Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 8 February 2010 at 22:18:43 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2010, Birmingham vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         25   58  +40      86.20     4.31    59.93    61.42    92.58    99.63    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   56  +41      83.76     4.66    57.75    34.87    82.29    98.40    99.68    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   49  +30      77.94     4.35    52.32     3.65    24.00    88.86    96.73    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   44  +17      66.43     4.77    24.35     0.01     0.33     3.37    25.43    76.30     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   43  +20      67.07     4.83    30.43     0.01     0.37     4.34    32.89    81.59     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        23   41  +13      63.80     5.51    16.26     0.01     0.16     1.99    15.15    51.66     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     24   41  +13      66.91     5.01    22.89     0.02     0.26     3.36    28.86    78.00     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      24   37   +0      57.30     5.26     2.11     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.24    11.01     0.00     0.00  
Everton         24   32   -2      50.87     5.03    -2.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.99     0.02R    0.00  
Fulham          25   31   -1      49.60     4.85    -0.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.06R    0.00  
Stoke           23   29   -4      47.10     5.38    -7.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.58R    0.02  
Blackburn       25   28  -18      40.18     4.52   -27.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.31R    0.78  
Sunderland      24   25  -10      40.98     5.02   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.78R    0.86  
Hull            25   24  -25      36.34     4.71   -33.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.09R    5.97  
Burnley         24   23  -22      37.13     4.92   -31.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.15R    5.23  
Wigan           23   23  -23      37.88     5.11   -35.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.32R    4.39  
Bolton          23   22  -15      36.82     5.01   -27.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.40R    5.71  
West_Ham        24   21  -10      38.18     4.78   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.16R    2.36  
Wolverhampton   24   21  -22      32.45     4.61   -35.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.84R   23.69  
Portsmouth      24   15  -22      29.20     4.84   -30.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.28R   51.00  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 February 2010, Barnsley vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        28   59  +31      97.78     5.58    52.14    76.66    94.49   100.00    96.87P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        29   56  +28      90.54     5.74    47.06    16.91    68.88    99.92    80.01P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     29   55  +24      86.76     5.86    36.45     6.10    31.91    99.47    57.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          28   45  +18      77.55     6.30    31.09     0.30     3.99    87.55    26.55P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          28   45   +5      70.45     6.15     6.96     0.01     0.26    48.73    10.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   43   +3      68.84     6.35     4.94     0.00     0.14    38.69     6.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        27   42   +3      69.81     6.65     5.68     0.01     0.26    44.80     8.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   42   +1      65.83     6.00     1.53     0.00     0.01    21.15     3.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool        29   40   +8      65.62     6.07    11.27     0.00     0.03    22.45     4.23P    0.05R    0.00  
Barnsley         28   39   -4      60.79     6.14    -9.20     0.00     0.00     5.91     0.77P    0.90R    0.03  
Middlesbrough    29   38   +7      63.72     5.96    10.65     0.00     0.01    13.98     2.96P    0.16R    0.00  
Bristol_City     28   37   -4      59.17     6.27    -7.66     0.00     0.00     3.98     0.55P    1.94R    0.07  
Watford          28   35   -4      59.58     6.38    -4.59     0.00     0.00     4.69     0.57P    2.00R    0.08  
Preston          28   35   -7      56.64     6.23   -11.90     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.21P    4.91R    0.21  
QPR              28   34   -5      57.51     6.36    -7.20     0.00     0.00     2.64     0.35P    3.68R    0.16  
Coventry         29   34   -8      54.49     5.93   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.08P    8.17R    0.56  
Doncaster        27   33   -2      57.42     6.54    -4.16     0.00     0.00     2.98     0.47P    3.70R    0.18  
Derby            29   33  -11      51.39     5.81   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   18.93R    1.27  
Scunthorpe       28   33  -14      53.05     6.12   -22.29     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.03P   14.37R    1.26  
Sheff_Wed        29   31  -13      50.07     5.88   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   25.97R    2.55  
Ipswich          28   30   -8      52.22     6.27   -12.02     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P   16.29R    1.53  
Reading          28   29  -15      48.89     6.09   -23.22     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   35.20R    5.19  
Plymouth         27   24  -15      43.01     6.13   -24.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    71.35R   22.88  
Peterborough     29   21  -18      37.68     5.68   -29.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.32R   64.05  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 8 February 2010, Colchester vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          30   63  +33      95.37     5.44    51.16    44.62    83.99    99.92    89.20P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     28   61  +29      96.21     6.00    44.93    49.55    84.43    99.89    89.70P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         30   57  +20      84.24     5.73    28.76     2.02    10.38    91.92    31.02P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       29   55  +16      86.04     5.89    27.83     2.90    15.05    94.57    36.74P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   49  +12      76.74     5.97    18.76     0.08     0.81    54.73    13.41P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          27   49   +8      78.04     6.40    12.48     0.31     1.90    60.24    12.04P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     27   46  +20      79.00     6.67    30.55     0.52     3.34    69.79    21.77P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   46   +6      71.14     6.03     8.56     0.00     0.08    19.03     3.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   28   39   -8      61.40     6.20   -11.98     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.15P    0.50R    0.00  
Brentford        28   37   +1      62.92     6.22     3.17     0.00     0.00     2.06     0.44P    0.22R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    29   35   -5      55.92     5.86    -9.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    3.55R    0.01  
Southampton      28   34  +15      65.53     6.37    25.42     0.00     0.00     5.40     1.59P    0.12R    0.00  
Walsall          27   34   +1      60.10     6.45     0.96     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.19P    0.95R    0.00  
