Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 24 January 2010 at 22:18:29 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Man_Utd vs Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         23   50  +34      80.28     5.25    50.20    17.12    50.44    89.86    97.06    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   48  +34      81.14     5.15    56.72    22.59    60.61    92.67    98.05    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.46     5.24    60.55    59.96    85.65    97.90    99.55    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   38  +18      67.23     5.66    30.17     0.09     1.14     6.70    33.88    78.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.85     5.98    19.44     0.11     0.90     4.88    24.43    66.59     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   37  +14      66.41     5.48    26.78     0.07     0.73     4.60    26.10    74.34     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.84     5.95    19.41     0.05     0.50     3.20    18.39    60.57     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.67     5.99     4.38     0.00     0.01     0.19     2.26    15.87     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.27     5.93     4.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.24     3.59     0.09R    0.01  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.24     5.89    -6.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.91     0.69R    0.03  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.89     5.89   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     2.75R    0.21  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.24     5.39   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.81R    1.70  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      44.83     5.98   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     3.26R    0.39  
Wigan           20   22  -21      39.78     5.93   -36.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    17.97R    3.18  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.26     5.59   -34.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.22R    9.40  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.36     5.73   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.22R    1.48  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      32.09     5.17   -38.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.59R   28.05  
Hull            22   19  -26      33.16     5.30   -39.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.95R   21.48  
Bolton          20   18  -14      36.82     5.86   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    31.33R    8.01  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.30     5.83   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.14R   26.05  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Blackpool vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        25   52  +25      95.10     6.56    46.17    68.05    89.27    99.94    93.50P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.25     6.58    33.54    12.26    42.81    98.25    61.93P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   46  +24      87.82     6.82    46.12    18.60    59.11    98.66    72.75P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   41   +3      69.19     6.68     5.09     0.06     0.61    34.04     7.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      74.98     7.08    26.71     0.67     4.78    70.31    22.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        26   39  +10      70.20     6.94    15.62     0.13     1.18    43.70    10.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.63     7.12     5.63     0.06     0.67    32.92     6.40P    0.05R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.52     7.51     3.83     0.11     0.84    32.53     6.86P    0.09R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.19     7.08     3.01     0.02     0.25    21.76     4.52P    0.14R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      63.91     7.18     2.36     0.01     0.09    14.57     2.93P    0.39R    0.01  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.89     7.18     5.21     0.01     0.17    17.83     3.35P    0.27R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    26   33   +4      62.22     6.86     6.74     0.00     0.04     9.25     2.02P    0.58R    0.03  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      64.12     7.36     4.76     0.02     0.16    16.23     3.36P    0.39R    0.03  
Watford          26   32   -6      58.87     6.91    -7.37     0.00     0.01     3.56     0.54P    2.37R    0.19  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.25     6.66   -14.73     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.11P    8.15R    0.81  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      55.05     7.18   -17.00     0.00     0.01     1.43     0.18P    8.45R    1.05  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.04     7.37    -8.18     0.00     0.01     2.98     0.47P    4.87R    0.45  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.78     6.44   -21.18     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   23.04R    3.19  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.74     7.11   -10.98     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.13P   10.37R    1.32  
Sheff_Wed        26   28  -11      50.25     6.68   -19.94     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   21.81R    3.09  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.36     6.79   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   27.62R    4.98  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.79     6.84   -24.18     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   46.32R   12.54  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      43.02     6.95   -25.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   62.09R   22.85  
Peterborough     26   18  -16      38.56     6.52   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.98R   49.44  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Bristol_Rovers vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          27   57  +32      95.33     6.10    53.58    29.76    71.31    99.82    81.17P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     25   57  +30      99.35     6.62    50.29    59.04    85.39    99.92    90.67P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         26   54  +21      90.07     6.61    35.81     8.94    30.83    98.07    49.39P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   46  +13      84.08     6.85    27.35     1.60     8.10    89.47    29.45P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          24   44   +5      75.44     7.20     6.64     0.17     0.92    48.23     8.41P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.41     7.09    32.44     0.46     3.09    74.40    22.67P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   42   +6      72.10     6.75     9.80     0.02     0.18    30.23     5.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         26   40   +8      71.76     6.76    14.52     0.01     0.13    29.61     6.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   25   38   -2      67.21     7.11    -1.63     0.00     0.03    11.44     1.70P    0.09R    0.00  
Brentford        26   33   -3      59.83     6.67    -3.29     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.25P    1.15R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   +2      63.03     7.61     2.32     0.00     0.01     5.77     1.09P    0.72R    0.00  
Yeovil           26   31   -3      56.72     6.79    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    3.73R    0.02  
