Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 17 February 2010 at 22:18:56 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 February 2010, Wigan vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         26   58  +39      83.68     4.05    56.76    46.75    83.36    99.37    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   57  +41      83.33     4.39    57.54    45.05    80.76    98.99    99.84    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   52  +31      78.85     4.09    51.94     8.17    35.43    95.12    99.05    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        25   45  +15      64.07     5.00    16.24     0.01     0.11     1.46    18.08    59.11     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   44  +16      65.96     4.53    24.88     0.01     0.12     1.67    28.43    79.15     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   43  +19      64.59     4.61    27.54     0.00     0.06     1.25    20.52    70.47     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   42  +13      66.61     4.75    23.00     0.01     0.16     2.13    33.40    81.12     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      25   37   -2      55.34     4.98    -0.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.56     6.41     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   35   -1      53.40     4.80    -0.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     2.99     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.83     4.58     1.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.70     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           25   31   -4      46.43     4.76    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.35R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   31  -17      41.48     4.21   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.42R    0.16  
Sunderland      25   26  -10      40.99     4.76   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.14R    0.60  
Wigan           25   25  -23      36.53     4.39   -35.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.67R    5.93  
West_Ham        25   24   -8      40.22     4.48   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.44R    0.79  
Wolverhampton   25   24  -21      35.04     4.39   -32.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.86R    9.98  
Hull            26   24  -26      35.15     4.43   -34.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.02R   10.03  
Bolton          25   23  -17      36.15     4.50   -26.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.85R    6.28  
Burnley         25   23  -25      36.17     4.65   -34.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.97R    8.03  
Portsmouth      25   16  -22      29.00     4.55   -29.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.27R   58.20  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 February 2010, Crystal_Palace vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        31   63  +31      94.65     5.07    48.12    68.48    94.35   100.00    96.59P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        31   60  +30      90.55     5.22    46.59    28.13    82.96    99.97    88.83P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     32   58  +23      83.50     5.11    32.20     2.98    17.68    99.41    47.18P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   50   +6      72.15     5.43     8.78     0.01     0.37    65.25    14.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          30   49  +20      77.78     5.81    31.24     0.39     4.31    91.54    28.61P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        30   47   +7      70.47     5.89     9.37     0.01     0.30    53.75    10.21P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   45   +1      65.40     5.30     2.70     0.00     0.01    19.08     2.87P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool        32   44   +8      64.87     5.26    10.33     0.00     0.01    17.97     3.19P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   44   +7      64.11     5.24     8.38     0.00     0.01    14.04     2.68P    0.07R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   43   +0      63.94     5.77    -1.20     0.00     0.01    14.02     2.12P    0.17R    0.00  
Doncaster        30   40   +1      62.56     5.84     2.20     0.00     0.00    10.71     1.76P    0.49R    0.01  
Coventry         32   40   -9      57.68     5.26   -11.63     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.14P    3.39R    0.12  
Derby            31   39   -6      57.23     5.55    -9.80     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.17P    4.32R    0.08  
Barnsley         31   39   -8      55.63     5.25   -15.02     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.04P    7.01R    0.28  
Preston          31   39   -8      56.54     5.40   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.07P    5.63R    0.14  
Watford          29   38   -2      61.48     6.12    -2.07     0.00     0.00     8.46     1.28P    1.28R    0.03  
Bristol_City     31   38   -8      55.59     5.49   -12.14     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.08P    8.01R    0.34  
Scunthorpe       31   36  -19      52.77     5.36   -25.56     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   20.12R    1.45  
Reading          30   35  -12      53.85     5.70   -17.49     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P   15.27R    0.98  
QPR              30   34   -7      53.47     5.78   -11.22     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P   15.39R    0.88  
Sheff_Wed        31   34  -13      50.32     5.33   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   33.49R    2.66  
Ipswich          30   33   -9      52.52     5.72   -12.94     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P   20.21R    1.44  
Plymouth         30   28  -14      45.18     5.61   -20.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.98R   17.55  
Peterborough     32   24  -19      38.30     5.06   -26.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.10R   74.05  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2010, Carlisle vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          31   66  +34      96.49     5.20    51.32    68.60    92.19    99.98    94.72P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     30   62  +28      92.10     5.54    40.28    25.83    71.67    99.58    80.97P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   59  +17      85.85     5.45    26.61     3.18    18.80    95.37    39.05P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         31   57  +19      82.33     5.48    26.71     1.17     8.30    87.18    28.19P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          29   53  +10      79.78     5.99    15.48     0.67     4.03    72.16    16.24P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         30   52  +13      77.84     5.74    19.01     0.17     1.95    60.85    16.44P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     30   51  +21      78.34     5.89    29.10     0.38     3.03    67.62    20.59P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   46   +1      68.21     5.75     0.96     0.00     0.01     8.13     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   30   42   -8      61.95     5.72   -11.48     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.10P    0.23R    0.00  
Walsall          30   40   +2      63.44     5.82     4.20     0.00     0.00     1.84     0.41P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford        29   38   +1      61.36     5.95     1.45     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.18P    0.32R    0.00  
