Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 11 February 2010 at 22:18:46 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 10 February 2010, Arsenal vs Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         26   58  +39      83.80     4.06    57.12    47.90    84.10    99.31    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   57  +41      83.30     4.40    57.48    44.28    80.70    99.03    99.85    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   52  +31      78.82     4.11    51.76     7.79    34.67    94.99    98.95    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   44  +16      65.91     4.53    24.80     0.01     0.10     1.53    27.77    78.35     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        24   44  +15      64.32     5.29    16.05     0.02     0.20     1.88    20.30    60.35     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   43  +19      64.62     4.62    27.63     0.00     0.10     1.20    20.40    70.65     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   42  +13      66.53     4.68    22.84     0.00     0.13     2.05    32.13    80.58     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      25   37   -2      55.22     4.96    -0.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.48     6.11     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   35   -1      53.52     4.82     0.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20     3.13     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.89     4.57     2.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   31  -17      41.52     4.23   -27.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.64R    0.20  
Stoke           24   30   -4      46.71     5.07    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.49R    0.01  
Sunderland      25   26  -10      40.88     4.77   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.92R    0.63  
West_Ham        25   24   -8      40.27     4.49   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.62R    0.73  
Wolverhampton   25   24  -21      34.92     4.34   -32.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.56R   10.18  
Wigan           24   24  -23      37.63     4.77   -35.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.45R    4.86  
Hull            26   24  -26      35.20     4.45   -34.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.52R    9.71  
Burnley         25   23  -25      36.25     4.66   -34.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.72R    7.62  
Bolton          24   22  -17      36.18     4.79   -27.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.00R    7.33  
Portsmouth      25   16  -22      28.92     4.53   -29.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.08R   58.72  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2010, Cardiff vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Brom        30   59  +30      90.97     5.56    46.57    33.40    79.94    99.96    86.96P    0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        29   59  +28      94.10     5.59    45.82    60.47    89.79   100.00    93.77P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     30   55  +23      84.43     5.58    33.98     5.18    23.43    99.16    51.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   48  +20      78.13     6.07    31.16     0.87     5.80    91.03    29.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          29   48   +6      72.93     5.86     8.95     0.06     0.73    68.34    15.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        28   43   +3      68.63     6.31     4.61     0.01     0.21    39.45     6.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   43   +2      66.70     6.14     2.84     0.00     0.06    28.05     4.73P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        30   42   +0      64.43     5.75     0.53     0.00     0.01    15.62     2.29P    0.18R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    30   41   +8      65.00     5.73    11.10     0.00     0.01    20.11     3.95P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackpool        30   40   +6      63.54     5.81     8.15     0.00     0.01    14.38     2.47P    0.25R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   39   -5      59.89     5.86    -9.42     0.00     0.00     4.19     0.48P    1.77R    0.03  
Watford          29   38   -2      61.22     6.08    -2.40     0.00     0.00     7.49     1.05P    1.25R    0.03  
Preston          29   38   -6      58.59     5.98   -10.41     0.00     0.00     2.93     0.38P    3.22R    0.05  
Bristol_City     29   37   -6      57.45     5.96   -10.05     0.00     0.00     2.09     0.29P    4.58R    0.13  
Coventry         30   37   -7      57.06     5.71   -10.28     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.17P    4.57R    0.12  
Derby            30   36   -8      55.06     5.77   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.07P    9.16R    0.21  
Doncaster        28   34   -2      57.56     6.30    -3.34     0.00     0.00     2.86     0.48P    4.63R    0.16  
QPR              29   34   -6      55.02     6.07   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.12P    9.84R    0.36  
Sheff_Wed        30   34  -11      52.46     5.65   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P   18.52R    0.71  
Ipswich          29   33   -7      54.70     5.98    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.09P   10.83R    0.48  
Scunthorpe       29   33  -16      52.67     5.92   -21.92     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.02P   20.28R    1.15  
Reading          29   32  -14      50.65     5.90   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   31.36R    2.42  
Plymouth         28   24  -16      41.84     5.88   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.63R   27.40  
Peterborough     30   21  -20      37.19     5.50   -29.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.77R   66.74  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2010, Brighton vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          30   63  +33      95.35     5.43    51.17    45.12    84.34    99.92    89.34P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     28   61  +29      96.11     5.98    44.69    48.92    84.17    99.87    89.51P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         30   57  +20      84.33     5.70    28.84     2.18    10.71    91.91    31.35P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       29   55  +16      85.95     5.87    27.71     2.87    14.84    94.36    36.34P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          28   52  +10      79.47     6.24    14.31     0.52     2.80    68.04    14.27P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   49  +12      76.88     5.96    19.05     0.07     0.86    54.40    13.48P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     28   47  +20      78.11     6.37    29.67     0.33     2.20    64.17    19.82P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   46   +6      71.13     6.03     8.54     0.01     0.08    18.32     3.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   39   -9      59.61     5.88   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.03P    0.80R    0.00  
Walsall          28   37   +2      62.33     6.23     2.92     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.37P    0.31R    0.00  
Brentford        28   37   +1      62.76     6.17     2.90     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.41P    0.23R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    29   35   -5      55.82     5.85    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    3.50R    0.00  
Southampton      28   34  +15      65.62     6.30    25.59     0.00     0.00     4.99     1.57P    0.09R    0.00  
