Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 23 January 2010 at 22:18:36 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Man_Utd vs Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         23   50  +34      80.38     5.26    50.33    17.61    50.93    90.16    97.04    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   48  +34      81.10     5.18    56.67    22.62    60.41    92.42    97.91    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.42     5.23    60.42    59.40    85.31    98.03    99.59    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   38  +18      67.05     5.68    29.92     0.11     1.13     6.33    32.69    77.46     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.88     5.98    19.46     0.12     0.92     4.80    24.83    66.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   37  +14      66.36     5.56    26.71     0.07     0.74     4.90    26.42    74.09     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.86     5.98    19.41     0.06     0.55     3.18    18.87    60.77     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.62     6.01     4.30     0.00     0.01     0.17     2.26    15.62     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.46     5.93     4.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33     4.05     0.06R    0.00  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.17     5.86    -6.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.83     0.67R    0.04  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.85     5.94   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19     2.85R    0.25  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.32     5.35   -25.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.05R    1.65  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      45.02     5.97   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25     2.93R    0.29  
Wigan           20   22  -21      39.96     5.94   -35.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    17.48R    3.01  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.40     5.65   -34.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.32R    9.00  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.42     5.77   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.18R    1.46  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      32.06     5.15   -38.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.58R   27.77  
Hull            22   19  -26      33.12     5.33   -39.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.19R   21.36  
Bolton          20   18  -14      36.68     5.86   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.80R    8.12  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.03     5.79   -25.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.87R   27.05  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Blackpool vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        25   52  +25      95.18     6.55    46.29    67.98    89.33    99.93    93.57P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.43     6.59    33.80    12.39    43.23    98.26    63.09P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   46  +24      87.91     6.80    46.25    18.48    58.61    98.65    72.41P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   41   +3      69.16     6.66     5.06     0.04     0.61    33.97     7.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      75.03     7.14    26.80     0.76     4.82    70.85    22.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        26   39  +10      70.01     6.87    15.29     0.11     1.14    42.73    10.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.39     7.08     5.23     0.08     0.61    31.83     5.99P    0.05R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.45     7.46     3.70     0.08     0.75    32.24     6.60P    0.07R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.27     7.16     3.18     0.03     0.29    22.29     4.40P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      64.01     7.27     2.53     0.01     0.15    15.15     3.03P    0.39R    0.02  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.90     7.24     5.28     0.01     0.22    17.94     3.39P    0.35R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    26   33   +4      62.16     6.82     6.64     0.00     0.04     9.41     2.02P    0.53R    0.02  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      63.99     7.46     4.55     0.02     0.19    16.25     3.37P    0.44R    0.01  
Watford          26   32   -6      58.61     7.01    -7.80     0.00     0.01     3.64     0.52P    2.62R    0.20  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.29     6.66   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.11P    8.17R    0.86  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      55.04     7.23   -17.06     0.00     0.01     1.50     0.19P    8.45R    0.96  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.23     7.43    -7.85     0.00     0.02     3.17     0.57P    4.76R    0.46  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.90     6.46   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   22.73R    2.88  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.93     7.09   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.18P   10.09R    1.24  
Sheff_Wed        26   28  -11      50.27     6.67   -19.88     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   21.39R    2.95  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.33     6.80   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   27.94R    5.14  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.73     6.89   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   46.95R   12.85  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      43.07     7.00   -25.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    61.73R   22.76  
Peterborough     26   18  -16      38.50     6.52   -27.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.24R   49.64  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Bristol_Rovers vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Norwich          27   57  +32      95.35     6.12    53.60    28.89    70.88    99.83    80.88P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     25   57  +30      99.58     6.61    50.56    59.97    85.91    99.94    91.20P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         26   54  +21      90.24     6.59    36.14     9.14    31.11    98.27    49.96P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   46  +13      83.98     6.81    27.18     1.40     7.74    89.50    29.01P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          24   44   +5      75.25     7.22     6.35     0.13     0.81    47.28     7.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.62     7.12    32.81     0.45     3.21    75.13    23.32P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   42   +6      71.92     6.72     9.49     0.01     0.13    29.81     5.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         26   40   +8      71.62     6.75    14.26     0.00     0.13    28.83     6.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   25   38   -2      67.41     7.08    -1.33     0.01     0.05    12.05     1.83P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford        26   33   -3      60.20     6.66    -2.83     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.29P    0.96R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   +2      63.21     7.62     2.53     0.00     0.01     6.18     1.17P    0.69R    0.00  
Yeovil           26   31   -3      56.44     6.77    -6.83     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.09P    3.93R    0.03  
Southend         26   30   -5      54.90     6.52    -9.36     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    5.67R    0.04  
