Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 22 January 2010 at 22:18:25 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Arsenal vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal         22   48  +34      81.15     5.16    56.79    22.95    62.52    92.92    98.02    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.59     5.20    60.74    61.41    87.01    98.25    99.65    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   47  +30      79.77     5.43    48.54    15.30    47.01    87.88    96.10    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   38  +18      67.17     5.63    30.05     0.13     1.14     7.07    33.88    78.43     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.72     6.02    19.14     0.11     0.98     5.22    24.65    65.82     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   37  +14      66.37     5.51    26.61     0.07     0.80     5.13    26.50    74.30     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.82     5.98    19.36     0.04     0.51     3.33    18.60    60.97     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.60     6.00     4.27     0.00     0.02     0.19     2.26    15.71     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.25     5.94     4.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.28     3.78     0.11R    0.00  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.15     5.87    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.85     0.76R    0.04  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.79     5.93   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23     3.11R    0.28  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.37     5.37   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.40R    1.70  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      44.97     6.04   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.27     3.34R    0.39  
Wigan           20   22  -21      39.84     5.97   -36.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    18.38R    3.25  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.26     5.59   -34.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.04R    9.72  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.33     5.74   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.61R    1.57  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      31.99     5.21   -38.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.08R   29.54  
Hull            21   19  -22      33.84     5.46   -37.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.21R   18.62  
Bolton          20   18  -14      36.79     5.84   -28.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    31.74R    7.96  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.20     5.83   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.21R   26.91  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Blackpool vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        25   52  +25      95.18     6.51    46.33    67.89    89.28    99.94    93.36P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.48     6.56    33.92    12.29    43.19    98.43    63.12P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   46  +24      87.97     6.76    46.39    18.83    58.93    98.80    72.86P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          25   40   +3      69.53     6.89     5.18     0.06     0.72    36.57     8.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      74.97     7.13    26.71     0.66     4.87    70.61    22.53P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.34     7.04     5.17     0.05     0.54    31.76     5.68P    0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.51     7.51     3.81     0.08     0.84    33.01     7.01P    0.07R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.09     7.05     2.87     0.02     0.26    21.51     4.26P    0.15R    0.00  
Blackpool        25   36   +9      68.79     7.24    14.95     0.09     0.81    36.91     8.82P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      64.08     7.16     2.66     0.01     0.13    15.04     2.86P    0.35R    0.02  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.79     7.24     5.05     0.00     0.17    17.96     3.31P    0.29R    0.01  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      63.96     7.42     4.47     0.01     0.16    15.92     3.25P    0.42R    0.03  
Middlesbrough    25   32   +4      62.75     7.09     7.08     0.00     0.05    11.82     2.63P    0.55R    0.04  
Watford          25   32   -5      59.46     7.20    -7.60     0.00     0.03     5.10     0.84P    2.22R    0.20  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.39     6.64   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.11P    7.98R    0.92  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      55.12     7.14   -16.91     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.17P    7.99R    1.16  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.13     7.38    -8.00     0.00     0.01     3.04     0.47P    4.75R    0.53  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.69     6.49   -21.35     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   23.61R    3.57  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.85     7.05   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.14P   10.10R    1.30  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.33     6.81   -27.79     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   27.89R    5.61  
Sheff_Wed        25   25  -12      48.72     6.93   -20.76     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   29.57R    6.34  
Reading          25   23  -14      46.06     6.91   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   44.40R   12.65  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      42.75     6.92   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   63.40R   25.59  
Peterborough     25   18  -15      39.88     6.84   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.16R   42.04  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Oldham vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     25   57  +30      99.54     6.64    50.58    61.55    85.90    99.93    91.32P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          26   54  +31      94.50     6.37    54.07    26.22    66.20    99.70    77.70P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         26   54  +21      90.21     6.58    36.13     9.38    32.63    98.42    50.60P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       24   45  +13      84.65     7.16    27.90     2.17    10.61    90.89    31.16P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          24   44   +5      75.21     7.24     6.33     0.15     0.95    49.00     8.22P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.55     7.10    32.66     0.51     3.41    76.89    23.91P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   39   +5      71.73     6.95    10.81     0.02     0.17    31.08     5.86P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +7      69.73     6.99    12.92     0.01     0.09    22.66     4.71P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   24   35   -4      65.53     7.37    -3.75     0.00     0.02     9.17     1.33P    0.37R    0.00  
Brentford        25   33   -2      60.57     6.83    -3.48     0.00     0.00     2.26     0.40P    1.28R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   +2      63.21     7.63     2.64     0.00     0.01     6.44     1.21P    0.92R    0.00  
Hartlepool       26   30   -7      55.14     6.64   -11.31     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    6.70R    0.05  
