Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 5 February 2010 at 22:18:41 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 February 2010, Fulham vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         24   55  +38      85.04     4.58    58.80    56.77    85.86    98.62    99.76   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   53  +36      82.94     4.80    54.04    33.43    75.15    96.47    99.19    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   49  +32      78.85     4.58    53.35     9.60    36.45    87.97    96.60    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       24   42  +20      67.89     5.11    31.15     0.08     0.91     6.08    35.45    82.01     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   41  +16      65.64     5.07    24.69     0.01     0.27     2.49    17.82    67.36     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        22   41  +14      66.44     5.82    19.57     0.09     0.89     4.83    25.60    67.40     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     23   40  +13      66.81     5.28    22.26     0.02     0.46     3.50    24.82    73.22     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      23   34   -1      56.18     5.56     1.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.65     8.04     0.00     0.00  
Everton         23   32   -1      51.55     5.27    -2.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.49     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          24   30   -1      50.06     5.15    -0.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.62     0.08R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   28  -15      41.76     4.79   -24.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.61R    0.34  
Stoke           22   26   -7      44.79     5.60   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.99R    0.14  
Sunderland      23   24  -10      42.68     5.42   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.67R    0.57  
Wigan           22   22  -23      37.20     5.25   -37.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.98R    5.90  
West_Ham        23   21   -9      39.80     5.13   -14.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.56R    1.46  
Bolton          22   21  -15      37.32     5.37   -27.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.60R    5.03  
Wolverhampton   23   21  -21      32.76     4.71   -35.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.15R   20.39  
Hull            24   21  -26      33.71     4.93   -36.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.43R   16.18  
Burnley         23   20  -23      35.26     5.16   -33.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.38R   10.81  
Portsmouth      23   15  -17      30.18     5.04   -26.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.54R   39.18  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 5 February 2010, Newcastle vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        28   59  +31      97.81     5.58    52.19    79.40    95.30   100.00    97.47P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        28   53  +27      89.47     5.93    47.00    14.35    65.24    99.78    77.45P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     28   52  +23      86.18     5.94    37.09     5.85    33.15    99.38    58.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          28   45  +18      78.00     6.25    31.93     0.38     5.64    89.33    28.94P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          27   42   +3      68.27     6.32     4.33     0.00     0.17    34.82     6.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   41   +1      66.92     6.29     2.67     0.00     0.05    27.87     4.07P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        28   40   +9      67.81     6.38    13.57     0.01     0.14    35.97     6.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +2      66.62     6.56     3.11     0.00     0.09    27.45     4.62P    0.05R    0.00  
Leicester        26   39   +2      67.06     6.95     3.06     0.00     0.16    30.22     5.44P    0.09R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    28   37   +7      64.35     6.31    11.06     0.00     0.02    18.06     3.77P    0.19R    0.00  
Bristol_City     27   36   -4      60.16     6.58    -6.75     0.00     0.01     6.19     0.88P    1.49R    0.04  
Barnsley         27   36   -5      58.84     6.40   -10.95     0.00     0.00     3.86     0.51P    2.32R    0.07  
Watford          27   35   -3      61.38     6.64    -2.91     0.00     0.00     8.69     1.25P    1.22R    0.05  
Preston          27   35   -5      58.15     6.39    -9.43     0.00     0.00     3.32     0.50P    2.83R    0.07  
QPR              27   34   -4      59.54     6.62    -5.21     0.00     0.01     5.53     0.73P    2.05R    0.07  
Doncaster        26   33   -1      60.19     6.78    -1.06     0.00     0.00     7.12     1.14P    1.69R    0.06  
Coventry         28   33   -8      54.41     6.15   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.11P    8.52R    0.40  
Scunthorpe       27   33  -13      54.60     6.31   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.10P    9.27R    0.49  
Derby            28   32  -11      51.02     6.04   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   20.28R    1.06  
Sheff_Wed        28   31  -12      50.38     6.03   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   23.55R    1.51  
Ipswich          27   29   -8      52.47     6.58   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.06P   15.41R    1.24  
Reading          27   26  -16      46.13     6.21   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   51.05R    8.40  
Plymouth         26   24  -14      43.76     6.40   -24.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.34R   15.16  
Peterborough     28   18  -19      35.65     5.97   -31.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.59R   71.40  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Colchester vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          29   63  +34      97.01     5.74    52.68    46.47    86.88    99.94    91.10P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     27   60  +29      97.68     6.19    46.50    49.40    87.09    99.93    91.62P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         29   56  +20      84.54     5.99    28.57     1.67     9.31    92.18    30.28P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   52  +14      84.96     6.13    26.60     1.29     9.22    92.83    30.91P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          26   48   +8      78.76     6.68    12.96     0.31     2.12    66.29    13.31P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   46  +11      74.68     6.25    17.07     0.02     0.35    42.22     9.93P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   45  +20      80.86     6.87    33.05     0.84     4.98    79.84    27.04P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   43   +4      69.33     6.29     6.19     0.00     0.03    13.99     2.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   27   38   -8      61.44     6.43   -12.78     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.17P    0.76R    0.00  
Brentford        27   34   -3      59.79     6.35    -2.88     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.16P    1.20R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    28   34   -5      56.94     6.14    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    3.23R    0.01  
Southampton      27   33  +15      66.38     6.57    26.26     0.00     0.01     8.00     2.50P    0.11R    0.00  
Walsall          26   33   +1      61.48     6.76     2.32     0.00     0.00     2.05     0.41P    0.82R    0.00  
