Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 29 January 2010 at 22:18:34 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 January 2010, Aston_Villa vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         22   51  +37      86.52     4.96    63.11    67.44    89.76    99.04    99.82   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         23   50  +34      80.35     5.23    50.29    14.80    49.94    90.38    97.35    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         23   49  +34      80.90     4.85    56.65    17.59    57.84    93.42    98.53    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       23   41  +20      68.33     5.37    31.37     0.09     1.29     8.32    43.49    86.19     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   38  +14      65.04     5.23    24.97     0.01     0.26     2.34    18.49    69.18     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.87     5.93    19.36     0.04     0.71     4.58    25.51    69.02     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   37  +11      64.28     5.60    18.97     0.01     0.20     1.86    15.41    59.98     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      22   33   -1      56.25     5.79     1.43     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.24    11.59     0.00     0.00  
Everton         22   29   -2      49.72     5.58    -4.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.44     0.23R    0.01  
Fulham          22   27   +0      51.38     5.70     3.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.50     0.13R    0.00  
Blackburn       23   27  -15      41.75     5.08   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     6.71R    0.62  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.62     5.84   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     3.01R    0.21  
Sunderland      22   23  -10      43.85     5.65   -13.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     3.99R    0.42  
Wigan           21   22  -22      39.16     5.65   -36.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.17R    3.66  
Bolton          21   21  -13      37.66     5.46   -28.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.51R    4.83  
West_Ham        22   20   -9      41.34     5.36   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.89R    1.06  
Wolverhampton   22   20  -21      32.31     4.94   -36.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.99R   26.21  
Burnley         22   20  -22      35.52     5.32   -34.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.61R   11.04  
Hull            22   19  -26      33.25     5.29   -38.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.19R   21.87  
Portsmouth      21   15  -14      31.58     5.43   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.56R   30.06  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 January 2010, Newcastle vs Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        26   55  +27      96.49     6.24    47.78    71.30    90.63    99.98    94.42P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     27   52  +24      88.82     6.22    39.98    16.46    55.39    99.49    71.82P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        26   47  +24      86.84     6.56    44.83    10.69    42.99    98.49    61.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   42  +21      79.03     6.62    37.09     1.39     9.04    88.55    33.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          27   42   +3      68.14     6.36     4.20     0.01     0.18    28.75     5.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41   +6      70.57     6.83     9.02     0.06     0.66    44.81     7.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        26   39  +10      70.25     6.88    15.70     0.07     0.70    45.26     9.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        25   38   +2      66.33     7.12     1.62     0.01     0.22    22.39     3.74P    0.11R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   37   +0      65.12     6.96     1.29     0.01     0.08    18.16     3.17P    0.16R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   36   +7      65.55     6.54    12.37     0.00     0.08    19.66     3.98P    0.10R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   35   -4      60.16     6.76    -7.46     0.00     0.00     5.02     0.60P    1.39R    0.05  
QPR              26   34   -3      62.27     6.91    -2.01     0.00     0.01     9.47     1.21P    0.67R    0.02  
Doncaster        25   33   +0      60.97     7.06    -1.12     0.00     0.02     7.55     1.22P    1.11R    0.06  
Barnsley         25   33   -7      57.00     6.91   -15.47     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.25P    4.51R    0.32  
Preston          25   32   -4      59.13     7.01    -6.31     0.00     0.01     4.47     0.64P    2.17R    0.09  
Watford          26   32   -6      58.67     6.90    -7.75     0.00     0.00     3.66     0.47P    2.54R    0.18  
Coventry         27   32   -8      54.46     6.43   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.08P    7.12R    0.55  
Scunthorpe       26   30  -14      51.89     6.56   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   15.60R    1.73  
Ipswich          26   29   -6      54.20     6.85    -9.59     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.14P    8.67R    0.81  
Derby            27   29  -12      48.22     6.15   -22.41     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   30.60R    3.69  
Sheff_Wed        27   28  -13      48.51     6.28   -22.70     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   29.55R    3.78  
Plymouth         25   24  -13      45.20     6.75   -23.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   49.86R   12.14  
Reading          26   23  -17      44.22     6.57   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   56.18R   15.38  
Peterborough     27   18  -17      36.77     6.20   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.65R   61.20  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2010, Brentford vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          28   60  +33      96.80     5.84    54.40    50.51    84.16    99.91    89.40P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     26   57  +27      95.93     6.49    44.12    40.36    76.34    99.75    84.55P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         27   54  +20      86.78     6.42    31.32     4.88    18.72    94.74    38.06P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   49  +15      85.59     6.54    29.17     2.94    13.60    92.83    35.68P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          25   47   +8      79.10     7.05    12.90     0.52     2.90    66.28    13.89P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   43  +10      73.19     6.56    16.24     0.03     0.31    33.33     7.80P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.28     7.15    32.24     0.74     3.83    71.37    22.52P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   42   +4      70.73     6.55     7.79     0.00     0.08    19.77     3.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   25   38   -2      67.28     7.06    -1.51     0.01     0.05     9.84     1.42P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford        27   34   -3      59.84     6.38    -2.80     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.16P    1.02R    0.00  
Carlisle         25   32   -3      55.91     6.85   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P    5.75R    0.02  
Walsall          24   31   +1      61.81     7.34     1.58     0.00     0.00     3.16     0.63P    1.11R    0.01  