Southend         26   30   -5      54.81     6.48    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    6.03R    0.05  
Hartlepool       27   30   -9      53.43     6.37   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.05R    0.09  
Southampton      25   29  +13      66.32     7.03    26.56     0.00     0.01    10.56     3.03P    0.17R    0.00  
Carlisle         24   29   -4      53.20     7.10   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   11.83R    0.12  
Exeter           27   29  -10      53.00     6.52   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   10.31R    0.13  
Gillingham       26   27   -7      52.04     6.71   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   13.69R    0.21  
Leyton_Orient    25   27  -11      50.21     6.66   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   21.98R    0.53  
Brighton         25   27  -12      50.31     6.75   -22.43     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.97R    0.49  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.18     6.51   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   31.12R    0.89  
Tranmere         25   22  -23      39.61     6.15   -41.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.72R   13.92  
Wycombe          28   20  -23      38.02     5.93   -33.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.73R   17.91  
Stockport        25   15  -27      31.93     6.04   -48.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.71R   65.64  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Aldershot vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             26   55  +33      97.89     6.11    59.95    82.72    99.14    99.99    99.44P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          26   46   +2      73.93     6.68     2.69     0.23    10.17    54.80    18.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   45   +2      73.97     6.87     4.12     0.19    10.90    55.35    19.53P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            23   42  +12      79.73     7.69    21.16     2.18    38.58    81.43    50.44P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   42   +6      71.29     6.49    10.87     0.06     5.25    41.90    14.45P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            24   40  +11      78.03     7.52    23.41     0.97    30.12    77.13    43.71P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            25   40   +8      72.18     7.09    12.72     0.15     8.81    47.52    18.83P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         25   39   +4      69.94     7.16     6.68     0.07     4.71    34.68    11.59P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.19     7.22    54.47    13.26    79.26    97.17    86.63P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            25   37   +6      69.85     7.13    12.39     0.04     4.70    36.31    12.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                26   34   +0      60.80     6.84    -2.38     0.00     0.19     5.14     1.37P    0.06R    0.00  
Port_Vale            24   33   +3      63.56     7.37     3.55     0.01     0.90    12.17     3.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.67     8.12     7.50     0.13     6.35    35.56    13.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Northampton          26   33   +0      62.34     6.84     2.57     0.00     0.31     7.49     2.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   33   -1      63.35     7.08     0.61     0.00     0.54    10.32     2.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford             25   30   -6      54.26     6.82   -15.06     0.00     0.02     0.74     0.17P    0.69R    0.01  
Macclesfield         24   28   -7      53.78     7.22   -14.33     0.00     0.02     0.78     0.20P    1.05R    0.00  
Barnet               25   28   -7      52.37     6.89   -13.74     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.07P    1.35R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         24   28  -12      49.55     6.66   -24.25     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    2.98R    0.02  
Hereford             24   26   -7      53.91     7.24   -10.77     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.17P    1.03R    0.01  
Torquay              25   25   -3      52.77     7.16    -5.32     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.11P    1.34R    0.02  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      47.08     6.58   -23.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.23R    0.09  
Grimsby              26   19  -21      34.20     5.65   -41.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.49R    5.92  
Darlington           23   11  -37      22.36     5.16   -72.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.71R   93.93  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Altrincham vs Hayes_&_Yeading; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.47     5.86    46.64    29.16    99.35    53.46P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.43     6.34    51.55    61.89    99.72    74.38P    0.00     0.00  
York               27   55  +19      90.62     6.19    34.03     8.08    95.47    29.60P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   47  +12      74.51     6.51    14.13     0.03    21.34     3.04P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.74     5.84    36.84     0.20    55.04    14.75P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          27   45   +9      78.54     6.39    20.40     0.12    43.42     8.71P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              24   43  +10      79.71     7.21    20.28     0.45    50.34     9.80P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   25   42  +13      74.18     6.89    18.55     0.06    22.28     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      27   39   +6      69.66     6.50    13.44     0.00     6.51     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.19     6.09    -8.70     0.00     0.25     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         25   38   +6      67.83     6.85     8.21     0.01     4.89     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      56.17     6.04    -6.56     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Histon             25   34   -1      60.76     6.89    -4.17     0.00     0.52     0.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.32     6.30     5.05     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    28   32  -11      54.71     6.19   -14.69     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.19R    0.00  
Wrexham            23   30   +1      60.68     7.49     0.60     0.00     0.75     0.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      52.92     6.08    -6.78     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.36R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.73     6.81   -20.58     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.49R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.93     5.56   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.12R    0.03  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   24  -26      38.90     5.27   -37.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.68R    0.25  
Forest_Green       27   23  -22      39.99     5.84   -37.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.47R    0.19  
Gateshead          27   22  -14      42.32     6.14   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.43R    0.06  
Grays_Athletic     28   17  -31      28.54     4.95   -55.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.40R    9.61  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.60     6.17   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.73R   89.85  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1