Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 31 January 2010 at 22:18:29 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 31 January 2010, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         23   54  +38      86.79     4.75    61.50    66.46    90.33    99.23    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   53  +36      82.93     4.86    54.08    26.28    73.59    96.13    99.08    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   49  +32      78.86     4.60    53.31     7.12    33.77    87.91    96.72    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       24   42  +20      67.70     5.20    30.74     0.04     0.84     5.88    34.60    80.67     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   41  +16      65.70     5.04    24.76     0.01     0.26     2.55    18.36    68.39     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        22   41  +14      66.43     5.78    19.47     0.06     0.74     4.71    25.47    67.66     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     23   40  +13      66.78     5.38    22.22     0.04     0.47     3.55    25.12    73.19     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      23   34   -1      56.21     5.56     1.86     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.69     8.00     0.00R    0.00  
Everton         23   32   -1      51.51     5.30    -2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.66     0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   28  -15      41.93     4.84   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.33R    0.29  
Fulham          23   27   -2      49.08     5.46    -0.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.27R    0.02  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.76     5.90   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     2.58R    0.26  
Sunderland      22   23  -10      43.84     5.69   -13.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     3.52R    0.43  
Wigan           22   22  -23      37.20     5.33   -37.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.51R    6.06  
West_Ham        23   21   -9      39.78     5.15   -15.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.54R    1.60  
Bolton          22   21  -15      37.36     5.34   -27.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.93R    4.77  
Wolverhampton   23   21  -21      32.78     4.73   -35.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.48R   19.62  
Burnley         23   20  -23      35.22     5.15   -33.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.28R   10.72  
Hull            23   20  -26      32.68     5.03   -39.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.66R   23.07  
Portsmouth      22   15  -16      30.92     5.25   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.90R   33.17  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2010, Cardiff vs Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        27   56  +27      95.56     6.02    46.78    71.99    90.86    99.98    94.57P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     28   52  +23      86.21     5.96    37.13     9.78    39.35    99.13    61.45P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        27   50  +26      87.86     6.29    45.80    16.02    56.00    99.34    70.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +22      79.90     6.37    36.88     2.10    12.26    92.20    36.62P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          27   42   +3      68.33     6.34     4.44     0.02     0.24    31.95     6.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   41   +4      69.36     6.54     7.47     0.03     0.31    39.78     6.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool        27   40  +10      69.29     6.63    14.78     0.04     0.52    41.73     8.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +2      66.71     6.66     3.21     0.01     0.15    25.22     4.24P    0.08R    0.00  
Leicester        26   39   +2      66.54     6.96     2.42     0.02     0.22    24.81     4.34P    0.13R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    28   37   +7      64.34     6.23    11.06     0.00     0.04    15.29     3.02P    0.17R    0.01  
Bristol_City     27   36   -4      60.29     6.54    -6.52     0.00     0.01     5.23     0.64P    1.36R    0.03  
Preston          26   35   -2      61.22     6.74    -3.59     0.00     0.02     7.67     1.13P    1.01R    0.02  
QPR              27   34   -4      59.53     6.61    -5.21     0.00     0.01     4.52     0.65P    1.85R    0.05  
Doncaster        26   33   -1      60.10     6.80    -1.17     0.00     0.01     6.10     0.91P    1.79R    0.06  
Barnsley         26   33   -8      55.53     6.59   -16.46     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.15P    7.22R    0.42  
Coventry         28   33   -8      54.31     6.11   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P    8.25R    0.40  
Scunthorpe       27   33  -13      54.68     6.28   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.05P    8.79R    0.45  
Watford          26   32   -6      58.59     6.86    -7.86     0.00     0.00     3.94     0.50P    3.31R    0.16  
Derby            28   32  -11      51.11     6.04   -19.40     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   19.53R    1.07  
Sheff_Wed        28   31  -12      50.29     5.98   -21.35     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   23.43R    1.52  
Ipswich          27   29   -8      52.36     6.53   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.07P   15.36R    1.12  
Reading          27   26  -16      46.07     6.29   -26.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    50.59R    8.96  
Plymouth         26   24  -14      44.08     6.40   -24.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   62.57R   13.90  
Peterborough     28   18  -19      35.63     5.98   -31.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.49R   71.83  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2010, Brighton vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          29   63  +34      97.09     5.66    52.72    46.53    87.34    99.97    91.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     27   60  +29      97.67     6.17    46.43    49.13    86.81    99.94    91.36P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         28   55  +20      84.74     6.28    28.30     2.03    10.50    91.62    30.40P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       27   49  +13      84.12     6.45    26.86     1.26     7.96    89.94    29.90P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          26   48   +8      78.74     6.71    12.96     0.29     1.99    65.25    12.94P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   46  +11      74.88     6.25    17.40     0.02     0.40    43.14    10.32P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   45  +20      80.98     6.81    33.27     0.73     4.93    79.75    27.23P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   43   +4      69.56     6.27     6.59     0.00     0.05    14.44     2.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   26   38   -3      64.51     6.86    -4.86     0.00     0.01     4.58     0.69P    0.26R    0.00  
Brentford        27   34   -3      59.88     6.34    -2.78     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.14P    1.11R    0.00  
Southampton      27   33  +15      66.18     6.60    25.99     0.00     0.00     7.36     2.29P    0.14R    0.00  
Carlisle         26   33   -3      54.97     6.59   -12.94     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    7.12R    0.04  
Walsall          25   32   +1      61.57     7.15     1.87     0.00     0.00     2.76     0.50P    1.03R    0.00  
