Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 12 February 2010 at 22:18:47 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 10 February 2010, Arsenal vs Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         26   58  +39      83.71     4.05    57.01    47.62    84.10    99.34    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   57  +41      83.27     4.43    57.39    44.63    80.66    98.94    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   52  +31      78.74     4.11    51.59     7.69    34.63    94.61    98.93    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   44  +16      65.87     4.55    24.77     0.01     0.12     1.53    27.29    77.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        24   44  +15      64.40     5.29    16.19     0.02     0.24     2.10    20.97    60.83     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   43  +19      64.66     4.60    27.68     0.00     0.08     1.29    20.52    70.70     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   42  +13      66.51     4.73    22.84     0.02     0.17     2.18    31.83    80.56     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      25   37   -2      55.24     4.96    -0.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.55     6.19     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   35   -1      53.43     4.80     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     2.94     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.96     4.55     2.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   31  -17      41.58     4.25   -27.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.57R    0.22  
Stoke           24   30   -4      46.76     5.07    -7.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.54R    0.02  
Sunderland      25   26  -10      40.94     4.78   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.69R    0.61  
West_Ham        25   24   -8      40.15     4.49   -14.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.10R    0.78  
Wolverhampton   25   24  -21      35.00     4.39   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.87R   10.06  
Wigan           24   24  -23      37.65     4.78   -34.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.41R    4.70  
Hull            26   24  -26      35.18     4.42   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.72R    9.63  
Burnley         25   23  -25      36.17     4.64   -34.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.67R    7.73  
Bolton          24   22  -17      36.37     4.85   -27.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.99R    6.82  
Portsmouth      25   16  -22      28.85     4.52   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.45R   59.43  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2010, Cardiff vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Brom        30   59  +30      90.87     5.58    46.40    32.11    79.15    99.94    86.32P    0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        29   59  +28      94.19     5.57    45.88    61.48    89.98    99.98    93.96P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     30   55  +23      84.54     5.56    34.15     5.58    24.16    99.28    51.82P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   48  +20      78.11     6.08    31.11     0.75     5.56    90.77    28.92P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          29   48   +6      72.92     5.91     8.94     0.07     0.85    67.62    15.06P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        28   43   +3      68.80     6.41     4.85     0.01     0.20    40.40     7.23P    0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   43   +2      66.68     6.13     2.78     0.00     0.06    27.74     4.59P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        30   42   +0      64.54     5.79     0.68     0.00     0.01    16.39     2.41P    0.14R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    30   41   +8      64.99     5.74    11.15     0.00     0.02    19.84     4.06P    0.11R    0.00  
Blackpool        30   40   +6      63.49     5.79     8.06     0.00     0.00    13.79     2.37P    0.26R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   39   -5      59.99     5.88    -9.25     0.00     0.00     4.25     0.54P    1.69R    0.02  
Watford          29   38   -2      61.30     6.08    -2.28     0.00     0.00     7.64     1.07P    1.21R    0.03  
Preston          29   38   -6      58.49     5.96   -10.53     0.00     0.00     2.72     0.33P    3.22R    0.04  
Bristol_City     29   37   -6      57.55     5.98    -9.86     0.00     0.00     2.16     0.33P    4.36R    0.11  
Coventry         30   37   -7      57.04     5.72   -10.28     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.18P    4.74R    0.15  
Derby            30   36   -8      55.00     5.77   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.12P    8.93R    0.19  
Doncaster        28   34   -2      57.58     6.30    -3.34     0.00     0.00     2.85     0.42P    4.60R    0.16  
QPR              29   34   -6      54.98     6.01   -10.04     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.11P    9.59R    0.30  
Sheff_Wed        30   34  -11      52.29     5.66   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   19.49R    0.68  
Ipswich          29   33   -7      54.66     6.05    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.11P   11.26R    0.54  
Scunthorpe       29   33  -16      52.64     5.87   -21.97     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P   19.73R    1.15  
Reading          29   32  -14      50.60     5.85   -22.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   31.43R    2.16  
Plymouth         28   24  -16      41.83     5.91   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.22R   27.40  
Peterborough     30   21  -20      37.10     5.46   -29.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.92R   67.06  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2010, Brighton vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          30   63  +33      95.41     5.38    51.22    45.38    84.74    99.93    89.66P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     28   61  +29      96.11     5.97    44.71    48.95    84.24    99.84    89.67P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         30   57  +20      84.18     5.72    28.62     1.93    10.34    91.57    30.58P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       29   55  +16      85.90     5.93    27.66     2.89    14.55    94.15    35.88P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          28   52  +10      79.40     6.25    14.24     0.46     2.79    68.18    14.39P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   49  +12      76.87     5.91    19.00     0.08     0.86    54.33    13.64P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     28   47  +20      78.13     6.41    29.67     0.31     2.42    64.51    20.44P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   46   +6      71.04     6.04     8.41     0.00     0.06    18.14     3.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   39   -9      59.47     5.91   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    0.99R    0.00  
Walsall          28   37   +2      62.24     6.18     2.75     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.34P    0.24R    0.00  
Brentford        28   37   +1      62.79     6.17     2.97     0.00     0.00     1.80     0.40P    0.22R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    29   35   -5      55.84     5.85    -9.14     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    3.68R    0.01  
Southampton      28   34  +15      65.71     6.35    25.72     0.00     0.00     5.31     1.55P    0.12R    0.00  
