Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 28 January 2010 at 22:18:38 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 January 2010, Aston_Villa vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         22   51  +37      86.39     4.99    62.91    66.33    89.34    98.92    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         23   50  +34      80.21     5.23    50.09    14.53    48.13    90.01    97.19    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         23   49  +34      81.09     4.83    57.08    18.94    59.89    93.84    98.65    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       23   41  +20      68.35     5.38    31.44     0.11     1.38     8.37    43.34    86.05     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   38  +14      65.13     5.28    25.16     0.02     0.30     2.49    18.93    69.43     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.76     5.94    19.12     0.06     0.76     4.38    24.79    68.15     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   37  +11      64.39     5.59    19.11     0.01     0.20     1.92    15.80    60.52     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      22   33   -1      56.39     5.77     1.59     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.27    11.68     0.00     0.00  
Everton         22   29   -2      49.76     5.61    -4.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.54     0.19R    0.00  
Fulham          22   27   +0      51.48     5.63     3.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     2.57     0.09R    0.00  
Blackburn       23   27  -15      41.55     5.05   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.05R    0.63  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.62     5.80   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     2.98R    0.24  
Sunderland      22   23  -10      43.82     5.66   -13.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     3.96R    0.48  
Wigan           21   22  -22      38.93     5.67   -36.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    21.39R    4.18  
Bolton          21   21  -13      37.77     5.46   -28.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.58R    4.74  
West_Ham        22   20   -9      41.36     5.40   -13.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     8.09R    1.05  
Wolverhampton   22   20  -21      32.40     4.89   -36.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.17R   25.24  
Burnley         22   20  -22      35.44     5.34   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.53R   11.31  
Hull            22   19  -26      33.27     5.28   -38.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.67R   21.78  
Portsmouth      21   15  -14      31.59     5.43   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.31R   30.35  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 January 2010, Newcastle vs Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        26   55  +27      96.40     6.29    47.64    71.62    90.74    99.97    94.36P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     27   52  +24      88.86     6.15    40.02    16.72    55.95    99.55    72.32P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        26   47  +24      86.71     6.54    44.58    10.25    42.50    98.60    61.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   42  +21      78.88     6.60    36.80     1.26     8.86    87.91    33.01P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          27   42   +3      68.08     6.35     4.13     0.00     0.18    28.40     5.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41   +6      70.43     6.82     8.84     0.07     0.66    43.76     7.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        26   39  +10      70.16     6.88    15.60     0.05     0.66    44.73     9.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        25   38   +2      66.51     7.16     1.88     0.01     0.21    23.73     4.09P    0.13R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   37   +0      65.06     6.94     1.23     0.00     0.08    17.89     3.01P    0.15R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    27   36   +7      65.50     6.55    12.30     0.00     0.07    19.80     4.06P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   35   -4      60.31     6.86    -7.28     0.00     0.02     5.58     0.75P    1.27R    0.05  
QPR              26   34   -3      62.30     6.98    -1.97     0.00     0.02     9.86     1.36P    0.71R    0.03  
Doncaster        25   33   +0      60.91     7.08    -1.16     0.00     0.02     7.61     1.30P    1.10R    0.03  
Barnsley         25   33   -7      57.21     6.87   -15.10     0.00     0.00     2.28     0.25P    4.04R    0.28  
Preston          25   32   -4      59.17     7.04    -6.24     0.00     0.01     4.64     0.72P    2.10R    0.09  
Watford          26   32   -6      58.70     6.89    -7.66     0.00     0.01     3.67     0.48P    2.43R    0.12  
Coventry         27   32   -8      54.61     6.46   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.10P    6.90R    0.59  
Scunthorpe       26   30  -14      51.82     6.56   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P   15.59R    1.54  
Ipswich          26   29   -6      54.31     6.77    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.13P    8.16R    0.77  
Derby            27   29  -12      48.16     6.18   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   31.10R    3.86  
Sheff_Wed        27   28  -13      48.53     6.27   -22.67     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   29.47R    3.67  
Plymouth         25   24  -13      45.03     6.69   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   51.25R   12.52  
Reading          26   23  -17      44.31     6.59   -27.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   56.06R   15.44  
Peterborough     27   18  -17      36.79     6.24   -29.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.41R   60.99  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2010, Brentford vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          28   60  +33      96.71     5.84    54.15    49.73    83.49    99.92    88.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     26   57  +27      95.90     6.53    44.12    40.71    75.98    99.70    84.27P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         27   54  +20      86.88     6.48    31.45     5.18    19.40    94.72    38.56P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   49  +15      85.62     6.57    29.25     3.06    13.85    92.49    36.04P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          25   47   +8      79.26     6.97    13.18     0.65     3.10    67.18    14.28P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   43  +10      73.20     6.51    16.28     0.02     0.28    32.98     7.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.25     7.10    32.13     0.63     3.76    71.12    22.35P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   42   +4      70.71     6.54     7.73     0.01     0.08    19.55     3.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   25   38   -2      67.38     7.06    -1.36     0.00     0.05    10.07     1.58P    0.07R    0.00  
Brentford        27   34   -3      60.00     6.38    -2.59     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.17P    1.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         25   32   -3      55.86     6.89   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P    5.89R    0.02  
Walsall          24   31   +1      61.81     7.35     1.58     0.00     0.00     3.26     0.68P    1.04R    0.01  
Yeovil           27   31   -4      54.54     6.52    -8.70     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P    6.87R    0.05  