Southampton      25   29  +13      66.08     7.05    26.21     0.00     0.01    11.18     3.24P    0.24R    0.00  
Southend         25   29   -5      55.87     6.82    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.07P    5.71R    0.05  
Exeter           26   29   -9      54.22     6.77   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    9.03R    0.07  
Yeovil           25   28   -4      54.99     7.05    -7.60     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.05P    7.97R    0.07  
Carlisle         23   28   -4      55.06     7.41   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.11P    9.07R    0.08  
Leyton_Orient    25   27  -11      50.02     6.65   -21.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    24.63R    0.48  
Brighton         25   27  -12      50.20     6.79   -22.61     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   24.77R    0.45  
Gillingham       25   26   -7      51.99     6.89   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   15.63R    0.23  
Oldham           24   26   -9      49.97     6.83   -17.51     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   24.68R    0.45  
Tranmere         24   22  -22      40.21     6.35   -42.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.45R   11.61  
Wycombe          27   19  -23      37.55     6.12   -35.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.48R   18.84  
Stockport        24   14  -27      31.37     6.18   -50.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.02R   67.61  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Macclesfield vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             25   52  +30      96.46     6.42    56.80    77.77    98.40    99.94    98.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          25   46   +3      75.22     6.96     3.60     0.66    15.73    63.15    25.17P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 25   42   +1      72.50     7.25     3.31     0.26     9.08    48.38    16.54P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   40   +9      73.55     7.34    13.85     0.42    13.10    55.85    23.90P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            22   39  +11      79.40     7.91    22.17     2.91    38.25    81.01    50.38P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   39   +5      69.43     6.76     9.42     0.06     3.72    33.28    11.16P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   38   +4      69.93     7.40     6.02     0.12     5.35    36.18    12.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.02     7.22    54.11    16.62    79.11    97.29    86.63P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            23   37  +10      76.27     7.75    22.05     0.95    23.51    70.02    36.77P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.91     7.39    12.39     0.04     4.40    33.33    11.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.74     8.12     7.65     0.17     6.52    36.88    13.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            23   32   +3      64.84     7.71     4.85     0.04     1.62    17.15     5.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Northampton          25   32   +0      63.11     7.11     3.18     0.00     0.58    10.61     3.11P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe                25   31   -3      59.68     7.06    -4.44     0.00     0.16     4.41     0.98P    0.13R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   30   -2      60.67     7.31    -2.23     0.00     0.29     6.13     1.65P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             24   30   -5      56.44     7.07   -12.39     0.00     0.06     1.80     0.41P    0.40R    0.00  
Barnet               24   28   -6      53.08     7.12   -13.74     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.16P    1.23R    0.01  
Macclesfield         23   27   -7      53.66     7.50   -15.27     0.00     0.05     1.04     0.25P    1.29R    0.02  
Hereford             23   26   -6      55.00     7.46   -10.31     0.00     0.04     1.32     0.34P    0.96R    0.02  
Torquay              24   25   -2      55.16     7.43    -2.63     0.00     0.03     1.43     0.40P    0.84R    0.01  
Cheltenham           25   25  -11      48.55     6.85   -19.91     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.99R    0.08  
Lincoln_City         23   25  -13      47.01     6.90   -26.36     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    7.53R    0.18  
Grimsby              25   19  -20      34.55     5.82   -41.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.06R    7.60  
Darlington           22   11  -34      23.29     5.44   -70.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.43R   92.09  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Chester vs Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.83     6.20    44.42    28.89    98.36    51.72P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         25   56  +27      98.00     6.70    47.98    60.73    99.33    72.47P    0.00     0.00  
York               26   52  +18      88.67     6.50    32.59     7.87    91.30    27.53P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      27   46  +23      81.64     6.19    38.60     1.04    67.42    19.50P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          26   45  +11      79.81     6.67    22.28     0.63    52.25    11.16P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          26   44   +8      72.40     6.79     9.35     0.04    14.30     2.18P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.48     7.60    19.81     0.70    44.01     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.52     7.16    15.49     0.08    16.69     2.96P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.19     6.73    13.55     0.01     8.32     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.20     6.36    -9.07     0.00     0.37     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         24   35   +5      67.03     7.28     8.41     0.00     4.81     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.69     7.29     1.33     0.00     1.93     0.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           27   34   -2      57.56     6.33    -5.21     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   33   +5      59.95     6.54     6.44     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   32  -10      55.42     6.46   -14.66     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.14R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.87     7.03   -17.84     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.87R    0.01  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.36     7.83    -1.35     0.00     0.52     0.11P    0.15R    0.00  
Salisbury          27   27   -7      50.18     6.33   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.26R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    27   25  -17      42.46     5.79   -30.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.03R    0.13  
Forest_Green       26   23  -21      40.88     6.14   -36.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.97R    0.32  
Gateshead          26   22  -13      43.78     6.50   -22.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.10R    0.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   21  -27      36.62     5.48   -38.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.45R    1.53  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.66     5.22   -52.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.77R   12.52  
Chester            26   -3  -14      19.55     6.55   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.21R   85.43  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1