Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 25 January 2010 at 22:18:24 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Man_Utd vs Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         23   50  +34      80.46     5.27    50.43    18.04    51.41    90.34    97.15    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   48  +34      81.15     5.14    56.69    22.32    60.27    92.83    98.13    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.45     5.26    60.48    59.35    85.28    98.03    99.53    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   38  +18      67.08     5.66    29.95     0.11     1.05     6.29    33.11    77.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.67     5.97    19.08     0.10     0.79     4.55    23.92    65.63     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   37  +14      66.38     5.53    26.75     0.04     0.71     4.63    26.51    74.32     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.88     5.95    19.42     0.04     0.47     3.15    18.95    61.23     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.67     6.01     4.40     0.00     0.03     0.17     2.36    16.03     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.32     5.93     4.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30     3.92     0.08R    0.00  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.17     5.86    -6.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.88     0.67R    0.03  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.81     5.92   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18     2.98R    0.25  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.38     5.36   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    11.77R    1.64  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      45.12     6.00   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.27     2.98R    0.34  
Wigan           20   22  -21      39.78     5.94   -36.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    18.22R    3.14  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.32     5.58   -34.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.62R    8.89  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.44     5.74   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.02R    1.28  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      31.90     5.14   -38.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.89R   29.13  
Hull            22   19  -26      33.19     5.31   -39.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.84R   21.05  
Bolton          20   18  -14      36.80     5.79   -28.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.01R    7.48  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.16     5.87   -25.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.93R   26.77  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Blackpool vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        25   52  +25      95.44     6.49    46.63    69.27    89.88    99.95    93.80P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.40     6.53    33.74    11.55    42.76    98.36    62.47P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   46  +24      87.99     6.82    46.36    18.26    58.90    98.73    72.62P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   41   +3      69.27     6.70     5.18     0.06     0.57    34.73     7.80P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      74.99     7.01    26.74     0.63     4.59    70.74    22.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        26   39  +10      69.84     6.94    15.08     0.08     1.06    41.52     9.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.52     7.06     5.45     0.06     0.58    32.49     6.26P    0.07R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.56     7.46     3.91     0.06     0.82    33.09     6.89P    0.06R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.50     7.13     3.43     0.02     0.31    23.14     4.91P    0.13R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      64.07     7.15     2.58     0.01     0.15    14.82     2.81P    0.34R    0.02  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.69     7.24     4.88     0.00     0.15    17.30     3.21P    0.33R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    26   33   +4      62.21     6.89     6.79     0.00     0.06     9.71     2.17P    0.59R    0.04  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      63.87     7.44     4.40     0.01     0.14    15.73     3.32P    0.47R    0.02  
Watford          26   32   -6      58.46     6.95    -8.03     0.00     0.01     3.29     0.46P    2.74R    0.21  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.19     6.56   -14.89     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.09P    8.18R    0.85  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      55.02     7.14   -17.01     0.00     0.00     1.50     0.18P    8.44R    0.94  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.17     7.33    -7.93     0.00     0.01     2.93     0.48P    4.71R    0.46  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.65     6.37   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   23.61R    3.14  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.69     7.15   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.12P   10.80R    1.41  
Sheff_Wed        26   28  -11      50.33     6.61   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   21.24R    2.94  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.34     6.80   -27.73     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   28.01R    5.35  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.80     6.84   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    46.21R   12.62  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      43.06     7.01   -25.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    61.66R   23.55  
Peterborough     26   18  -16      38.71     6.56   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.41R   48.43  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 25 January 2010, Charlton vs Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          27   57  +32      95.29     6.15    53.47    30.65    77.57    99.80    85.22P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     25   57  +30      99.69     6.64    50.80    63.21    89.50    99.93    93.32P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         27   54  +20      86.85     6.44    31.45     3.76    18.11    95.73    38.36P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   46  +13      83.97     6.81    27.16     1.55     9.12    89.53    30.75P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          24   44   +5      75.37     7.29     6.53     0.18     1.22    48.27     8.65P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.56     7.10    32.66     0.61     4.03    75.36    24.65P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          26   42   +6      72.23     6.72     9.97     0.02     0.20    31.23     5.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         26   40   +8      71.66     6.78    14.34     0.03     0.22    29.61     6.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   25   38   -2      67.24     7.08    -1.58     0.00     0.03    11.64     1.75P    0.10R    0.00  
Brentford        26   33   -3      60.01     6.61    -3.06     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.24P    1.19R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   +2      63.11     7.59     2.41     0.00     0.01     5.81     1.14P    0.89R    0.00  
Yeovil           26   31   -3      56.73     6.74    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.08P    4.06R    0.03  
