  
Gateshead          31   28  -14      44.13     5.24   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.82R    0.00  
Barrow             28   28  -16      47.41     5.98   -24.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.04R    0.00  
Forest_Green       31   26  -27      41.03     5.16   -36.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.10R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic     32   17  -43      24.70     3.86   -64.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   11.13  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.32     5.80   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   88.86  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1