Carlisle         27   33   -4      54.62     6.37   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    7.69R    0.04  
Yeovil           28   31   -5      53.50     6.24    -8.98     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    9.60R    0.10  
Southend         28   31   -7      53.68     6.04   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    8.67R    0.05  
Hartlepool       29   31  -10      51.98     5.92   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.52R    0.15  
Exeter           29   30  -11      51.22     5.95   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.92R    0.23  
Gillingham       28   29   -7      51.19     6.12   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.91R    0.28  
Brighton         27   28  -13      48.19     6.26   -23.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   35.73R    0.83  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.20     6.58   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.20R    1.03  
Tranmere         27   26  -22      43.16     5.88   -36.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.03R    5.37  
Wycombe          29   23  -22      40.86     5.74   -30.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.55R    9.30  
Stockport        27   16  -29      31.04     5.55   -48.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.05R   82.61  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Crewe vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             28   56  +32      94.07     5.67    54.80    61.00    97.46    99.96    98.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          28   52   +5      78.98     6.16     8.32     1.43    25.32    81.94    37.15P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 27   48   +3      76.92     6.62     7.32     0.65    18.15    70.70    28.91P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            25   45  +11      79.20     7.16    18.98     2.28    32.26    80.56    45.02P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         24   43  +31      90.29     6.60    59.30    33.60    89.08    99.23    93.51P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   42   +5      69.03     6.20     8.54     0.03     1.97    26.53     8.19P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   42   +4      70.19     6.56     6.87     0.04     3.47    33.06    10.57P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   41  +10      74.15     7.01    18.94     0.29    11.84    58.51    25.21P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            26   40   +5      69.68     6.86     8.02     0.06     3.69    31.88    10.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   39   +4      74.33     7.44    11.82     0.58    12.96    57.33    23.51P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            27   38   +5      67.20     6.62     9.80     0.01     1.53    20.91     6.80P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            26   37   +5      66.75     6.89     8.60     0.01     1.48    19.82     6.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton          28   37   +1      62.12     6.31     1.42     0.00     0.15     5.27     1.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   37   +0      64.47     6.56     1.70     0.00     0.55    10.59     2.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                28   35   -1      57.94     6.23    -5.11     0.00     0.02     1.26     0.25P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             26   33   -5      56.93     6.68   -11.97     0.00     0.04     1.42     0.31P    0.20R    0.00  
Macclesfield         25   29   -7      53.57     6.87   -14.13     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.09P    1.14R    0.01  
Hereford             26   29   -7      54.14     6.66   -10.84     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.09P    0.78R    0.00  
Barnet               27   29   -9      50.95     6.46   -14.83     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.04P    1.83R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         26   28  -15      46.98     6.06   -26.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.54R    0.04  
Torquay              28   27   -4      50.24     6.29    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P    2.18R    0.01  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      46.90     6.55   -23.55     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.40R    0.09  
Grimsby              27   20  -21      35.35     5.57   -38.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.05R    3.75  
Darlington           24   11  -38      21.86     5.00   -72.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.76R   96.10  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Histon vs York; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.54     5.86    46.73    29.82    99.24    54.32P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.47     6.33    51.66    63.16    99.72    75.16P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   56  +19      89.90     5.97    33.49     6.29    94.25    27.58P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          29   50  +14      74.61     6.04    15.90     0.02    18.65     2.70P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          28   48  +11      80.34     6.11    22.59     0.19    52.81    10.95P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.63     5.92    36.47     0.19    51.32    13.60P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   27   46  +18      76.18     6.33    24.94     0.07    28.95     5.30P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              26   46  +11      78.90     6.76    19.73     0.25    42.98     8.13P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   42   +9      70.88     6.33    15.55     0.00     7.62     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.28     6.13    -8.49     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         26   38   +4      64.53     6.70     3.41     0.00     1.46     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            26   37   +4      66.70     6.79     7.70     0.00     2.62     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      55.69     6.02    -7.15     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.11R    0.00  
Histon             27   35   -3      58.66     6.39    -6.69     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.50     6.31     5.46     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    30   32  -17      49.77     5.59   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.59R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      53.03     6.16    -6.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.72     6.85   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.84R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   27  -25      42.15     5.20   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.76R    0.02  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.82     5.56   -28.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.37R    0.02  
Forest_Green       29   26  -24      41.65     5.43   -37.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.02R    0.04  
Gateshead          28   22  -16      40.55     5.93   -26.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.54R    0.07  
Grays_Athletic     29   17  -34      28.09     4.82   -56.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.33R    9.68  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.04     6.18   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   90.17  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1