Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 1 February 2010 at 22:18:38 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 February 2010, Sunderland vs Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         23   54  +38      86.77     4.83    61.45    66.20    90.22    99.12    99.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   53  +36      82.97     4.84    54.12    26.49    73.93    96.29    99.16    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   49  +32      78.82     4.61    53.29     7.14    33.54    87.62    96.59    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       24   42  +20      67.84     5.13    31.02     0.03     0.82     6.15    35.37    81.86     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   41  +16      65.63     5.13    24.64     0.02     0.30     2.48    18.10    67.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        22   41  +14      66.39     5.83    19.39     0.09     0.79     4.80    25.08    67.38     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     23   40  +13      66.80     5.30    22.18     0.02     0.41     3.49    25.16    73.13     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      23   34   -1      56.08     5.51     1.68     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.61     7.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton         23   32   -1      51.52     5.29    -2.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.68     0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   28  -15      41.82     4.81   -24.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.51R    0.34  
Fulham          23   27   -2      49.37     5.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.19R    0.01  
Stoke           22   26   -7      44.82     5.64   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.00R    0.14  
Sunderland      23   24  -10      42.61     5.37   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.53R    0.50  
Wigan           22   22  -23      37.21     5.33   -37.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.80R    6.27  
West_Ham        23   21   -9      39.74     5.11   -15.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.44R    1.44  
Bolton          22   21  -15      37.46     5.35   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.22R    4.71  
Wolverhampton   23   21  -21      32.83     4.70   -35.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.25R   19.71  
Burnley         23   20  -23      35.28     5.21   -33.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.00R   10.70  
Hull            23   20  -26      32.65     5.03   -39.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.02R   23.12  
Portsmouth      22   15  -16      30.97     5.20   -26.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.03R   33.06  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2010, Cardiff vs Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        27   56  +27      95.52     6.02    46.72    71.46    90.66    99.99    94.48P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     28   52  +23      86.15     6.00    37.06    10.10    39.10    99.15    61.09P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        27   50  +26      87.85     6.28    45.82    16.08    56.46    99.32    71.11P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +22      79.89     6.36    36.87     2.26    12.28    91.96    36.38P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          27   42   +3      68.28     6.30     4.40     0.01     0.22    31.21     6.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   41   +4      69.55     6.56     7.76     0.02     0.38    40.77     6.66P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool        27   40  +10      69.33     6.62    14.85     0.05     0.50    41.67     8.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +2      66.65     6.66     3.19     0.01     0.14    24.96     4.24P    0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        26   39   +2      66.67     6.86     2.61     0.01     0.17    25.10     4.43P    0.10R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    28   37   +7      64.32     6.26    11.06     0.00     0.04    15.09     3.10P    0.18R    0.00  
Bristol_City     27   36   -4      60.28     6.54    -6.55     0.00     0.01     5.27     0.69P    1.35R    0.04  
Preston          26   35   -2      61.34     6.77    -3.39     0.00     0.02     8.00     1.25P    1.06R    0.02  
QPR              27   34   -4      59.53     6.57    -5.23     0.00     0.00     4.48     0.54P    1.91R    0.07  
Doncaster        26   33   -1      60.14     6.75    -1.12     0.00     0.01     6.04     0.88P    1.57R    0.05  
Barnsley         26   33   -8      55.55     6.59   -16.51     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.14P    7.26R    0.32  
Coventry         28   33   -8      54.28     6.11   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.05P    8.33R    0.42  
Scunthorpe       27   33  -13      54.81     6.38   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.08P    8.62R    0.47  
Watford          26   32   -6      58.56     6.91    -7.92     0.00     0.00     3.88     0.45P    3.23R    0.14  
Derby            28   32  -11      51.07     6.02   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   19.39R    1.12  
Sheff_Wed        28   31  -12      50.16     6.04   -21.65     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   23.95R    1.68  
Ipswich          27   29   -8      52.28     6.51   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P   15.49R    1.22  
Reading          27   26  -16      46.13     6.26   -25.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   50.25R    8.46  
Plymouth         26   24  -14      43.99     6.36   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    62.85R   14.47  
Peterborough     28   18  -19      35.61     5.98   -31.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.37R   71.50  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2010, Brighton vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          29   63  +34      97.08     5.67    52.68    46.04    87.19    99.94    91.25P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     27   60  +29      97.78     6.16    46.57    49.56    87.01    99.92    91.60P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         28   55  +20      84.72     6.28    28.25     1.99    10.01    91.49    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       27   49  +13      84.37     6.33    27.24     1.22     8.11    90.94    30.67P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          26   48   +8      78.62     6.72    12.81     0.29     1.98    64.47    12.69P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   46  +11      74.73     6.21    17.15     0.02     0.36    42.13     9.89P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   45  +20      81.11     6.87    33.45     0.88     5.29    80.19    27.32P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   43   +4      69.64     6.27     6.66     0.00     0.03    14.54     2.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   26   38   -3      64.44     6.81    -4.95     0.00     0.02     4.35     0.64P    0.22R    0.00  
Brentford        27   34   -3      59.85     6.37    -2.75     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.16P    1.19R    0.00  
Southampton      27   33  +15      66.38     6.66    26.36     0.00     0.01     8.10     2.57P    0.12R    0.00  
Carlisle         26   33   -3      54.78     6.59   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    7.57R    0.04  
Walsall          25   32   +1      61.56     7.06     1.85     0.00     0.00     2.64     0.53P    0.95R    0.00  