Hartlepool       28   31   -9      52.64     6.12   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   11.49R    0.09  
Southampton      26   30  +13      65.79     6.80    26.26     0.00     0.01     7.35     2.16P    0.21R    0.00  
Southend         27   30   -7      53.47     6.27   -11.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    9.14R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient    26   30  -10      53.49     6.55   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   10.63R    0.14  
Exeter           28   29  -11      50.73     6.20   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.46R    0.31  
Gillingham       27   28   -7      52.04     6.42   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   13.62R    0.21  
Brighton         26   28  -12      49.70     6.51   -22.53     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   26.08R    0.38  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.23     6.53   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   32.90R    0.93  
Tranmere         26   25  -22      41.95     5.95   -39.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.90R    7.34  
Wycombe          28   20  -23      37.89     5.92   -33.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.16R   18.91  
Stockport        26   16  -27      31.62     5.72   -48.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.53R   71.56  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 January 2010, Burton_Albion vs Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             27   56  +33      96.43     5.88    57.85    71.89    98.81    99.97    99.27P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          26   46   +2      73.80     6.69     2.53     0.20     9.23    55.52    18.69P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   45  +13      82.18     7.30    23.40     4.03    51.19    90.21    62.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   45   +2      74.04     6.93     4.24     0.24    10.43    57.11    19.53P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   42   +6      71.15     6.54    10.64     0.06     4.70    42.29    14.18P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         23   40  +29      89.67     6.80    59.22    22.90    87.88    99.06    92.84P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            25   40  +10      76.00     7.17    21.31     0.38    18.63    70.78    33.82P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            26   40   +5      69.70     6.79     8.02     0.04     3.61    34.58    10.95P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         26   39   +3      68.01     6.89     4.80     0.02     2.08    25.99     7.89P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            26   38   +6      69.40     6.85    12.27     0.02     3.60    34.57    11.51P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   23   36   +3      71.67     7.79     9.21     0.21     7.82    45.95    16.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton          27   36   +1      62.92     6.58     2.00     0.00     0.30     8.42     2.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   36   +0      64.38     6.81     0.87     0.00     0.63    12.65     3.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            25   34   +3      64.62     7.08     5.90     0.00     0.86    14.84     4.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                26   34   +0      60.75     6.83    -2.43     0.00     0.18     5.26     1.26P    0.04R    0.00  
Bradford             25   30   -6      54.53     6.89   -14.50     0.00     0.02     0.82     0.21P    0.57R    0.00  
Macclesfield         25   29   -7      53.84     6.88   -13.79     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.13P    0.81R    0.00  
Barnet               26   29   -7      51.83     6.58   -13.91     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.05P    1.33R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   28  -13      48.33     6.42   -24.67     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    4.09R    0.02  
Torquay              26   26   -3      52.31     6.91    -5.57     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.10P    1.35R    0.00  
Hereford             24   26   -7      53.87     7.19   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.16P    0.98R    0.02  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      46.81     6.54   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.45R    0.07  
Grimsby              26   19  -21      34.28     5.67   -41.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.64R    5.37  
Darlington           24   11  -38      22.10     5.04   -71.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.73R   94.51  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 January 2010, Histon vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.50     5.88    46.71    29.34    99.21    53.53P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.41     6.35    51.63    61.13    99.67    73.35P    0.00     0.00  
York               27   55  +19      90.61     6.19    34.07     7.99    94.17    29.13P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          28   48  +11      80.50     6.14    22.94     0.23    51.36    10.40P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   47  +12      74.32     6.50    13.88     0.04    17.23     2.61P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.62     5.88    36.63     0.19    48.75    12.75P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              25   46  +12      82.57     6.94    24.19     1.05    63.17    13.69P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   26   43  +13      73.29     6.59    17.82     0.03    15.18     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   42   +9      70.76     6.30    15.46     0.00     6.71     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.31     6.11    -8.44     0.00     0.17     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         25   38   +6      67.46     6.92     7.79     0.00     3.61     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      55.95     6.01    -6.78     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.08R    0.00  
Histon             26   34   -3      58.42     6.57    -7.64     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.29     6.24     5.03     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    29   32  -12      51.99     5.84   -18.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.50R    0.00  
Wrexham            24   31   +1      61.29     7.23     2.09     0.00     0.57     0.13P    0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      52.76     6.14    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.63     6.77   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.66R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.93     5.55   -28.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.97R    0.02  
Forest_Green       28   26  -21      43.16     5.74   -34.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.98R    0.03  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   24  -26      38.81     5.29   -37.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.77R    0.21  
Gateshead          28   22  -16      40.73     5.89   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.42R    0.07  
Grays_Athletic     29   17  -34      27.80     4.76   -57.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.33R   10.90  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.50     6.14   -26.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.80R   88.77  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1