Hartlepool       27   30   -9      53.47     6.40   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    8.95R    0.09  
Southampton      25   29  +13      66.31     6.95    26.67     0.00     0.02    10.39     2.96P    0.13R    0.00  
Carlisle         24   29   -4      53.07     7.06   -14.61     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.02P   12.01R    0.13  
Exeter           27   29  -10      52.78     6.54   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   10.92R    0.14  
Gillingham       26   27   -7      51.70     6.65   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   14.64R    0.24  
Leyton_Orient    25   27  -11      50.20     6.65   -20.85     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   21.92R    0.53  
Brighton         25   27  -12      50.29     6.76   -22.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   22.08R    0.45  
Oldham           25   26  -10      48.34     6.62   -18.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   30.41R    0.88  
Tranmere         25   22  -23      39.60     6.22   -41.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.79R   14.12  
Wycombe          28   20  -23      38.13     5.90   -33.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.19R   16.89  
Stockport        25   15  -27      31.85     6.03   -48.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.68R   66.45  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Aldershot vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             26   55  +33      97.99     6.08    60.22    82.67    99.13    99.99    99.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          26   46   +2      73.98     6.68     2.69     0.23    10.32    54.84    19.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   45   +2      74.06     6.95     4.30     0.24    11.25    55.82    19.80P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            23   42  +12      80.02     7.63    21.52     2.27    39.68    82.76    51.38P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   42   +6      71.31     6.46    10.89     0.06     5.16    41.91    14.47P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            24   40  +11      78.03     7.47    23.47     0.96    29.30    77.27    43.03P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            25   40   +8      71.86     7.11    12.23     0.15     8.04    45.98    17.64P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         25   39   +4      69.78     7.14     6.42     0.04     4.36    34.01    11.37P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.28     7.21    54.57    13.22    79.34    97.26    86.78P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            25   37   +6      69.94     7.16    12.49     0.03     5.10    36.77    12.96P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                26   34   +0      60.87     6.88    -2.32     0.00     0.20     5.10     1.33P    0.04R    0.00  
Port_Vale            24   33   +3      63.61     7.39     3.64     0.01     0.95    12.12     3.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.69     8.13     7.53     0.12     6.33    35.75    13.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Northampton          26   33   +0      62.26     6.79     2.44     0.00     0.26     7.25     1.96P    0.02R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   33   -1      63.36     7.01     0.59     0.00     0.51     9.98     2.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford             25   30   -6      54.20     6.84   -15.12     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.16P    0.70R    0.00  
Macclesfield         24   28   -7      53.86     7.27   -14.17     0.00     0.03     0.87     0.20P    1.11R    0.00  
Barnet               25   28   -7      52.27     6.87   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.08P    1.41R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         24   28  -12      49.43     6.68   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.04P    3.30R    0.02  
Hereford             24   26   -7      53.94     7.24   -10.71     0.00     0.02     0.72     0.19P    1.11R    0.01  
Torquay              25   25   -3      52.61     7.14    -5.63     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.14P    1.42R    0.01  
Cheltenham           26   25  -14      47.01     6.57   -23.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.51R    0.06  
Grimsby              26   19  -21      34.40     5.60   -40.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.62R    5.55  
Darlington           23   11  -37      22.32     5.12   -72.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   94.32  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2010, Altrincham vs Hayes_&_Yeading; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          28   60  +30      95.36     5.85    46.47    28.81    99.33    53.38P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         26   59  +31      99.39     6.39    51.47    61.75    99.69    73.85P    0.00     0.00  
York               27   55  +19      90.73     6.20    34.21     8.53    95.40    30.14P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   47  +12      74.40     6.56    13.98     0.05    21.03     3.16P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      28   46  +22      79.70     5.86    36.79     0.20    54.43    14.63P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          27   45   +9      78.46     6.46    20.27     0.14    43.27     8.43P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              24   43  +10      79.75     7.22    20.36     0.46    50.79    10.11P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   25   42  +13      74.38     6.84    18.90     0.06    22.98     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      27   39   +6      69.93     6.47    13.91     0.00     6.81     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       28   39   -5      61.31     6.11    -8.52     0.00     0.26     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         25   38   +6      67.56     6.95     7.87     0.00     4.56     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           28   35   -2      56.12     6.03    -6.58     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Histon             25   34   -1      60.59     6.89    -4.35     0.00     0.52     0.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   33   +4      58.21     6.23     4.85     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    28   32  -11      54.75     6.20   -14.67     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Wrexham            23   30   +1      60.74     7.54     0.70     0.00     0.81     0.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Salisbury          28   30   -4      52.97     6.08    -6.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36R    0.00  
Barrow             25   28  -12      51.72     6.84   -20.58     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.38R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    28   26  -17      42.99     5.63   -28.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.23R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   24  -26      38.84     5.24   -37.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.90R    0.19  
Forest_Green       27   23  -22      40.03     5.84   -37.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.51R    0.19  
Gateshead          27   22  -14      42.40     6.14   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.31R    0.03  
Grays_Athletic     28   17  -31      28.59     4.97   -55.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.28R    9.48  
Chester            27   -3  -18      17.48     6.17   -26.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   90.10  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1