Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 2 February 2010 at 22:18:35 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Hull vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         24   55  +38      84.98     4.68    58.70    55.76    85.23    98.42    99.71    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   53  +36      82.99     4.84    54.21    34.28    75.74    96.47    99.23    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   49  +32      78.79     4.60    53.22     9.71    36.34    87.68    96.59    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       24   42  +20      67.91     5.14    31.16     0.08     1.01     6.28    35.85    81.90     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   41  +16      65.63     5.08    24.63     0.02     0.33     2.51    17.77    67.27     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        22   41  +14      66.43     5.79    19.49     0.11     0.88     5.06    25.22    67.53     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     23   40  +13      66.77     5.29    22.21     0.04     0.45     3.53    24.79    73.25     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      23   34   -1      56.25     5.51     1.87     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.75     8.02     0.00R    0.00  
Everton         23   32   -1      51.53     5.32    -3.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.74     0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   28  -15      41.80     4.84   -24.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.91R    0.41  
Fulham          23   27   -2      49.17     5.41    -0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.22R    0.01  
Stoke           22   26   -7      44.87     5.64   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.06R    0.18  
Sunderland      23   24  -10      42.67     5.38   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.69R    0.49  
Wigan           22   22  -23      37.22     5.28   -37.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.35R    6.18  
West_Ham        23   21   -9      39.83     5.11   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.84R    1.58  
Bolton          22   21  -15      37.43     5.37   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.63R    5.19  
Wolverhampton   23   21  -21      32.65     4.68   -36.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.02R   21.89  
Hull            24   21  -26      33.67     4.95   -36.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.53R   17.35  
Burnley         23   20  -23      35.26     5.14   -33.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.65R   11.33  
Portsmouth      22   15  -16      30.89     5.23   -26.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.09R   35.39  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Preston vs Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        27   56  +27      95.49     6.00    46.76    71.84    90.83    99.99    94.30P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     28   52  +23      86.22     5.99    37.16    10.10    39.81    99.27    62.02P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        27   50  +26      87.66     6.32    45.47    15.77    55.11    99.34    69.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +22      80.08     6.35    37.16     2.20    12.91    93.04    38.00P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          27   42   +3      68.39     6.40     4.51     0.02     0.28    33.82     6.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   41   +1      66.91     6.25     2.72     0.00     0.09    26.06     3.60P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool        27   40  +10      69.59     6.61    15.19     0.06     0.57    45.03     9.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +2      66.68     6.60     3.20     0.00     0.13    26.22     4.43P    0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        26   39   +2      66.58     6.93     2.53     0.01     0.21    26.34     4.41P    0.12R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    28   37   +7      64.34     6.26    11.10     0.00     0.03    16.41     3.20P    0.19R    0.00  
Bristol_City     27   36   -4      60.09     6.60    -6.82     0.00     0.01     5.49     0.69P    1.60R    0.03  
Barnsley         27   36   -5      58.88     6.37   -10.81     0.00     0.00     3.51     0.41P    2.18R    0.07  
Watford          27   35   -3      61.51     6.69    -2.72     0.00     0.01     8.46     1.15P    1.06R    0.03  
Preston          27   35   -5      58.01     6.41    -9.59     0.00     0.00     2.92     0.38P    2.82R    0.07  
QPR              27   34   -4      59.48     6.69    -5.33     0.00     0.00     5.10     0.71P    2.02R    0.08  
Doncaster        26   33   -1      60.24     6.82    -0.98     0.00     0.01     6.83     1.07P    1.68R    0.05  
Coventry         28   33   -8      54.47     6.19   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.09P    8.39R    0.40  
Scunthorpe       27   33  -13      54.72     6.36   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.07P    9.08R    0.39  
Derby            28   32  -11      51.23     6.10   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   19.59R    0.94  
Sheff_Wed        28   31  -12      50.25     6.04   -21.50     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.00P   24.26R    1.48  
Ipswich          27   29   -8      52.33     6.52   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P   15.83R    1.26  
Reading          27   26  -16      46.07     6.25   -26.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.31R    8.43  
Plymouth         26   24  -14      43.80     6.42   -24.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    64.69R   14.87  
Peterborough     28   18  -19      35.51     5.88   -31.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.05R   71.90  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Colchester vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          29   63  +34      97.08     5.65    52.73    47.26    87.59    99.95    91.58P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     27   60  +29      97.63     6.18    46.48    48.77    86.90    99.92    91.33P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         29   56  +20      84.53     5.98    28.54     1.55     9.17    92.31    30.06P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   52  +14      84.96     6.15    26.64     1.33     8.97    92.90    31.67P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          26   48   +8      78.76     6.72    12.96     0.31     2.23    66.21    13.36P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   46  +11      74.72     6.27    17.13     0.03     0.37    42.67    10.12P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   45  +20      80.55     6.87    32.57     0.75     4.72    78.62    26.02P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   43   +4      69.45     6.30     6.40     0.00     0.03    14.66     2.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   27   38   -8      61.38     6.43   -12.92     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.22P    0.68R    0.00  
Brentford        27   34   -3      59.80     6.42    -2.87     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.16P    1.34R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    28   34   -5      56.94     6.13    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    3.34R    0.01  
Southampton      27   33  +15      66.24     6.59    26.04     0.00     0.01     7.78     2.40P    0.11R    0.00  
Walsall          26   33   +1      61.45     6.79     2.26     0.00     0.00     2.14     0.39P    0.89R    0.00  