Yeovil           29   34   -2      56.12     5.99    -4.40     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.11R    0.01  
Carlisle         28   34   -4      55.72     6.17    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.34R    0.01  
Hartlepool       30   32  -10      52.32     5.72   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.76R    0.06  
Southend         29   31   -9      52.41     5.88   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.45R    0.05  
Exeter           30   31  -11      51.14     5.75   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.01R    0.10  
Brighton         29   30  -13      48.58     5.74   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.13R    0.18  
Oldham           27   29  -11      49.61     6.11   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.42R    0.26  
Gillingham       30   29  -12      46.45     5.54   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.24R    0.70  
Tranmere         29   29  -22      44.08     5.41   -34.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.74R    2.12  
Wycombe          30   23  -25      38.65     5.39   -35.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.37R   11.52  
Stockport        28   16  -31      29.85     5.29   -50.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.50R   84.99  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2010, Bournemouth vs Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             29   59  +34      94.80     5.47    54.90    72.46    98.32    99.97    98.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          30   56   +6      80.42     5.66     9.58     1.61    33.08    88.16    45.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 29   54   +5      80.15     6.08     9.28     1.57    33.17    85.31    44.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            27   48  +11      77.17     6.62    15.44     0.96    20.92    72.14    34.60P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   48   +8      72.27     5.70    11.58     0.04     4.66    43.88    14.77P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         29   48   +6      73.77     6.11     9.37     0.16     8.00    52.82    18.84P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         26   46  +31      88.41     6.21    55.75    22.84    85.08    98.96    91.23P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          30   43   +6      67.53     5.79     9.87     0.00     0.73    17.73     5.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   43   +2      67.81     6.01     3.95     0.01     1.13    18.71     5.28P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   42   +1      73.05     6.99     6.37     0.29     8.45    48.04    16.96P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   41   +7      70.98     6.74    13.01     0.06     4.81    38.41    13.84P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   40   +2      66.17     6.31     3.77     0.01     0.78    13.92     4.18P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            28   38   +4      65.74     6.30     8.68     0.00     0.63    13.31     3.96P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   37   +3      62.92     6.29     5.05     0.00     0.20     6.27     2.04P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                29   35   -3      57.64     6.09    -4.87     0.00     0.02     0.99     0.28P    0.08R    0.00  
Bradford             27   33   -6      55.19     6.30   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.12P    0.23R    0.00  
Hereford             27   32   -6      55.93     6.40    -9.46     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.15P    0.21R    0.00  
Barnet               29   32   -8      52.84     6.00   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.49R    0.00  
Macclesfield         27   29   -9      51.11     6.34   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    1.55R    0.05  
Lincoln_City         28   29  -16      45.62     5.66   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.02R    0.12  
Torquay              29   27   -5      48.85     5.99    -7.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.43R    0.08  
Cheltenham           28   26  -15      45.61     5.99   -23.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.66R    0.24  
Grimsby              28   20  -22      34.71     5.37   -37.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.29R   10.67  
Darlington           26   15  -36      25.88     4.92   -65.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.05R   88.84  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2010, Ebbsfleet_United vs Histon; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          30   63  +31      93.91     5.39    45.02    31.71    98.97    53.89P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         28   60  +30      95.80     5.95    47.57    48.09    99.09    63.86P    0.00     0.00  
York               29   59  +20      92.12     5.61    35.42    18.33    97.45    38.36P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   29   52  +23      78.52     5.95    28.35     0.31    39.08     8.20P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              28   52  +13      82.45     6.13    22.35     1.05    62.39    11.81P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          31   50  +10      70.31     5.60     9.48     0.00     4.34     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      29   49  +24      80.08     5.74    36.40     0.41    50.89    13.90P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          29   48  +10      78.59     5.83    21.03     0.09    36.72     7.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      29   43   +9      71.55     6.06    17.10     0.00     7.27     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       29   42   -4      63.05     5.83    -7.19     0.00     0.24     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         27   41   +9      67.90     6.45    10.96     0.00     3.02     0.57P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           30   39   -1      58.95     5.65    -3.33     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Histon             29   39   -2      59.33     5.81    -6.58     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            28   38   +3      63.46     6.21     4.63     0.00     0.47     0.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    32   36  -13      51.99     5.20   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   33   +3      57.22     5.98     4.65     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Salisbury          29   30   -9      50.58     5.87   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.94R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -25      42.70     4.65   -33.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.05R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    30   29  -18      44.34     5.17   -27.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.94R    0.00  
Barrow             26   28  -13      50.32     6.51   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.71R    0.00  
Forest_Green       30   26  -26      41.13     5.28   -37.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.52R    0.01  
Gateshead          29   25  -14      43.64     5.77   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.52R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     31   17  -41      25.95     4.24   -63.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.63R    7.86  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.01     5.77   -28.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   92.13  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1