Carlisle         30   37   +0      57.49     5.74    -3.09     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04P    1.77R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    30   36   -5      56.28     5.65    -7.84     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    2.76R    0.00  
Yeovil           31   35   -3      53.60     5.43    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.81R    0.02  
Southampton      28   34  +15      65.72     6.31    25.67     0.00     0.01     5.43     1.71P    0.10R    0.00  
Southend         30   32   -9      51.21     5.54   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.83R    0.09  
Hartlepool       30   32  -10      52.32     5.77   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.93R    0.08  
Oldham           28   32  -10      51.84     5.89   -16.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.54R    0.08  
Exeter           31   31  -12      50.26     5.54   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.02R    0.16  
Gillingham       31   30  -12      46.74     5.32   -18.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.33R    0.73  
Brighton         30   30  -14      48.01     5.58   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.55R    0.35  
Tranmere         30   30  -22      44.45     5.23   -33.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.11R    2.23  
Wycombe          31   24  -25      39.09     5.26   -34.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.17R   12.49  
Stockport        29   17  -31      30.79     5.20   -48.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.47R   83.78  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 February 2010, Notts_County vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             29   59  +34      94.83     5.47    54.92    80.67    98.80    99.99    99.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          31   56   +5      78.86     5.40     8.32     0.86    27.24    83.63    39.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   54   +4      78.73     5.88     8.19     1.01    28.26    80.63    38.60P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            28   51  +12      78.79     6.35    16.49     1.69    31.98    80.47    44.65P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   51  +10      73.90     5.45    13.63     0.12     8.70    55.81    21.40P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         30   51   +7      75.29     5.84    10.27     0.36    12.91    63.03    24.55P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         27   47  +31      86.01     6.15    51.99    15.15    78.73    97.75    87.05P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            29   44   +8      71.74     6.20    14.89     0.05     5.99    42.88    16.05P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            30   44   +7      67.42     5.91     8.80     0.01     1.20    17.99     5.41P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          31   43   +3      64.85     5.47     4.80     0.00     0.20     6.93     1.96P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            29   43   +3      67.75     6.03     4.70     0.01     1.25    18.83     5.52P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   +0      64.52     5.46     1.03     0.00     0.16     6.69     1.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +0      70.34     6.43     3.79     0.08     3.97    31.96     9.94P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            29   40   +4      65.07     6.08     6.72     0.00     0.57    10.75     3.58P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                30   38   -2      59.92     5.90    -2.70     0.00     0.04     1.79     0.45P    0.03R    0.00  
Hereford             29   35   -6      57.09     5.97    -8.14     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.14P    0.13R    0.00  
Bradford             28   34   -6      53.90     6.06   -14.74     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.36R    0.00  
Barnet               30   33   -8      52.10     5.70   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.68R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   32  -16      47.01     5.25   -26.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.68R    0.04  
Macclesfield         28   30   -9      50.63     6.11   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.24R    0.04  
Torquay              30   27   -6      47.05     5.74    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.67R    0.12  
Cheltenham           29   27  -15      45.79     5.82   -22.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.78R    0.23  
Grimsby              30   22  -22      36.51     5.08   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.99R    5.66  
Darlington           27   15  -38      25.56     4.72   -64.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.45R   93.90  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2010, Altrincham vs Eastbourne_Boro; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         30   66  +33      98.17     5.43    49.14    72.67    99.76    81.43P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          31   63  +30      92.15     5.17    43.32    20.14    98.06    45.55P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   60  +19      88.75     5.16    31.74     5.38    92.70    26.87P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              30   56  +14      84.08     5.64    23.75     1.21    70.21    14.57P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   31   55  +23      79.42     5.43    29.24     0.17    39.94     8.64P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   53  +12      72.36     5.37    12.02     0.00     6.09     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          30   51  +12      80.37     5.49    23.42     0.21    44.95     9.68P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      30   50  +24      79.30     5.42    36.00     0.21    40.16    10.82P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   46  +10      71.86     5.80    16.06     0.00     5.77     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       30   45   -3      64.98     5.58    -5.65     0.00     0.32     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         29   44  +11      67.77     5.92    12.46     0.00     1.77     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             30   39   -4      58.87     5.59    -7.02     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   39   -4      55.28     5.03    -7.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   39  -12      53.24     4.83   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Wrexham            28   38   +3      63.21     6.21     4.28     0.00     0.24     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury          31   36   -6      53.81     5.31   -10.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   34   +3      57.14     5.75     5.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   33  -24      45.48     4.49   -30.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.98R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    32   29  -22      42.23     4.69   -30.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.64R    0.00  
Gateshead          31   28  -14      44.13     5.24   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.65R    0.00  
Barrow             28   28  -16      47.40     5.93   -24.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.58R    0.00  
Forest_Green       31   26  -27      40.92     5.14   -36.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.83R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     32   17  -43      24.64     3.86   -64.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   10.90  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.23     5.75   -28.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   89.09  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1