Yeovil           29   34   -2      56.13     5.96    -4.37     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    3.12R    0.01  
Carlisle         28   34   -4      55.59     6.21    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.85R    0.01  
Hartlepool       30   32  -10      52.47     5.70   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.37R    0.05  
Southend         29   31   -9      52.38     5.81   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.38R    0.07  
Exeter           30   31  -11      51.21     5.73   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.14R    0.08  
Brighton         29   30  -13      48.64     5.81   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.40R    0.22  
Oldham           27   29  -11      49.65     6.12   -18.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.60R    0.25  
Gillingham       30   29  -12      46.61     5.54   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.63R    0.64  
Tranmere         29   29  -22      44.13     5.43   -34.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.51R    2.13  
Wycombe          30   23  -25      38.70     5.42   -35.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.24R   11.37  
Stockport        28   16  -31      29.84     5.26   -50.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.51R   85.16  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 12 February 2010, Burton_Albion vs Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             29   59  +34      94.81     5.43    54.94    72.54    98.35    99.98    98.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          30   56   +6      80.53     5.61     9.74     1.52    32.81    88.85    45.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 29   54   +5      80.18     6.12     9.34     1.54    32.58    85.42    43.46P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            27   48  +11      77.18     6.63    15.41     0.92    20.08    72.57    33.86P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   48   +8      72.37     5.74    11.75     0.06     4.51    44.66    15.00P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         29   48   +6      73.68     6.10     9.22     0.18     7.59    52.13    18.29P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         26   46  +31      88.43     6.26    55.75    22.89    84.73    98.84    90.92P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            28   44  +10      73.95     6.45    18.21     0.14     9.46    56.76    22.90P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          31   43   +3      64.97     5.48     4.99     0.00     0.14     7.57     2.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   +1      65.52     5.72     1.43     0.00     0.37     9.84     2.56P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   42   +1      72.97     6.92     6.21     0.20     7.87    47.58    16.37P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   40   +2      66.01     6.35     3.52     0.01     0.70    13.67     4.04P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            28   38   +4      65.71     6.33     8.57     0.00     0.60    13.15     3.94P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                30   38   -2      60.03     5.88    -2.48     0.00     0.03     1.91     0.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale            28   37   +3      62.59     6.29     4.57     0.00     0.18     5.72     1.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford             27   33   -6      55.17     6.33   -13.53     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.08P    0.23R    0.00  
Hereford             27   32   -6      56.04     6.43    -9.30     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.18P    0.20R    0.00  
Barnet               29   32   -8      53.03     5.97   -11.17     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.42R    0.00  
Macclesfield         27   29   -9      51.00     6.31   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.46R    0.03  
Lincoln_City         28   29  -16      45.51     5.64   -27.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.49R    0.10  
Torquay              29   27   -5      48.82     5.94    -7.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.39R    0.08  
Cheltenham           28   26  -15      45.71     6.03   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    6.61R    0.21  
Grimsby              28   20  -22      34.71     5.38   -37.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.05R   10.70  
Darlington           26   15  -36      25.97     4.86   -64.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.15R   88.86  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2010, Ebbsfleet_United vs Histon; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          30   63  +31      93.85     5.42    44.88    31.06    98.89    52.73P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         28   60  +30      95.95     5.96    47.85    48.99    99.11    64.48P    0.00     0.00  
York               29   59  +20      92.13     5.64    35.44    18.07    97.23    38.50P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   29   52  +23      78.40     5.91    28.18     0.26    38.37     7.86P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              28   52  +13      82.64     6.22    22.60     1.16    63.40    12.48P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          31   50  +10      70.21     5.56     9.29     0.00     3.98     0.56P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      29   49  +24      80.02     5.74    36.36     0.34    50.87    13.86P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          29   48  +10      78.63     5.83    21.13     0.11    37.13     7.55P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      29   43   +9      71.43     6.08    16.98     0.00     7.03     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       29   42   -4      62.97     5.86    -7.28     0.00     0.30     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         27   41   +9      68.05     6.43    11.18     0.00     3.16     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           30   39   -1      59.02     5.66    -3.21     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Histon             29   39   -2      59.36     5.80    -6.53     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            28   38   +3      63.62     6.22     4.81     0.00     0.42     0.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    32   36  -13      51.88     5.20   -19.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   33   +3      57.17     6.02     4.59     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Salisbury          29   30   -9      50.48     5.84   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.83R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -25      42.72     4.66   -33.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.87R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    30   29  -18      44.22     5.18   -28.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.36R    0.00  
Barrow             26   28  -13      50.31     6.56   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.67R    0.00  
Forest_Green       30   26  -26      41.13     5.28   -37.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.15R    0.02  
Gateshead          29   25  -14      43.55     5.80   -21.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.90R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     31   17  -41      25.93     4.20   -63.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.65R    8.46  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.19     5.83   -28.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   91.52  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1