Yeovil           27   31   -4      54.67     6.46    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    6.60R    0.03  
Hartlepool       28   31   -9      52.53     6.15   -14.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.71R    0.10  
Southampton      26   30  +13      65.91     6.73    26.44     0.00     0.01     7.37     2.23P    0.13R    0.00  
Southend         27   30   -7      53.68     6.31   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    8.87R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient    26   30  -10      53.44     6.56   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   10.90R    0.12  
Exeter           28   29  -11      50.81     6.20   -15.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.08R    0.27  
Gillingham       27   28   -7      51.99     6.46   -10.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   13.80R    0.19  
Brighton         26   28  -12      49.61     6.52   -22.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   26.75R    0.41  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.18     6.59   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.42R    0.96  
Tranmere         26   25  -22      41.98     6.00   -39.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.40R    7.31  
Wycombe          28   20  -23      37.98     5.95   -33.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.84R   18.57  
Stockport        26   16  -27      31.60     5.71   -48.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.52R   71.95  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 January 2010, Burton_Albion vs Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             27   56  +33      96.37     5.89    57.70    72.00    98.75    99.99    99.20P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          26   46   +2      73.69     6.68     2.39     0.21     8.95    54.80    18.20P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   45  +13      82.11     7.38    23.29     3.86    51.04    89.73    61.93P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   45   +2      74.09     6.93     4.33     0.25    10.58    57.22    19.86P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   42   +6      71.14     6.49    10.64     0.04     4.61    42.59    14.13P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         23   40  +29      89.53     6.76    58.88    22.91    87.82    99.08    92.91P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            25   40  +10      76.00     7.15    21.39     0.45    18.98    70.62    33.93P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            26   40   +5      69.71     6.80     8.06     0.04     3.81    34.89    11.47P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         26   39   +3      68.04     6.80     4.92     0.01     1.85    25.93     7.47P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            26   38   +6      69.24     6.81    12.02     0.01     3.31    33.87    11.20P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   23   36   +3      71.78     7.74     9.35     0.22     8.15    46.99    17.09P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          27   36   +1      63.13     6.57     2.38     0.00     0.36     8.80     2.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   36   +0      64.31     6.85     0.72     0.00     0.71    12.65     3.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            25   34   +3      64.47     7.09     5.65     0.00     0.86    14.52     4.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                26   34   +0      60.74     6.87    -2.46     0.00     0.18     5.38     1.35P    0.05R    0.00  
Bradford             25   30   -6      54.42     6.84   -14.66     0.00     0.02     0.81     0.21P    0.63R    0.00  
Macclesfield         25   29   -7      53.86     6.94   -13.67     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.17P    0.90R    0.00  
Barnet               26   29   -7      52.02     6.64   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    1.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   28  -13      48.57     6.46   -24.33     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    3.92R    0.03  
Torquay              26   26   -3      52.26     6.84    -5.55     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.10P    1.33R    0.01  
Hereford             24   26   -7      54.03     7.26   -10.54     0.00     0.01     0.80     0.18P    0.95R    0.00  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      46.88     6.52   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.31R    0.11  
Grimsby              26   19  -21      34.30     5.63   -41.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.00R    5.07  
Darlington           24   11  -38      21.94     5.02   -72.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.72R   94.78  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 January 2010, Histon vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.39     5.85    46.57    28.89    99.11    52.97P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.34     6.37    51.45    61.29    99.59    73.31P    0.00     0.00  
York               27   55  +19      90.71     6.22    34.25     8.29    94.15    29.01P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          28   48  +11      80.71     6.02    23.28     0.23    53.11    11.23P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   47  +12      74.26     6.51    13.79     0.04    16.96     2.72P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.51     5.89    36.44     0.17    47.65    12.28P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              25   46  +12      82.67     6.84    24.38     1.06    63.61    14.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   26   43  +13      73.22     6.61    17.71     0.03    14.78     2.51P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   42   +9      70.74     6.27    15.43     0.00     6.43     1.10P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.20     6.08    -8.62     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         25   38   +6      67.45     6.97     7.84     0.00     3.65     0.66P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      55.94     5.97    -6.83     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Histon             26   34   -3      58.71     6.61    -7.24     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.38     6.30     5.23     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    29   32  -12      51.91     5.85   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49R    0.00  
Wrexham            24   31   +1      61.41     7.23     2.27     0.00     0.58     0.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      52.71     6.11    -7.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.40     6.79   -21.04     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.75R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.87     5.56   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.65R    0.03  
Forest_Green       28   26  -21      43.04     5.72   -34.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.28R    0.03  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   24  -26      38.85     5.25   -37.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.13R    0.18  
Gateshead          28   22  -16      40.85     5.96   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.19R    0.05  
Grays_Athletic     29   17  -34      27.85     4.83   -57.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.16R   11.21  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.46     6.24   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.75R   88.50  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1