Southend         26   30   -5      54.92     6.48    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    6.32R    0.04  
Hartlepool       27   30   -9      53.34     6.38   -14.03     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   10.04R    0.10  
Leyton_Orient    26   30  -10      53.63     6.51   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   10.09R    0.14  
Southampton      25   29  +13      66.27     6.96    26.51     0.00     0.01    10.39     3.15P    0.17R    0.00  
Carlisle         24   29   -4      53.08     7.08   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   13.05R    0.09  
Exeter           27   29  -10      52.82     6.49   -13.33     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   11.52R    0.14  
Gillingham       26   27   -7      51.66     6.65   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   15.58R    0.26  
Brighton         25   27  -12      50.17     6.76   -22.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   24.09R    0.51  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.19     6.58   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.82R    0.93  
Tranmere         25   22  -23      39.46     6.16   -41.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.26R   14.56  
Wycombe          28   20  -23      38.19     5.97   -33.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.91R   17.32  
Stockport        25   15  -27      31.95     6.04   -48.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.90R   65.87  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Aldershot vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             26   55  +33      97.90     6.09    59.88    82.49    99.17    99.99    99.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          26   46   +2      73.90     6.68     2.59     0.23    10.22    54.49    18.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   45   +2      74.09     6.93     4.35     0.25    11.66    56.14    20.47P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            23   42  +12      79.68     7.67    21.06     2.09    38.48    81.62    50.18P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   42   +6      71.27     6.50    10.84     0.07     5.25    41.80    14.53P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            24   40  +11      77.93     7.44    23.22     0.87    29.52    77.14    42.99P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            25   40   +8      71.93     7.02    12.31     0.12     8.21    46.06    17.58P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         25   39   +4      69.88     7.09     6.60     0.06     4.59    34.45    11.52P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.20     7.28    54.50    13.66    79.49    97.22    87.04P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            25   37   +6      70.01     7.18    12.68     0.04     5.13    37.34    13.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                26   34   +0      60.83     6.87    -2.37     0.00     0.24     5.24     1.35P    0.06R    0.00  
Port_Vale            24   33   +3      63.55     7.38     3.64     0.00     0.86    12.06     3.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.69     8.08     7.54     0.12     6.19    35.91    13.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Northampton          26   33   +0      62.24     6.80     2.45     0.00     0.33     7.22     2.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   33   -1      63.44     6.98     0.76     0.00     0.59    10.25     2.73P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford             25   30   -6      54.44     6.85   -14.63     0.00     0.02     0.78     0.17P    0.63R    0.00  
Macclesfield         24   28   -7      53.84     7.19   -14.21     0.00     0.03     0.71     0.16P    1.01R    0.01  
Barnet               25   28   -7      52.45     6.90   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    1.22R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         24   28  -12      49.49     6.70   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    3.27R    0.03  
Hereford             24   26   -7      53.78     7.11   -10.94     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.12P    0.93R    0.01  
Torquay              25   25   -3      52.65     7.17    -5.57     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.15P    1.36R    0.03  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      47.08     6.56   -23.31     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.21R    0.09  
Grimsby              26   19  -21      34.15     5.64   -41.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.56R    6.30  
Darlington           23   11  -37      22.53     5.20   -72.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   93.53  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Altrincham vs Hayes_&_Yeading; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.53     5.85    46.77    29.84    99.43    54.41P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.37     6.41    51.48    61.09    99.67    73.59P    0.00     0.00  
York               27   55  +19      90.55     6.22    33.90     8.13    94.95    29.57P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   47  +12      74.59     6.49    14.26     0.01    21.31     3.12P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.82     5.81    36.94     0.20    55.27    14.61P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          27   45   +9      78.58     6.44    20.45     0.16    43.47     8.49P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              24   43  +10      79.74     7.24    20.35     0.50    50.21     9.95P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   25   42  +13      74.34     6.90    18.80     0.08    22.46     3.89P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      27   39   +6      69.77     6.46    13.65     0.00     6.50     1.14P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.22     6.10    -8.69     0.00     0.26     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         25   38   +6      67.72     6.97     8.08     0.00     4.89     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      56.01     6.04    -6.81     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Histon             25   34   -1      60.80     6.97    -4.04     0.00     0.61     0.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.28     6.26     5.01     0.00     0.08     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    28   32  -11      54.74     6.21   -14.73     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Wrexham            23   30   +1      60.58     7.55     0.44     0.00     0.84     0.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      53.05     6.13    -6.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.59     6.81   -20.81     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.48R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      43.02     5.54   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.53R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   24  -26      38.87     5.26   -37.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.29R    0.24  
Forest_Green       27   23  -22      39.89     5.84   -37.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.25R    0.23  
Gateshead          27   22  -14      42.31     6.17   -23.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.75R    0.06  
Grays_Athletic     28   17  -31      28.59     4.94   -55.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.37R    9.82  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.54     6.23   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   89.63  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1