Yeovil           28   31   -5      53.28     6.31    -9.26     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    9.97R    0.09  
Southend         28   31   -7      53.48     6.00   -11.02     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    8.84R    0.09  
Hartlepool       29   31  -10      52.42     5.95   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.97R    0.13  
Leyton_Orient    27   31  -10      53.62     6.32   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   10.20R    0.11  
Exeter           29   30  -11      51.09     5.97   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.97R    0.22  
Gillingham       28   29   -7      51.27     6.15   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.18R    0.19  
Brighton         27   28  -13      48.28     6.28   -23.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.73R    0.83  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.34     6.58   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    33.55R    1.02  
Tranmere         27   26  -22      43.17     5.83   -36.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.61R    5.20  
Wycombe          29   23  -22      40.94     5.79   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.20R    8.87  
Stockport        27   16  -29      30.93     5.54   -48.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.11R   83.20  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2010, Aldershot vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             27   56  +33      96.57     5.87    58.03    70.15    98.77    99.99    99.23P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          27   49   +3      75.92     6.40     4.27     0.32    13.55    67.75    24.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   45  +13      82.24     7.38    23.54     3.66    51.32    90.06    62.38P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   45   +2      74.18     6.90     4.47     0.23    10.09    57.45    19.72P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         24   43  +31      90.45     6.58    59.58    25.04    90.04    99.38    94.17P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   42   +5      69.12     6.21     8.67     0.01     1.96    29.42     9.06P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   42   +4      70.31     6.54     7.04     0.03     3.04    36.27    11.11P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   41  +10      74.01     7.03    18.75     0.17    11.24    60.31    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            26   40   +5      69.62     6.89     7.89     0.04     3.75    33.94    11.33P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   39   +4      74.27     7.49    11.74     0.35    12.58    59.41    23.70P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            27   38   +5      67.15     6.64     9.73     0.00     1.44    22.73     7.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            26   37   +5      66.53     6.90     8.26     0.00     1.47    20.66     7.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton          28   37   +1      62.04     6.29     1.23     0.00     0.14     5.69     1.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   37   +0      64.30     6.61     1.36     0.00     0.48    11.77     2.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                27   34   -1      58.74     6.57    -4.51     0.00     0.06     2.39     0.58P    0.12R    0.00  
Bradford             26   33   -5      57.12     6.59   -11.70     0.00     0.03     1.57     0.38P    0.19R    0.00  
Macclesfield         25   29   -7      53.67     6.91   -13.91     0.00     0.02     0.58     0.14P    1.06R    0.00  
Barnet               27   29   -9      50.90     6.44   -14.85     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    2.02R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         25   28  -13      48.59     6.39   -24.28     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    4.58R    0.02  
Torquay              27   26   -4      50.03     6.53    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    2.70R    0.02  
Hereford             25   26   -9      52.18     6.92   -13.40     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    1.83R    0.00  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      46.99     6.56   -23.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    6.39R    0.07  
Grimsby              27   20  -21      35.32     5.57   -38.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.30R    3.83  
Darlington           24   11  -38      21.93     4.99   -72.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   96.04  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2010, Altrincham vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.51     5.79    46.74    28.58    99.29    53.28P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.47     6.36    51.62    61.94    99.68    74.26P    0.00     0.00  
York               27   55  +19      90.85     6.21    34.32     8.64    94.90    29.72P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          28   50  +15      76.25     6.31    17.38     0.07    26.15     4.04P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          28   48  +11      80.21     6.15    22.40     0.23    50.40    10.52P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.60     5.92    36.42     0.21    49.49    13.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   27   46  +18      76.31     6.35    25.11     0.08    28.50     5.38P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              26   46  +11      78.83     6.71    19.69     0.23    40.98     7.70P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   42   +9      71.01     6.28    15.75     0.01     7.34     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.39     6.10    -8.34     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         26   38   +4      64.54     6.61     3.45     0.00     1.27     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      55.69     6.00    -7.17     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Wrexham            25   34   +3      64.61     7.09     6.12     0.00     1.61     0.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Histon             26   34   -3      58.26     6.62    -7.79     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.50     6.31     5.39     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.05R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    30   32  -17      49.71     5.55   -24.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.54R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      53.21     6.13    -6.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.83     6.88   -20.20     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.89R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   27  -25      42.17     5.16   -33.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.36R    0.04  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.77     5.59   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.95R    0.03  
Forest_Green       29   26  -24      41.62     5.46   -37.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.28R    0.06  
Gateshead          28   22  -16      40.57     5.89   -26.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.21R    0.07  
Grays_Athletic     29   17  -34      28.06     4.83   -56.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.25R    9.92  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.08     6.18   -26.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.88R   89.88  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1