Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 4 February 2010 at 22:18:45 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 February 2010, Fulham vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         24   55  +38      84.95     4.67    58.65    56.33    85.18    98.40    99.73    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   53  +36      82.90     4.86    54.02    33.53    75.16    96.08    99.06    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   49  +32      78.86     4.59    53.41     9.89    37.06    88.11    96.70    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       24   42  +20      67.89     5.10    31.10     0.07     0.90     6.13    35.32    81.86     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   41  +16      65.67     5.07    24.72     0.03     0.32     2.51    18.06    67.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        22   41  +14      66.46     5.80    19.58     0.11     0.88     5.02    25.49    67.55     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     23   40  +13      66.82     5.32    22.31     0.04     0.50     3.70    24.95    73.06     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      23   34   -1      56.12     5.52     1.73     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.62     7.66     0.00R    0.00  
Everton         23   32   -1      51.50     5.28    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.45     0.04R    0.00  
Fulham          24   30   -1      50.16     5.16    -0.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.05R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   28  -15      41.87     4.82   -23.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.63R    0.33  
Stoke           22   26   -7      44.86     5.60   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.95R    0.13  
Sunderland      23   24  -10      42.64     5.39   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.63R    0.49  
Wigan           22   22  -23      37.14     5.27   -37.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.14R    5.93  
West_Ham        23   21   -9      39.79     5.14   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.58R    1.52  
Bolton          22   21  -15      37.40     5.40   -27.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.24R    4.92  
Wolverhampton   23   21  -21      32.87     4.73   -35.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.10R   19.89  
Hull            24   21  -26      33.72     4.95   -36.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.39R   16.14  
Burnley         23   20  -23      35.07     5.14   -33.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.54R   11.14  
Portsmouth      23   15  -17      30.14     4.99   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.72R   39.52  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 February 2010, Blackpool vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        27   56  +27      95.71     5.98    47.00    69.38    90.25    99.99    94.23P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        28   53  +27      89.38     5.95    46.91    20.11    64.35    99.81    76.40P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     28   52  +23      86.06     5.95    36.89     8.72    34.11    99.32    58.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +22      79.83     6.38    36.69     1.74    10.49    92.77    35.32P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          27   42   +3      68.38     6.39     4.54     0.01     0.20    35.10     7.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   41   +1      67.09     6.31     2.98     0.00     0.08    28.36     4.13P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        28   40   +9      67.87     6.33    13.68     0.01     0.14    35.34     6.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +2      66.62     6.64     3.13     0.01     0.12    27.12     4.48P    0.07R    0.00  
Leicester        26   39   +2      66.81     6.91     2.80     0.01     0.20    28.05     5.05P    0.09R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    28   37   +7      64.44     6.28    11.19     0.01     0.03    17.68     3.42P    0.15R    0.00  
Bristol_City     27   36   -4      60.37     6.55    -6.39     0.00     0.01     6.25     0.83P    1.33R    0.03  
Barnsley         27   36   -5      59.00     6.45   -10.65     0.00     0.01     4.09     0.48P    2.22R    0.08  
Watford          27   35   -3      61.34     6.62    -3.00     0.00     0.00     8.38     1.06P    1.09R    0.02  
Preston          27   35   -5      57.99     6.41    -9.68     0.00     0.00     3.03     0.41P    2.94R    0.06  
QPR              27   34   -4      59.50     6.57    -5.31     0.00     0.00     5.13     0.67P    1.96R    0.07  
Doncaster        26   33   -1      60.24     6.82    -0.96     0.00     0.01     7.23     1.12P    1.63R    0.04  
Coventry         28   33   -8      54.40     6.18   -13.40     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.09P    8.55R    0.37  
Scunthorpe       27   33  -13      54.65     6.36   -20.70     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.09P    8.95R    0.49  
Derby            28   32  -11      50.98     6.07   -19.65     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   20.43R    1.12  
Sheff_Wed        28   31  -12      50.31     5.99   -21.39     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   23.87R    1.47  
Ipswich          27   29   -8      52.30     6.51   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P   15.72R    1.22  
Reading          27   26  -16      46.08     6.26   -26.03     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   51.40R    8.44  
Plymouth         26   24  -14      43.82     6.41   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    64.49R   14.73  
Peterborough     28   18  -19      35.54     5.89   -31.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.03R   71.86  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Colchester vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          29   63  +34      97.11     5.70    52.77    46.92    87.87    99.95    91.73P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     27   60  +29      97.68     6.17    46.54    49.22    87.05    99.92    91.66P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         29   56  +20      84.44     5.93    28.40     1.38     8.61    92.38    29.56P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   52  +14      84.93     6.19    26.62     1.42     9.19    92.62    31.44P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          26   48   +8      78.69     6.69    12.92     0.24     2.06    65.78    13.10P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   46  +11      74.67     6.21    17.06     0.03     0.39    42.48    10.06P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   45  +20      80.73     6.89    32.92     0.79     4.79    79.31    26.55P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   43   +4      69.42     6.29     6.35     0.00     0.03    14.77     2.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   27   38   -8      61.50     6.47   -12.68     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.19P    0.73R    0.00  
Brentford        27   34   -3      59.64     6.38    -3.07     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.17P    1.31R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    28   34   -5      57.03     6.19    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    3.33R    0.01  
Southampton      27   33  +15      66.25     6.59    26.05     0.00     0.01     7.87     2.45P    0.13R    0.00  
Walsall          26   33   +1      61.42     6.78     2.20     0.00     0.00     2.08     0.41P    0.92R    0.00  