Yeovil           28   31   -5      53.27     6.22    -9.33     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    9.68R    0.08  
Southend         28   31   -7      53.41     6.02   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    9.26R    0.09  
Hartlepool       29   31  -10      52.25     5.96   -13.40     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    12.52R    0.11  
Leyton_Orient    27   31  -10      53.59     6.32   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   10.46R    0.12  
Exeter           29   30  -11      51.19     5.98   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.37R    0.23  
Gillingham       28   29   -7      51.32     6.10   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.56R    0.20  
Brighton         27   28  -13      48.22     6.21   -23.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.67R    0.72  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.30     6.58   -18.88     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    34.00R    1.01  
Tranmere         27   26  -22      43.15     5.88   -36.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.37R    5.38  
Wycombe          29   23  -22      40.96     5.77   -30.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.06R    9.13  
Stockport        27   16  -29      30.96     5.58   -48.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.98R   82.88  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 February 2010, Bury vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             28   56  +32      94.15     5.69    54.93    59.81    97.47    99.97    98.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          27   49   +3      75.74     6.33     4.04     0.48    12.24    65.56    22.77P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 27   48   +3      76.95     6.65     7.33     0.60    17.02    71.72    28.26P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   45  +13      82.25     7.36    23.57     5.28    49.59    89.55    60.65P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         24   43  +31      90.37     6.66    59.55    32.92    88.97    99.19    93.48P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   42   +5      69.00     6.23     8.49     0.01     1.84    27.25     8.37P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   42   +4      70.30     6.59     6.99     0.06     3.09    34.73    10.63P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   41  +10      74.06     7.02    18.80     0.26    10.78    59.03    24.58P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            26   40   +5      69.72     6.86     8.09     0.05     3.61    33.06    10.98P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   39   +4      74.29     7.49    11.77     0.51    12.07    58.17    23.12P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            27   38   +5      67.08     6.61     9.63     0.01     1.31    21.22     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            26   37   +5      66.72     6.82     8.53     0.01     1.34    20.10     6.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton          28   37   +1      62.12     6.29     1.42     0.00     0.13     5.39     1.52P    0.02R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   37   +0      64.33     6.55     1.49     0.00     0.46    10.58     2.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                27   34   -1      58.62     6.57    -4.72     0.00     0.05     2.13     0.55P    0.09R    0.00  
Bradford             26   33   -5      56.92     6.60   -11.97     0.00     0.02     1.32     0.31P    0.26R    0.00  
Macclesfield         25   29   -7      53.57     6.89   -14.09     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.12P    1.10R    0.01  
Barnet               27   29   -9      51.17     6.44   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    1.71R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         25   28  -13      48.29     6.39   -24.72     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    5.02R    0.04  
Torquay              27   26   -4      50.09     6.54    -7.81     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P    2.62R    0.02  
Hereford             25   26   -9      52.15     6.96   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.08P    1.96R    0.01  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      46.95     6.56   -23.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.79R    0.08  
Grimsby              27   20  -21      35.50     5.57   -38.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.66R    3.60  
Darlington           24   11  -38      21.99     5.01   -71.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.78R   96.22  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2010, Altrincham vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.36     5.87    46.45    28.47    99.20    52.59P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.47     6.37    51.70    62.07    99.65    74.21P    0.00     0.00  
York               27   55  +19      90.92     6.18    34.42     8.66    94.97    30.31P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          28   50  +15      76.26     6.28    17.43     0.06    26.28     4.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          28   48  +11      80.24     6.14    22.44     0.21    50.10    10.50P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.48     5.90    36.24     0.17    49.14    13.05P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   27   46  +18      76.27     6.30    25.04     0.09    28.07     5.30P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              26   46  +11      78.98     6.72    19.92     0.27    42.04     8.07P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   42   +9      70.94     6.31    15.69     0.00     7.34     1.38P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.42     6.10    -8.27     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         26   38   +4      64.45     6.66     3.31     0.00     1.28     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      55.65     6.06    -7.25     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
Wrexham            25   34   +3      64.88     7.02     6.51     0.00     1.55     0.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Histon             26   34   -3      58.28     6.62    -7.81     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.07R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.55     6.28     5.52     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    30   32  -17      49.73     5.60   -24.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.61R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      52.96     6.15    -6.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.69     6.85   -20.45     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   27  -25      42.20     5.20   -33.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.66R    0.01  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.84     5.59   -28.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.35R    0.02  
Forest_Green       29   26  -24      41.62     5.43   -37.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.09R    0.04  
Gateshead          28   22  -16      40.50     5.90   -26.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.52R    0.08  
Grays_Athletic     29   17  -34      28.13     4.88   -56.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.15R    9.95  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.18     6.17   -26.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   89.89  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1