Carlisle         27   33   -4      54.67     6.38   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    7.53R    0.03  
Yeovil           28   31   -5      53.52     6.24    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    9.54R    0.10  
Southend         28   31   -7      53.50     6.04   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    9.51R    0.06  
Hartlepool       29   31  -10      52.14     5.96   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.65R    0.17  
Exeter           29   30  -11      51.16     6.00   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.38R    0.24  
Gillingham       28   29   -7      51.23     6.14   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.92R    0.24  
Brighton         27   28  -13      48.28     6.23   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.59R    0.70  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.25     6.61   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.16R    1.13  
Tranmere         27   26  -22      43.31     5.91   -35.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.12R    5.21  
Wycombe          29   23  -22      40.92     5.78   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.10R    9.07  
Stockport        27   16  -29      30.96     5.54   -48.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.13R   83.06  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Crewe vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             28   56  +32      94.22     5.65    55.06    61.94    97.47    99.97    98.42P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          28   52   +5      79.21     6.15     8.67     1.44    26.67    82.93    38.82P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 27   48   +3      77.06     6.67     7.51     0.77    18.86    71.14    29.53P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            25   45  +11      78.97     7.15    18.63     2.00    31.11    79.68    43.96P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         24   43  +31      90.23     6.64    59.23    32.80    88.38    99.20    93.15P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   42   +5      69.09     6.20     8.62     0.01     2.02    26.93     8.27P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   42   +4      70.13     6.57     6.81     0.06     3.27    32.95    10.41P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   41  +10      74.20     6.99    19.00     0.27    11.70    59.15    25.18P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            26   40   +5      69.80     6.87     8.25     0.05     3.91    32.34    10.93P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   39   +4      74.43     7.52    11.97     0.65    13.32    57.96    23.93P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            27   38   +5      66.97     6.58     9.40     0.00     1.31    19.92     5.86P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            26   37   +5      66.49     6.86     8.22     0.00     1.33    18.64     6.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton          28   37   +1      62.22     6.28     1.55     0.00     0.12     5.28     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   37   +0      64.21     6.59     1.30     0.00     0.48    10.07     2.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                28   35   -1      57.98     6.28    -5.04     0.00     0.02     1.38     0.34P    0.09R    0.00  
Bradford             26   33   -5      56.93     6.65   -11.97     0.00     0.03     1.35     0.31P    0.22R    0.00  
Macclesfield         25   29   -7      53.44     6.91   -14.27     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.13P    1.15R    0.01  
Hereford             26   29   -7      54.21     6.69   -10.74     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.12P    0.75R    0.00  
Barnet               27   29   -9      50.98     6.46   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.82R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         26   28  -15      46.80     6.15   -27.03     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     7.03R    0.05  
Torquay              28   27   -4      50.21     6.28    -6.87     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.28R    0.04  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      47.03     6.53   -23.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    6.20R    0.06  
Grimsby              27   20  -21      35.37     5.55   -38.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.70R    3.74  
Darlington           24   11  -38      22.06     5.00   -71.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.75R   96.10  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2010, Histon vs York; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.53     5.88    46.68    30.57    99.25    54.92P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.37     6.41    51.45    62.16    99.67    74.21P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   56  +19      89.93     5.93    33.47     6.52    94.53    27.94P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          29   50  +14      74.78     6.05    16.14     0.03    19.30     3.01P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          28   48  +11      80.29     6.12    22.47     0.24    52.39    10.83P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.53     5.85    36.33     0.17    51.01    13.56P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   27   46  +18      76.28     6.36    25.06     0.09    29.44     5.65P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              26   46  +11      78.81     6.74    19.64     0.22    42.26     7.82P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   42   +9      70.90     6.28    15.59     0.01     7.68     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.20     6.10    -8.58     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         26   38   +4      64.72     6.67     3.71     0.00     1.46     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            26   37   +4      66.78     6.78     7.80     0.00     2.69     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      55.66     6.05    -7.18     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Histon             27   35   -3      58.62     6.37    -6.72     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.59     6.31     5.57     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    30   32  -17      49.73     5.55   -24.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.55R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      53.00     6.21    -6.56     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.51R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.57     6.82   -20.59     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.94R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   27  -25      42.27     5.22   -33.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.16R    0.04  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.69     5.55   -28.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.89R    0.02  
Forest_Green       29   26  -24      41.70     5.45   -37.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.43R    0.04  
Gateshead          28   22  -16      40.48     5.98   -26.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.18R    0.09  
Grays_Athletic     29   17  -34      28.04     4.81   -56.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.29R    9.94  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.15     6.19   -26.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   89.87  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1