Carlisle         27   33   -4      54.39     6.37   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    8.26R    0.03  
Yeovil           28   31   -5      53.66     6.23    -8.68     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    9.27R    0.08  
Southend         28   31   -7      53.51     6.05   -11.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    9.53R    0.06  
Hartlepool       29   31  -10      52.11     5.95   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.33R    0.15  
Exeter           29   30  -11      51.25     6.03   -14.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.99R    0.25  
Gillingham       28   29   -7      51.27     6.10   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.79R    0.25  
Brighton         27   28  -13      48.31     6.20   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.14R    0.68  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.26     6.59   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.37R    1.13  
Tranmere         27   26  -22      43.29     5.88   -35.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.48R    5.14  
Wycombe          29   23  -22      40.86     5.76   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.30R    9.20  
Stockport        27   16  -29      31.03     5.54   -48.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.11R   83.01  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Crewe vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             28   56  +32      94.07     5.66    54.79    60.39    97.54    99.97    98.51P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          28   52   +5      79.12     6.14     8.52     1.49    26.49    82.77    38.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 27   48   +3      77.02     6.64     7.43     0.69    18.56    71.31    29.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            25   45  +11      78.86     7.12    18.43     1.99    30.66    79.54    43.57P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         24   43  +31      90.47     6.63    59.67    34.41    89.41    99.36    93.76P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   42   +5      69.10     6.21     8.64     0.02     2.08    27.12     8.45P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   42   +4      70.09     6.54     6.74     0.04     3.32    32.49    10.26P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   41  +10      74.08     6.98    18.82     0.31    11.48    58.33    24.86P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            26   40   +5      69.82     6.81     8.27     0.06     3.81    32.78    11.00P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   39   +4      74.41     7.41    11.91     0.58    13.24    57.94    23.85P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            27   38   +5      67.02     6.59     9.54     0.01     1.41    20.15     6.37P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            26   37   +5      66.50     6.83     8.23     0.00     1.30    18.68     6.25P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          28   37   +1      62.21     6.26     1.52     0.00     0.14     5.31     1.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   37   +0      64.35     6.56     1.58     0.00     0.48    10.37     2.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                28   35   -1      58.00     6.23    -5.03     0.00     0.02     1.37     0.34P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             26   33   -5      57.05     6.69   -11.79     0.00     0.04     1.40     0.36P    0.17R    0.00  
Macclesfield         25   29   -7      53.68     6.84   -13.89     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.09P    0.93R    0.00  
Hereford             26   29   -7      54.14     6.71   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.09P    0.74R    0.00  
Barnet               27   29   -9      51.12     6.44   -14.59     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    1.76R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         26   28  -15      46.82     6.04   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.70R    0.05  
Torquay              28   27   -4      50.16     6.29    -6.94     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.28R    0.02  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      46.95     6.54   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    6.27R    0.06  
Grimsby              27   20  -21      35.26     5.55   -38.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.26R    3.61  
Darlington           24   11  -38      21.88     4.92   -72.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   96.25  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Histon vs York; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.64     5.86    46.83    30.83    99.32    55.19P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.39     6.43    51.61    62.21    99.64    74.32P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   56  +19      89.82     5.96    33.30     6.23    94.05    27.17P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          29   50  +14      74.70     6.03    16.02     0.01    19.08     2.94P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          28   48  +11      80.16     6.06    22.32     0.16    51.54    10.49P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.52     5.93    36.31     0.20    50.68    13.58P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   27   46  +18      76.36     6.29    25.23     0.09    29.90     5.88P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              26   46  +11      78.94     6.69    19.83     0.26    43.28     8.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   42   +9      71.02     6.32    15.78     0.00     8.13     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.14     6.09    -8.66     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         26   38   +4      64.59     6.72     3.47     0.00     1.48     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            26   37   +4      66.77     6.70     7.75     0.00     2.54     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      55.69     6.01    -7.14     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.10R    0.00  
Histon             27   35   -3      58.53     6.39    -6.92     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.63     6.24     5.65     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    30   32  -17      49.65     5.57   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.60R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      53.03     6.16    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.48R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.69     6.85   -20.40     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.94R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   27  -25      42.19     5.21   -33.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.04R    0.03  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.76     5.56   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.42R    0.03  
Forest_Green       29   26  -24      41.65     5.47   -37.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.86R    0.06  
Gateshead          28   22  -16      40.38     5.92   -26.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.50R    0.06  
Grays_Athletic     29   17  -34      28.18     4.87   -56.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.12R   10.03  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.19     6.19   -26.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   89.79  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1