Yeovil           29   34   -2      56.08     6.01    -4.48     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    3.44R    0.00  
Carlisle         28   34   -4      55.42     6.18    -9.95     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    5.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool       30   32  -10      52.69     5.75   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.78R    0.04  
Southend         29   31   -9      52.37     5.84   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.48R    0.05  
Exeter           30   31  -11      51.19     5.77   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.52R    0.09  
Oldham           26   29   -9      50.57     6.29   -16.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.64R    0.14  
Gillingham       29   29  -11      49.07     5.85   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.14R    0.28  
Brighton         28   29  -13      48.29     6.00   -22.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.75R    0.28  
Tranmere         28   26  -23      41.46     5.58   -37.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.65R    5.37  
Wycombe          30   23  -25      38.73     5.42   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.62R   11.13  
Stockport        28   16  -31      29.87     5.28   -50.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.61R   82.61  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 February 2010, Accrington_Stanley vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             29   59  +34      94.82     5.43    54.95    63.15    98.81    99.99    99.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          29   53   +5      77.71     5.93     7.07     0.64    22.26    78.77    34.77P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 28   51   +4      79.05     6.41     9.12     0.95    31.36    82.72    42.22P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         25   46  +32      91.01     6.37    58.61    34.06    92.55    99.61    95.72P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            26   45   +9      74.91     6.90    12.38     0.42    15.54    63.08    27.81P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           29   45   +6      70.75     5.94     9.70     0.04     3.77    38.48    12.93P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         28   45   +5      71.07     6.30     6.78     0.04     4.89    40.21    13.42P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   42   +5      75.74     7.24    12.56     0.66    19.12    67.16    30.68P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   41   +7      71.21     6.71    13.39     0.03     5.99    44.10    16.28P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            27   40   +4      67.82     6.58     6.25     0.01     2.29    24.59     8.17P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          29   40   +2      64.82     6.06     4.18     0.00     0.48    10.87     3.09P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   40   +1      66.18     6.38     2.85     0.00     1.16    16.68     4.90P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            28   38   +4      65.90     6.29     8.93     0.00     0.91    16.29     5.02P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            27   37   +4      65.02     6.63     7.07     0.00     0.84    14.26     4.94P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                29   35   -3      57.56     6.10    -4.97     0.00     0.02     1.14     0.29P    0.08R    0.00  
Bradford             27   33   -6      55.25     6.34   -13.35     0.00     0.01     0.71     0.18P    0.29R    0.00  
Barnet               28   32   -6      54.14     6.22    -9.55     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.08P    0.34R    0.00  
Hereford             27   32   -6      55.97     6.42    -9.42     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.19P    0.22R    0.00  
Macclesfield         26   29   -8      51.68     6.54   -15.83     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    1.43R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         27   28  -16      46.35     5.88   -26.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.54R    0.17  
Torquay              29   27   -5      48.73     6.01    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.89R    0.06  
Cheltenham           27   26  -14      47.32     6.40   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    4.93R    0.20  
Grimsby              28   20  -22      34.70     5.34   -37.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.16R   10.44  
Darlington           25   14  -36      25.65     5.07   -65.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.12R   89.12  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 February 2010, AFC_Wimbledon vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         27   60  +31      98.26     6.09    50.20    63.49    99.64    74.99P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          29   60  +29      92.92     5.66    43.77    21.38    98.45    46.70P    0.00     0.00  
York               29   59  +20      92.00     5.65    35.22    14.05    97.72    35.17P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   50  +12      71.38     5.71    11.08     0.00     7.43     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      29   49  +24      79.99     5.74    36.24     0.32    54.28    14.57P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   28   49  +21      77.60     6.13    27.52     0.18    37.42     7.78P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              27   49  +12      80.26     6.37    20.41     0.47    51.61     9.32P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          29   48  +10      78.46     5.87    20.78     0.10    39.75     7.95P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      29   43   +9      71.60     6.05    17.23     0.00     8.65     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       29   42   -4      63.15     5.82    -6.96     0.00     0.34     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         27   41   +9      67.72     6.46    10.70     0.00     3.61     0.67P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           29   38   -1      58.64     5.88    -4.24     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham            27   37   +3      64.37     6.50     5.34     0.00     0.99     0.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             28   36   -3      57.66     6.08    -7.78     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.09R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   33   +3      57.16     5.99     4.62     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   33  -17      50.40     5.36   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.74R    0.00  
Salisbury          29   30   -9      50.44     5.83   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.18R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   30  -24      44.32     4.99   -31.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    29   29  -16      44.96     5.39   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.51R    0.00  
Barrow             26   28  -13      50.23     6.57   -21.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.34R    0.00  
Forest_Green       30   26  -26      41.19     5.28   -37.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.96R    0.01  
Gateshead          29   25  -14      43.59     5.83   -21.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.89R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic     30   17  -37      27.13     4.55   -59.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.16R    6.53  
Chester            28   -3  -19      15.05     5.83   -28.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   93.46  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1